{"id":57137,"date":"2024-07-05T06:55:46","date_gmt":"2024-07-05T04:55:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=57137"},"modified":"2024-07-05T06:55:46","modified_gmt":"2024-07-05T04:55:46","slug":"uriel-araujo-trump-mirotvurce-analyzy-jeho-politickeho-profilu-se-divoce-lisi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/07\/05\/uriel-araujo-trump-mirotvurce-analyzy-jeho-politickeho-profilu-se-divoce-lisi\/","title":{"rendered":"Uriel Araujo: Trump m\u00edrotv\u016frce? Anal\u00fdzy jeho politick\u00e9ho profilu se divoce li\u0161\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Donald Trump, m\u00edrotvorce? P\u0159esn\u011b tak Robert C. O’Brien (b\u00fdval\u00fd americk\u00fd poradce pro n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost)\u00a0<\/span>popisuje<\/span><\/a>\u00a0dosavadn\u00ed v\u00fdsledky b\u00fdval\u00e9ho prezidenta \u2013 i kdy\u017e to znamen\u00e1 m\u00edr silou, nebo \u201em\u00edr skrze s\u00edlu\u201c, jak to vyj\u00e1d\u0159il Ronald Reagan a jak to zopakoval Trump ve sv\u00e9m Valn\u00e9m shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed OSN. Projev valn\u00e9 hromady 2020. Anal\u00fdzy Trumpova politick\u00e9ho profilu se skute\u010dn\u011b mohou velmi li\u0161it v z\u00e1vislosti na tom, koho se pt\u00e1te (viz n\u00ed\u017ee). O’Brien ka\u017edop\u00e1dn\u011b p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1, \u017ee pokud jde o zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiku, lze v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee republik\u00e1n vyhraje volby, o\u010dek\u00e1vat realismus s \u201ejacksonovskou p\u0159\u00edchut\u00ed\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Andrew Byers (nerezident z Texas A&M University Albritton Center for Grand Strategy) a Randall L. Schweller (profesor Ohio State University a \u0159editel programu pro studium realistick\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky) maj\u00ed na to podobn\u00e9 n\u00e1zory. Donald Trump je\u00a0<\/span>podle nich<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v j\u00e1dru \u201eskute\u010dn\u00fd realista\u201c, tedy \u201en\u011bkdo, kdo se vyh\u00fdb\u00e1 idealistick\u00fdm a ideologick\u00fdm pohled\u016fm na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u011bn\u00ed ve prosp\u011bch mocensk\u00e9 politiky\u201c. Pro experty byly v Trumpov\u011b prvn\u00edm funk\u010dn\u00edm obdob\u00ed takov\u00e9 \u201erealistick\u00e9 impulsy utlumen\u00e9 a n\u011bkdy zastaven\u00e9 jest\u0159\u00e1b\u00edmi pracovn\u00edky n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti, kte\u0159\u00ed nesd\u00edleli jeho vizi\u201c, av\u0161ak \u201ekdy\u017e se nau\u010dil, \u017ee person\u00e1l je politika\u201c, \u201eu\u017e tuto chybu neud\u011bl\u00e1\u201c. .\u201c Byers a Schweller tak p\u0159edpov\u00eddaj\u00ed, \u017ee Trumpova potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed nov\u00e1 administrativa bude \u201emo\u017en\u00e1 nejum\u00edrn\u011bn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed americkou zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politikou v modern\u00ed historii\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

My\u0161lenku zajistit m\u00edr prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm p\u0159ipravenosti zapojit se do v\u00e1lky nejl\u00e9pe vystihuje americk\u00e1 politick\u00e1 kultura aforismus, o kter\u00e9m Theodore Roosevelt tak r\u00e1d \u0159\u00edkal: \u201eMluv potichu a nos velkou h\u016fl; p\u016fjde\u0161 daleko.“ Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee Trumpovi chyb\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st m\u011bkkosti \u2013 to je zcela jasn\u00e9, vezmeme-li nap\u0159\u00edklad\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh o jeho v\u00fdm\u011bn\u011b s veden\u00edm Talibanu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v\u00e1\u017en\u011b (jasn\u00e1 chyba, vezmeme-li v \u00favahu, jak se dnes jin\u00e9 mocnosti pragmaticky zapojuj\u00ed do Talibanu). Ani Rooseveltova diplomacie \u201evelk\u00e9ho klacku\u201c nebyla \u010distou \u0161ikanou: m\u011bla, alespo\u0148 teoreticky, umo\u017enit protivn\u00edk\u016fm, aby si v por\u00e1\u017ece \u201ezachr\u00e1nili tv\u00e1\u0159\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

