{"id":55450,"date":"2024-06-10T00:29:43","date_gmt":"2024-06-09T22:29:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=55450"},"modified":"2024-06-10T06:00:45","modified_gmt":"2024-06-10T04:00:45","slug":"andrew-korybko-koho-muze-rusko-vyzbrojit-jako-asymetrickou-odpoved-na-vyzbrojovani-ukrajiny-zapadem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/06\/10\/andrew-korybko-koho-muze-rusko-vyzbrojit-jako-asymetrickou-odpoved-na-vyzbrojovani-ukrajiny-zapadem\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Koho m\u016f\u017ee Rusko vyzbrojit jako asymetrickou odpov\u011b\u010f na vyzbrojov\u00e1n\u00ed Ukrajiny Z\u00e1padem?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Rusko by mohlo v\u00e1\u017en\u011b uva\u017eovat o tom, \u017ee se spolehne na sv\u00e9ho \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho strategick\u00e9ho partnera a vyzbroj\u00ed Osu odporu, aby bu\u010f donutilo Ameri\u010dany k poni\u017euj\u00edc\u00edmu sta\u017een\u00ed alespo\u0148 z \u010d\u00e1sti z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asie, zejm\u00e9na ze S\u00fdrie, nebo je zat\u00e1hlo do velk\u00e9ho region\u00e1ln\u00edho konfliktu t\u011bsn\u011b p\u0159ed listopadov\u00fdmi volbami.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Prezident Putin na \u010dtvrte\u010dn\u00ed ot\u00e1zku ohledn\u011b reakce sv\u00e9 zem\u011b na to, \u017ee Z\u00e1pad nechal Ukrajinu pou\u017e\u00edt sv\u00e9 zbran\u011b k \u00fader\u016fm na c\u00edle uvnit\u0159 v\u0161eobecn\u011b uzn\u00e1van\u00fdch hranic Ruska,\u00a0odpov\u011bd\u011bl krypticky<\/a>\u00a0n\u00e1sledovn\u011b: \u201ePro\u010d bychom nemohli podobn\u00e9 zbran\u011b dod\u00e1vat do t\u011bch oblast\u00ed sv\u011bta, kde budou pou\u017eity proti citliv\u00fdm m\u00edst\u016fm t\u011bchto zem\u00ed? Pokud n\u011bkdo pova\u017euje za mo\u017en\u00e9 dod\u00e1vat takov\u00e9 zbran\u011b do v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 z\u00f3ny, aby zas\u00e1hly na\u0161e \u00fazem\u00ed…? M\u016f\u017eeme reagovat asymetricky. Budeme o tom uva\u017eovat.<\/i>\u201c<\/p>\n

Osa odporu je jedinou silou, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 politickou v\u016fli zas\u00e1hnout citliv\u00e1 m\u00edsta na Z\u00e1pad\u011b. Tyto s \u00cdr\u00e1nem sp\u0159\u00edzn\u011bn\u00e9 skupiny ji\u017e za\u00fato\u010dily na americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny v S\u00fdrii, Ir\u00e1ku a\u00a0Jord\u00e1nsku<\/a>, z nich\u017e prvn\u00ed byly vybudov\u00e1ny bez souhlasu Dama\u0161ku, zat\u00edmco ostatn\u00ed s touto nez\u00e1konnou okupac\u00ed pom\u00e1haj\u00ed. Od posledn\u00ed\u00a0izraelsko-hamas\u00e1ck\u00e9 v\u00e1lky sv\u00e9 \u00fadery stup\u0148uj\u00ed<\/a>, co\u017e n\u011bkdy vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 zdrcuj\u00edc\u00ed reakci, ale USA nad\u00e1le z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed na m\u00edst\u011b, proto\u017ee sta\u017een\u00ed by Ose odporu p\u0159ineslo v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed.<\/p>\n

