{"id":56229,"date":"2024-06-23T00:35:16","date_gmt":"2024-06-22T22:35:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=56229"},"modified":"2024-06-22T17:04:11","modified_gmt":"2024-06-22T15:04:11","slug":"velka-vymena-nemecko-roste-pouze-diky-imigraci","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/06\/23\/velka-vymena-nemecko-roste-pouze-diky-imigraci\/","title":{"rendered":"Velk\u00e1 v\u00fdm\u011bna: N\u011bmecko roste pouze d\u00edky imigraci"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><strong><span>Do roku 2045 se m\u00e1 po\u010det lid\u00ed v N\u011bmecku podle aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed progn\u00f3zy zv\u00fd\u0161it celkem o 800 000 na 85,5 milionu. To v\u0161ak p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed tak\u00e9 s obrovsk\u00fdm demografick\u00fdm posunem. Proto\u017ee tento popula\u010dn\u00ed r\u016fst je podporov\u00e1n pouze imigrac\u00ed.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span>Na p\u0159elomu tis\u00edcilet\u00ed progn\u00f3zy tvrdily, \u017ee po\u010det obyvatel N\u011bmecka klesne do roku 2050 pod 70 milion\u016f. Nyn\u00ed, zhruba o dv\u011b desetilet\u00ed pozd\u011bji, vypad\u00e1 situace \u00fapln\u011b jinak. V\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbsr.bund.de\/BBSR\/DE\/startseite\/topmeldungen\/bevoelkerungsprognose-2045.html\"><span>ned\u00e1vno zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00e9 progn\u00f3ze<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0Spolkov\u00fd institut pro stavebn\u00ed, urbanistick\u00fd a prostorov\u00fd v\u00fdzkum (BBSR) p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1,\u00a0\u017ee se po\u010det obyvatel ve Spolkov\u00e9 republice do roku 2045 dokonce m\u00edrn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed \u2013 ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed se sou\u010dasn\u00fdmi \u00fadaji o zhruba 800 000 na zhruba 85,5 milion\u016f lid\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Uv\u00e1\u017e\u00edte-li, \u017ee nap\u0159\u00edklad v roce 2000 N\u011bmeck\u00fd institut pro ekonomick\u00fd v\u00fdzkum p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dal, \u017ee do roku 2050 bude v N\u011bmecku \u017e\u00edt pouze 66 milion\u016f lid\u00ed, je jasn\u00e9, jak velk\u00fd vliv migrace m\u00e1 ji\u017e nyn\u00ed, o \u010dtvrt stolet\u00ed pozd\u011bji. Tento rozd\u00edl zhruba 20 milion\u016f lid\u00ed oproti sou\u010dasn\u00e9 studii lze vysv\u011btlit pouze efekty migrace. Imigrace prudce vzrostla zejm\u00e9na v posledn\u00edch letech \u2013 migra\u010dn\u00ed krize 2015\/2016 a \u00fat\u011bk milion\u016f Ukrajinc\u016f byly hlavn\u00edmi ud\u00e1lostmi. I v \u201enorm\u00e1ln\u00edch\u201c letech v\u0161ak do N\u011bmecka p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed kolem milionu lid\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>To v\u0161ak tak\u00e9 jasn\u011b ukazuje, jak velk\u00e9 demografick\u00e9 posuny pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b budou v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch dvou desetilet\u00edch. Zat\u00edmco \u201esta\u0159\u00ed N\u011bmci\u201c tak\u0159\u00edkaj\u00edc \u201evym\u00edraj\u00ed\u201c, proto\u017ee porodnost je ve sklep\u011b, p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed mlad\u00ed migranti \u2013 zejm\u00e9na z muslimsk\u00fdch kulturn\u00edch oblast\u00ed. N\u011bmecko druh\u00e9 poloviny 21. stolet\u00ed bude\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/3VxQsy6\"><span>extr\u00e9mn\u011b<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0odli\u0161n\u00e9 od toho p\u0159ed 25 lety. V\u00fdvoj, kter\u00fd lze pozorovat i v mnoha dal\u0161\u00edch evropsk\u00fdch zem\u00edch, tak\u017ee renomovan\u00ed auto\u0159i ji\u017e hovo\u0159\u00ed o \u201e\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/amzn.to\/4bcZWV5\"><span>sebevra\u017ed\u011b Evropy<\/span><\/a><span> \u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Zd\u00e1 se v\u0161ak, \u017ee progn\u00f3za BBSR vzhledem ke v\u0161em migra\u010dn\u00edm pohyb\u016fm masivn\u011b podhodnocuje imigra\u010dn\u00ed faktor. Jak se m\u016f\u017ee st\u00e1t, \u017ee \u00fastav do roku 2045 po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 jen s n\u00e1r\u016fstem 300 000 lid\u00ed ze zahrani\u010d\u00ed?\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tagesschau.de\/inland\/gesellschaft\/bevoelkerung-deutschland-wachstum-100.html\"><span>Tagesschau<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0p\u0159ij\u00edm\u00e1 toto tvrzen\u00ed zcela nekriticky. Byla zde statistika pouze \u201ep\u0159emazan\u00e1\u201c? Ostatn\u011b na z\u00e1klad\u011b p\u0159edchoz\u00edch \u010d\u00edsel by se do roku 2045 muselo o\u010dek\u00e1vat kolem 15 a\u017e 25 milion\u016f imigrant\u016f \u2013 m\u00ednus ti lid\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed se (op\u011bt) st\u011bhuj\u00ed do zahrani\u010d\u00ed. Nezapom\u00ednejte, \u017ee mnoho n\u011bmeck\u00fdch ob\u010dan\u016f se tak\u00e9\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.destatis.de\/DE\/Themen\/Gesellschaft-Umwelt\/Bevoelkerung\/Wanderungen\/_inhalt.html#sprg416792\"><span>st\u011bhuje do zahrani\u010d\u00ed<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee mezi d\u011btmi \u0161koln\u00edho v\u011bku ji\u017e existuj\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/rmx.news\/article\/german-school-system-overwhelmed-by-migrants-warns-president-of-german-teachers-association\/\"><span>velk\u00e9 probl\u00e9my<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0(nedostatek jazykov\u00fdch znalost\u00ed, zvy\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se negramotnost atd.), proto\u017ee je zde p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 mnoho student\u016f s migrantsk\u00fdm p\u016fvodem, o kter\u00e9 nen\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 dostate\u010dn\u011b pe\u010dovat, lze si p\u0159edstavit, jak\u00e1 bude situace za dvacet, dvacet p\u011bt let. Je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce, proto\u017ee\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bpb.de\/kurz-knapp\/zahlen-und-fakten\/datenreport-2021\/bevoelkerung-und-demografie\/329526\/kinder-mit-migrationshintergrund\/\"><span>kolem 40 procent<\/span><\/a><span>\u00a0d\u011bt\u00ed (lid\u00ed do 18 let)\u00a0ji\u017e m\u00e1 migra\u010dn\u00ed p\u016fvod.\u00a0Se siln\u00fdm vzestupn\u00fdm trendem. N\u011bmecko se v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch letech velmi v\u00fdrazn\u011b zm\u011bn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Do roku 2045 se m\u00e1 po\u010det lid\u00ed v N\u011bmecku podle aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed progn\u00f3zy zv\u00fd\u0161it celkem o&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":56230,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[119,84,3284],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56229"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56229"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56229\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56230"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56229"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56229"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56229"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}