{"id":56169,"date":"2024-06-22T00:32:25","date_gmt":"2024-06-21T22:32:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=56169"},"modified":"2024-06-21T14:51:13","modified_gmt":"2024-06-21T12:51:13","slug":"greg-c-bruno-valka-ciny-s-tchaj-wanem-jiz-probiha","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/06\/22\/greg-c-bruno-valka-ciny-s-tchaj-wanem-jiz-probiha\/","title":{"rendered":"Greg C. Bruno: V\u00e1lka \u010c\u00edny s Tchaj-wanem ji\u017e prob\u00edh\u00e1"},"content":{"rendered":"
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V Tchajwansk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu chce \u010c\u00edna zvr\u00e1tit status quo bez jedin\u00e9ho v\u00fdst\u0159elu<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

KINMEN, Tchaj-wan – Shun Da byl m\u00edle mimo kurz. Lo\u010f pluj\u00edc\u00ed pod \u010d\u00ednskou vlajkou, opr\u00e1vn\u011bn\u00e1 \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdm \u00fa\u0159adem pro n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost vybagrovat mo\u0159sk\u00e9 dno pro nov\u00fd most pobl\u00ed\u017e Xiamen, m\u00edsto toho obeplula tchajwanskou pob\u0159e\u017en\u00ed str\u00e1\u017e na ostrov\u011b Dadan, asi 16 kilometr\u016f jihoz\u00e1padn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

„Nem\u011blo by to tu b\u00fdt,“ \u0159ekl Asheng, palubn\u00ed pomocn\u00edk na palub\u011b tchajwansk\u00e9 turistick\u00e9 lodi, kter\u00fd vedl novin\u00e1\u0159e p\u0159es uzav\u0159enou vodn\u00ed cestu – a n\u011bkolik set metr\u016f od z\u00e1di Shun Da. „Ale to se d\u011bje po\u0159\u00e1d,“ dodal.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco Lidov\u00e1 osvobozeneck\u00e1 arm\u00e1da minul\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc dokon\u010dila dva dny vojensk\u00fdch cvi\u010den\u00ed kolem Tchaj-wanu, kter\u00e1 \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da popsala jako \u201ezkou\u0161ku \u0161at\u016f\u201c pro tot\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00fatok, veden\u00ed samovl\u00e1dn\u00e9ho ostrova se soust\u0159edilo jinam: na okraj, ve tm\u011b. prostory, kde pekingsk\u00e1 taktika \u201e\u0161ed\u00e9 z\u00f3ny\u201c ti\u0161e zasahuje do tchajwansk\u00e9 suverenity.<\/span><\/p>\n

„Stalo se to norm\u00e1ln\u00ed realitou, se kterou se mus\u00edme vypo\u0159\u00e1dat,“ \u0159ekl vysok\u00fd vl\u00e1dn\u00ed \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edk, kter\u00fd kv\u016fli citlivosti probl\u00e9mu mluvil pod podm\u00ednkou anonymity. \u201eNejsou to jen vojensk\u00e1 cvi\u010den\u00ed, ale t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 ka\u017edodenn\u00ed z\u00e1sahy do tchajwansk\u00e9ho vzdu\u0161n\u00e9ho prostoru, n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch cest a dokonce i politiky.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1 hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lka, kterou je t\u011b\u017e\u0161\u00ed odhalit ne\u017e kinetick\u00e1 taktika, ale nem\u00e9n\u011b hroziv\u00e1, je na vzestupu. Zat\u00edmco se nov\u00fd tchajwansk\u00fd prezident Lai Ching-te – William Lai – sna\u017e\u00ed udr\u017eet k\u0159ehk\u00fd m\u00edr v Tchajwansk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu, \u010c\u00edna zvy\u0161uje sv\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed o politick\u00e9, kognitivn\u00ed a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed \u00fatoky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tv\u016fj c\u00edl? Pozorovatel\u00e9 \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed, \u017ee zm\u011bna status quo bez v\u00fdst\u0159elu.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Tchajwansk\u00fd prezident Lai Ching-te je v hled\u00e1\u010dku Pekingu. Obr\u00e1zek: X Screengrab \/ Taipei News Photographer Association<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

