{"id":55688,"date":"2024-06-14T00:35:42","date_gmt":"2024-06-13T22:35:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=55688"},"modified":"2024-06-13T16:05:31","modified_gmt":"2024-06-13T14:05:31","slug":"john-mauldin-geopoliticky-kolaps","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/06\/14\/john-mauldin-geopoliticky-kolaps\/","title":{"rendered":"John Mauldin: Geopolitick\u00fd kolaps"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

P\u00ed\u0161i v\u00e1m z Kapsk\u00e9ho M\u011bsta v Ji\u017en\u00ed Africe, kde se mi dostalo v\u0159el\u00e9ho p\u0159ijet\u00ed a p\u0159ipomenut\u00ed toho, jak moc m\u011b bav\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed cestov\u00e1n\u00ed (teda a\u017e na ten jet lag!). N\u00e1\u0161 sv\u011bt m\u00e1 tolik div\u016f, kter\u00e9 v\u011bt\u0161ina lid\u00ed nikdy neuvid\u00ed. Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nen\u00ed „nikde tak kr\u00e1sn\u011b jako doma“, ale radost z toho, \u017ee vid\u00edm i jin\u00e1 m\u00edsta.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ale tato rozmanitost a rozmanitost znamen\u00e1 tak\u00e9 konflikty a rizika. Ka\u017ed\u00e1 zem\u011b m\u00e1 sv\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy, kter\u00e9 mus\u00ed jej\u00ed vl\u00e1da samoz\u0159ejm\u011b h\u00e1jit. Skute\u010dnost, \u017ee cel\u00fd sv\u011bt nen\u00ed v neust\u00e1l\u00e9 otev\u0159en\u00e9 v\u00e1lce, je jedn\u00edm z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch \u00fasp\u011bch\u016f modern\u00ed doby. Nechceme ji ztratit… a p\u0159esto bychom mohli. Tento osud je bl\u00ed\u017e, ne\u017e si mnoho lid\u00ed mysl\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee je obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 ps\u00e1t cel\u00e9 \u010dl\u00e1nky na cest\u00e1ch, co\u017e je je\u0161t\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed kv\u016fli jet lagu, dnes se pod\u011bl\u00edm o p\u00e1r my\u0161lenek o geopolitice od n\u011bkter\u00fdch na\u0161ich lektor\u016f Konference o strategick\u00fdch investic\u00edch. Mysl\u00edm, \u017ee v\u00e1s to bude fascinovat, a pokud se v\u00e1m to bude l\u00edbit, douf\u00e1m, \u017ee se sem p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok vr\u00e1t\u00edte. Poj\u010fme tedy za\u010d\u00edt.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u017donglov\u00e1n\u00ed s tal\u00ed\u0159i<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Za\u010dnu na\u0161\u00edm hlavn\u00edm \u0159e\u010dn\u00edkem SIC, gener\u00e1lem ve v\u00fdslu\u017eb\u011b Davidem Petraeusem, kter\u00fd byl tak\u00e9 \u0159editelem CIA za prezidenta Obamy a nyn\u00ed je ve v\u00fdkonn\u00e9 rad\u011b KKR. Procestoval cel\u00fd sv\u011bt v\u00edc ne\u017e kdokoli jin\u00fd, abych tak \u0159ekl. Gener\u00e1l Petraeus m\u011bl na SIC velmi zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 my\u0161lenky \u2013 tak zaj\u00edmav\u00e9, \u017ee je zde nemohu reprodukovat. Souhlasil pouze s t\u00edm, \u017ee bude mluvit za smluvn\u00edch podm\u00ednek, kter\u00e9 n\u00e1m br\u00e1n\u00ed zve\u0159ejnit jeho p\u0159ipom\u00ednky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mohu v\u0161ak citovat z rozhovoru, kter\u00fd ud\u011blal s m\u00fdm partnerem Edem D’Agostinem po \u00fatoku Hamasu na Izrael. Mysl\u00edm, \u017ee je to dobr\u00fd za\u010d\u00e1tek, proto\u017ee popisuje, pro\u010d je tak t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 uniknout geopolitick\u00fdm rizik\u016fm. Ed za\u010dal t\u00edm, \u017ee po\u017e\u00e1dal gener\u00e1la Petraeuse o koment\u00e1\u0159 k prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm Jamieho Dimona a Raye Dalia, kte\u0159\u00ed byli oba velmi znepokojeni t\u00edm, \u017ee by \u00fatoky Hamasu mohly eskalovat do v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho konfliktu. Co to znamenalo pro sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d veden\u00fd USA?<\/span><\/p>\n

