{"id":56967,"date":"2024-07-03T00:39:37","date_gmt":"2024-07-02T22:39:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=56967"},"modified":"2024-07-02T17:31:27","modified_gmt":"2024-07-02T15:31:27","slug":"jiri-paroubek-francouzske-noviny-rozebiraji-vysledky-1-kola-parlamentnich-voleb","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/07\/03\/jiri-paroubek-francouzske-noviny-rozebiraji-vysledky-1-kola-parlamentnich-voleb\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek: Francouzsk\u00e9 noviny rozeb\u00edraj\u00ed v\u00fdsledky 1. kola parlamentn\u00edch voleb"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Francouzsk\u00e9 noviny i televize jsou dnes pln\u00e9 nejr\u016fzn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch anal\u00fdz, pohled\u016f a koment\u00e1\u0159\u016f k v\u00fdsledk\u016fm 1. kola voleb do N\u00e1rodn\u00edho shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed, kter\u00e9 prob\u011bhly v ned\u011bli 1. \u010dervence. Nep\u0159inesly \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 velk\u00e9 p\u0159ekvapen\u00ed, nebo\u0165 v\u00fdsledky pr\u016fzkum\u016f ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed p\u0159edv\u00eddaly s p\u0159edstihem jasnou por\u00e1\u017eku macronist\u016f a velk\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed lepenovsk\u00e9ho N\u00e1rodn\u00edho shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed (RN).<\/strong><\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e se pod\u00edv\u00e1me na p\u0159esn\u00e9 volebn\u00ed v\u00fdsledky 1. kola, pak lepenist\u00e9 (RN) z\u00edskali 33,15% hlas\u016f. Hned za nimi, celkem p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b s\u00a0ohledem na kr\u00e1tkost volebn\u00ed kampan\u011b, byla s\u00a0velmi slu\u0161n\u00fdm volebn\u00edm v\u00fdsledkem Nov\u00e1 Lidov\u00e1 fronta (NFP) s\u00a027,99%.<\/p>\n

Hluboko v\u00a0poli pora\u017een\u00fdch skon\u010dili macronist\u00e9 s\u00a0necel\u00fdmi 21% hlas\u016f (Obnova \u2013 20,76%).<\/p>\n

\u010ctvrt\u00ed na p\u00e1sce skon\u010dili ve volb\u00e1ch republik\u00e1ni s\u00a06,57% hlas\u016f.<\/p>\n

Zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 jsou v\u00fdsledky 1. kola z\u00a0hlediska po\u010dtu ji\u017e zvolen\u00fdch poslanc\u016f N\u00e1rodn\u00edho shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed (NS). Lepenovci maj\u00ed zvolen\u00fdch 39 poslanc\u016f. Nov\u00e1 Lidov\u00e1 fronta 32 poslanc\u016f, republik\u00e1ni (neogaullist\u00e9) z\u00edskali 3 mand\u00e1ty a Obnova, nebo chcete-li hnut\u00ed Spole\u010dn\u011b, tedy hnut\u00ed prezidenta Macrona, z\u00edskalo 2 mand\u00e1ty.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00fdch jednomand\u00e1tov\u00fdch volebn\u00edch obvodech, kde bude je\u0161t\u011b prob\u00edhat volba ve 2. kole (jedn\u00e1 se o 501 volebn\u00edch obvod\u016f), se uskute\u010dn\u00ed 190 duel\u016f (ve 190 volebn\u00edch obvodech), tedy souboj\u016f kandid\u00e1t\u016f dvou stran. A to takto:<\/p>\n

–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 v\u00a067 volebn\u00edch obvodech se st\u0159etne z\u00e1stupce Lidov\u00e9 fronty s\u00a0lepenovci (RN)<\/p>\n

–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 ve 33 volebn\u00edch obvodech se st\u0159etnou macronist\u00e9 s\u00a0RN<\/p>\n

–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 v\u00a029 \u00a0volebn\u00edch obvodech se utkaj\u00ed s RN republik\u00e1ni<\/p>\n

