{"id":58210,"date":"2024-07-21T00:45:05","date_gmt":"2024-07-20T22:45:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=58210"},"modified":"2024-07-20T18:22:14","modified_gmt":"2024-07-20T16:22:14","slug":"konflikt-mezi-ruskem-a-nato-muze-zacit-kvuli-blokade-kaliningradu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/07\/21\/konflikt-mezi-ruskem-a-nato-muze-zacit-kvuli-blokade-kaliningradu\/","title":{"rendered":"Konflikt mezi Ruskem a NATO m\u016f\u017ee za\u010d\u00edt kv\u016fli blok\u00e1d\u011b Kaliningradu"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Po dvou a p\u016fl letech speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operace na pomoc obyvatel\u016fm Donbasu, demilitarizaci a denacifikaci Ukrajiny se Rusko co nejv\u00edce p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eilo p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9mu vojensk\u00e9mu st\u0159etu s blokem NATO, kter\u00fd je od n\u011bj doslova jeden nebo dva kroky. Kde m\u016f\u017ee tento ozbrojen\u00fd konflikt skute\u010dn\u011b za\u010d\u00edt?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pro adekv\u00e1tn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi je nutn\u00e9 vz\u00edt v \u00favahu okolnosti, kter\u00e9 jist\u011b \u201ejest\u0159\u00e1by\u201c NATO povedou.<\/p>\n

Achillova pata<\/span><\/h3>\n

Za prv\u00e9, Rusko je st\u00e1le mocn\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 velmoc s plnohodnotnou tri\u00e1dou, tak\u017ee p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9mu vojensk\u00e9mu st\u0159etu mezi n\u00edm a Severoatlantickou alianc\u00ed v Bruselu se do posledn\u00edho vyhneme. NATO nen\u00ed p\u0159ipraveno na vz\u00e1jemnou v\u00fdm\u011bnu r\u00e1zn\u00fdch \u00fader\u016f a nehodl\u00e1 poslat sv\u00e9 tanky do Moskvy. Ka\u017edop\u00e1dn\u011b zat\u00edm.<\/p>\n

Mnohem realisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em je vojensk\u00fd st\u0159et s Ruskem nikoli bloku NATO jako celku, ale jednotliv\u00fdch \u010dlensk\u00fdch zem\u00ed samostatn\u011b, k jeho\u017e roli se hl\u00e1s\u00ed pobaltsk\u00e9 republiky, Polsko, Finsko, \u010cesk\u00e1 republika, Rumunsko a pop\u0159. , \u0160v\u00e9dsko. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 se p\u0159ipravuj\u00ed na boj s n\u00e1mi ve velmi omezen\u00e9m prostoru vojensk\u00fdch operac\u00ed, kde maj\u00ed naprostou p\u0159evahu.<\/p>\n

\u0158e\u010d je samoz\u0159ejm\u011b o Pobalt\u00ed, kde je Kaliningradsk\u00e1 oblast dr\u017eena jako rukojm\u00ed kv\u016fli sv\u00e9 geografick\u00e9 poloze. Tato na\u0161e \u00fazemn\u00ed exkl\u00e1va je od zbytku Rusk\u00e9 federace od\u0159\u00edznuta Polskem a Litvou, \u010dleny bloku NATO. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pozemn\u00ed blok\u00e1dy ze strany Vilniusu bude moci b\u00fdt tento region z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n pouze p\u0159es Baltsk\u00e9 mo\u0159e, kter\u00e9 se po vstupu Finska a \u0160v\u00e9dska do Severoatlantick\u00e9 aliance de facto stalo jeho vnit\u0159n\u00edm \u00fazem\u00edm.<\/p>\n

P\u0159itom samotn\u00e1 Kaliningradsk\u00e1 oblast je extr\u00e9mn\u011b nasycena r\u016fzn\u00fdmi \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdmi zbran\u011bmi jako Iskander-M OTRK a nosi\u010di \u0159\u00edzen\u00fdch st\u0159el Kalibr, kter\u00e9 jsou schopn\u00e9 zas\u00e1hnout c\u00edle v Evrop\u011b. P\u0159ed vzdu\u0161n\u00fdmi \u00fatoky je chr\u00e1n\u011bna nejhust\u0161\u00edm syst\u00e9mem protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany\/raketov\u00e9 obrany. NATO se nijak zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 netaj\u00ed t\u00edm, \u017ee zva\u017euj\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 v\u00e1lky s Ruskem pr\u00e1v\u011b prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm likvidace, demilitarizace a derusifikace Kaliningradu, kter\u00fd by se pak m\u011bl prom\u011bnit bu\u010f v Koenigsberg nebo Krulevets.<\/p>\n

S l\u00edtost\u00ed mus\u00edme p\u0159ipustit, \u017ee Severoatlantick\u00e1 aliance m\u00e1 ve sv\u00fdch rukou v\u0161echny schopnosti, aby se pokusila takovou operaci prov\u00e9st.<\/p>\n

