{"id":56306,"date":"2024-06-25T00:32:24","date_gmt":"2024-06-24T22:32:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=56306"},"modified":"2024-06-24T17:33:52","modified_gmt":"2024-06-24T15:33:52","slug":"odbornici-varuji-pred-blizici-se-globalni-dluhovou-krizi-kvuli-rostoucim-deficitum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/06\/25\/odbornici-varuji-pred-blizici-se-globalni-dluhovou-krizi-kvuli-rostoucim-deficitum\/","title":{"rendered":"Odborn\u00edci varuj\u00ed p\u0159ed bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00ed se glob\u00e1ln\u00ed dluhovou kriz\u00ed kv\u016fli rostouc\u00edm deficit\u016fm"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><strong>Jak dlouho mohou b\u00fdt rostouc\u00ed hory dluhu udr\u017eiteln\u00e9? Tato ot\u00e1zka vyvst\u00e1v\u00e1 zejm\u00e9na s ohledem na skute\u010dnost, \u017ee \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby op\u011bt neust\u00e1le rostou. St\u00e1ty nad\u00e1le utr\u00e1cej\u00ed mnohem v\u00edce pen\u011bz, ne\u017e vyd\u011bl\u00e1vaj\u00ed. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty i zem\u011b EU jsou na kritick\u00e9m prahu. Podle odborn\u00edk\u016f se konsolidace rozpo\u010dtu neobejde bez d\u016fsledn\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00ed. Ty ale maj\u00ed i negativn\u00ed dopady.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Zat\u00edmco vl\u00e1dy po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b hromad\u00ed obrovsk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed nov\u00e9ho dluhu, odborn\u00edci bij\u00ed na poplach ohledn\u011b hroz\u00edc\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed dluhov\u00e9 krize. Podle\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbo.gov\/publication\/60039\">ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy<\/a>\u00a0Rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9ho \u00fa\u0159adu Kongresu (CBO) se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee feder\u00e1ln\u00ed deficit USA dos\u00e1hne v roce 2024 7 procent HDP a do roku 2034 dos\u00e1hne st\u00e1le vysok\u00fdch 6,9 procenta HDP. Tento alarmuj\u00edc\u00ed trend se v\u0161ak neomezuje pouze na USA.\u00a0<strong>Evropsk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka (ECB) varovala, \u017ee zem\u011b euroz\u00f3ny budou muset v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch desetilet\u00edch zp\u0159\u00edsnit svou fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed politiku v pr\u016fm\u011bru o 2 procenta HDP, aby dluh sn\u00ed\u017eily na maastrichtskou hranici 60 procent HDP.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Jednodu\u0161e \u0159e\u010deno, jak velk\u00fd je rozpo\u010dtov\u00fd deficit, jako je tento: 7 procent slo\u017een\u00fdch za deset let zhruba zdvojn\u00e1sob\u00ed va\u0161e pen\u00edze. Proto\u017ee z nov\u00fdch dluh\u016f budou splatn\u00e9 i \u00faroky a slo\u017een\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 n\u00e1klady. To nejen zt\u011b\u017euje refinancov\u00e1n\u00ed star\u00fdch dluh\u016f, ale tak\u00e9 d\u00e1le omezuje fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed man\u00e9vrovac\u00ed prostor, proto\u017ee dluhov\u00e1 slu\u017eba zab\u00edr\u00e1 st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pod\u00edl na da\u0148ov\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edjmech.\u00a0<strong>CBO tak\u00e9 revidovala svou progn\u00f3zu leto\u0161n\u00edho deficitu USA a nyn\u00ed odhaduje, \u017ee dos\u00e1hne 2 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f.<\/strong>\u00a0V\u00fdrazn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst oproti p\u0159edchoz\u00edmu odhadu 1,5 bilionu dolar\u016f.<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"h-warnungen-vor-globaler-schuldenkrise\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\">Varov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed dluhovou kriz\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><strong>Eric Peters, CIO spole\u010dnosti One River Asset Management,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/hedge-fund-cio-were-approaching-debt-super-cycle-endgame\">varuje<\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee sv\u011bt \u201esm\u011b\u0159uje ke konci hry ve v\u00edcelet\u00e9m dluhov\u00e9m supercyklu\u201c.<\/strong> Poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee USA nejsou ve sv\u00fdch fisk\u00e1ln\u00edch probl\u00e9mech samy, proto\u017ee ECB uznala, \u017ee \u201etlak na ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 finance v zem\u00edch euroz\u00f3ny je nutn\u00fd, aby byly spln\u011bny po\u017eadavky st\u00e1rnouc\u00ed populace, zm\u011bny klimatu a vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed Spln\u011bn\u00ed v\u00fddaj\u016f na obranu do roku 2070 bude vy\u017eadovat fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed zp\u0159\u00edsn\u011bn\u00ed v pr\u016fm\u011bru o 3 procenta HDP.