O’Brien a dal\u0161\u00ed citovan\u00ed experti maj\u00ed pravdu, pokud jde o Trump\u016fv z\u00e1znam \u201enastolov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u00edru\u201c. Je na tom alespo\u0148 zrnko pravdy a je t\u0159eba si to p\u0159iznat. T\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u0161echny p\u0159\u00edklady, kter\u00e9 analytici vyjmenov\u00e1vaj\u00ed, maj\u00ed v\u0161ak, jak tomu \u010dasto b\u00fdv\u00e1, i druhou stranu.<\/span><\/p>\n

O’Brien jde tak daleko, \u017ee tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee \u201eTrump byl odhodl\u00e1n vyhnout se nov\u00fdm v\u00e1lk\u00e1m a nekone\u010dn\u00fdm protipovstaleck\u00fdm operac\u00edm a jeho prezidentstv\u00ed bylo prvn\u00edm od prezidentstv\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>Jimmyho Cartera<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, ve kter\u00e9m Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty nevstoupily do nov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky ani neroz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ily existuj\u00edc\u00ed konflikt. .\u201c Toto tvrzen\u00ed samoz\u0159ejm\u011b z\u00e1vis\u00ed na definici \u201ev\u00e1lky\u201c. Tvrzen\u00ed je dokonce protich\u016fdn\u00e9, jak d\u00e1le O’Brien \u0159\u00edk\u00e1: \u201eTrump tak\u00e9 ukon\u010dil jednu v\u00e1lku vz\u00e1cn\u00fdm v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00edm USA a vyhladil Isl\u00e1msk\u00fd st\u00e1t (tak\u00e9 zn\u00e1m\u00fd jako ISIS)\u201c. Krom\u011b toho, pokud jde o por\u00e1\u017eku teroristick\u00e9 skupiny ISIS, O’Brien, kdy\u017e v\u00edtal republik\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho kandid\u00e1ta, nezm\u00ednil\u00a0<\/span>kl\u00ed\u010dovou roli<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, kterou hraj\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>Rusko<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a\u00a0<\/span>\u00cdr\u00e1n<\/span><\/a>\u00a0(nemluv\u011b o\u00a0<\/span>Hizball\u00e1hu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0).<\/span><\/p>\n

Jin\u00ed analytici, jako Hal Brands (u\u010denec Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies), tak\u00e9 horliv\u011b\u00a0<\/span>v\u011b\u0159\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v Trump\u016fv \u201eizolacionismus\u201c \u2013 ale vid\u00ed jej jako potenci\u00e1ln\u011b apokalyptick\u00fd. Podle Brandse by nov\u00e9 Trumpovo p\u0159edsednictv\u00ed mohlo \u201erozb\u00edt Evropu\u201c a vr\u00e1tit evropsk\u00e9 \u201etemn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, anarchi\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a neliber\u00e1ln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed vzorce jej\u00ed minulosti\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