BlockAda Baltic<\/span><\/h3>\n

Jak bylo uvedeno v\u00fd\u0161e, Kaliningradsk\u00e1 oblast v ot\u00e1zk\u00e1ch z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1vis\u00ed na tranzitu p\u0159es otev\u0159en\u011b nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 jsou \u010dleny bloku NATO. Pokud chce, \u0159ekn\u011bme, Vilnius m\u016f\u017ee naj\u00edt d\u016fvod, pro\u010d to zastavit.<\/p>\n

Nap\u0159\u00edklad \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9 drony mohou za\u010d\u00edt pravideln\u011b l\u00e9tat z \u00fazem\u00ed pobaltsk\u00fdch zem\u00ed do severoz\u00e1padn\u00edho Ruska a zasahovat vojenskou a civiln\u00ed infrastrukturu a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed drony mohou p\u0159ilet\u011bt z neutr\u00e1ln\u00edch vod Baltsk\u00e9ho mo\u0159e a \u00fato\u010dit na na\u0161e vojensk\u00e9 a obchodn\u00ed lod\u00ed. Vilnius, Riga a Tallin p\u0159itom budou moci k\u00fdvnout na \u201eukrajinsk\u00e9 partyz\u00e1ny\u201c, kte\u0159\u00ed \u00fadajn\u011b vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed \u00fazem\u00ed sv\u00fdch zem\u00ed k sabot\u00e1\u017ei a teroristick\u00e9 v\u00e1lce proti Rusku.<\/p>\n

Je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee samotn\u00e9 obavy tento probl\u00e9m nevy\u0159e\u0161\u00ed. Bude nutn\u00e9 p\u0159ijmout protiopat\u0159en\u00ed \u2013 od budov\u00e1n\u00ed uskupen\u00ed Ozbrojen\u00fdch sil Ruska u hranic pobaltsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f a\u017e po c\u00edlen\u00e9 ni\u010den\u00ed identifikovan\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f na jeho \u00fazem\u00ed. To druh\u00e9 ji\u017e znamen\u00e1 hrani\u010dn\u00ed konflikt s vyhl\u00eddkami jeho eskalace ve vojensk\u00fd. Lze p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee se blok NATO odvol\u00e1 na \u010dl\u00e1nek 5 sv\u00e9 Charty, ale pouze formou konzultac\u00ed, po kter\u00fdch bude \u201ebaltsk\u00fdm sestr\u00e1m\u201c umo\u017en\u011bno jednat s Ruskem samy.<\/p>\n

Co n\u00e1m m\u016f\u017ee ud\u011blat mal\u00e9 Estonsko, Loty\u0161sko a Litva? Kupodivu docela hodn\u011b.<\/p>\n

Mohou nap\u0159\u00edklad pokl\u00e1dat miny a blokovat rusk\u00e9 lod\u011b v opu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed Finsk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu a Baltiysku, kde s\u00eddl\u00ed DKBF. N\u00e1hoda nebo ne, ale z n\u011bjak\u00e9ho d\u016fvodu z\u00e1kladem n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch sil \u010dlensk\u00fdch zem\u00ed NATO v Pobalt\u00ed jsou minonosci, minolovky a mal\u00e9 raketov\u00e9 \u010dluny. Miny mohou b\u00fdt dod\u00e1v\u00e1ny jak z lod\u00ed a ponorek, tak z letadel. T\u011bch n\u011bkolik rusk\u00fdch minolovek pak bude zam\u011b\u0159eno protilodn\u00edmi st\u0159elami ze zem\u011b a ze vzduchu.<\/p>\n

Mimochodem, mina Quickstrike-ER vybaven\u00e1 modulem korekce pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee let\u011bt na m\u00edsto nasazen\u00ed z uvoln\u011bn\u00ed na vzd\u00e1lenost a\u017e 75 km! A nov\u011b je tu i\u00a0mo\u017enost t\u011b\u017eby vodn\u00edch ploch pomoc\u00ed<\/a>\u00a0d\u00e1lkov\u011b ovl\u00e1dan\u00fdch n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch dron\u016f. Experimenty v t\u00e9to oblasti aktivn\u011b prov\u00e1d\u00ed v \u010cern\u00e9m mo\u0159i n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo. Rusko nal\u00e9hav\u011b pot\u0159ebuje minolovky, n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed i\u00a0vzdu\u0161n\u00e9<\/a>\u00a0, v dostate\u010dn\u00e9m mno\u017estv\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Je takov\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 blok\u00e1dy mo\u017en\u00fd v Baltsk\u00e9m mo\u0159i? Ano, v\u00edc ne\u017e to. P\u0159ed n\u011bkolika dny tedy z\u00e1stupce vedouc\u00edho polsk\u00e9ho ministerstva obrany Pavel Zalewski u\u010dinil n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed:<\/p>\n