\u201eTlak \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch komunist\u016f na Tchaj-wan je v\u0161ezahrnuj\u00edc\u00ed, zejm\u00e9na na diplomatick\u00e9 \u00farovni,\u201c \u0159ekl ned\u00e1vno tchajwansk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Lin Chia-lung. \u201e\u010c\u00edn\u0161t\u00ed komunist\u00e9 nad\u00e1le m\u011bn\u00ed status quo. Vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed nov\u00fd norm\u00e1l, vyv\u00edjej\u00ed na n\u00e1s tlak v ka\u017ed\u00e9 f\u00e1zi a sna\u017e\u00ed se n\u00e1s nahlodat a anektovat.“<\/span><\/p>\n

Neautorizovan\u00fd pr\u016fchod Shun Da vodami kontrolovan\u00fdmi Tchajwanem je jen jedn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edkladem tohoto mls\u00e1n\u00ed. Dal\u0161\u00edch je nespo\u010det.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na br\u00edfinku pro novin\u00e1\u0159e minul\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc v\u00fdzkumn\u00edci z Institutu pro v\u00fdzkum n\u00e1rodn\u00ed obrany a bezpe\u010dnosti, think tanku p\u0159idru\u017een\u00e9ho k tchajwansk\u00e9 arm\u00e1d\u011b, uvedli p\u016fl tuctu taktik \u0161ed\u00e9 z\u00f3ny, kter\u00e9 \u010c\u00edna pravideln\u011b pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 k \u00fatoku na suverenitu Tchaj-wanu, chov\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 je t\u011bsn\u011b pod hranic\u00ed pr\u00e1h jedn\u00e9 konven\u010dn\u00ed konfrontace. Pat\u0159\u00ed mezi n\u011b ekonomick\u00fd n\u00e1tlak, sabot\u00e1\u017e kritick\u00e9 infrastruktury, obt\u011b\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed drony a lod\u011bmi a kybernetick\u00e9 \u00fatoky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Peking se dokonce zapojuje do \u201ekognitivn\u00ed v\u00e1lky\u201c, tedy dezinforma\u010dn\u00edch kampan\u00ed, jejich\u017e c\u00edlem je ovlivnit ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed ve prosp\u011bch \u010c\u00edny. Mezi obl\u00edben\u00e1 t\u00e9mata pat\u0159\u00ed zobrazov\u00e1n\u00ed Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f jako nespolehliv\u00e9ho partnera, kter\u00fd vraz\u00ed kl\u00edn mezi Tchaj-pej a Washington, a ozna\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed tchajwansk\u00fdch v\u016fdc\u016f za \u201eseparatisty\u201c, kte\u0159\u00ed cht\u011bj\u00ed vyhl\u00e1sit nez\u00e1vislost Tchaj-wanu.<\/span><\/p>\n

„Ur\u010dit\u011b jsme sv\u011bdky n\u00e1r\u016fstu aktivity v \u0161ed\u00e9 z\u00f3n\u011b a pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b uvid\u00edme st\u00e1le v\u00edce \u00fato\u010dn\u00edk\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed se st\u00e1le v\u00edce p\u0159ibli\u017euj\u00ed k Tchaj-wanu, aby signalizovali, \u017ee vl\u00e1da Lai nem\u016f\u017ee br\u00e1nit suverenitu Tchaj-wanu,“ \u0159ekl J. Michael Cole z Taipei- zalo\u017een\u00fd bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed analytik.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eNebezpe\u010d\u00ed je v tom, \u017ee \u010d\u00edm bl\u00ed\u017ee se p\u0159ibli\u017euj\u00ed, t\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed je provoz, t\u00edm vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed je pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee v ur\u010dit\u00e9m okam\u017eiku dojde k nedorozum\u011bn\u00edm, sr\u00e1\u017ek\u00e1m nebo nehod\u00e1m. To by pak mohlo v\u00e9st k pom\u011brn\u011b rychl\u00e9 eskalaci. Pochybuji, \u017ee by \u010c\u00edna v takov\u00e9 situaci deeskalovala.“<\/span><\/p>\n

