{"id":55764,"date":"2024-06-15T00:42:06","date_gmt":"2024-06-14T22:42:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=55764"},"modified":"2024-06-14T15:33:15","modified_gmt":"2024-06-14T13:33:15","slug":"stephen-bryen-velka-evropska-valka-na-obzoru","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/06\/15\/stephen-bryen-velka-evropska-valka-na-obzoru\/","title":{"rendered":"Stephen Bryen: Velk\u00e1 evropsk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka na obzoru"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Strat\u00e9gov\u00e9 NATO se z\u0159ejm\u011b domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee na Rusko roste tlak, aby ukon\u010dilo ofenzivu na Ukrajin\u011b a usilovalo o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed. Asi se m\u00fdl\u00ed.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Nebezpe\u010d\u00ed, \u017ee se v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed do Evropy, roste. Nebezpe\u010d\u00ed evropsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky nebylo nikdy v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vojen\u0161t\u00ed experti se shoduj\u00ed, \u017ee Ukrajina pomalu, ale ne\u00faprosn\u011b prohr\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u00e1lku proti Rusku. Ale co to znamen\u00e1?<\/span><\/p>\n

Ukrajina z\u0159ejm\u011b nem\u00e1 dostatek voj\u00e1k\u016f, aby pokra\u010dovala v boji proti Rus\u016fm mnohem d\u00e9le. Po\u010det ob\u011bt\u00ed na Ukrajin\u011b se ka\u017ed\u00fd den pohybuje ve stovk\u00e1ch a o boj\u00edch se nyn\u00ed kv\u016fli vysok\u00e9mu po\u010dtu ob\u011bt\u00ed mluv\u00ed jako o \u201eml\u00fdnku na maso\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko m\u00e1 velkou rezervu vycvi\u010den\u00fdch bojovn\u00edk\u016f, odhadem kolem p\u016fl milionu; Ukrajina nem\u00e1 t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 z\u00e1lohy, kter\u00e9 by ji\u017e nebyly nasazeny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nicm\u00e9n\u011b rusk\u00e1 strategie pro koncovku je nepr\u016fhledn\u00e1. N\u011bkdy Rusov\u00e9 mluv\u00ed o tom, \u017ee cht\u011bj\u00ed vytvo\u0159it \u201en\u00e1razn\u00edkovou z\u00f3nu\u201c, kter\u00e1 by chr\u00e1nila rusk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed p\u0159ed \u00fatoky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed balistick\u00fdch raket dlouh\u00e9ho doletu a \u0159\u00edzen\u00fdch st\u0159el v\u0161ak vylu\u010duje n\u00e1razn\u00edkovou z\u00f3nu, pokud nezasahuje t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 k Dn\u011bpru. Ani tehdy by n\u00e1razn\u00edkov\u00e1 z\u00f3na nechr\u00e1nila Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed ani Krym.<\/span><\/p>\n

NATO nyn\u00ed zav\u00e1d\u00ed na Ukrajinu F-16, kter\u00e9 budou operovat z rumunsk\u00fdch leti\u0161\u0165. Budou vyzbrojeny \u0159\u00edzen\u00fdmi st\u0159elami dlouh\u00e9ho doletu JASSM a st\u0159elami vzduch-vzduch AIM-120.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bude muset Rusko zni\u010dit rumunskou leteckou z\u00e1kladnu, nebo NATO opust\u00ed my\u0161lenku zah\u00e1jit odtud mise F-16, kter\u00e9 n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed podez\u0159\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee zam\u00ed\u0159\u00ed na Krym?<\/span><\/p>\n