„Pokud o tom p\u0159em\u00fd\u0161l\u00edte metaforicky, jsme t\u00edm mu\u017eem v cirkuse, kter\u00fd spolu se sv\u00fdmi spojenci a partnery mus\u00ed udr\u017eovat v pohybu celou \u0159adu tal\u00ed\u0159\u016f. Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed z t\u011bchto tal\u00ed\u0159\u016f, kter\u00fd je z\u0159eteln\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v\u0161echny ostatn\u00ed, je deska, \u017ee vztahy USA a Z\u00e1padu s \u010c\u00ednou Ale je tu i deska pro Rusko, nen\u00ed t\u0159eba zmi\u0148ovat v\u00fdzvy, kter\u00e9 p\u0159edstavuje mimo Ukrajinu, ale i na Ukrajin\u011b Severn\u00ed Koreu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nechyb\u00ed samoz\u0159ejm\u011b ani \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 deska a deska pro \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 zmocn\u011bnce, kam samoz\u0159ejm\u011b pat\u0159\u00ed Ham\u00e1s, Hizball\u00e1h, H\u00fas\u00edov\u00e9 v Jemenu a pak \u0161\u00editsk\u00e9 milice v Ir\u00e1ku a na r\u016fzn\u00fdch dal\u0161\u00edch m\u00edstech v Z\u00e1livu. A maj\u00ed i dal\u0161\u00ed diskr\u00e9tn\u00ed tal\u00ed\u0159e. Jejich jadern\u00fd program, jejich raketov\u00fd program a tak d\u00e1le.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Existuj\u00ed Telle\u0159i, kte\u0159\u00ed st\u00e1le zastupuj\u00ed isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 extremistick\u00e9 organizace po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b, kter\u00e9 jsme poznali tvrd\u011b. Mus\u00edme je hl\u00eddat a vyv\u00edjet tlak, proto\u017ee pokud to neud\u011bl\u00e1te, jako tomu bylo v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Isl\u00e1msk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu, pot\u00e9, co jsme st\u00e1hli na\u0161e posledn\u00ed bojov\u00e9 jednotky z Ir\u00e1ku na konci roku 2011 a pot\u00e9, co premi\u00e9r tolik \u0159ekl to, co jsme v n\u00e1sledn\u00e9m dos\u00e1hli spole\u010dn\u011b za t\u0159i roky b\u011bhem \u201en\u00e1valu\u201c, se m\u016f\u017ee Isl\u00e1msk\u00fd st\u00e1t p\u0159eskupit, pokud je ponech\u00e1n mimo dohled.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mimochodem, pro situaci ohledn\u011b Ham\u00e1su a p\u00e1sma Gazy existuje n\u011bkolik ponau\u010den\u00ed, kter\u00fdm se m\u016f\u017eeme tak\u00e9 v\u011bnovat pozd\u011bji. Pak jsou tu desky, kter\u00e9 p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed r\u016fzn\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed a nest\u00e1tn\u00ed akt\u00e9ry, v\u010detn\u011b isl\u00e1msk\u00fdch extremist\u016f a zlo\u010dinc\u016f v kyberprostoru, v\u0161echny r\u016fzn\u00e9 v\u00fdzvy, kter\u00fdm tam \u010del\u00edme.<\/span><\/p>\n

