{"id":55488,"date":"2024-06-11T00:40:05","date_gmt":"2024-06-10T22:40:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=55488"},"modified":"2024-06-10T17:10:55","modified_gmt":"2024-06-10T15:10:55","slug":"snazi-se-rozpoutat-jadernou-valku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/06\/11\/snazi-se-rozpoutat-jadernou-valku\/","title":{"rendered":"Sna\u017e\u00ed se rozpoutat jadernou v\u00e1lku?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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St\u00e1l\u00e1 cesta ke t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce pokra\u010duje. Podpora Ukrajiny ze strany USA a NATO ve v\u00e1lce s Ruskem byla \u00fapln\u00fdm selh\u00e1n\u00edm, ale to jim nezabr\u00e1nilo v eskalaci v\u00e1lky pomoc\u00ed nov\u00fdch zbran\u00ed a taktiky.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Rusko na eskalaci odpov\u011bd\u011blo vlastn\u00ed eskalac\u00ed, a to na ka\u017ed\u00e9m kroku. V jak\u00e9m bod\u011b se racion\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u016fdci na Z\u00e1pad\u011b (pokud n\u011bjac\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b existuj\u00ed), pozastav\u00ed, pova\u017euj\u00ed v\u00e1lku na Ukrajin\u011b za ztracenou, deeskaluj\u00ed a hledaj\u00ed smlouvu, kter\u00e1 by v\u00e1lku ukon\u010dila?<\/p>\n

Zat\u00edm tomu nic nenasv\u011bd\u010duje. V\u0161echny zn\u00e1mky sp\u00ed\u0161e ukazuj\u00ed na dal\u0161\u00ed eskalaci, kter\u00e1 je jistou cestou k jadern\u00e9 v\u00e1lce. Co zp\u016fsobilo eskalaci?<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1pad dodal Ukrajin\u011b p\u0159esn\u00e9 d\u011blost\u0159electvo HIMARS, ale to z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti selhalo, proto\u017ee se Rusov\u00e9 rychle nau\u010dili ru\u0161it nav\u00e1d\u011bc\u00ed syst\u00e9my GPS, \u010d\u00edm\u017e rakety vych\u00fdlily z kurzu.<\/p>\n

To neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee Rusov\u00e9 sest\u0159el\u00ed nebo zablokuj\u00ed ka\u017edou raketu HIMARS, kterou Ukrajina odp\u00e1l\u00ed. N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed to v\u017edy projdou. Celkov\u011b ale byla \u00fa\u010dinnost raket ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm omezen\u00e1.<\/p>\n

USA a NATO dodaly Ukrajin\u011b tak\u00e9 tanky Abrams, Leopard a Challenger a tak\u00e9 bojov\u00e1 vozidla Bradley, kter\u00e1 na boji\u0161ti vzpl\u00e1la. Vy\u017eaduj\u00ed tak\u00e9 intenzivn\u00ed \u00fadr\u017ebu, kterou Ukrajina nezbytn\u011b nem\u016f\u017ee zajistit a pro podm\u00ednky ukrajinsk\u00e9ho boji\u0161t\u011b jsou \u010dasto nevhodn\u00e9. Mnoho ukrajinsk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f se dokonce vyj\u00e1d\u0159ilo, \u017ee d\u00e1vaj\u00ed p\u0159ednost rusk\u00e9mu vybaven\u00ed p\u0159ed vybaven\u00edm NATO.<\/p>\n

\u017d\u00e1dn\u00e9 magick\u00e9 zbran\u011b<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Mezit\u00edm syst\u00e9my protiraketov\u00e9 obrany Patriot ji\u017e nejsou schopny sest\u0159elit rusk\u00e9 hypersonick\u00e9 st\u0159ely a byly zni\u010deny kus po kusu, ka\u017ed\u00fd stoj\u00ed 1 miliardu dolar\u016f. F-16 jsou dal\u0161\u00ed slibovanou st\u0159\u00edbrnou kulkou. Rusko m\u00e1 ale nejmodern\u011bj\u0161\u00ed syst\u00e9m protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany na sv\u011bt\u011b. Mnoho letadel sest\u0159el\u00ed rusk\u00e9 protiletadlov\u00e9 baterie S-400 a dal\u0161\u00ed syst\u00e9my.<\/p>\n