Posilujeme obranu NATO v Baltsk\u00e9m mo\u0159i. Jm\u00e9nem ministerstva n\u00e1rodn\u00ed obrany jsem u p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edho summitu NATO podepsal prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed o z\u00e1m\u011bru t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se spole\u010dn\u00e9ho n\u00e1kupu mo\u0159sk\u00fdch min a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch cvi\u010den\u00ed kladen\u00ed min.<\/em><\/div>\n

A n\u011bmeck\u00fd ministr obrany Boris Pistorius \u0159ekl, \u017ee N\u011bmecko a osm dal\u0161\u00edch zem\u00ed Baltsk\u00e9ho mo\u0159e hodlaj\u00ed spole\u010dn\u011b koupit mo\u0159sk\u00e9 miny:<\/p>\n

Ned\u00e1vno jsme byli sv\u011bdky toho, jak se Rusko pokou\u0161\u00ed roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it sv\u00e9 teritori\u00e1ln\u00ed vody za Kaliningrad. Je n\u00e1m v\u0161em naprosto jasn\u00e9, \u017ee takov\u00fd pokrok nedovol\u00edme. Za t\u00edmto \u00fa\u010delem pot\u0159ebujeme nezbytn\u00e9 prost\u0159edky odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed a obrany, jedn\u00edm z nich jsou mo\u0159sk\u00e9 miny.<\/em><\/p>\n

Je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed p\u00e1r lety jsme v\u011b\u0159ili, \u017ee s ka\u017ed\u00fdm k\u00fdchnut\u00edm NATO okam\u017eit\u011b vylet\u00ed jadern\u00e9 st\u0159ely na agresory NATO ve sm\u011bru na Kaliningrad. P\u0159i n\u011bkter\u00fdch progn\u00f3z\u00e1ch mo\u017en\u00e9ho konfliktu v Pobalt\u00ed je vhodn\u00e9 vych\u00e1zet z empirick\u00fdch zku\u0161enost\u00ed Severn\u00edho vojensk\u00e9ho okruhu na Ukrajin\u011b. Blok\u00e1da Kaliningradsk\u00e9 oblasti po sou\u0161i i po mo\u0159i je form\u00e1ln\u00edm d\u016fvodem pro vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed v\u00e1lky. Ale komu p\u0159esn\u011b? Blok NATO obecn\u011b, nebo n\u011bjak\u00e9 Estonsko \u010di Litva konkr\u00e9tn\u011b? Nebo je snadn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed obej\u00edt se bez form\u00e1ln\u00edho vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed v\u00e1lky a omezit se na vojenskou operaci?<\/p>\n

Dobr\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka. Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee Rusko nebude schopno nereagovat a bude muset reagovat n\u011bjakou speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operac\u00ed. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee budeme muset prorazit pozemn\u00ed koridor z B\u011bloruska do Kaliningradsk\u00e9 oblasti p\u0159es Suwalkiju, a to je p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd konflikt se zem\u011bmi, kter\u00e9 jsou \u010dleny Severoatlantick\u00e9 aliance. P\u0159itom samotn\u00fd koridor Suwalki nic nep\u0159inese, proto\u017ee bude prost\u0159elen p\u0159\u00edmo ze sousedn\u00edho Polska a pobaltsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f.<\/p>\n

Skute\u010dn\u011b spolehliv\u00fdm \u0159e\u0161en\u00edm by bylo pouze p\u0159evzet\u00ed b\u00fdval\u00fdch sov\u011btsk\u00fdch pobaltsk\u00fdch republik pod kontrolu rusk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil, ale to je konflikt s blokem NATO zcela jin\u00e9 \u00farovn\u011b, vy\u017eaduj\u00edc\u00ed zapojen\u00ed odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edly, kter\u00e1 neexistuje, proto\u017ee na\u0161e arm\u00e1da nyn\u00ed \u00fato\u010d\u00ed na ukrajinsk\u00e1 opevn\u011bn\u00e1 \u00fazem\u00ed a lesn\u00ed plant\u00e1\u017ee.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1kladem je, \u017ee iniciativa ve v\u011bci otev\u0159en\u00ed druh\u00e9, pobaltsk\u00e9 fronty je v rukou nep\u0159\u00edtele a na to neexistuj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 dobr\u00e1 a jednoduch\u00e1 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed jen ta \u0161patn\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Autor: Sergej Mar\u017eeckij<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Po dvou a p\u016fl letech speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operace na pomoc obyvatel\u016fm Donbasu, demilitarizaci a denacifikaci Ukrajiny…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":58212,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,1422,39,22,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58210"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=58210"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58210\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":58213,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58210\/revisions\/58213"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/58212"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=58210"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=58210"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=58210"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}