{"id":56125,"date":"2024-06-21T00:48:57","date_gmt":"2024-06-20T22:48:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=56125"},"modified":"2024-06-20T16:08:13","modified_gmt":"2024-06-20T14:08:13","slug":"andrew-korybko-rusky-pakt-o-vzajemne-obrane-se-severni-koreou-je-geopolitickou-zmenou-hry","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/06\/21\/andrew-korybko-rusky-pakt-o-vzajemne-obrane-se-severni-koreou-je-geopolitickou-zmenou-hry\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Rusk\u00fd pakt o vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 obran\u011b se Severn\u00ed Koreou je geopolitickou zm\u011bnou hry"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Zvy\u0161uje s\u00e1zky v nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9 h\u0159e USA na jadern\u00e9 ku\u0159e s Ruskem na Ukrajin\u011b, urychluje \u201eoto\u010den\u00ed (zp\u011bt) USA do Asie\u201c a m\u016f\u017ee tak uv\u011bznit \u010c\u00ednu a USA ve spir\u00e1le eskalace, kter\u00e1 posune novou studenou v\u00e1lku ven z Evropy.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Rusko a Severn\u00ed Korea pr\u00e1v\u011b uzav\u0159ely\u00a0vz\u00e1jemn\u00fd pakt o obran\u011b\u00a0<\/a>b\u011bhem cesty prezidenta Putina do Pchjongjangu, kter\u00e1 n\u00e1sledovala po n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bv\u011b jeho prot\u011bj\u0161ku Kim \u010cong-una ve Vladivostoku loni v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed, o n\u00ed\u017e jsme analyzovali\u00a0zde\u00a0<\/a>. Tato dohoda m\u011bn\u00ed geopolitickou hru ze t\u0159\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00edch d\u016fvod\u016f: zvy\u0161uje s\u00e1zky v\u00a0nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9 h\u0159e USA o jadern\u00e9 ku\u0159e\u00a0<\/a>s Ruskem na\u00a0Ukrajin\u011b\u00a0<\/a>; urychluje \u201e\u00a0Pivot (zp\u011bt) do Asie \u201c\u00a0<\/a>USA\u00a0; a mohl by tak uv\u011bznit \u010c\u00ednu a USA ve spir\u00e1le eskalace, kter\u00e1 p\u0159esune\u00a0novou studenou v\u00e1lku\u00a0<\/a>z Evropy.<\/p>\n

Abychom to vysv\u011btlili, prvn\u00ed v\u00fdsledek lze interpretovat jako jednu ze sl\u00edben\u00fdch asymetrick\u00fdch reakc\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>Ruska\u00a0na to, \u017ee Z\u00e1pad vyzbrojuje Ukrajinu. Pokud Rusko dos\u00e1hne vojensk\u00e9ho pr\u016flomu p\u0159es frontovou linii, \u010deho\u017e vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed \u010dlenov\u00e9 NATO jako z\u00e1minky k zah\u00e1jen\u00ed\u00a0konven\u010dn\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>intervence\u00a0<\/a>, kter\u00e1 v Evrop\u011b\u00a0vyvol\u00e1 kub\u00e1nskou pokrajovou krizi\u00a0<\/a>, pak by Severn\u00ed Korea mohla vyvolat svou vlastn\u00ed krizi v Asii, aby p\u0159ipomn\u011bla USA o principu \u201evz\u00e1jemn\u011b zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9ho zni\u010den\u00ed\u201c (MAD).<\/p>\n

Expert z Valdajsk\u00e9ho klubu Dmitrij Suslov, kter\u00fd je tak\u00e9 \u010dlenem rusk\u00e9 rady pro zahrani\u010dn\u00ed a obrannou politiku a z\u00e1stupcem \u0159editele pro sv\u011btovou ekonomiku a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed politiku na moskevsk\u00e9 Vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 \u0161kole, publikoval \u010dl\u00e1nek na RT, kde poznamenal, \u017ee USA \u201e\u00a0ztratily strach \u201c.\u00a0houbov\u00e9ho mraku\u00a0<\/a>\u201c. Navrhl proto \u201edemonstrativn\u00ed\u201c jadern\u00fd test, aby vyd\u011bsil z\u00e1padn\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 \u0161tv\u00e1\u010de, ale nov\u00fd pakt vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 obrany Ruska se Severn\u00ed Koreou by mohl slou\u017eit stejn\u00e9mu \u00fa\u010delu.<\/p>\n

V z\u00e1padn\u00edm my\u0161len\u00ed je Severn\u00ed Korea synonymem jadern\u00e9ho d\u011bsu a t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, tak\u017ee v\u011bdom\u00ed, \u017ee by mohla symetricky eskalovat v Asii ze solidarity s Ruskem v reakci na eskalaci USA v Evrop\u011b, by americk\u00e9 politiky mohlo p\u0159im\u011bt dvakr\u00e1t p\u0159em\u00fd\u0161let o p\u0159ekro\u010den\u00ed rusk\u00fdch \u010derven\u00fdch \u010dar. tam. Koneckonc\u016f, u\u017e te\u010f by bylo dost obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 zvl\u00e1dnout eskala\u010dn\u00ed \u017eeb\u0159\u00edk v jedn\u00e9 kub\u00e1nsk\u00e9 krizov\u00e9 krizi, nato\u017e ve dvou ve stejnou dobu na opa\u010dn\u00fdch konc\u00edch Eurasie.<\/p>\n

