{"id":56920,"date":"2024-07-03T00:32:46","date_gmt":"2024-07-02T22:32:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=56920"},"modified":"2024-07-02T15:56:07","modified_gmt":"2024-07-02T13:56:07","slug":"lucas-leiroz-nemecko-rozsiruje-zpravodajske-sluzby-uprostred-sve-pripravy-na-valku-s-ruskem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/07\/03\/lucas-leiroz-nemecko-rozsiruje-zpravodajske-sluzby-uprostred-sve-pripravy-na-valku-s-ruskem\/","title":{"rendered":"Lucas Leiroz: N\u011bmecko roz\u0161i\u0159uje zpravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby uprost\u0159ed sv\u00e9 \u201ep\u0159\u00edpravy na v\u00e1lku\u201c s Ruskem"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

N\u011bmecko pokra\u010duje ve sv\u00e9 iracion\u00e1ln\u00ed \u201ep\u0159\u00edprav\u011b na v\u00e1lku\u201c proti Rusku. Ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy m\u00e9di\u00ed nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee vojensk\u00e1 kontrarozv\u011bdka zem\u011b se chyst\u00e1 z\u00edskat dal\u0161\u00ed podporu, aby se p\u0159ipravila na zahrani\u010dn\u00ed hrozby v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b konfliktu s Ruskem. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee Berl\u00edn je p\u0159ipraven podniknout v\u0161echny mo\u017en\u00e9 kroky k otev\u0159en\u00e9 v\u00e1lce s Moskvou, i kdy\u017e o\u010dividn\u011b neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 mo\u017enost, \u017ee by N\u011bmecko v takov\u00e9m konfliktu zv\u00edt\u011bzilo.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u011bmeck\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 kontrarozv\u011bdka (MAD)<\/span><\/a>\u00a0se zjevn\u011b p\u0159ipravuje na sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 konfliktu. Podle n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho listu Welt usiluje MAD o roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed sv\u00e9 opera\u010dn\u00ed kapacity nejen na dom\u00e1c\u00edch \u00fazem\u00edch, ale i v zahrani\u010d\u00ed. C\u00edlem je, aby n\u011bmeck\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly byly schopn\u00e9 vypo\u0159\u00e1dat se s v\u00fdzvami, kter\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 p\u0159edstavuje. MAD pl\u00e1nuje, \u017ee bude schopn\u00e9 nejen sledovat \u010dinnost n\u011bmeck\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f \u2013 co\u017e je typick\u00e9 pro kontrarozv\u011bdky \u2013 ale tak\u00e9 \u0161pehovat ciz\u00ed a nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 jednotky.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eNovela p\u0159izn\u00e1v\u00e1 Vojensk\u00e9 kontrarozv\u011bdce pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 pravomoci k ochran\u011b Bundeswehru p\u0159ed \u0161pion\u00e1\u017e\u00ed a sabot\u00e1\u017e\u00ed ciz\u00edch mocnost\u00ed i p\u0159ed extremistick\u00fdmi pokusy o infiltraci z vlastn\u00edch \u0159ad, a to i b\u011bhem zahrani\u010dn\u00edch mis\u00ed,\u201c uvedla mluv\u010d\u00ed n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho ministerstva. Obhajoba uvedla b\u011bhem ofici\u00e1ln\u00edho prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Agentura pl\u00e1nuje vyu\u017e\u00edt jak pokro\u010dil\u00e9 technologie, tak infiltrovan\u00fd person\u00e1l k z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed strategick\u00fdch informac\u00ed od zahrani\u010dn\u00edch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil. Welt uvedl, \u017ee roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed pravomoc\u00ed MAD je v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b prioritou n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho ministerstva obrany, kter\u00e9 s\u00e1z\u00ed na zpravodajstv\u00ed jako \u00fa\u010dinn\u00fd n\u00e1stroj, kter\u00fd Berl\u00ednu poskytne strategickou v\u00fdhodu v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b v\u00e1lky. Pl\u00e1n ministerstva je v souladu s politikou otev\u0159en\u00e9ho nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed Olafa Scholze s Ruskou federac\u00ed, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e Moskva je N\u011bmeckem vn\u00edm\u00e1na jako hrozba nejen pro n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost, ale i pro stabilitu Evropy jako celku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Chyst\u00e1 se hlasovat o n\u00e1vrhu z\u00e1kona, kter\u00fd formalizuje roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed pravomoc\u00ed MAD. Vzhledem k vysok\u00e9 m\u00ed\u0159e protirusk\u00e9 paranoie v N\u011bmecku je vysoce pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee n\u00e1vrh z\u00e1kona bude schv\u00e1len. Je v\u0161ak t\u0159eba p\u0159ipomenout, \u017ee n\u011bmeck\u00e1 vl\u00e1da je extr\u00e9mn\u011b nepopul\u00e1rn\u00ed, proto\u017ee b\u011bhem ned\u00e1vn\u00fdch voleb do\u0161lo k siln\u00e9mu vzestupu pravicov\u00e9ho k\u0159\u00eddla. V praxi je mo\u017en\u00e9 \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee protirusk\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed maj\u00ed silnou institucion\u00e1ln\u00ed podporu, ale nel\u00edb\u00ed se oby\u010dejn\u00fdm lidem, kte\u0159\u00ed cht\u011bj\u00ed, aby zem\u011b \u0161la cestou m\u00edru a stability.