V \u0159ad\u011b zem\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b n\u011bkter\u00fdch na\u0161ich spojenc\u016f v NATO, jsou probl\u00e9my s dom\u00e1c\u00edm populismem. A samoz\u0159ejm\u011b m\u00e1me n\u011bkter\u00e9 z t\u011bchto probl\u00e9m\u016f i tady doma, vzhledem k dvojstrannosti, kter\u00e1 charakterizuje mnoho z toho, co se d\u011bje na Capitol Hill. Existuje tedy cel\u00e1 \u0159ada v\u00fdzev, kter\u00e9 jsou opravdu obrovsk\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159idejte k tomu dopady glob\u00e1ln\u00edho oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed, mnohem \u010dast\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a z\u00e1va\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pov\u011btrnostn\u00ed jevy, hurik\u00e1ny, z\u00e1plavy, lesn\u00ed po\u017e\u00e1ry atd., kter\u00fdch jsme tak\u00e9 sv\u011bdky. Pokud se na to pod\u00edv\u00e1te a pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b v d\u016fsledku toho, tato posledn\u00ed kategorie je v\u00fdznamnou migrac\u00ed lid\u00ed. To je pro n\u00e1s samoz\u0159ejm\u011b velk\u00e1 v\u00fdzva, kdy\u017e se pod\u00edv\u00e1te na to, co se d\u011bje p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm za na\u0161\u00ed ji\u017en\u00ed hranic\u00ed, ale i jin\u00fdmi cestami. Na\u0161i evrop\u0161t\u00ed spojenci jsou v\u0161ak tak\u00e9 konfrontov\u00e1ni s v\u00fdzvami, kter\u00e9 se objevuj\u00ed ve St\u0159edomo\u0159\u00ed, z v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evropy atd.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je tedy pravda, \u017ee Jamie popisuje sv\u011bt takov\u00fd, jak\u00fd je, a Ray Dalio jej popisuje takov\u00fd, jak\u00fd je. A mysl\u00edm, \u017ee to podtrhuje d\u016fvod, pro\u010d se hodnocen\u00ed geopolitick\u00e9ho rizika st\u00e1v\u00e1 st\u00e1le d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed investi\u010dn\u00edho procesu.“<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e se nad t\u00edm zamysl\u00edte, rozsah t\u011bchto v\u00fdzev je ohromuj\u00edc\u00ed. Ale je jich v\u00edc, mnohem v\u00edc.<\/span><\/p>\n

„Hork\u00e1 v\u00e1lka v chladn\u00e1 m\u00edsta“<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

V SIC n\u00e1s nadchla Pippa Malmgren, analyti\u010dka a futuristka, jej\u00ed\u017e \u017eivotopis t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nem\u00e1 obdoby. Byla zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed asistentkou prezidenta George W. Bushe, strat\u00e9gem UBS a mnoha dal\u0161\u00edmi. Ed D’Agostino d\u011blal rozhovor s Pippou v SIC. Za\u010dal ot\u00e1zkou na jej\u00ed provokativn\u00ed prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed v roce 2021, \u017ee t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka ji\u017e prob\u00edh\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

„V tomto \u010dl\u00e1nku Substack jsem tak\u00e9 tvrdil, \u017ee t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka bude velmi, velmi odli\u0161n\u00e1 od prvn\u00ed a druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, proto\u017ee kdy\u017e to \u0159eknete, lid\u00e9 okam\u017eit\u011b maj\u00ed vizi tank proti tanku a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed lo\u010f proti n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed lodi a jedna Spousta lidsk\u00fdch \u017eivot\u016f, ale toto je mnohem v\u00edce technologick\u00e1 v\u00e1lka. Tato konfrontace se odehr\u00e1v\u00e1, popsal jsem ji jako \u201eJsme v hork\u00e9 v\u00e1lce na chladn\u00fdch m\u00edstech\u201c, \u010d\u00edm\u017e mysl\u00edm vesm\u00edr, voln\u00e9 mo\u0159e \u2013 jsme. nyn\u00ed v n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edch konfliktech…<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

P\u00ed\u0161i v\u00e1m z Kapsk\u00e9ho M\u011bsta v Ji\u017en\u00ed Africe, kde se mi dostalo v\u0159el\u00e9ho p\u0159ijet\u00ed a…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":23679,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,2181,276],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55688"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=55688"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55688\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23679"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=55688"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=55688"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=55688"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}