Pokud jde o druh\u00fd bod o urychlen\u00ed americk\u00e9ho \u201eoto\u010den\u00ed (zp\u011bt) do Asie\u201c, tento proces se ji\u017e rozv\u00edj\u00ed, jak dokazuje zp\u016fsob, jak\u00fdm USA utahuj\u00ed\u00a0svou omezuj\u00edc\u00ed smy\u010dku kolem \u010c\u00edny\u00a0<\/a>na prvn\u00edm ostrovn\u00edm \u0159et\u011bzci prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm sv\u00e9\u00a0nov\u011b vytvo\u0159en\u00e9 \u201e Squad\u201c\u00a0<\/a>s Austr\u00e1li\u00ed, Filip\u00ednami a Japonskem. I tak se USA st\u00e1le dr\u017e\u00ed sv\u00e9 politick\u00e9 fantazie u\u0161t\u011bd\u0159it Rusku strategickou por\u00e1\u017eku, a proto jejich nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 vojensk\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edtomnost v Evrop\u011b po roce 2022 dosud nebyla omezena a p\u0159esm\u011brov\u00e1na do Asie.<\/p>\n

Pokud Rusko za\u010dne prov\u00e1d\u011bt pravideln\u00e1 cvi\u010den\u00ed se Severn\u00ed Koreou a p\u0159eveze do t\u00e9to zem\u011b \u0161pi\u010dkov\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 vybaven\u00ed, pak by se USA mohly c\u00edtit nuceny urychlit sv\u016fj \u201ePivot (zp\u011bt) do Asie\u201c na \u00fakor udr\u017een\u00ed tlaku na Rusko v Evropa. N\u00e1hl\u00e9 vyv\u00e1\u017een\u00ed pozornosti USA by mohlo p\u0159im\u011bt n\u011bkter\u00e9 jejich spojence v NATO p\u0159ehodnotit konven\u010dn\u00ed intervenci na Ukrajin\u011b, proto\u017ee USA by to ji\u017e nemusely schvalovat kv\u016fli pot\u00ed\u017e\u00edm se zvl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00edm nov\u011b nalezen\u00e9ho nap\u011bt\u00ed souvisej\u00edc\u00edho se Severn\u00ed Koreou.<\/p>\n

A kone\u010dn\u011b, jak\u00fdkoli hmatateln\u00fd pokrok v urychlen\u00ed americk\u00e9ho \u201eoto\u010den\u00ed (zp\u011bt) do Asie\u201c by sn\u00ed\u017eil mo\u017enost, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna a \u010c\u00edna v brzk\u00e9 dob\u011b\u00a0normalizuj\u00ed sv\u00e9 vazby\u00a0<\/a>, proto\u017ee by to mohlo b\u00fdt katalyz\u00e1torem samoudr\u017euj\u00edc\u00edho cyklu eskalace, proto\u017ee \u010c\u00edna reaguje na kroky USA. a pak USA reaguj\u00ed na \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 a tak d\u00e1le a tak d\u00e1le. USA nemohly souhlasit s omezen\u00edm sv\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edtomnosti v severov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asii v r\u00e1mci spekulativn\u00edho velk\u00e9ho kompromisu s \u010c\u00ednou kv\u016fli kvalitativn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 hrozb\u011b, kterou p\u0159edstavuje Ruskem podporovan\u00e1 Severn\u00ed Korea.<\/p>\n

Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by \u010c\u00edna n\u011bkdy souhlasila s nevyrovnanou dohodou s USA v\u00fdm\u011bnou za normalizaci jejich vazeb nebo alespo\u0148 sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed americk\u00e9ho tlaku na Lidovou republiku, jako je tlak, kter\u00fd by si zachoval jakoukoli p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u011b pos\u00edlenou vojenskou p\u0159\u00edtomnost USA v severov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asii, tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 lze vylou\u010dit. V takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by se \u010d\u00ednsko-americk\u00e9 vazby mohly snadno dostat do pasti samoudr\u017euj\u00edc\u00edho cyklu vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 eskalace, jeho\u017e v\u00fdsledkem by bylo, \u017ee Asie rychle vyst\u0159\u00edd\u00e1 Evropu jako vrchol d\u011bji\u0161t\u011b nov\u00e9 studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.<\/p>\n

Abych to v\u0161echno shrnul, pakt o vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 obran\u011b Ruska se Severn\u00ed Koreou je geopolitickou zm\u011bnou hry, proto\u017ee pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b uv\u011bzn\u00ed \u010c\u00ednu a USA ve spir\u00e1le eskalace, kter\u00e1 funguje ve prosp\u011bch Kremlu t\u00edm, \u017ee vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed podm\u00ednky pro zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed americk\u00e9ho tlaku na ni v Evrop\u011b. Ne\u017e se to projev\u00ed, potrv\u00e1 to \u010das, aby se USA mohly na Ukrajin\u011b eskalovat a\/nebo otev\u0159\u00edt dal\u0161\u00ed frontu v Eurasii (nap\u0159.\u00a0St\u0159edn\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>Asie\u00a0<\/a>a\/nebo\u00a0Ji\u017en\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>Kavkaz\u00a0<\/a>), tak\u017ee se v\u0161echno m\u016f\u017ee je\u0161t\u011b zhor\u0161it, ne\u017e se to zlep\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Zvy\u0161uje s\u00e1zky v nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9 h\u0159e USA na jadern\u00e9 ku\u0159e s Ruskem na Ukrajin\u011b, urychluje \u201eoto\u010den\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":56126,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,1644,502,102,22],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56125"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56125"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56125\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56126"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56125"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56125"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56125"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}