{"id":56529,"date":"2024-06-28T00:35:23","date_gmt":"2024-06-27T22:35:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=56529"},"modified":"2024-06-27T15:34:51","modified_gmt":"2024-06-27T13:34:51","slug":"andrew-korybko-plan-pmc-pro-ukrajinu-hlaseny-usa-predstavuje-castecny-konvencni-zasah","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/06\/28\/andrew-korybko-plan-pmc-pro-ukrajinu-hlaseny-usa-predstavuje-castecny-konvencni-zasah\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Pl\u00e1n PMC pro Ukrajinu hl\u00e1\u0161en\u00fd USA p\u0159edstavuje \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00fd konven\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1sah"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

USA pokra\u010duj\u00ed ve v\u00fdvoji sv\u00e9 politiky v\u016f\u010di konfliktu sm\u011brem k dal\u0161\u00ed eskalaci, aby kompenzovaly to, \u017ee Ukrajin\u011b nedovolily v nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed dob\u011b vstoupit do NATO.<\/strong><\/p>\n

CNN\u00a0<\/a>citovala \u010dty\u0159i nejmenovan\u00e9 zdroje z administrativy, kter\u00e9 exkluzivn\u011b uvedly, \u017ee USA zva\u017euj\u00ed otev\u0159en\u011b umo\u017enit americk\u00fdm soukrom\u00fdm vojensk\u00fdm dodavatel\u016fm (PMC) pracovat na Ukrajin\u011b na v\u00fdplatn\u00ed listin\u011b Pentagonu pod z\u00e1minkou, \u017ee tam budou udr\u017eovat a opravovat vojensk\u00e9 vybaven\u00ed. Polsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r Tusk ji\u017e koncem kv\u011btna\u00a0p\u0159iznal\u00a0<\/a>, \u017ee \u201ejsou tam (na Ukrajin\u011b) n\u011bjak\u00e9 jednotky, mysl\u00edm voj\u00e1ci. Jsou tam n\u011bjac\u00ed voj\u00e1ci. Pozorovatel\u00e9, in\u017een\u00fd\u0159i\u201c, tak\u017ee tento v\u00fdvoj by s\u00e1m o sob\u011b nebyl ni\u010d\u00edm nov\u00fdm.<\/p>\n

Co je na tomto n\u00e1vrhu problematick\u00e9, je to, \u017ee se rovn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9 konven\u010dn\u00ed intervenci, kter\u00e1 riskuje normalizaci st\u00e1le otev\u0159en\u011bj\u0161\u00edho zapojen\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00edch sil na\u00a0Ukrajin\u011b\u00a0<\/a>. Francouzsk\u00fd prezident Macron ned\u00e1vno\u00a0ustoupil od sv\u00e9 r\u00e9toriky o povolen\u00ed vlastn\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>konven\u010dn\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>intervence\u00a0<\/a>sv\u00e9 zem\u011b\u00a0tam, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b ve snaze z\u00edskat zp\u011bt voli\u010de p\u0159ed nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edmi p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00fdmi volbami, ale tato nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zpr\u00e1va ukazuje, \u017ee USA nyn\u00ed za\u010daly s t\u00edmto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em flirtovat.<\/p>\n

Ru\u0161t\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 opakovan\u011b slibovali, \u017ee se tam zam\u011b\u0159\u00ed na v\u0161echny zahrani\u010dn\u00ed s\u00edly, a mo\u017enost, \u017ee by j\u00edm mohl b\u00fdt brzy zabit velk\u00fd po\u010det americk\u00fdch PMCS, stejn\u011b jako\u00a0Rusko v lednu vy\u0159adilo n\u011bkolik des\u00edtek francouzsk\u00fdch,\u00a0<\/a>by mohla b\u00fdt vyu\u017eita USA jako z\u00e1minka pro dal\u0161\u00ed eskalace. Na jednu stranu se prezident Putin zdr\u00e1h\u00e1 eskalovat, jak dokazuje jeho\u00a0vla\u017en\u00e1 reakce\u00a0<\/a>na ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed pl\u00e1\u017eov\u00fdch n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvn\u00edk\u016f podporovan\u00e9 USA, ale na druhou stranu nemohl ne\u010dinn\u011b sed\u011bt, proto\u017ee tyto PMC ohro\u017euj\u00ed rusk\u00e9 voj\u00e1ky.<\/p>\n