–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 ve zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edch 28 volebn\u00edch obvodech, kde prob\u011bhnou duely, se utkaj\u00ed macronis\u00e9 s\u00a0reprezentanty \u0139idov\u00e9 fronty.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0\u0159ad\u011b t\u011bchto obvod\u016f se poda\u0159ilo dos\u00e1hnout dohody mezi levic\u00ed a centristy o tom, \u017ee budou stav\u011bt jen jednoho kandid\u00e1ta, kter\u00fd bude \u010delit lepenovc\u016fm. V n\u011bkter\u00fdch volebn\u00edch obvodech k\u00a0tomu do\u0161lo p\u0159irozenou cestou, nebo\u0165 t\u0159et\u00ed kandid\u00e1t na p\u00e1sce v\u00a01. kole nez\u00edskal 12,5% hlas\u016f pot\u0159ebn\u00fdch pro eventu\u00e1ln\u00ed postup do 2. kola. Ve 28 volebn\u00edch obvodech dohoda dosa\u017een\u00e1 nen\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

V\u00a0dal\u0161\u00edch 306 jednomand\u00e1tov\u00fdch volebn\u00edch obvodech dojde ke st\u0159etu t\u0159\u00ed kandid\u00e1t\u016f r\u016fzn\u00fdch politick\u00fdch stran:<\/p>\n

–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 ve 246 obvodech to bude RN vs. kandid\u00e1ti macronist\u016f a Lidov\u00e9 fronty<\/p>\n

–\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 ve 44 volebn\u00edch obvodech to bude st\u0159et kandid\u00e1ta RN, republik\u00e1n\u016f (LR) a NFP, tedy Lidov\u00e9 fronty<\/p>\n

A v\u00a0p\u011bti volebn\u00edch obvodech dojde dokonce ke st\u0159etu kandid\u00e1t\u016f p\u011bti stran. V\u00a0ka\u017ed\u00e9m z\u00a0t\u011bchto\u00a0 obvod\u016f jsou ov\u0161em lepenovci a tak\u00e9 kandid\u00e1ti Lidov\u00e9 fronty. Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b v\u00a0t\u011bchto p\u011bti volebn\u00edch obvodech je situace nejm\u00e9n\u011b p\u0159ehledn\u00e1.<\/p>\n

P\u0159i zb\u011b\u017en\u00e9m pohledu na politickou mapu Francie, kterou dnes p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed nap\u0159. list Le Figaro, mus\u00ed ka\u017ed\u00e9mu b\u00fdt jasn\u00e9, jak\u00fd skok, co do \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nosti volebn\u00edho v\u00fdsledku, ud\u011blala RN za posledn\u00ed roky. Zejm\u00e9na, pokud vedle dvoustrany den\u00edku, na n\u00ed\u017e je uvedena politick\u00e1 mapa Francie v\u00a0barv\u00e1ch politick\u00fdch stran, kter\u00e9 zv\u00edt\u011bzily v jednotliv\u00fdch departementech, jsou uvedeny mapky zn\u00e1zor\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed volebn\u00ed v\u00fdsledky stran z prezidentsk\u00fdch voleb v\u00a0roce 2017, ale tak\u00e9 z\u00a0prezidentsk\u00fdch voleb 12. \u010dervna 2022.<\/p>\n

RN je na velk\u00e9 mapce Figara zachycena tmav\u011b fialovou barvou. A prakticky cel\u00e1 Francie, a\u017e na ur\u010dit\u00e9 \u201eostrovy\u201c, kde byly \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 jin\u00e9 strany, je tmav\u011b fialov\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch \u00fasp\u011bch\u016f ve volb\u00e1ch dos\u00e1hli socialist\u00e9 a macronovci p\u0159\u00edmo v\u00a0Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017ei, ale tak\u00e9 v\u00a0n\u011bkdej\u0161\u00edm \u201erud\u00e9m p\u00e1su\u201c kolem Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017ee, tedy v \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed pa\u0159\u00ed\u017esk\u00e9 aglomeraci. Ale i v\u00a0t\u00e9to aglomeraci jsou men\u0161\u00ed ostr\u016fvky, kde dominovala v\u00fdsledkov\u011b RN. Celkov\u011b tedy RN dnes m\u00e1 ji\u017e 39 jist\u00fdch mand\u00e1t\u016f, d\u00e1le do 2. kola voleb postupuje z\u00a0prvn\u00ed pozice 297 jejich kandid\u00e1t\u016f a dal\u0161\u00edch 161 kandid\u00e1t\u016f kandiduje ve volebn\u00edch obvodech, kde se utkaj\u00ed ne s\u00a0jedn\u00edm, ale s\u00a0dv\u011bma kandid\u00e1ty.<\/p>\n