D\u00e1le se jedn\u00e1 o star\u00e9, zastaral\u00e9 modely ze sklad\u016f NATO, kter\u00e9 doslou\u017eily. A nemohou s nimi l\u00e9tat ani ukrajin\u0161t\u00ed piloti, proto\u017ee sotva um\u00ed \u010d\u00edst anglicky (v\u00fdcvikov\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edru\u010dky a p\u0159\u00edru\u010dky \u00fadr\u017eby jsou v\u0161echny v angli\u010dtin\u011b) a na v\u00fdcvik nem\u011bli dost \u010dasu.<\/p>\n

St\u00e1t se kompetentn\u00edm st\u00edhac\u00edm pilotem F-16 trv\u00e1 asi dva roky; Ukrajinci m\u011bli sotva \u0161est m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, aby se to nau\u010dili. F-16 se tak\u00e9 nehod\u00ed do \u010dasto drsn\u00fdch podm\u00ednek na ukrajinsk\u00fdch leti\u0161t\u00edch (vy\u017eaduj\u00ed nedot\u010den\u00e9 p\u0159ist\u00e1vac\u00ed dr\u00e1hy, aby se zabr\u00e1nilo vniknut\u00ed \u00falomk\u016f do jejich motor\u016f b\u011bhem vzletu).<\/p>\n

I kdy\u017e je lze provozovat ze z\u00e1kladen NATO, otev\u00edr\u00e1 se t\u00edm dal\u0161\u00ed mezera.<\/p>\n

Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed bl\u00e1zniv\u00fd pl\u00e1n NATO<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Jak\u00fd je dal\u0161\u00ed bl\u00e1zniv\u00fd pl\u00e1n NATO? Zde je nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edklad. USA a jejich spojenci dali zelenou raketov\u00fdm \u00fatok\u016fm hluboko uvnit\u0159 Ruska s pou\u017eit\u00edm balistick\u00fdch raket ATACMS vyroben\u00fdch v USA s dosahem a\u017e 190 mil.<\/p>\n

Tyto \u00fatoky zas\u00e1hly civiln\u00ed c\u00edle, jako je rusk\u00e9 m\u011bsto Belgorod, a kritick\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 c\u00edle, jako jsou rusk\u00e9 varovn\u00e9 syst\u00e9my jadern\u00fdch raket. Oba typy \u00fatok\u016f vedou k n\u00e1siln\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 reakci, v\u010detn\u011b kone\u010dn\u00e9ho zni\u010den\u00ed cel\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b.<\/p>\n

\u00datok na rusk\u00fd syst\u00e9m v\u010dasn\u00e9ho varov\u00e1n\u00ed je zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed provokac\u00ed. Ukrajina za\u00fato\u010dila na tento radarov\u00fd syst\u00e9m, kter\u00fd Rusko pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 k detekci p\u0159\u00edchoz\u00edch ICBM vyzbrojen\u00fdch jadern\u00fdmi zbran\u011bmi, pomoc\u00ed dron\u016f dodan\u00fdch Brit\u00e1ni\u00ed.<\/p>\n

USA a Rusko ji\u017e dodr\u017euj\u00ed takzvanou doktr\u00ednu \u201est\u0159\u00edlet na varov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee kdy\u017e odhal\u00edte p\u0159il\u00e9taj\u00edc\u00ed jadern\u00e9 st\u0159ely, nebudete \u010dekat, a\u017e dos\u00e1hnou sv\u00e9ho c\u00edle.<\/p>\n

M\u00edsto toho zah\u00e1j\u00edte proti\u00fatok, jakmile zpozorujete st\u0159ely. Pokud jde o jadernou v\u00e1lku, je to \u201epou\u017eij ji, nebo ji prohraj\u201c.<\/p>\n

To stav\u00ed sv\u011bt na ost\u0159\u00ed no\u017ee. Z\u00e1sah do radarov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu, kter\u00fd je sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed jadern\u00e9 obrany, vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v t\u00e9to obran\u011b slep\u00e9 m\u00edsto, tak\u017ee je je\u0161t\u011b zraniteln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u016f\u010di sest\u0159elen\u00ed.<\/p>\n

A p\u0159esto\u017ee Ukrajina technicky mohla rakety na Rusko odp\u00e1lit, nemohla by tak u\u010dinit bez p\u0159esn\u00fdch \u00fadaj\u016f o zam\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed poskytnut\u00fdch Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty a jejich spojenci v NATO. Jak by podle v\u00e1s USA reagovaly, kdyby Mexiko za\u00fato\u010dilo na americk\u00e9 c\u00edle pomoc\u00ed \u00fadaj\u016f o c\u00edlen\u00ed poskytnut\u00fdch Ruskem? P\u0159\u00edmo by obvinili Rusko a pohnali by k odpov\u011bdnosti.<\/p>\n