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Krym je pro Rusko extr\u00e9mn\u011b citliv\u00fd bod. Ukrajina ned\u00e1vno vyp\u00e1lila t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 salvy raket dlouh\u00e9ho doletu na c\u00edle na Krymu, v\u010detn\u011b leti\u0161\u0165 a p\u0159\u00edstav\u016f, zejm\u00e9na v Sevastopolu. P\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 se, \u017ee Ukrajina brzy podnikne nov\u00fd pokus o zni\u010den\u00ed Ker\u010dsk\u00e9ho mostu.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u011bt\u0161inu t\u011bchto st\u0159el dodalo NATO (hlavn\u011b USA) a v\u0161echny maj\u00ed c\u00edle zalo\u017een\u00e9 na sou\u0159adnic\u00edch dodan\u00fdch NATO.<\/span><\/p>\n

NATO pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 \u0161pion\u00e1\u017en\u00ed letadla, radary dlouh\u00e9ho dosahu a satelity k ur\u010den\u00ed p\u0159esn\u00fdch sou\u0159adnic sv\u00fdch ukrajinsk\u00fdch klient\u016f. Rusov\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed spol\u00e9haj\u00ed na svou protivzdu\u0161nou obranu, \u017ee zablokuj\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161inu \u0161kod, z\u016fstali ohledn\u011b t\u011bchto \u00fatok\u016f kousav\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00datoky na Krym nemaj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd skute\u010dn\u00fd vojensk\u00fd \u00fa\u010del, proto\u017ee Ukrajina nem\u00e1 pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 pozemn\u00ed s\u00edly, aby tam svedla bitvu. C\u00edlem je pon\u00ed\u017eit Rusy, ale pravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd v\u00fdsledek by mohl b\u00fdt opa\u010dn\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee Rusko na rostouc\u00ed tlak odpov\u00ed n\u00e1sil\u00edm, a\u0165 u\u017e \u00fatokem na Charkov, Od\u011bsu \u010di Kyjev, nebo n\u011bkter\u00e1 ze zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdch m\u00edst.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko m\u00e1 v\u00edce raket dlouh\u00e9ho doletu, ne\u017e m\u016f\u017ee NATO dodat, a Kyjev nem\u00e1 dostatek funk\u010dn\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany, kter\u00e9 by jeho m\u011bsta chr\u00e1nily p\u0159ed zni\u010den\u00edm. Jak\u00e1 je tedy strategie NATO, krom\u011b potrest\u00e1n\u00ed Ruska, zat\u00edmco Ukrajina prohraje v\u00e1lku?<\/span><\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee NATO se sna\u017e\u00ed p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit Rusy, \u017ee za jejich por\u00e1\u017eku Ukrajinou zaplat\u00ed velmi vysokou cenu. N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed v NATO mohou v\u011b\u0159it, \u017ee v Rusku poroste tlak na sta\u017een\u00ed a zastaven\u00ed ned\u00e1vn\u00fdch \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdch operac\u00ed, mo\u017en\u00e1 dokonce usiluj\u00edc\u00ed o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bohu\u017eel nen\u00ed d\u016fvod se domn\u00edvat, \u017ee Rusko lze p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit, aby zastavilo sv\u00e9 operace proti Ukrajin\u011b nebo aby zv\u00e1\u017eilo p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed. P\u0159es v\u0161echny \u0159e\u010di o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed by to prosp\u011blo Ukrajin\u011b, ne Rusku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusov\u00e9 vyslali vlastn\u00ed zpr\u00e1vu do Washingtonu t\u00edm, \u017ee vyslali na Kubu rusk\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 lod\u011b a jadern\u00e9 ponorky.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Rusk\u00e1 fregata Admir\u00e1l Gor\u0161kov, vybaven\u00e1 hypersonick\u00fdmi zbran\u011bmi, na cest\u011b na Kubu. Obr\u00e1zek: Russia Military<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Zda to Washington \u201edostane\u201c, je sporn\u00e9. V\u0161e ukazuje opa\u010dn\u00fdm sm\u011brem: Rusko je st\u00e1le v\u00edce rozzloben\u00e9 kv\u016fli \u00fatok\u016fm na sv\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed a na Krym.<\/span><\/p>\n

