{"id":57541,"date":"2024-07-11T00:51:11","date_gmt":"2024-07-10T22:51:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=57541"},"modified":"2024-07-10T16:52:52","modified_gmt":"2024-07-10T14:52:52","slug":"lucas-leiroz-polsko-se-chysta-primo-zucastnit-ukrajinskeho-konfliktu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/07\/11\/lucas-leiroz-polsko-se-chysta-primo-zucastnit-ukrajinskeho-konfliktu\/","title":{"rendered":"Lucas Leiroz: Polsko se chyst\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edmo z\u00fa\u010dastnit ukrajinsk\u00e9ho konfliktu"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Polsko se chyst\u00e1 ud\u011blat nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd krok v ukrajinsk\u00e9m konfliktu. Vladimir Zelenskyj uvedl, \u017ee podle podm\u00ednek ned\u00e1vno podepsan\u00e9ho paktu mezi Kyjevem a Var\u0161avou by zem\u011b NATO mohla pou\u017e\u00edt sv\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edly k zadr\u017een\u00ed rusk\u00fdch raket a dron\u016f v ukrajinsk\u00e9m vzdu\u0161n\u00e9m prostoru. Takovou situaci by Rusov\u00e9 mohli pova\u017eovat za p\u0159\u00edpad p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dasti, vedouc\u00ed k otev\u0159en\u00e9 v\u00e1lce mezi Ruskem a zem\u00ed NATO.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pakt<\/span><\/a>\u00a0podle Zelensk\u00e9ho vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed nezbytn\u00e9 podm\u00ednky pro to, aby Var\u0161ava m\u011bla pozice uvnit\u0159 Ukrajiny a p\u0159\u00edmo se pod\u00edlela na roli protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany, a pom\u00e1h\u00e1 tak Kyjevu p\u0159ekonat jednu z jeho sou\u010dasn\u00fdch hlavn\u00edch strategick\u00fdch obt\u00ed\u017e\u00ed. Vzdu\u0161n\u00fd prostor v z\u00f3n\u011b konfliktu je po dlouhou dobu t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 zcela pod kontrolou Ruska, co\u017e ze z\u00e1padem dod\u00e1van\u00fdch tank\u016f a vojensk\u00fdch vozidel Ukrajiny u\u010dinilo snadn\u00e9 c\u00edle rusk\u00fdch dron\u016f, raket a letadel. Kyjev se ze v\u0161ech sil sna\u017e\u00ed tento probl\u00e9m vy\u0159e\u0161it, proto\u017ee bez siln\u00e9 kapacity protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany je nemo\u017en\u00e9, aby jedna strana dos\u00e1hla jak\u00fdchkoli vojensk\u00fdch zisk\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

V tomto smyslu se Kyjev p\u0159i hled\u00e1n\u00ed zp\u016fsob\u016f, jak zvr\u00e1tit kolaps sv\u00e9 protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany, sna\u017eil o p\u0159\u00edmou spolupr\u00e1ci se z\u00e1padn\u00edmi partnery. Tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159\u00a0<\/span>nemo\u017enosti vstupu do NATO<\/span><\/a>\u00a0nebo vta\u017een\u00ed atlantick\u00e9 aliance do konfliktu v sou\u010dasnosti Ukrajina s\u00e1z\u00ed na podeps\u00e1n\u00ed bilater\u00e1ln\u00edch dohod s co nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm po\u010dtem \u010dlen\u016f NATO a podnik\u00e1 v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 kroky k tomu, aby tyto zem\u011b zah\u00e1jily typ \u201ep\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 intervence\u201c na individu\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00farovni. . V tomto smyslu lze obrann\u00fd pakt mezi Kyjevem a Var\u0161avou vn\u00edmat jako zp\u016fsob, jak m\u016f\u017ee Ukrajina vyu\u017e\u00edt je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce softwaru a jednotek NATO ke zlep\u0161en\u00ed sv\u00fdch pozic na zemi, ani\u017e by v\u0161ak alianci ofici\u00e1ln\u011b zapojila.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201e[Dohoda] stanov\u00ed v\u00fdvoj mechanismu [pro Polsko] k sest\u0159elen\u00ed rusk\u00fdch raket a bezpilotn\u00edch letoun\u016f odp\u00e1len\u00fdch ve vzdu\u0161n\u00e9m prostoru Ukrajiny ve sm\u011bru na Polsko (\u2026) [Budeme spole\u010dn\u011b pracovat na tom, jak rychle implementovat tento bod,\u201c \u0159ekl.<\/span><\/p>\n

Polsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r Donald Tusk potvrdil Zelensk\u00e9ho o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed a prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee podm\u00ednky dohody skute\u010dn\u011b stanovuj\u00ed podm\u00ednky p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ce s t\u00edm, \u017ee Polsko je opr\u00e1vn\u011bno ve\u0159ejn\u011b pou\u017e\u00edt svou vojenskou techniku \u200b\u200bna ukrajinsk\u00e9 p\u016fd\u011b proti Rus\u016fm. Zd\u00e1 se v\u0161ak, \u017ee Tusk je znepokojen m\u00edrou \u00fa\u010dasti NATO na takov\u00fdch man\u00e9vrech, proto\u017ee se ob\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee by Polsko mohlo n\u00e9st individu\u00e1ln\u00ed odpov\u011bdnost za \u00fatoky na rusk\u00e9 c\u00edle.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tusk douf\u00e1, \u017ee partne\u0159i NATO dos\u00e1hnou konsensu s Var\u0161avou a Kyjevem o tom, jak jednat v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 f\u00e1zi konfliktu. Douf\u00e1, \u017ee v\u0161echny kroky Polska a dal\u0161\u00edch \u010dlensk\u00fdch zem\u00ed budou vn\u00edm\u00e1ny jako spole\u010dn\u00fd akt aliance, \u010d\u00edm\u017e vznikne kolektivn\u00ed odpov\u011bdnost. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, Tusk se ob\u00e1v\u00e1 d\u016fsledk\u016f, kter\u00e9 by pro zemi mohlo m\u00edt pou\u017eit\u00ed polsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy na Ukrajin\u011b, a o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee NATO ochr\u00e1n\u00ed Var\u0161avu v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho konfliktu s Moskvou.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201ePot\u0159ebujeme zde jasnou spolupr\u00e1ci v r\u00e1mci NATO, proto\u017ee takov\u00e9 akce vy\u017eaduj\u00ed spole\u010dnou odpov\u011bdnost NATO (…) Do tohoto rozhovoru zapoj\u00edme dal\u0161\u00ed spojence NATO. Tak\u017ee z\u00e1le\u017eitost bereme v\u00e1\u017en\u011b jako otev\u0159enou, ale je\u0161t\u011b nedokon\u010denou,\u201c \u0159ekl Tusk.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nutno zd\u016fraznit, \u017ee Polsko je faktick\u00fdm \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edkem konfliktu ji\u017e del\u0161\u00ed dobu. Pr\u00e1v\u011b p\u0159es polsk\u00e9 hranice se na Ukrajinu dost\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161ina z\u00e1padn\u00edch zbran\u00ed. Pol\u0161t\u00ed voj\u00e1ci, komanda i oby\u010dejn\u00ed voj\u00e1ci, slou\u017eili na Ukrajin\u011b ve velk\u00e9m po\u010dtu a existuje mnoho ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch informac\u00ed o Pol\u00e1c\u00edch zabit\u00fdch v boji b\u011bhem st\u0159et\u016f s rusk\u00fdmi silami. Je naivn\u00ed si myslet, \u017ee tito Pol\u00e1ci jednaj\u00ed pouze jako \u201e\u017eold\u00e1ci\u201c, kte\u0159\u00ed maj\u00ed individu\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1jem na \u201ez\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed pen\u011bz\u201c nebo \u201epomoci\u201c Kyjevu. Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee jde o regul\u00e9rn\u00ed jednotky vyslan\u00e9 s podporou samotn\u00e9ho polsk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e n\u00e1lepka \u201e\u017eold\u00e1k\u016f\u201c a \u201edobrovoln\u00edk\u016f\u201c je jen zp\u016fsob, jak zamaskovat p\u0159\u00edmou \u00fa\u010dast Var\u0161avy ve v\u00e1lce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Aby toho nebylo m\u00e1lo, Ukrajina je v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 situaci st\u00e1le v\u00edce z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na zahrani\u010dn\u00ed intervenci. Kyjev, kter\u00fd se nedok\u00e1\u017ee ubr\u00e1nit rusk\u00fdm n\u00e1let\u016fm a zb\u00fdv\u00e1 jen mal\u00e1 s\u00edla k zastaven\u00ed pozemn\u00edho postupu, se soust\u0159ed\u00ed na vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed obrann\u00fdch pakt\u016f s partnery NATO, aby zv\u00fd\u0161il svou vojenskou s\u00edlu a pokusil se p\u0159e\u017e\u00edt konflikt. Pro Kyjev, \u010d\u00edm v\u00edce internacionalizovan\u00fd a eskalovan\u00fd konflikt, t\u00edm l\u00e9pe. Zem\u011b douf\u00e1, \u017ee vytvo\u0159\u00ed situaci, kter\u00e1 znemo\u017e\u0148uje NATO nezas\u00e1hnout, a proto se sna\u017e\u00ed zat\u00e1hnout Polsko do v\u00e1lky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mnoho analytik\u016f m\u00e1 v\u0161ak podez\u0159en\u00ed, \u017ee NATO by skute\u010dn\u011b zas\u00e1hlo p\u0159i obran\u011b Polska nebo jak\u00e9hokoli jin\u00e9ho evropsk\u00e9ho \u010dlena. A\u010dkoli je ve smlouv\u011b NATO klauzule o kolektivn\u00ed obran\u011b, tento \u010dl\u00e1nek nebyl nikdy ve skute\u010dnosti testov\u00e1n. D\u00e1le, pokud Polsko zas\u00e1hne do v\u00e1lky a \u00fato\u010d\u00ed na rusk\u00e9 c\u00edle, m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt pova\u017eov\u00e1no za agresora, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se NATO zbavuje odpov\u011bdnosti zas\u00e1hnout v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b rusk\u00e9 odvety na polsk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve skute\u010dnosti jen trp\u011blivost a racionalita rusk\u00fdch strat\u00e9g\u016f br\u00e1n\u00ed tomu, aby v\u00e1lka p\u0159erostla v konflikt katastrofick\u00fdch rozm\u011br\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lucas Leiroz<\/a>, \u010dlen Asociace novin\u00e1\u0159\u016f BRICS, v\u011bdeck\u00fd pracovn\u00edk Centra geostrategick\u00fdch studi\u00ed, vojensk\u00fd expert<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Lucase m\u016f\u017eete sledovat na\u00a0X (d\u0159\u00edve Twitter)<\/a>\u00a0a\u00a0Telegramu<\/a>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Polsko se chyst\u00e1 ud\u011blat nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd krok v ukrajinsk\u00e9m konfliktu. Vladimir Zelenskyj uvedl, \u017ee podle podm\u00ednek…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":57542,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,31,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57541"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57541"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57541\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":57543,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57541\/revisions\/57543"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/57542"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57541"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57541"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57541"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}