A dal\u0161\u00ed ot\u00e1zka: Pro\u010d by Ukrajina na tento radarov\u00fd syst\u00e9m v\u016fbec \u00fato\u010dila? Ukrajina nem\u00e1 jadern\u00e9 rakety a nem\u00e1 tedy d\u016fvod ohro\u017eovat ruskou jadernou obranu. Radar nem\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd vliv na pozemn\u00ed v\u00e1lku na Ukrajin\u011b. Nebylo to ani leti\u0161t\u011b, ani muni\u010dn\u00ed sklad \u010di jin\u00fd vojensky relevantn\u00ed c\u00edl.<\/p>\n

Tento pl\u00e1n je jen dal\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edkladem nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9 eskalace ze strany USA a NATO a p\u0159iv\u00e1d\u00ed sv\u011bt o krok bl\u00ed\u017ee k jadern\u00e9 v\u00e1lce. Ukrajina je p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 r\u00e1da, \u017ee s t\u00edm souhlas\u00ed.<\/p>\n

„Neboj se!“<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Zast\u00e1nci eskalace tyto obavy odm\u00edtaj\u00ed a tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee jsme ji\u017e p\u0159ekro\u010dili n\u011bkolik \u201e\u010derven\u00fdch \u010dar\u201c a \u017ee Rusko proti n\u00e1m nepodniklo p\u0159\u00edm\u00e1 odvetn\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed. Mo\u017en\u00e1 proti Ukrajin\u011b, ale ne proti n\u00e1m. M\u016f\u017eeme tedy j\u00edt nap\u0159ed a p\u0159ej\u00edt dal\u0161\u00ed \u010dervenou \u010d\u00e1ru, Rusov\u00e9 nic neud\u011blaj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Za prv\u00e9, je to jen dal\u0161\u00ed d\u016fkaz toho, \u017ee Vladimir Putin nen\u00ed krvela\u010dn\u00fd \u0161\u00edlenec, kter\u00fd se nenech\u00e1 odradit. Zjevn\u011b m\u016f\u017ee a je si v\u011bdom nebezpe\u010d\u00ed eskalace. Nechce v\u00e1lku s USA a NATO. Pro\u010d by m\u011bl?<\/p>\n

Za druh\u00e9, a co je d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, vyzbrojov\u00e1n\u00ed a vyzbrojov\u00e1n\u00ed Ukrajiny NATO nikdy nebylo pro Rusko \u010dervenou lini\u00ed. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed pozorovatel\u00e9 jednodu\u0161e p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dali, \u017ee nasazen\u00ed HIMARS, ATACMS a tank\u016f bude pro Rusko p\u0159edstavovat \u010dervenou \u010d\u00e1ru. Ale Rusko to nikdy v\u00fdslovn\u011b ne\u0159eklo. Objevila se varov\u00e1n\u00ed o obecn\u00e9m riziku eskalace, ale nebyly tam \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed \u010derven\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1ry.<\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 \u00fatoky na ruskou p\u016fdu jsou v\u0161ak n\u011bco jin\u00e9ho. Rusk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Sergej Lavrov a s\u00e1m Putin v\u00fdslovn\u011b varovali p\u0159ed t\u00edm, aby NATO napom\u00e1halo \u00fatok\u016fm na rusk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed. To je ten rozd\u00edl. Zde je to, co \u0159ekl Dmitrij Medved\u011bv, m\u00edstop\u0159edseda Rady bezpe\u010dnosti Ruska:<\/p>\n

Rusko se domn\u00edv\u00e1, \u017ee v\u0161echny zbran\u011b dlouh\u00e9ho doletu pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00e9 Ukrajinou jsou ji\u017e p\u0159\u00edmo \u0159\u00edzeny voj\u00e1ky ze zem\u00ed NATO. To nen\u00ed vojensk\u00e1 podpora, to je \u00fa\u010dast ve v\u00e1lce proti n\u00e1m. A takov\u00e9 akce by se mohly st\u00e1t casus belli (p\u016fdou pro v\u00e1lku<\/em>\u00a0)\u00a0. Nikdo dnes nem\u016f\u017ee vylou\u010dit mo\u017enost, \u017ee konflikt dosp\u011bje do posledn\u00ed f\u00e1ze.<\/em><\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed pot\u0159eba g\u00e9nia, aby pochopil, co mysl\u00ed \u201ekone\u010dnou f\u00e1z\u00ed\u201c konfliktu. Nyn\u00ed Medved\u011bv \u010dasto d\u011bl\u00e1 provokativn\u00ed prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed. Ale poslechn\u011bte si koment\u00e1\u0159e n\u00e1m\u011bstka rusk\u00e9ho ministra zahrani\u010d\u00ed Sergeje Rjabkova. Jsou formulov\u00e1ny tak ost\u0159e, jak jen m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt diplomatick\u00e9 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed:<\/p>\n