\u201c ECB varovala, \u017ee \u201eke sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed dluhu na hranici EU ve v\u00fd\u0161i 60 procent HDP do roku 2070 budou zem\u011b pot\u0159ebovat dal\u0161\u00ed 2 procenta.\u201c Peters tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee \u201eexistuje doslova Evropa v \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b neprovede takov\u00e9 \u0161krty bez existen\u010dn\u00ed krize. \u201ePokud by to ud\u011blali, t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u011b by to zp\u016fsobilo okam\u017eitou depresi a rozpad EU,\u201c vysv\u011btluje.<\/p>\n<p>Hroz\u00edc\u00ed dluhov\u00e1 krize se neomezuje pouze na vysp\u011bl\u00e9 ekonomiky, proto\u017ee zna\u010dnou dluhovou z\u00e1t\u011b\u017e nesou i n\u00edzkop\u0159\u00edjmov\u00e9 a rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00ed se ekonomiky. Podle\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/findevlab.org\/the-coming-debt-crisis\/\">zpr\u00e1vy laborato\u0159e Finance for Development Lab<\/a>\u00a0by a\u017e 35 rozvojov\u00fdch zem\u00ed mohlo za sou\u010dasn\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00edch podm\u00ednek p\u0159ekro\u010dit vysok\u00e9 rizikov\u00e9 prahy .\u00a0Zpr\u00e1va zjistila, \u017ee \u201eza konzervativn\u00edho sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, ve kter\u00e9m se finan\u010dn\u00ed podm\u00ednky vr\u00e1t\u00ed k pr\u016fm\u011bru z let 2015-19 s ni\u017e\u0161\u00edmi \u00farokov\u00fdmi sazbami a stabiln\u00edm sm\u011bnn\u00fdm kurzem, by toto nap\u011bt\u00ed pro v\u011bt\u0161inu (st\u0159edn\u00ed zem\u011b) alokovalo 10 procent sv\u00fdch vl\u00e1dn\u00edch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f na z\u00e1mo\u0159sk\u00fd dluh. servis (ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s 8 procenty v roce 2019) by se dal zvl\u00e1dnout.\u201c<\/p>\n<p><strong>Zpr\u00e1va v\u0161ak varuje, \u017ee \u201ekdy\u017e se vezmou v \u00favahu vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed re\u00e1ln\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby a zhodnocen\u00ed americk\u00e9ho dolaru, dluhov\u00e1 slu\u017eba rychle vzroste na \u00farove\u0148, kter\u00e1 by vy\u017eadovala velk\u00e9 extern\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed toky.\u201c<\/strong>\u00a0V tomto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i po\u010det zem\u00ed p\u0159evy\u0161uje riziko prahov\u00e9 hodnoty by se v subsaharsk\u00e9 Africe a Africe zdvojn\u00e1sobily z 10 na 18, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e ohro\u017eeny jsou zejm\u00e9na zem\u011b s ni\u017e\u0161\u00edm st\u0159edn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edjmem.<\/p>\n<p>Anne O. Krueger, b\u00fdval\u00e1 z\u00e1stupkyn\u011b gener\u00e1ln\u00edho \u0159editele Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho m\u011bnov\u00e9ho fondu,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.project-syndicate.org\/commentary\/avoiding-a-debt-crisis-in-low-income-countries-and-emerging-markets-by-anne-o-krueger-2023-12\">varuje<\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee\u00a0<strong>\u201epokud n\u011bkolik v\u011bt\u0161\u00edch rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00edch se zem\u00ed a zem\u00ed s n\u00edzk\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edjmy sou\u010dasn\u011b \u010del\u00ed rostouc\u00edm \u00farokov\u00fdm sazb\u00e1m a rostouc\u00ed neochot\u011b v\u011b\u0159itel\u016f prodlu\u017eovat sv\u016fj dluh, je pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee dojde ke glob\u00e1ln\u00ed dluhov\u00e9 krizi. aby vypukla.&#8220;<\/strong>\u00a0Aby se tomuto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i vyhnul, Krueger po\u017eaduje \u201emezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed dohodu, kter\u00e1 stanov\u00ed postupy pro podporu zadlu\u017een\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, co\u017e MMF umo\u017en\u00ed poskytovat p\u016fj\u010dky rychleji.&#8220; Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00fd fond v\u0161ak nem\u00e1 nic dobr\u00e9ho reputaci, nebo\u0165 jej\u00ed seznam po\u017eadavk\u016f \u010dasto d\u00e1le zhor\u0161uje situaci jednotliv\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f a posti\u017een\u00e9 st\u00e1ty na tom pot\u00e9 st\u00e1le nejsou l\u00e9pe.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Jak dlouho mohou b\u00fdt rostouc\u00ed hory dluhu udr\u017eiteln\u00e9? Tato ot\u00e1zka vyvst\u00e1v\u00e1 zejm\u00e9na s ohledem na&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":56307,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[45,371,276],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56306"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56306"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56306\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56307"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56306"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56306"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56306"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}