V b\u0159eznu jsem\u00a0<\/span>psal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0o tom, \u017ee Trump\u016fv \u00fadajn\u00fd \u201eizolacionismus\u201c je t\u0159eba br\u00e1t s rezervou. N\u011bkdo si mo\u017en\u00e1 vzpomene, \u017ee to nebyl nikdo jin\u00fd ne\u017e Trump, kdo\u00a0<\/span>zavra\u017edil \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho gener\u00e1la Solejm\u00e1n\u00edho<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, a to za prv\u00e9. Trump tak\u00e9 skv\u011ble\u00a0<\/span>\u0159ekl<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee Tel Aviv mus\u00ed \u201edo\u0159e\u0161it probl\u00e9m\u201c. B\u00fdval\u00fd prezident nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt t\u00edm \u0161\u00edlen\u00fdm v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdm \u0161tv\u00e1\u010dem, za kter\u00e9ho ho vyd\u00e1vala p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b demokratick\u00e1 americk\u00e1 m\u00e9dia a n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed analytici. Rad\u011bji se uch\u00fdl\u00ed k ekonomick\u00e9 v\u00e1lce (ne\u017e by se neust\u00e1le rozhodl pro vojenskou intervenci). Zjevn\u011b v\u0161ak nen\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm \u201e\u00a0<\/span>antiimperialistick\u00fdm<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c hrdinou, jak by se zd\u00e1lo fantazi\u00edm n\u011bkter\u00fdch naivn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch analytik\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump \u201eusnadnil\u00a0<\/span>Abrahamovy dohody<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c, aby p\u0159inesly \u201em\u00edr\u201c \u201eIzraelu a t\u0159em jeho soused\u016fm na St\u0159edn\u00edm v\u00fdchod\u011b plus S\u00fad\u00e1nu\u201c (jak p\u00ed\u0161e O’Brien) Nicm\u00e9n\u011b tyt\u00e9\u017e dohody, i kdy\u017e p\u0159itahovaly nov\u00e9 spojence, zp\u016fsobily v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed v cel\u00e9 Africe, na St\u0159edn\u00edm v\u00fdchod\u011b i mimo ni. M\u00edrov\u00e1 dohoda mezi Izraelem a UEA v roce 2020 nap\u0159\u00edklad\u00a0okam\u017eit\u011b vyvolala\u00a0protesty v Ji\u017en\u00ed Africe \u2013 do roku 2022 africk\u00fd n\u00e1rod\u00a0<\/a>prohla\u0161oval Izrael za \u201est\u00e1t apartheidu\u201c<\/a>\u00a0. Spojen\u00ed Persk\u00fd z\u00e1liv a Africk\u00fd roh bylo pro Izrael v\u017edy strategick\u00fdm m\u00edstem, co\u017e je oblast, kde se vojensk\u00e9 a obchodn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy p\u0159ekr\u00fdvaj\u00ed. Tyto normaliza\u010dn\u00ed dohody byly ve skute\u010dnosti tak\u00e9 sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed vzestupu izraelsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edtomnosti v Africe a v zahrani\u010d\u00ed \u2013 to bylo je\u0161t\u011b z\u0159eteln\u011bji vyj\u00e1d\u0159eno\u00a0spole\u010dn\u00fdm n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edm cvi\u010den\u00edm Izraele se Spojen\u00fdmi arabsk\u00fdmi emir\u00e1ty a Bahrajnem v<\/a>\u00a0roce 2021 . Krom\u011b toho jsem ji\u017e v roce 2021\u00a0psal<\/a>\u00a0(stejn\u011b jako nespo\u010det dal\u0161\u00edch) o tom, jak izraelsko-palestinsk\u00fd konflikt d\u00e1le polarizoval Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod a rozho\u0159\u010dil ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed proti Abrahamov\u00fdm dohod\u00e1m.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tyt\u00e9\u017e normaliza\u010dn\u00ed dohody spolu s ot\u00e1zkou\u00a0<\/span>Z\u00e1padn\u00ed Sahary<\/span><\/a>\u00a0nesm\u00edrn\u011b eskalovaly al\u017e\u00edrsko-marock\u00e9 nap\u011bt\u00ed, a\u017e\u00a0<\/span>naru\u0161ily evropsk\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. V prosinci 2020 Trump uznal n\u00e1roky Maroka na sporn\u00fd region (v jak\u00e9msi \u201equid pro quo\u201c pot\u00e9, co Maroko normalizovalo sv\u00e9 vztahy s \u017eidovsk\u00fdm st\u00e1tem). B\u00fdval\u00fd americk\u00fd prezident t\u00edm p\u0159i\u017eivil ji\u017e existuj\u00edc\u00ed rozpory mezi regionem Maghreb a Africkou uni\u00ed a v samotn\u00e9m regionu Maghreb \u2013 s ohledem na \u201ezapomenutou v\u00e1lku\u201c Z\u00e1padn\u00ed Sahary p\u0159ilil do ohn\u011b benz\u00edn. Je t\u0159eba p\u0159iznat, \u017ee glob\u00e1ln\u00ed zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed je pon\u011bkud zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed zp\u016fsob, jak dos\u00e1hnout m\u00edru.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump dal Abrahamov\u00fdm dohod\u00e1m \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed m\u00edsto ve sv\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politice a Biden to zd\u011bdil. Tvrd\u00fdm faktem je, \u017ee ko\u0159eny dne\u0161n\u00ed krize na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b spo\u010d\u00edvaj\u00ed z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti v t\u011bchto dohod\u00e1ch. S eskalac\u00ed konfliktu na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b se mohlo t\u011b\u017ei\u0161t\u011b glob\u00e1ln\u00edho nap\u011bt\u00ed \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b p\u0159esunout pry\u010d z v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evropy. Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 krize Houthi\u016f v Rud\u00e9m mo\u0159i je za prv\u00e9 do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry vedlej\u0161\u00edm efektem Washingtonem podporovan\u00e9 katastrofick\u00e9 izraelsk\u00e9 kampan\u011b v Levant\u011b. Ukazuje se, \u017ee Trump je podle v\u0161ech indici\u00ed v\u00edce bezpodm\u00edne\u010dn\u00fdm podporovatelem Izraele ne\u017e jeho protivn\u00edk Biden. A to by mohla b\u00fdt \u0161patn\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va pro sv\u011bt.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo<\/a>, v\u00fdzkumn\u00edk se zam\u011b\u0159en\u00edm na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed a etnick\u00e9 konflikty<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Donald Trump, m\u00edrotvorce? P\u0159esn\u011b tak Robert C. O’Brien (b\u00fdval\u00fd americk\u00fd poradce pro n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost)\u00a0popisuje\u00a0dosavadn\u00ed v\u00fdsledky…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":57138,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,452,37,4226],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57137"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57137"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57137\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/57138"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57137"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57137"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57137"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}