Skute\u010dn\u00fdm tlakem uvnit\u0159 rusk\u00e9ho veden\u00ed je v\u00fdrazn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161it \u00fatoky na ukrajinsk\u00e9 c\u00edle. Tato poselstv\u00ed byla p\u0159ed\u00e1na na s\u00e9rii soukrom\u00fdch setk\u00e1n\u00ed b\u011bhem ekonomick\u00e9ho summitu v Petrohrad\u011b tento m\u011bs\u00edc.<\/span><\/p>\n

Putin to ne\u0159ekl, alespo\u0148 ne nahlas, ale dal\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 rusk\u00e9ho veden\u00ed ventilovala sv\u016fj hn\u011bv a frustraci a pokusila se urazit Ukrajince i NATO.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed evrop\u0161t\u00ed l\u00edd\u0159i, zejm\u00e9na francouzsk\u00fd prezident Emmanuel Macron, se mo\u017en\u00e1 rozhodnou pro v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1lku, aby naklonili ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed ve sv\u016fj prosp\u011bch.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vysl\u00e1n\u00ed vojsk a nab\u00eddka st\u00edha\u010dek a dal\u0161\u00edch zbran\u00ed by se dala vylo\u017eit jako touha po v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1lce v Evrop\u011b. Skute\u010dnost, \u017ee se zd\u00e1, \u017ee USA stoj\u00ed za pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00edm z\u00e1kladen F-16 v Rumunsku, by mohla b\u00fdt Bidenov\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem, jak vyvolat v\u00e1lku v Evrop\u011b a zachr\u00e1nit sv\u00e9 upadaj\u00edc\u00ed politick\u00e9 postaven\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

(Nebo o tom mo\u017en\u00e1 Biden nev\u00ed, ale jeho nohsledi p\u0159i\u0161li s touto \u201enovou\u201c strategi\u00ed, aby zachr\u00e1nili k\u016f\u017ei sv\u00e9ho \u0161\u00e9fa).<\/span><\/p>\n

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Francouzsk\u00fd prezident Emmanuel Macron (L) zdrav\u00ed americk\u00e9ho prezidenta Joea Bidena p\u0159ed bilater\u00e1ln\u00edm setk\u00e1n\u00edm b\u011bhem summitu G7 v Carbis Bay, Cornwall, 12. \u010dervna 2021. Obr\u00e1zek: Asia Times Files \/ AFP<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Takov\u00e9 my\u0161lenky jsou ze sv\u00e9 podstaty riskantn\u00ed, proto\u017ee obrann\u00e1 schopnost NATO je ostudn\u011b n\u00edzk\u00e1. Vystavovat alianci a budoucnost Evropy riziku jen kv\u016fli setrv\u00e1n\u00ed ve funkci je samo o sob\u011b hanebn\u00e9 a pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b trestn\u00e9, pokud je to pravda.<\/span><\/p>\n

Neexistuje tak\u00e9 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd d\u016fkaz, \u017ee by ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed podporovalo velkou v\u00e1lku. Je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee v Evrop\u011b jsou zadr\u017eovan\u00e9 protiv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 n\u00e1lady, kter\u00e9 propuknou zprava i zleva a pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b i ze st\u0159edu.<\/span><\/p>\n

NATO se ji\u017e nyn\u00ed m\u011bn\u00ed v agresivn\u00ed spojenectv\u00ed, co\u017e by mohlo v\u00e9st k jeho rozpadu a odm\u00edtnut\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

*<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Stephen Bryen je hlavn\u00edm zpravodajem Asia Times. P\u016fsobil jako n\u00e1\u010deln\u00edk \u0161t\u00e1bu podv\u00fdboru pro Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod V\u00fdboru pro zahrani\u010dn\u00ed vztahy Sen\u00e1tu USA a jako z\u00e1stupce n\u00e1m\u011bstka ministra obrany pro politiku.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Strat\u00e9gov\u00e9 NATO se z\u0159ejm\u011b domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee na Rusko roste tlak, aby ukon\u010dilo ofenzivu na Ukrajin\u011b…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":634,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[283,39,22,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55764"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=55764"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55764\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/634"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=55764"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=55764"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=55764"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}