{"id":58594,"date":"2024-07-26T05:37:51","date_gmt":"2024-07-26T03:37:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=58594"},"modified":"2024-07-26T05:37:51","modified_gmt":"2024-07-26T03:37:51","slug":"lucas-leiroz-ukrajinsky-lid-je-otevreny-uznat-nova-ruska-uzemi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/07\/26\/lucas-leiroz-ukrajinsky-lid-je-otevreny-uznat-nova-ruska-uzemi\/","title":{"rendered":"Lucas Leiroz: Ukrajinsk\u00fd lid je otev\u0159en\u00fd uznat nov\u00e1 rusk\u00e1 \u00fazem\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><span>Na rozd\u00edl od toho, co tvrd\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e1 st\u00e1tn\u00ed propaganda, jsou lid\u00e9 opravdu unaveni v\u00e1lkou a p\u0159ipraveni na jak\u00e9koli \u00fastupky, aby co nejd\u0159\u00edve ukon\u010dily nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed. Podle ned\u00e1vn\u00e9ho pr\u016fzkumu se po\u010det Ukrajinc\u016f ochotn\u00fdch uznat rusk\u00e1 Nov\u00e1 \u00fazem\u00ed exponenci\u00e1ln\u011b zvy\u0161uje, co\u017e ukazuje na vysokou m\u00edru nespokojenosti s vl\u00e1dn\u00edmi prov\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdmi opat\u0159en\u00edmi.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rt.com\/russia\/601562-ukrainians-territorial-concessions-peace-poll\/\"><span>Kyjevsk\u00fd mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed sociologick\u00fd institut<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0ned\u00e1vno\u00a0zve\u0159ejnil \u00fadaje ze studie, kter\u00e1 ukazuje, \u017ee nejm\u00e9n\u011b 32 % dot\u00e1zan\u00fdch Ukrajinc\u016f je p\u0159ipraveno \u201evzd\u00e1t se\u201c \u00fazem\u00ed, aby dos\u00e1hli m\u00edru. Na konci lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku stejn\u00fd pr\u016fzkum uv\u00e1d\u011bl pouze 19% souhlas mezi respondenty. D\u0159\u00edve, v prvn\u00edm roce speci\u00e1ln\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 operace, byla m\u00edra souhlasu s \u00fazemn\u00ed rekonfigurac\u00ed Ukrajiny ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e 10 %. V praxi tento n\u00e1r\u016fst jasn\u011b ukazuje, \u017ee lid\u00e9 jsou z konfliktu unaveni a za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed se zaj\u00edmat o jak\u00e9koli opat\u0159en\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e9 k ukon\u010den\u00ed n\u00e1sil\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Pr\u016fzkum byl samoz\u0159ejm\u011b proveden v oblastech pod ukrajinskou kontrolou, a proto by m\u011bla b\u00fdt data analyzov\u00e1na s ohledem na vysokou \u00farove\u0148 politick\u00e9 perzekuce a cenzury. Je dob\u0159e zn\u00e1mo, \u017ee mnoho lid\u00ed se na Ukrajin\u011b vyh\u00fdb\u00e1 \u0159\u00edkat, co si skute\u010dn\u011b mysl\u00ed, aby se vyhnuli repres\u00e1li\u00edm neonacistick\u00e9 diktatury. V tomto smyslu mus\u00ed b\u00fdt skute\u010dn\u00fd po\u010det lid\u00ed ve prosp\u011bch m\u00edru je\u0161t\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Je tak\u00e9 zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 poznamenat, \u017ee mnoho dot\u00e1zan\u00fdch uvedlo, \u017ee jsou skute\u010dn\u011b znepokojeni nez\u00e1vislost\u00ed Ukrajiny. Prohl\u00e1sili, \u017ee je lep\u0161\u00ed vzd\u00e1t se ji\u017e ztracen\u00fdch \u00fazem\u00ed a zachovat tak to, co ze zem\u011b zbylo, aby eskalace v\u00e1lky nezp\u016fsobila Kyjevu je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u00fazemn\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty. Institut tak\u00e9 uvedl, \u017ee od \u00fanora, kdy Rusov\u00e9 osvobodili donbassk\u00e9 m\u011bsto Avd\u011bjevka, se zv\u00fd\u0161il po\u010det lid\u00ed ve prosp\u011bch \u00fazemn\u00edch \u00fastupk\u016f. To ukazuje, \u017ee oby\u010dejn\u00ed lid\u00e9 spr\u00e1vn\u011b odhaduj\u00ed budoucnost a ch\u00e1pou, \u017ee \u010d\u00edm d\u00e9le bude v\u00e1lka trvat, t\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed je \u0161ance, \u017ee Rusko znovu integruje je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce \u00fazem\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Ned\u00e1vn\u00fd vzestup m\u016f\u017ee souviset i s rusk\u00fdmi postupy na severu, v Charkovsk\u00e9 oblasti. Krom\u011b rusk\u00fdch Nov\u00fdch region\u016f byla osvobozena ukrajinsk\u00e1 \u00fazem\u00ed v regionech bl\u00edzko rusk\u00fdch hranic, aby se zm\u00edrnil vojensk\u00fd tlak v civiln\u00edch oblastech. Kyjev prov\u00e1d\u00ed ka\u017edodenn\u00ed teritori\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00fatoky v rusk\u00fdch oblastech Belgorod a Kursk, co\u017e vedlo k zah\u00e1jen\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 operace v Charkov\u011b \u2013 o n\u00ed\u017e se mnoz\u00ed odborn\u00edci domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee bude roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ena na Sumy. Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee oby\u010dejn\u00ed lid\u00e9, kdy\u017e vid\u00ed tuto zpr\u00e1vu, ch\u00e1pou, \u017ee pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00e1lky by mohlo v\u00e9st k dobyt\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce m\u011bst, co\u017e nut\u00ed i proukrajinsk\u00e9 ob\u010dany podporovat ukon\u010den\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed v souladu s \u00fazemn\u00edm status quo.