{"id":57550,"date":"2024-07-11T00:49:54","date_gmt":"2024-07-10T22:49:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=57550"},"modified":"2024-07-11T05:03:33","modified_gmt":"2024-07-11T03:03:33","slug":"jiri-paroubek-muzeme-brat-vazne-vysledky-pruzkumu-median","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/07\/11\/jiri-paroubek-muzeme-brat-vazne-vysledky-pruzkumu-median\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek: M\u016f\u017eeme br\u00e1t v\u00e1\u017en\u011b v\u00fdsledky pr\u016fzkumu Median?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Agentura Median pat\u0159\u00ed u n\u00e1s k mainstreamov\u00fdm agentur\u00e1m pro v\u00fdzkum ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed. Alespo\u0148 podle m\u00e9ho n\u00e1zoru se p\u0159ed volbami do Evropsk\u00e9ho parlamentu prok\u00e1zalo, \u017ee mainstremov\u00e9 agentury pro v\u00fdzkum ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed jsou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed z\u00e1kulisn\u00edho mocensk\u00e9ho uskupen\u00ed, kter\u00e9 ur\u010duje, s k\u00fdm se v \u010desk\u00e9 politice m\u00e1 po\u010d\u00edtat a s k\u00fdm nikoliv. O kom pr\u016fzkumy ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed nemluv\u00ed, ten jako by nebyl. V\u00fdzkumn\u00e9 agentury, ale zejm\u00e9na mainstreamov\u00e1 m\u00e9dia, kter\u00e1 pak dovedn\u011b pracuj\u00ed s ciframi prefabrikovan\u00fdmi mainstreamovan\u00fdmi agenturami pro v\u00fdzkum ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed, se sna\u017e\u00ed de facto \u010desk\u00e9mu voli\u010di \u201ezjednodu\u0161it \u017eivot\u201c. Vlastn\u011b mu d\u00e1vaj\u00ed doporu\u010den\u00ed (nab\u00e1daj\u00ed ho), koho m\u00e1 volit a koho naopak volit nem\u00e1.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Je zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed, \u017ee pr\u016fzkum agentury Median zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00fd 10. \u010dervence byl prakticky prov\u00e1d\u011bn (sb\u011br dat od respondent\u016f) ve dnech 6. \u2013 31. kv\u011btna. Nev\u00edm, jestli si chlapci v\u00a0Medianu pak dali celoz\u00e1vodn\u00ed dovolenou anebo, co se stalo tak z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e9ho, \u017ee pr\u016fzkum byl zve\u0159ejn\u011bn s\u00a0n\u011bkolikat\u00fddenn\u00edm zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00edm po ukon\u010den\u00ed sb\u011bru dat. To vzbuzuje jistou pochybnost o validit\u011b takov\u00e9ho pr\u016fzkumu.<\/p>\n

Podle kv\u011btnov\u00e9ho volebn\u00edho modelu Medianu celkem nep\u0159ekvapiv\u011b vede s\u00a033% volebn\u00edch preferenc\u00ed hnut\u00ed ANO. Ale pokud se pod\u00edv\u00e1me na souhrn preferenc\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e9 opozice, tedy hnut\u00ed ANO a SPD (40,5 %), zjist\u00edme, \u017ee \u010dty\u0159i vl\u00e1dn\u00ed strany, kter\u00e9 by z\u00edskaly ve volb\u00e1ch do sn\u011bmovny v\u00a0kv\u011btnu v\u00edce ne\u017e 5% hlas\u016f (ODS, Pir\u00e1ti, STAN a TOP 09) maj\u00ed v\u00a0souhrnu 40,5% preferenc\u00ed. A to je\u0161t\u011b maj\u00ed v z\u00e1loze k\u00a0dispozici 2% preferenc\u00ed KDU-\u010cSL. V\u00fdsledky lidovc\u016f jsou sice hrou mal\u00fdch \u010d\u00edsel, ale pokud bychom je p\u0159i\u010detli k\u00a0preferenc\u00edm \u010dty\u0159 preferen\u010dn\u011b \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011bj\u0161\u00edch vl\u00e1dn\u00edch stran, dostali bychom se v\u00a0souhrnu nad sou\u010det preferenc\u00ed hnut\u00ed ANO a hnut\u00ed SPD. To je absurdn\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Jednak je to v\u00a0rozporu s\u00a0volebn\u00edmi v\u00fdsledky, kter\u00fdch strany dos\u00e1hly ve volb\u00e1ch do Evropsk\u00e9ho parlamentu. A d\u00e1le je to v\u00a0rozporu se v\u0161emi mo\u017en\u00fdmi pr\u016fzkumy, kter\u00e9 zji\u0161\u0165uj\u00ed n\u00e1zorovou hladinu obyvatelstva, pokud jde o spokojenost s\u00a0vl\u00e1dou, s\u00a0politickou a ekonomickou situac\u00ed v\u00a0zemi atd.. Je to vlastn\u011b poprv\u00e9, co p\u00ed\u0161u \u010di \u0159\u00edk\u00e1m, \u017ee ur\u010dit\u00fd pr\u016fzkum \u2013 v\u00a0tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pr\u016fzkum Medianu \u2013 je nejsp\u00ed\u0161 vycucan\u00fd z\u00a0prstu. Mimochodem, rozlo\u017een\u00ed poslaneck\u00fdch mand\u00e1t\u016f ve sn\u011bmovn\u011b po volb\u00e1ch, pokud by tyto prob\u011bhly v\u00a0kv\u011btnu, by bylo 101 mand\u00e1t\u016f pro strany sou\u010dasn\u00e9 opozice a 99 mand\u00e1t\u016f pro 4 strany vl\u00e1dn\u00ed (a lidovci jsou je\u0161t\u011b v\u00a0z\u00e1loze pro spole\u010dnou kandid\u00e1tku).<\/p>\n