Chci varovat americk\u00e9 v\u016fdce p\u0159ed \u0161patn\u00fdmi v\u00fdpo\u010dty, kter\u00e9 by mohly m\u00edt fat\u00e1ln\u00ed n\u00e1sledky. Z nezn\u00e1m\u00fdch d\u016fvod\u016f podce\u0148uj\u00ed z\u00e1va\u017enost odm\u00edtnut\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by mohli dostat.<\/em><\/p>\n

Ale d\u016fvody pro to nejsou nezn\u00e1m\u00e9. Spo\u010d\u00edvaj\u00ed v tom, \u017ee Z\u00e1pad \u0159\u00edd\u00ed neschopn\u00ed a bezohledn\u00ed lid\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed nev\u011bd\u00ed, co \u010din\u00ed. Nech\u00e1pou, \u017ee si hraj\u00ed s ohn\u011bm.<\/p>\n

Jak za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 v\u00e1lka<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Za\u010dal jsem studovat jadernou v\u00e1lku v roce 1969 a pokra\u010doval jsem ve studiu po cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b v\u0161ech p\u0159edn\u00edch myslitel\u016f na t\u00e9ma jadern\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. I kdy\u017e se odborn\u00edci v n\u011bkter\u00fdch bodech neshodnou, v\u0161ichni se shoduj\u00ed na jednom:<\/p>\n

Nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed cestou k jadern\u00e9 v\u00e1lce je eskalace. Nikdo se neprobud\u00ed a ne\u0159ekne: „Hezk\u00fd den pro jadernou v\u00e1lku.“ Za\u010dn\u011bme jedn\u00edm.“<\/p>\n

M\u00edsto toho bude v\u00e1lka v\u00fdsledkem procesu, ve kter\u00e9m jedna strana zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed s\u00e1zky, druh\u00e1 strana odpov\u00ed stejn\u011b a pokra\u010duje v eskalaci, a tak d\u00e1le v po sob\u011b jdouc\u00edch kolech, dokud jedna strana nezapadne do rohu a nebude m\u00edt jinou mo\u017enost, ne\u017e pou\u017e\u00edt jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b v existen\u010dn\u00ed reakci.<\/p>\n

Je ironi\u00ed, \u017ee v t\u00e9to situaci by m\u00e9n\u011b ohro\u017een\u00e1 strana mohla ve skute\u010dnosti zah\u00e1jit jadernou v\u00e1lku, aby z\u00edskala v\u00fdhodu prvn\u00edho \u00faderu. V\u00fdsledkem je zni\u010den\u00ed: nejen t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka, ale mo\u017en\u00e1 i konec v\u011bt\u0161iny lidsk\u00fdch \u017eivot\u016f na Zemi. Ti, kte\u0159\u00ed p\u0159e\u017eij\u00ed, by si pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b p\u0159\u00e1li, aby to neud\u011blali.<\/p>\n

To je nepochopiteln\u00e9. Ukrajina se sna\u017e\u00ed zat\u00e1hnout USA p\u0159\u00edmo do v\u00e1lky s americk\u00fdmi botami na zemi. Ud\u00e1losti nemus\u00ed doj\u00edt tak daleko.<\/p>\n

Mohli bychom b\u00fdt zni\u010deni v jadern\u00e9 t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce, pokud tato bezohledn\u00e1 eskalace bude pokra\u010dovat. Zastav\u00ed to n\u011bkdo?<\/p>\n

Autor Tyler Durden<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

St\u00e1l\u00e1 cesta ke t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce pokra\u010duje. Podpora Ukrajiny ze strany USA a NATO ve…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":55489,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1652,716,365],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55488"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=55488"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55488\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":55490,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55488\/revisions\/55490"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/55489"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=55488"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=55488"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=55488"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}