V tom spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 d\u016fvod, pro\u010d by Rusko mohlo v\u00e1\u017en\u011b uva\u017eovat o tom, \u017ee se spolehne na sv\u00e9ho \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho strategick\u00e9ho partnera a vyzbroj\u00ed tyto skupiny, aby bu\u010f donutilo Ameri\u010dany k poni\u017euj\u00edc\u00edmu sta\u017een\u00ed alespo\u0148 z \u010d\u00e1sti z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asie, zejm\u00e9na ze S\u00fdrie, nebo je vt\u00e1hlo do velk\u00e9ho region\u00e1ln\u00edho konfliktu t\u011bsn\u011b p\u0159ed listopadov\u00fdmi volbami. Ve\u0159ejnost nem\u00e1 chu\u0165 na dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1lku v t\u00e9to \u010d\u00e1sti sv\u011bta, ani ji nechce financovat v takov\u00e9 m\u00ed\u0159e, v jak\u00e9 financuje Ukrajinu, a nav\u00edc Pentagon mus\u00ed dopl\u0148ovat sv\u00e9 z\u00e1soby.<\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc Izrael se sna\u017e\u00ed dos\u00e1hnout sv\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f v Gaze, tak\u017ee ani on nen\u00ed p\u0159ipraven na dal\u0161\u00ed velk\u00fd region\u00e1ln\u00ed konflikt. Samozvan\u00fd \u017eidovsk\u00fd st\u00e1t by mohl nanejv\u00fd\u0161 prov\u00e1d\u011bt dal\u0161\u00ed leteck\u00e9 \u00fadery proti Ose odporu a mo\u017en\u00e1\u00a0vyzbrojit Ukrajinu \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdmi zbran\u011bmi<\/a>\u00a0v reakci na to, \u017ee Rusko vyzbrojuje syrsk\u00e9 a ir\u00e1ck\u00e9 skupiny prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm \u00cdr\u00e1nu, zejm\u00e9na pokud dod\u00e1v\u00e1 zbran\u011b Hizball\u00e1hu. Izrael v\u0161ak pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nebude riskovat plnohodnotnou \u00edr\u00e1nskou odvetu p\u0159ekro\u010den\u00edm sv\u00fdch \u010derven\u00fdch lini\u00ed, tak\u017ee\u00a0riziko eskalace by pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b z\u016fstalo minim\u00e1ln\u00ed<\/a>.<\/p>\n

D\u016fvodem, pro\u010d to Rusko je\u0161t\u011b neud\u011blalo a podle slov prezidenta Putina o tom nyn\u00ed pouze \u201euva\u017euje\u201c, je skute\u010dnost, \u017ee tato politika by mohla v\u00e9st k velmi nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u00fdm nezam\u00fd\u0161len\u00fdm d\u016fsledk\u016fm. Je to\u00a0dokonal\u00fd pragmatik<\/a>\u00a0a obecn\u011b je velmi opatrn\u00fd p\u0159i prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed z\u00e1sadn\u00edch krok\u016f, k nim\u017e se odhodl\u00e1v\u00e1 a\u017e po pe\u010dliv\u00e9m prostudov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u0161ech jejich mo\u017en\u00fdch rozm\u011br\u016f, a i pak obvykle a\u017e na posledn\u00ed chv\u00edli. Krym, S\u00fdrie a\u00a0speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operace jsou dokonal\u00fdmi p\u0159\u00edklady<\/a>\u00a0tohoto p\u0159\u00edstupu.<\/p>\n

Mnoz\u00ed by sice r\u00e1di vid\u011bli, jak Rusko prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm Osy odporu pom\u00e1h\u00e1 \u00cdr\u00e1nu d\u00e1t USA v z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asii krvav\u00fd nos, ale Kreml se ob\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee by to mohlo v\u00e9st k tomu, \u017ee USA maxim\u00e1ln\u011b \u201eeskaluj\u00ed, aby deeskalovaly\u201c\u00a0na Ukrajin\u011b t\u00edm<\/a>, \u017ee na\u0159\u00edd\u00ed vojsk\u016fm NATO p\u0159ekro\u010dit Dn\u011bpr a hroziv\u011b se p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eit k nov\u00fdm hranic\u00edm Ruska. V t\u00e9to nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9\u00a0h\u0159e na jadern\u00e9 ku\u0159e<\/a>\u00a0by se Moskva mohla z d\u016fvodu sebeobrany uch\u00fdlit k taktick\u00fdm jadern\u00fdm zbran\u00edm jako k posledn\u00ed mo\u017enosti, co\u017e by mohlo vyvolat s\u00e9rii rychle se vyv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00edch ud\u00e1lost\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by skon\u010dily apokalypsou.<\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc, i kdy\u017e existuje poetick\u00e1 spravedlnost v tom, \u017ee Rusko vyu\u017eije \u00cdr\u00e1n k vyhn\u00e1n\u00ed USA ze z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asie, stejn\u011b jako USA\u00a0vyu\u017eily Ukrajinu k vyhn\u00e1n\u00ed Ruska z \u010cern\u00e9ho mo\u0159e<\/a>\u00a0(jak to alespo\u0148 n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed politici vykl\u00e1daj\u00ed), v\u017edy existuje mo\u017enost, \u017ee se riziko region\u00e1ln\u00ed eskalace vymkne kontrole kv\u016fli Netanjahuovi, kter\u00fd je ne\u0159\u00edzen\u00e1 st\u0159ela. Je pod\u00a0dom\u00e1c\u00edm<\/a>\u00a0i\u00a0mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edm<\/a>\u00a0tlakem jako nikdy p\u0159edt\u00edm a mohl by v\u00e1\u017en\u011b uva\u017eovat o \u201eeskalaci k d-eskalaci\u201c proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu stejn\u011b jako USA proti Rusku (a\u0165 u\u017e koordinovan\u011b, nebo ne).<\/p>\n