Incidenty v \u0161ed\u00e9 z\u00f3n\u011b se v posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch zv\u00fd\u0161ily, kdy\u017e \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 \u0161pion\u00e1\u017en\u00ed bal\u00f3ny, drony a civiln\u00ed \u010dluny proch\u00e1zely \u00fazem\u00edm kontrolovan\u00fdm Tchaj-wanem. Nap\u011bt\u00ed vyvrcholilo v \u00fanoru, kdy\u017e se \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 ryb\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e1 lo\u010f pron\u00e1sledovan\u00e1 tchajwanskou pob\u0159e\u017en\u00ed str\u00e1\u017e\u00ed p\u0159evrhla a zabila dva lidi. O n\u011bkolik dn\u00ed pozd\u011bji se zd\u00e1lo, \u017ee \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 pob\u0159e\u017en\u00ed str\u00e1\u017e provedla odvetu inspekc\u00ed tchajwansk\u00e9 turistick\u00e9 lodi pobl\u00ed\u017e Kinmenu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od n\u00e1stupu prezidenta Lai do \u00fa\u0159adu do\u0161lo k dal\u0161\u00edm \u00fatok\u016fm. Minul\u00fd t\u00fdden zadr\u017eely tchajwansk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady \u010c\u00ed\u0148ana, kter\u00fd \u0159\u00eddil motorov\u00fd \u010dlun do p\u0159\u00edstavu u \u00fast\u00ed \u0159eky Tamsui, kter\u00e1 vede do hlavn\u00edho m\u011bsta Tchaj-pej. Podle vojensk\u00fdch pozorovatel\u016f jsou tyto incidenty zam\u011b\u0159eny na testov\u00e1n\u00ed tchajwansk\u00e9 obrany a vy\u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed schopnosti ostrova reagovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee Tchaj-wan je odtr\u017eenou provinci\u00ed a ned\u00edlnou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed Lidov\u00e9 republiky. P\u0159esto\u017ee Tchaj-wan nikdy nebyl pod kontrolou \u010cLR, Peking sl\u00edbil, \u017ee v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pot\u0159eby Tchaj-wan \u201eznovu sjednot\u00ed\u201c silou.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kinetick\u00e1 v\u00e1lka by v\u0161ak byla velmi n\u00e1kladn\u00e1. Bloomberg Economics odhaduje, \u017ee v\u00e1lka o Tchaj-wan by oslabila glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku asi o 10 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f, tedy asi o 10 %. Vzhledem k rizik\u016fm m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt v\u00e1lka v \u0161ed\u00e9 z\u00f3n\u011b atraktivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va Centra pro strategick\u00e1 a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed studia, think-tanku se s\u00eddlem ve Washingtonu DC, nazna\u010duje, \u017ee Peking by mohl takovou taktiku, vedenou svou pob\u0159e\u017en\u00ed str\u00e1\u017e\u00ed a donucovac\u00edmi org\u00e1ny, pou\u017e\u00edt k prost\u00e9 karant\u00e9n\u011b Tchaj-wanu, sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e jej obkl\u00ed\u010dit. Od\u0159\u00edznut\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstupu by\u0165 jen k jednomu p\u0159\u00edstavu, jako je Kaohsiung na jihu, by bylo pro Tchaj-wan a jeho spojence obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 zabr\u00e1nit.<\/span><\/p>\n

„Mo\u017enosti takov\u00fdch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f byla v\u011bnov\u00e1na mal\u00e1 pozornost, ale z kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9ho hlediska je karant\u00e9na pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e invaze nebo vojensk\u00e1 blok\u00e1da,“ uv\u00e1d\u00ed zpr\u00e1va. \u201eVedlo by to tak\u00e9 k v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed nejistot\u011b ohledn\u011b toho, jak m\u016f\u017ee Tchaj-wan a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed spole\u010denstv\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinn\u011b reagovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