Podle v\u010derej\u0161\u00edch odhad\u016f listu Le Figaro by v\u00a0577-\u010dlenn\u00e9m parlamentu (N\u00e1rodn\u00ed shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed) mohla RN se sv\u00fdmi spojenci z\u00edskat 240 \u2013 270 k\u0159esel. Tradi\u010dn\u00ed pravice \u2013 tedy republik\u00e1ni – by mohli z\u00edskat 30 – 50 k\u0159esel. Macronovo hnut\u00ed Spole\u010dn\u011b avansuje na zisk 60 \u2013 90 k\u0159esel. A Nov\u00e1 Lidov\u00e1 fronta m\u016f\u017ee z\u00edskat 180 \u2013 200 mand\u00e1t\u016f. A\u017e 20 mand\u00e1t\u016f m\u016f\u017eou z\u00edskat ostatn\u00ed strany, tedy zejm\u00e9na kandid\u00e1ti krajn\u00ed pravice a krajn\u00ed levice.<\/p>\n

V\u00edt\u011bzem voleb jsou v\u00a01. kole tedy jednozna\u010dn\u011b Jordan Bardella, \u0161\u00e9f RN, a druh\u00fdm v\u00edt\u011bzem voleb je hlavn\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel levice Jean\u2013Luc M\u00e9lenchon.<\/p>\n

Druh\u00e9 kolo m\u016f\u017ee tedy p\u0159in\u00e9st dokonce v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed RN s\u00a0absolutn\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161inou. Pod\u00edv\u00e1me-li se nezaujat\u011b na to, kolik kandid\u00e1t\u016f RN postoupilo do 2. kola a bereme-li v\u00a0\u00favahu tak\u00e9 to, \u017ee nebyla uzav\u0159ena gener\u00e1ln\u00ed dohoda mezi macronisty, levicov\u00fdm blokem a republik\u00e1ny o vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 podpo\u0159e proti kandid\u00e1t\u016fm RN, je prakticky v\u0161echno mo\u017en\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Znamenalo by to, \u017ee a\u017e do prezidentsk\u00fdch voleb za t\u0159i roky by prezident Macron byl nucen spolupracovat s\u00a0krajn\u011b pravicovou vl\u00e1dou RN. A i kdy\u017e mezi \u00dastavou dan\u00e9 pravomoci prezidenta Francie pat\u0159\u00ed obrana st\u00e1tu a zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politika, pokud se rozhodne vl\u00e1da nap\u0159. d\u00e1le nepodporovat Ukrajinu dod\u00e1vkami zbran\u00ed, prezident t\u011b\u017eko bude moci v\u00a0t\u00e9to ot\u00e1zce vyvol\u00e1vat krizov\u00e1 st\u0159etnut\u00ed s\u00a0vl\u00e1dou.<\/p>\n

D\u00e1 se \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee a\u0165 dopadne 2. kolo parlamentn\u00edch voleb jakkoliv, Francie bude rozd\u011blena. rozd\u011blena politicky do t\u0159\u00ed siln\u00fdch t\u00e1bor\u016f. I kdy\u017e macronovci budou po\u010detn\u00e9 nejslab\u0161\u00ed ze t\u0159\u00ed hlavn\u00edch politick\u00fdch sil v NS, jejich politick\u00fd v\u00fdznam bude zvy\u0161ovat jasn\u00e1 podpora prezidenta Macrona pro jejich hnut\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se tedy, \u017ee jedna ze dvou kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch\u00a0 zem\u00ed EU, Francie, bude v\u00a0nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch t\u0159ech letech paralyzov\u00e1na vnit\u0159n\u00edm konfliktem, st\u00e1lou latentn\u00ed politickou kriz\u00ed.\u00a0 T\u00edm se rozplynou sny prezidenta Macrona p\u0159evz\u00edt jak\u00e9si duchovn\u011b-mor\u00e1ln\u00ed veden\u00ed EU, po n\u011bm\u017e sahal s\u00a0ohledem na relativn\u00ed slabost koali\u010dn\u00ed n\u011bmeck\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b je dob\u0159e, \u017ee Francie zaznamen\u00e1v\u00e1 politickou zm\u011bnu, ale tato zm\u011bna bude ve sv\u00fdch d\u016fsledc\u00edch vys\u00edlat tenze do cel\u00e9 Evropsk\u00e9 unie. To ur\u010dit\u011b nen\u00ed a nebude dobr\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va.<\/p>\n

Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Francouzsk\u00e9 noviny i televize jsou dnes pln\u00e9 nejr\u016fzn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch anal\u00fdz, pohled\u016f a koment\u00e1\u0159\u016f k v\u00fdsledk\u016fm 1….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":37707,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,130,1503,122,27],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56967"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56967"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56967\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37707"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56967"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56967"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56967"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}