M\u011blo by se proto pova\u017eovat za samoz\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee by se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b staly prioritn\u00edmi c\u00edli, i kdy\u017e jen z d\u016fvod\u016f \u201epresti\u017ee\u201c a tak\u00e9 v nad\u011bji, kterou n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed ru\u0161t\u00ed tv\u016frci politik vkl\u00e1daj\u00ed z jejich mo\u017en\u00e1 vysoce medializovan\u00fdch \u00famrt\u00ed, a vyv\u00edjej\u00ed tak v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed tlak na USA, aby zm\u011bnily svou politiku. sm\u011brem ke konfliktu. Demokrat\u00e9 by pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nesed\u011bli ne\u010dinn\u011b, kdy\u017e Rusko zab\u00edj\u00ed PMC jejich zem\u011b, ani by pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b neodvolali tuto politiku tak kr\u00e1tce pot\u00e9, co by mohla b\u00fdt vyhl\u00e1\u0161ena, a proto by se o\u010dek\u00e1vala eskalace.<\/p>\n

Pozorovatel\u00e9 mohou jen spekulovat o tom, jakou podobu by to mohlo m\u00edt, ale jde o to, \u017ee proj\u00edt n\u00e1vrhem, aby se americk\u00fdm PMC otev\u0159en\u011b umo\u017enilo pracovat na Ukrajin\u011b na v\u00fdplatn\u00ed listin\u011b Pentagonu a obsluhovaly americk\u00e9 vybaven\u00ed, kter\u00e9 m\u00e1 zab\u00edjet Rusy, p\u0159edstavuje novou \u00farove\u0148 zapojen\u00ed do konflikt. Rusk\u00e1 \u201e\u00a0Katastrofa v Deir ez-Zor\u00a0<\/a>\u201c, kde USA \u00fadajn\u011b na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2018 kvalifikovaly des\u00edtky Wagnerov\u00fdch PMC, se stala p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e oba form\u00e1ln\u011b uznali vztah t\u00e9to skupiny s ministerstvem obrany.<\/p>\n

V souladu s t\u00edm byla pro Rusko p\u0159ipravena sc\u00e9na k deeskalaci t\u00edm, \u017ee se nebude c\u00edtit pod tlakem reagovat na to, co se stalo, ale to by nebyl p\u0159\u00edpad, kdyby Rusko zabilo americk\u00e9 PMC na Ukrajin\u011b, kter\u00e9 jsou ofici\u00e1ln\u011b na v\u00fdplatn\u00ed listin\u011b Pentagonu pot\u00e9, co se form\u00e1ln\u011b zm\u011bn\u00ed administrativa. svou politiku v\u016f\u010di tomuto citliv\u00e9mu t\u00e9matu. S ohledem na to USA zjevn\u011b v\u011bd\u00ed, do \u010deho jdou, ale jest\u0159\u00e1b\u00ed frakce, kter\u00e1 stoj\u00ed za t\u00edmto n\u00e1vrhem, jej nad\u00e1le prosazuje jako zp\u016fsob, jak uk\u00e1zat dal\u0161\u00ed solidaritu s nov\u00fdm spojencem jejich zem\u011b.<\/p>\n

V polovin\u011b \u010dervna bylo vysv\u011btleno, \u017ee \u201e\u00a0Bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed pakt USA s Ukrajinou je \u00fat\u011bchou za neschv\u00e1len\u00ed jej\u00edho \u010dlenstv\u00ed v NATO\u00a0<\/a>\u201c a o t\u00fdden pozd\u011bji, \u017ee \u201e\u00a0V\u00edce protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany a p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00edch \u00fader\u016f dynamiku ukrajinsk\u00e9ho konfliktu nezm\u011bn\u00ed.\u00a0<\/a>\u201c. Abychom to pro \u010dten\u00e1\u0159e shrnuli, relevantn\u00ed z\u00e1v\u011bry byly, \u017ee USA pokra\u010duj\u00ed ve v\u00fdvoji sv\u00e9 politiky v\u016f\u010di konfliktu sm\u011brem k dal\u0161\u00ed eskalaci, aby kompenzovaly to, \u017ee Ukrajin\u011b nedovolily v nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00ed dob\u011b vstoupit do NATO.<\/p>\n