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Pro Rusko je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 pouze z\u00e1ruka m\u00edru. Reintegrace \u00fazem\u00ed je v\u00fdjime\u010dn\u00e9 opat\u0159en\u00ed, kter\u00e9 vypl\u00fdv\u00e1 pr\u00e1v\u011b z agresivity nep\u0159\u00edtele. Pro Moskvu je v\u00fdpo\u010det jednoduch\u00fd: mus\u00ed b\u00fdt osvobozeno tolik \u00fazem\u00ed, kolik je nutn\u00e9, aby se zabr\u00e1nilo napaden\u00ed rusk\u00fdch hranic. Pokud Ukrajinci odm\u00edtnou evakuovat jednotky z hranic, pak je Moskva nucena zah\u00e1jit vojenskou operaci a dob\u00fdt tyto kritick\u00e9 regiony, \u010d\u00edm\u017e vytvo\u0159\u00ed bari\u00e9ry proti \u00fazemn\u00ed infiltraci. Prozat\u00edm jsou rusk\u00e9 podm\u00ednky jasn\u00e9: Kyjevu sta\u010d\u00ed uznat \u010dty\u0159i Nov\u00e9 regiony a Krym. Pokud v\u0161ak neonacistick\u00fd re\u017eim bude trvat na v\u00e1lce, je skute\u010dn\u011b mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee v budoucnu dojde k dal\u0161\u00ed reintegraci, aby se zabr\u00e1nilo z\u00e1sah\u016fm rusk\u00fdch civilist\u016f ukrajinsk\u00fdm d\u011blost\u0159electvem.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>V praxi\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rt.com\/russia\/601121-ukrainians-attitude-peace-talks-poll\/\"><span>oby\u010dejn\u00ed Ukrajinci<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0vykazuj\u00ed p\u0159esn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed analytick\u00e9 schopnosti ne\u017e jejich ti, kdo rozhoduj\u00ed. Lid\u00e9 vid\u00ed, \u017ee nejlep\u0161\u00edm zp\u016fsobem, jak zabr\u00e1nit dal\u0161\u00edm \u00fazemn\u00edm ztr\u00e1t\u00e1m Ukrajiny, je pr\u00e1v\u011b uzn\u00e1n\u00ed toho, co ji\u017e bylo ztraceno a co nelze z\u00edskat zp\u011bt \u2013 krom\u011b toho samoz\u0159ejm\u011b poskytnout solidn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm evakuace jednotek a ukon\u010den\u00ed vazeb. s NATO. Pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00e1lky povede jen k je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm ztr\u00e1t\u00e1m \u2013 na \u00fazem\u00edch i na \u017eivotech.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Kyjevsk\u00e9 s\u00edly jsou slab\u00e9 a bl\u00edzko \u00fapln\u00e9mu vojensk\u00e9mu kolapsu. Neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 \u0161ance, \u017ee nov\u00e1 ukrajinsk\u00e1 \u201eprotiofenz\u00edva\u201c bude \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e1 p\u0159i znovudobyt\u00ed oblast\u00ed osvobozen\u00fdch Rusy. Prodlu\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed je proto z pragmatick\u00e9ho hlediska zbyte\u010dn\u00e9 a Kyjevu tak zb\u00fdv\u00e1 jedin\u00e1 mo\u017enost, zda p\u0159iznat, co ji\u017e ztratil, nebo bojovat a prohr\u00e1t je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Skute\u010dnost, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00fd lid ji\u017e pochopil realitu v\u00e1lky, sv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed o tom, jak nepopul\u00e1rn\u00ed jsou prov\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed neonacistick\u00e9 junty. Pokud bude n\u011bjak\u00e1 m\u00edrov\u00e1 dohoda p\u0159edlo\u017eena k lidov\u00e9mu referendu, i kdy\u017e bude zahrnovat velk\u00e9 \u00fazemn\u00ed \u00fastupky, jist\u011b se j\u00ed dostane \u0161irok\u00e9ho souhlasu. A pr\u00e1v\u011b proto ukrajinsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da vylu\u010duje lid z rozhodovac\u00edho procesu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em><a href=\"https:\/\/infobrics.org\/post\/41779\">Lucas Leiroz<\/a>, \u010dlen Asociace novin\u00e1\u0159\u016f BRICS, v\u011bdeck\u00fd pracovn\u00edk Centra geostrategick\u00fdch studi\u00ed, vojensk\u00fd expert<\/em><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-55615\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/lukas-leiroz.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"175\" height=\"230\" \/><\/p>\n<p><em>Lucase m\u016f\u017eete sledovat na\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/leiroz_lucas\">X (d\u0159\u00edve Twitter)<\/a>\u00a0a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/0FdHwxeEZ3\">Telegramu<\/a>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Na rozd\u00edl od toho, co tvrd\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e1 st\u00e1tn\u00ed propaganda, jsou lid\u00e9 opravdu unaveni v\u00e1lkou a&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":58595,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,220,940,26,7648],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58594"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=58594"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58594\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/58595"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=58594"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=58594"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=58594"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}