L\u00edd\u0159i v Tchaj-peji tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee nejlep\u0161\u00edm zp\u016fsobem, jak se br\u00e1nit \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdm akc\u00edm, je zv\u00fd\u0161it v\u00fddaje na obranu a pos\u00edlit vazby se spojenci. „Mus\u00edme roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it n\u00e1\u0161 arzen\u00e1l… a pou\u010dit se z Ukrajiny,“ \u0159ekl Wang Ting-yu, vysok\u00fd z\u00e1konod\u00e1rce z tchajwansk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dnouc\u00ed Demokratick\u00e9 pokrokov\u00e9 strany. „Dost nen\u00ed nikdy dost.“ Mus\u00edme pos\u00edlit na\u0161i dom\u00e1c\u00ed kapacitu.“<\/span><\/p>\n

Na pob\u0159e\u017en\u00edm ostrov\u011b Kinmen, kde Shun Da ned\u00e1vno proplula uzav\u0159en\u00fdmi tchajwansk\u00fdmi vodn\u00edmi cestami, jsou obavy z \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch akc\u00ed tlumen\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Tchajwansk\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 z\u00e1kladna na ostrov\u011b Shihyu, vid\u011bn\u00e1 za p\u0159ist\u00e1vac\u00edmi bari\u00e9rami pod\u00e9l ostrova Lieyu na ostrovech Kinmen, 10. srpna 2022. Obr\u00e1zek: Twitter \/ Screengrab<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

\u00da\u0159edn\u00edci zde hovo\u0159\u00ed o spolupr\u00e1ci s \u010c\u00ednou; Kinmen se nach\u00e1z\u00ed jen p\u00e1r kilometr\u016f od pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed pevniny. Druh\u00fd den ned\u00e1vn\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho cvi\u010den\u00ed v Pekingu nav\u0161t\u00edvil m\u00edstostarosta okresu Kinmen \u010c\u00ednu, aby projednal sout\u011b\u017e v mezipouli\u010dn\u00edm plav\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eM\u00e1m strach z \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 invaze? Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b m\u00e1m obavy,\u201c \u0159ekl m\u00edstostarosta Li Wen-Liang. „Ale nem\u011bli bychom zav\u00edrat komunika\u010dn\u00ed kan\u00e1ly, kter\u00e9 jsme vybudovali ze strachu.“<\/span><\/p>\n

Ahming, op\u00e1len\u00fd tchajwansk\u00fd ryb\u00e1\u0159 s b\u00edl\u00fdmi vousy v Kinmenu, byl je\u0161t\u011b uvoln\u011bn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. \u0158ekl, \u017ee ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 aktivity \u010c\u00edny v \u0161ed\u00e9 z\u00f3n\u011b m\u011bly pozitivn\u00ed dopad na jeho pr\u00e1ci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Proto\u017ee tchajwansk\u00e1 pob\u0159e\u017en\u00ed str\u00e1\u017e pravideln\u011b hl\u00eddkuje ve vod\u00e1ch, kde lov\u00ed, \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 trawlery ji\u017e do tchajwansk\u00fdch vod ve velk\u00e9m nevplouvaj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

„Nemysl\u00edm si, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna je tak \u0161patn\u00e1, jak si lid\u00e9 mysl\u00ed,“ \u0159ekl Ahming, kdy\u017e po dni str\u00e1ven\u00e9m na mo\u0159i obratn\u011b rozmot\u00e1val svou ryb\u00e1\u0159skou s\u00ed\u0165. „V\u017edy uberou palec, daj\u00ed palec.“ Pokud opravdu cht\u011bj\u00ed pou\u017e\u00edt n\u00e1sil\u00ed, nem\u016f\u017eeme nic d\u011blat.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

V Tchajwansk\u00e9m pr\u016flivu chce \u010c\u00edna zvr\u00e1tit status quo bez jedin\u00e9ho v\u00fdst\u0159elu KINMEN, Tchaj-wan – Shun…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":56170,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[30,333,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56169"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56169"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56169\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":56171,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56169\/revisions\/56171"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56170"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56169"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56169"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56169"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}