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u011bmeck\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady ned\u00e1vno vytvo\u0159ily ak\u010dn\u00ed pl\u00e1n na udr\u017een\u00ed jak\u00e9si \u201ebrig\u00e1dy p\u0159ipraven\u00e9 na v\u00e1lku\u201c, rozm\u00edst\u011bnou kolem 5000 n\u011bmeck\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm k\u0159\u00eddle NATO. Pobaltsk\u00e9 zem\u011b, zejm\u00e9na Litva, jsou hlavn\u00edm t\u011b\u017ei\u0161t\u011bm akce v tomto pl\u00e1nu, vzhledem k jejich geografick\u00e9 bl\u00edzkosti k rusk\u00e9mu \u00fazem\u00ed Kaliningrad a hranici s B\u011bloruskou republikou. N\u011bmecko v\u011b\u0159\u00ed v nepodlo\u017een\u00fd narativ, \u017ee Rusko pl\u00e1nuje invazi do Polska a Litvy, aby anektovalo \u00fazem\u00ed spojuj\u00edc\u00ed B\u011blorusko s Kaliningradem, a proto Berl\u00edn navrhuje situaci v regionu \u201epozorn\u011b sledovat\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee nov\u00e9 pravomoci MAD umo\u017en\u00ed n\u011bmeck\u00e9 tajn\u00e9 slu\u017eb\u011b podporovat partnery NATO v tomto \u00fakolu sledov\u00e1n\u00ed rusk\u00fdch akc\u00ed. V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b m\u00e1 MAD extr\u00e9mn\u011b omezen\u00e9 opera\u010dn\u00ed schopnosti, proto\u017ee agentura sm\u00ed leg\u00e1ln\u011b p\u016fsobit pouze v r\u00e1mci n\u011bmeck\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed. Berl\u00edn chce tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 zm\u011bnit a povolit akce v zahrani\u010d\u00ed, nebo\u0165 sou\u010dasnou situaci s Ruskem pova\u017euje za v\u00e1\u017enou a nebezpe\u010dnou, vy\u017eaduj\u00edc\u00ed reformy n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho pr\u00e1va.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee ka\u017ed\u00e1 zem\u011b m\u00e1 pr\u00e1vo zm\u011bnit strukturu sv\u00e9ho zpravodajsk\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu za \u00fa\u010delem zlep\u0161en\u00ed n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti. Probl\u00e9m je, kdy\u017e jsou tyto zm\u011bny motivov\u00e1ny\u00a0<\/span>neskute\u010dn\u00fdmi \u201ehrozbami\u201c vymy\u0161len\u00fdmi zahrani\u010dn\u00edmi m\u00e9dii podporovan\u00fdmi USA<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd rusk\u00fd z\u00e1jem na podpo\u0159e \u00fazemn\u00ed expanze sm\u011brem k Pobalt\u00ed. Ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 \u00fazemn\u00ed reintegrace n\u011bkter\u00fdch b\u00fdval\u00fdch ukrajinsk\u00fdch oblast\u00ed neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee Rusko m\u00e1 n\u011bjak\u00e9 expanzivn\u00ed pl\u00e1ny. Moskva pouze akceptovala p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011bchto region\u016f p\u0159ipojit se k federaci, proto\u017ee neexistoval jin\u00fd zp\u016fsob, jak zaru\u010dit bezpe\u010dnost tam \u017eij\u00edc\u00edch etnick\u00fdch Rus\u016f, ale ze strany Ruska nen\u00ed z\u00e1jem o z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed nov\u00fdch \u00fazem\u00ed v z\u00e1padn\u00ed Evrop\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u011bmecko se prost\u011b p\u0159ipravuje \u010delit fale\u0161n\u00e9 hrozb\u011b. Nav\u00edc to d\u011bl\u00e1 amat\u00e9rsk\u00fdm a naivn\u00edm zp\u016fsobem. Nezd\u00e1 se racion\u00e1ln\u00ed, aby zem\u011b ve\u0159ejn\u011b ozn\u00e1mila sv\u016fj pl\u00e1n na roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed sv\u00e9 zpravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby a vyu\u017eit\u00ed \u0161pion\u016f v zahrani\u010d\u00ed. Nyn\u00ed maj\u00ed n\u011bme\u010dt\u00ed \u201enep\u0159\u00e1tel\u00e9\u201c \u2013 co\u017e jsou v tomto konkr\u00e9tn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Rusov\u00e9 \u2013 v\u0161echny pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 informace, aby mohli tak\u00e9 reagovat prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm kontrarozv\u011bdky. V praxi Berl\u00edn neutralizoval sv\u016fj vlastn\u00ed zpravodajsk\u00fd potenci\u00e1l, co\u017e ukazuje, jak nep\u0159ipraven\u00e1 je zem\u011b p\u0159ipojit se k jak\u00e9koli vojensk\u00e9 iniciativ\u011b. Nejlep\u0161\u00ed pro N\u011bmecko je soust\u0159edit se na sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed vnit\u0159n\u00ed probl\u00e9my, m\u00edsto aby se sna\u017eilo v\u00e9st nevyhrateln\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lucas Leiroz,<\/strong> \u010dlen Asociace novin\u00e1\u0159\u016f BRICS, v\u011bdeck\u00fd pracovn\u00edk Centra geostrategick\u00fdch studi\u00ed, vojensk\u00fd expert<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Lucase m\u016f\u017eete sledovat na\u00a0<\/span>X (b\u00fdval\u00fd Twitter)<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a\u00a0<\/span>Telegram<\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

ZDROJ<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

N\u011bmecko pokra\u010duje ve sv\u00e9 iracion\u00e1ln\u00ed \u201ep\u0159\u00edprav\u011b na v\u00e1lku\u201c proti Rusku. Ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy m\u00e9di\u00ed nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":56921,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,84,3769,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56920"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56920"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56920\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56921"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56920"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56920"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56920"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}