Ani vysl\u00e1n\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho po\u010dtu protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany, umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00ed \u00fadery kdekoli uvnit\u0159 Ruska pod z\u00e1minkou preventivn\u00edho zma\u0159en\u00ed nebo reakce na hrozby z tohoto n\u00e1roda, nebo otev\u0159en\u00e9 vys\u00edl\u00e1n\u00ed PMC placen\u00fdch Pentagonem do konfliktn\u00ed z\u00f3ny nebude m\u00edt \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd v\u00fdznamn\u00fd vliv na jeho dynamiku. . Rusko ji\u017e ve sv\u00e9 \u201e\u00a0z\u00e1vod\u011b logistiky\u00a0<\/a>\u201c\/\u201e\u00a0opot\u0159ebovac\u00ed v\u00e1lce \u201c\u00a0<\/a>NATO daleko porazilo\u00a0, a to natolik, \u017ee\u00a0Sky News\u00a0<\/a>koncem kv\u011btna uvedlo, \u017ee Rusko vyr\u00e1b\u00ed t\u0159ikr\u00e1t v\u00edce gran\u00e1t\u016f ne\u017e NATO za \u010dtvrtinovou cenu.<\/p>\n

Jedin\u00e9, co tyto kroky d\u011blaj\u00ed, je vyprovokovat Rusko k tomu, aby opustilo svou svatou zdr\u017eenlivost a kone\u010dn\u011b na tyto provokace reagovalo, co\u017e by pak mohlo slou\u017eit k ospravedln\u011bn\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b p\u0159edem napl\u00e1novan\u00fdch eskala\u010dn\u00edch opat\u0159en\u00ed USA, kter\u00e1 by se snadno mohla rozvinout ve spir\u00e1lu kub\u00e1nsk\u00e9 hrani\u010d\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 krize, kterou jest\u0159\u00e1bi cht\u011bj\u00ed. Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed z t\u011bchto krok\u016f je ze v\u0161ech nejnebezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed kv\u016fli mo\u017enosti, \u017ee Rusko brzy zabije mnoho Ameri\u010dan\u016f a spust\u00ed tak \u201erecipro\u010dn\u011b\u201c eskalaci USA (jako by to mohlo zar\u00e1movat svou reakci).<\/p>\n

Celkov\u00fdm trendem je, \u017ee\u00a0z\u00e1stupn\u00e1 v\u00e1lka\u00a0<\/a>NATO-Rusko\u00a0<\/a>na Ukrajin\u011b se proto bude b\u011bhem l\u00e9ta d\u00e1le zintenziv\u0148ovat, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b pokud bude vyhl\u00e1\u0161ena tato navrhovan\u00e1 politika, a riskovat tak t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btovou v\u00e1lku \u0161patn\u00fdm odhadem v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee USA pot\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edmo za\u00fato\u010d\u00ed na rusk\u00e9 s\u00edly v konfliktn\u00ed z\u00f3na. Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b, \u017ee relativn\u011b pragmati\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed frakce USA by mohla nakonec zv\u00edt\u011bzit a bu\u010f tuto politiku potopit, nebo dohl\u00e9dnout na to, aby USA takto nereagovaly, pokud k tomu dojde, ale to nelze pova\u017eovat za samoz\u0159ejmost.<\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

USA pokra\u010duj\u00ed ve v\u00fdvoji sv\u00e9 politiky v\u016f\u010di konfliktu sm\u011brem k dal\u0161\u00ed eskalaci, aby kompenzovaly to,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":56530,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,39,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56529"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56529"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56529\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":56531,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56529\/revisions\/56531"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56530"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56529"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56529"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56529"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}