Pokud bych m\u011bl br\u00e1t tento pr\u016fzkum ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed v\u00e1\u017en\u011b, znamenalo by to, \u017ee s\u00a0ohledem na trval\u00fd sesun volebn\u00edch preferenc\u00ed hnut\u00ed SPD ( voli\u010di SPD z\u0159ejm\u011b postupn\u011b odch\u00e1zej\u00ed k mimoparlamentn\u00edm stran\u00e1m), mus\u00ed hnut\u00ed ANO pro p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed volby do sn\u011bmovny a zejm\u00e9na po volb\u00e1ch do sn\u011bmovny m\u00edt je\u0161t\u011b jednoho koali\u010dn\u00edho partnera.<\/p>\n

T\u00edm m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt alternativn\u011b bu\u010f formace \u201e\u010desk\u00e9 levice\u201c anebo P\u0159\u00edsaha, v\u010detn\u011b Motorist\u016f. Ov\u0161em sn\u011bmovn\u00ed volby jsou jinou sout\u011b\u017e\u00ed ne\u017eli volby Evropsk\u00e9. Bude v\u00a0nich v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u00fa\u010dast a budou zejm\u00e9na jin\u00e1 t\u00e9mata a osoby a obsazen\u00ed jednotliv\u00fdch kandid\u00e1tek. I pro komunistickou stranu to mus\u00ed b\u00fdt ur\u010dit\u00e9 procitnut\u00ed ze sna po vele\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch do EP, \u017ee najednou m\u00e1 jen 4% volebn\u00edch preferenc\u00ed.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0tomto punktu se, podle m\u00e9ho n\u00e1zoru, pr\u016fzkum ale bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed realit\u011b, o\u010dek\u00e1val jsem to. Pokud bych volby p\u0159irovnal k \u010desk\u00fdm nebo kanadsk\u00fdm hokejov\u00fdm sout\u011b\u017e\u00edm, pak eurovolby, volby do krajsk\u00fdch zastupitelstev a volby do Sen\u00e1tu, jsou tou z\u00e1kladn\u00ed sout\u011b\u017e\u00ed. A volby do sn\u011bmovny jsou jakousi nadstavbou, tedy bojem typu play-off. Z\u00a0tohoto hlediska, pokud levice chce b\u00fdt v\u00a0p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch volb\u00e1ch \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e1 a hr\u00e1t roli de facto jednoho chyb\u011bj\u00edc\u00edho koali\u010dn\u00edho partnera hnut\u00ed ANO, – kter\u00e9 se podle m\u00e9ho n\u00e1zoru se sv\u00fdm volebn\u00edm v\u00fdsledkem nedostane p\u0159es 35% – mus\u00ed se spojit. To by ov\u0161em znamenalo, \u017ee SOCDEM Lidov\u00e9ho domu mus\u00ed ukon\u010dit sv\u00e9 vazby na \u201emoderniz\u00e1tora\u201c soci\u00e1ln\u00ed demokracie Bartu a p\u0159ihl\u00e1sit se jednozna\u010dn\u011b k\u00a0vl\u00e1dn\u00ed nebo nevl\u00e1dn\u00ed \u00fa\u010dasti ve vl\u00e1d\u011b, sestavovan\u00e9 pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fdm v\u00edt\u011bzem p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch sn\u011bmovn\u00edch voleb, hnut\u00edm ANO. A samoz\u0159ejm\u011b d\u00e1t si pro to i ur\u010dit\u00e9 podm\u00ednky. Mus\u00ed p\u0159estat hr\u00e1t roli antibabi\u0161ovsk\u00e9 formace ochotn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b vstoupit do koalice s pravic\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Volby ve Francii uk\u00e1zaly, \u017ee jedinou cestou k \u00fasp\u011bchu levice ve volb\u00e1ch je, pokud dojde k\u00a0jej\u00edmu alian\u010dn\u00edmu p\u0159edvolebn\u00edmu spojen\u00ed. Tedy, aby pro ka\u017ed\u00fd volebn\u00ed obvod (ve Francii) m\u011bly r\u016fzn\u00e9 strany levice jen jednoho dohodnut\u00e9ho kandid\u00e1ta a toho masivn\u011b podpo\u0159ily. U n\u00e1s by toto muselo platit pro krajsk\u00e9 kandid\u00e1tky…<\/p>\n

Ch\u00e1pu, \u017ee rozlou\u010dit se s\u00a0bludy a chim\u00e9rami tak, jak to mus\u00ed u\u010dinit budouc\u00ed veden\u00ed SOCDEM (po sjezdu), bude n\u011bkdy bolestiv\u00e9 a nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00e9. Tak\u00e9 komunist\u00e9 mus\u00ed pochopit, \u017ee volby do sn\u011bmovny jsou \u00fapln\u011b jinou ligou ne\u017eli volby do EP. A z\u00a0toho vypl\u00fdv\u00e1 pot\u0159eba spojit v\u0161echny levicov\u00e9 s\u00edly p\u0159ed volbami v\u00a0jeden proud.<\/p>\n

Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Agentura Median pat\u0159\u00ed u n\u00e1s k mainstreamov\u00fdm agentur\u00e1m pro v\u00fdzkum ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed. Alespo\u0148 podle m\u00e9ho…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":57210,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[5960,1503,5045,620,27],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57550"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57550"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57550\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/57210"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57550"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57550"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57550"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}