Z jeho pohledu by Rusko spol\u00e9haj\u00edc\u00ed na \u00cdr\u00e1n, kter\u00fd vyzbroj\u00ed Osu odporu lep\u0161\u00edmi zbran\u011bmi pro \u00fadery na region\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1kladny USA, mohlo vych\u00fdlit rovnov\u00e1hu\u00a0sil mezi Izraelem a Hizball\u00e1hem<\/a>, \u010d\u00edm\u017e by se samozvan\u00fd \u017eidovsk\u00fd st\u00e1t stal v\u016f\u010di sv\u00fdm protivn\u00edk\u016fm zraniteln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm ne\u017e kdy d\u0159\u00edve. V souladu s t\u00edm, stejn\u011b jako by USA mohly na\u0159\u00eddit jednotk\u00e1m NATO, aby p\u0159ekro\u010dily Dn\u011bpr a hroziv\u011b se p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eily k nov\u00fdm hranic\u00edm Ruska, mohl by Izrael hrozit p\u0159ekro\u010den\u00edm \u010derven\u00fdch lini\u00ed Hizball\u00e1hu, co\u017e by v obou p\u0159\u00edpadech mohlo v\u00e9st ke t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce.<\/p>\n

I kdyby to USA a Izrael s potenci\u00e1ln\u00edm vyzbrojov\u00e1n\u00edm Osy odporu ze strany Ruska prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm \u00cdr\u00e1nu nep\u0159ehnaly, \u010d\u00e1st t\u011bchto zbran\u00ed by mohla b\u00fdt rovn\u011b\u017e p\u0159ed\u00e1na\u00a0jemensk\u00fdm H\u00fat\u00ed\u016fm<\/a>, kte\u0159\u00ed by je pak mohli pou\u017e\u00edt k ohro\u017een\u00ed Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie. Prezident Putin m\u00e1 s korunn\u00edm princem kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed\u00a0v\u00fdborn\u00e9 vztahy<\/a>\u00a0a ob\u011b zem\u011b spole\u010dn\u011b \u0159\u00edd\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trh s ropou. Sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 zhor\u0161en\u00ed jejich vztah\u016f v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee se n\u011bkter\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 zbran\u011b dostanou k H\u00fat\u00ed\u016fm, by ho tak\u00e9 mohl p\u0159im\u011bt k tomu, aby si tuto mo\u017enost dvakr\u00e1t rozmyslel.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e to vezmeme kolem a kolem, nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed asymetrickou odpov\u011bd\u00ed na to, \u017ee Z\u00e1pad nech\u00e1 Ukrajinu pou\u017e\u00edt sv\u00e9 zbran\u011b k \u00fader\u016fm na c\u00edle uvnit\u0159 v\u0161eobecn\u011b uzn\u00e1van\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch hranic, je, \u017ee Rusko vyzbroj\u00ed Osu odporu lep\u0161\u00edmi zbran\u011bmi prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm \u00cdr\u00e1nu, tak\u017ee bude m\u00edt v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u0161anci zni\u010dit americk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny v z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asii. Jak ji\u017e bylo \u0159e\u010deno, prezident Putin se pro tento postup zat\u00edm nerozhodl, proto\u017ee se v\u017edy zdr\u00e1h\u00e1 \u010dinit z\u00e1sadn\u00ed kroky kv\u016fli obav\u00e1m z nezam\u00fd\u0161len\u00fdch d\u016fsledk\u016f, ale rozhodn\u011b se zd\u00e1, \u017ee o tom uva\u017euje.<\/p>\n

\n

Who Might Russia Arm As An Asymmetrical Response To The West Arming Ukraine?<\/a> vy\u0161el 7.6.2024 na Oriental Review. P\u0159eklad\u00a0Zvedavec.org<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rusko by mohlo v\u00e1\u017en\u011b uva\u017eovat o tom, \u017ee se spolehne na sv\u00e9ho \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho strategick\u00e9ho partnera…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":55451,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,122,22,276,73],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55450"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=55450"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55450\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/55451"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=55450"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=55450"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=55450"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}