{"id":55011,"date":"2024-06-02T00:46:15","date_gmt":"2024-06-01T22:46:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=55011"},"modified":"2024-06-01T17:31:31","modified_gmt":"2024-06-01T15:31:31","slug":"andrew-korybko-pochybuje-ukrajina-nebo-zautocila-na-ruske-systemy-vcasneho-varovani-s-americkym-souhlasem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/06\/02\/andrew-korybko-pochybuje-ukrajina-nebo-zautocila-na-ruske-systemy-vcasneho-varovani-s-americkym-souhlasem\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Pochybuje Ukrajina nebo za\u00fato\u010dila na rusk\u00e9 syst\u00e9my v\u010dasn\u00e9ho varov\u00e1n\u00ed s americk\u00fdm souhlasem?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Odpov\u011b\u010f Ruska na tuto ot\u00e1zku ur\u010d\u00ed jeho reakci na jakoukoli konven\u010dn\u00ed intervenci NATO na Ukrajin\u011b.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Rusko-americk\u00e9 vztahy se koncem kv\u011btna zhor\u0161ily v\u00edce ne\u017e kdy jindy v d\u016fsledku t\u0159\u00ed ud\u00e1lost\u00ed. Za prv\u00e9, USA daly m\u00ed\u010d do pohybu t\u00edm, \u017ee\u00a0otev\u0159en\u011bji umo\u017enily\u00a0<\/a>Ukrajin\u011b pou\u017e\u00edvat sv\u00e9 zbran\u011b k \u00fader\u016fm na c\u00edle uvnit\u0159 Ruska, pak Polsko prohl\u00e1silo, \u017ee USA zas\u00e1hnou\u00a0v\u0161echny rusk\u00e9 s\u00edly\u00a0<\/a>v\u00a0z\u00f3n\u011b\u00a0<\/a>speci\u00e1ln\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>operace\u00a0<\/a>, pokud Moskva pou\u017eije jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b, a nakonec, prezident Putin nazna\u010dil, \u017ee\u00a0o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee NATO v\u00fdrazn\u011b eskaluje\u00a0<\/a>konflikt n\u011bkdy letos v l\u00e9t\u011b. To v\u0161e je dost \u0161patn\u00e9, ale je to je\u0161t\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed t\u00edm, co Ukrajina pr\u00e1v\u011b ud\u011blala.<\/p>\n

Rusko\u00a0potvrdilo\u00a0<\/a>, \u017ee Ukrajina zas\u00e1hla alespo\u0148 jeden ze sv\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f v\u010dasn\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho varov\u00e1n\u00ed, zat\u00edmco Kyjev tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee\u00a0zam\u00ed\u0159il druh\u00fd\u00a0<\/a>hloub\u011bji do vnitrozem\u00ed sv\u00e9ho protivn\u00edka, kter\u00fd (zat\u00edm?) nebyl potvrzen. Tyto struktury detekuj\u00ed p\u0159il\u00e9taj\u00edc\u00ed mezikontinent\u00e1ln\u00ed balistick\u00e9 st\u0159ely toho druhu, kter\u00e9 by mohly b\u00fdt vypu\u0161t\u011bny Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty ve sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i prvn\u00edho \u00faderu, a t\u00edm Rusku umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed p\u0159ipravit se na nevyhnuteln\u00fd druh\u00fd \u00fader. Nemaj\u00ed nic spole\u010dn\u00e9ho s ukrajinsk\u00fdm konfliktem a v\u0161e souvis\u00ed se strategickou stabilitou.<\/p>\n

Oba \u00fadajn\u011b z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed provozuschopn\u00e9, ale p\u0159esto to p\u0159edstavuje bezprecedentn\u00ed v\u00fdvoj, proto\u017ee nikdy p\u0159edt\u00edm \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 zem\u011b neza\u00fato\u010dila na takov\u00e9 syst\u00e9my jin\u00e9 zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 by ji v nejhor\u0161\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b oslepily k prvn\u00edmu \u00faderu, a poskytly tak \u00fato\u010d\u00edc\u00ed stran\u011b obrovskou v\u00fdhodu v tom. ud\u00e1lost. Dal\u0161\u00ed zhor\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed rusko-americk\u00fdch vztah\u016f, ke kter\u00e9mu do\u0161lo nez\u00e1visle na tomto v\u00fdvoji, zv\u00fd\u0161ilo nap\u011bt\u00ed na nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 od kub\u00e1nsk\u00e9 raketov\u00e9 krize, tak\u017ee to nemohlo p\u0159ij\u00edt v hor\u0161\u00ed dobu.<\/p>\n

Nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ot\u00e1zkou ve sv\u011bt\u011b te\u010f je, zda se Ukrajina chov\u00e1 dareb\u00e1cky, mo\u017en\u00e1 proto, aby vyvolala krizi, jako je ta v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e1 v o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee by mohla donutit Rusko st\u00e1hnout se alespo\u0148 z \u010d\u00e1sti \u00fazem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 si Kyjev n\u00e1rokuje jako sv\u00e9, pop\u0159. kdyby to bylo provedeno s americk\u00fdm souhlasem. Zpr\u00e1va\u00a0The\u00a0Washington Post\u00a0<\/a>o tom, jak jsou ameri\u010dt\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 znepokojeni t\u00edm, co Ukrajina pr\u00e1v\u011b ud\u011blala, dod\u00e1v\u00e1 d\u016fv\u011bryhodnosti prvn\u00edmu n\u00e1zoru, ale m\u016f\u017ee to b\u00fdt jen dezinformace pro \u00fa\u010dely v\u011brohodn\u00e9ho pop\u0159en\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 v\u0161ak stoj\u00ed za to si p\u0159ipomenout, jak se Ukrajina\u00a0vzep\u0159ela ve\u0159ejn\u00fdm po\u017eadavk\u016fm USA\u00a0<\/a>nec\u00edlit na rusk\u00e9 ropn\u00e9 rafin\u00e9rie. Bidenova administrativa nechce, aby cena t\u00e9to komodity p\u0159ed listopadov\u00fdmi volbami prudce vzrostla, p\u0159esto Zelenskij p\u0159esto na\u0159\u00eddil sv\u00fdm sil\u00e1m, aby i tak zas\u00e1hly rafin\u00e9rie. To tak\u00e9 p\u0159i\u0161lo uprost\u0159ed patov\u00e9 situace v Kongresu ohledn\u011b dal\u0161\u00ed pomoci Ukrajin\u011b\u00a0, kter\u00e1 byla vy\u0159e\u0161ena\u00a0<\/a>kr\u00e1tce pot\u00e9, co se tyto st\u00e1vky staly problematick\u00fdmi. Pro Ukrajinu by proto nebylo bezprecedentn\u00ed, aby se znovu stala ne\u010destnou.<\/p>\n

Krom\u011b toho\u00a0Financial Times\u00a0<\/a>uvedly, \u017ee \u201en\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed ukrajin\u0161t\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee (vazby s USA) dos\u00e1hly nejni\u017e\u0161\u00edho odlivu\u201c kv\u016fli v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00fdm omezen\u00edm zam\u011b\u0159en\u00fdm na rusk\u00e9 ropn\u00e9 rafinerie a Zelensk\u00e9ho \u201eparanoie\u201c (jako jeden z jejich \u00fadajn\u00fdch ukrajinsk\u00fdch zasv\u011bcenc\u016f popsal) o z\u00e1m\u011brech USA. Tak\u00e9 ho urazilo, \u017ee se Biden nez\u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00fdch \u201e\u00a0m\u00edrov\u00fdch rozhovor\u016f\u00a0<\/a>\u201c pot\u00e9, co je odm\u00edtl kv\u016fli finan\u010dn\u00ed sb\u00edrce, co\u017e ho \u00fadajn\u011b p\u0159im\u011blo poslat memorandum na\u0159izuj\u00edc\u00ed \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edk\u016fm kritizovat americk\u00e9ho v\u016fdce.<\/p>\n

Nicm\u00e9n\u011b nejlep\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edstupem by pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b bylo, kdyby Rusko p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dalo, \u017ee Amerika p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm ti\u0161e schv\u00e1lila ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fadery na jej\u00ed syst\u00e9m (syst\u00e9my) v\u010dasn\u00e9ho varov\u00e1n\u00ed, proto\u017ee tento sled my\u0161lenek je v souladu s eskala\u010dn\u00edm trendem z minul\u00e9ho t\u00fddne. Koneckonc\u016f, pokud NATO jako celek nebo alespo\u0148 \u201e\u00a0koalice ochotn\u00fdch\u00a0<\/a>\u201c z tohoto bloku zah\u00e1j\u00ed\u00a0konven\u010dn\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>intervenci\u00a0<\/a>na Ukrajin\u011b, pak by to mohlo p\u0159im\u011bt Rusko, aby pou\u017eilo taktick\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b v sebeobran\u011b k zastaven\u00ed t\u00e9to invazn\u00ed s\u00edly, pokud p\u0159ekro\u010d\u00ed hranici Dn\u011bpr a ohro\u017euje jeho nov\u00e9 regiony.<\/p>\n

V takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by USA mohly bu\u010f konven\u010dn\u011b za\u00fato\u010dit na v\u0161echny rusk\u00e9 s\u00edly v z\u00f3n\u011b speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operace, jak tvrdilo Polsko, \u017ee by to ud\u011blaly, nebo prost\u011b za\u00fato\u010dit t\u00edm, \u017ee zah\u00e1j\u00ed prvn\u00ed jadern\u00fd \u00fader, kter\u00fd by mohl usnadnit jeho ukrajinsk\u00fd z\u00e1stupce, kter\u00fd by provedl v\u00edce. \u00fatoky proti jej\u00edm syst\u00e9m\u016fm v\u010dasn\u00e9ho varov\u00e1n\u00ed. Existuje tak\u00e9 mo\u017enost, \u017ee by v\u00edce takov\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f mohlo jednodu\u0161e p\u0159edch\u00e1zet prvn\u00edmu jadern\u00e9mu \u00faderu USA p\u0159ed jakoukoli konven\u010dn\u00ed intervenc\u00ed NATO, pokud by rozhodovac\u00ed \u010dinitel\u00e9 do\u0161li k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee v\u00fdm\u011bna by pak byla nevyhnuteln\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Nelze tedy vylou\u010dit, \u017ee Ukrajina zkoumala bezpe\u010dnost rusk\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f v\u010dasn\u00e9ho varov\u00e1n\u00ed na p\u0159\u00edkaz sv\u00e9ho americk\u00e9ho patrona p\u0159i p\u0159\u00edprav\u011b nejhor\u0161\u00edho sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, proto je moudr\u00e9 doporu\u010den\u00ed Dmitrije Suslova pro jeho zemi prov\u00e9st demonstrativn\u00ed\u201c jadern\u00fd test. Tento vlivn\u00fd odborn\u00edk z Rusk\u00e9 rady pro zahrani\u010dn\u00ed a obrannou politiku nechal sv\u016fj n\u00e1vrh politiky p\u0159elo\u017eit a znovu publikovat v RT\u00a0zde\u00a0<\/a>, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se dostal do celosv\u011btov\u00e9 pozornosti se z\u00e1m\u011brem signalizovat USA.<\/p>\n

\u010cten\u00e1\u0159i si tak\u00e9 mo\u017en\u00e1 vzpomenou, \u017ee RT loni v \u010dervnu zve\u0159ejnila n\u00e1vrh Suslovova kolegy Sergeje Karaganova, kde vysv\u011btlil,\u00a0pro\u010d by Rusko m\u011blo vybuchovat jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b na Evropu\u00a0<\/a>, aby odradilo USA na Ukrajin\u011b. Tento nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1vrh je mnohem prakti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a nenese s sebou \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 riziko rozpout\u00e1n\u00ed t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky a nav\u00edc by mohl p\u0159edstavovat vhodn\u00e9 fin\u00e1le\u00a0rusk\u00fdch cvi\u010den\u00ed taktick\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed,\u00a0<\/a>kter\u00e1 byla pr\u00e1v\u011b provedena. Ty byly na\u0159\u00edzeny, aby odradily USA, ale vzhledem k jejich pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed eskalaci m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt zapot\u0159eb\u00ed siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sign\u00e1l.<\/p>\n

Odpov\u011b\u010f Ruska na ot\u00e1zku, zda se Ukrajina p\u0159i \u00fatoku na syst\u00e9m (syst\u00e9my) v\u010dasn\u00e9ho varov\u00e1n\u00ed dopustila dareb\u00e1ctv\u00ed, nebo zda se tak stalo na p\u0159\u00edkaz Ameriky, ur\u010d\u00ed jeho reakci na jakoukoli konven\u010dn\u00ed intervenci NATO na Ukrajin\u011b. Prvn\u00ed by mohl vid\u011bt Rusko \u010dekat, dokud velk\u00e9 s\u00edly nep\u0159ekro\u010d\u00ed Dn\u011bpr, aby pou\u017eily taktick\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b, zat\u00edmco druh\u00fd by ho mohl p\u0159im\u011bt k zah\u00e1jen\u00ed jadern\u00e9ho prvn\u00edho \u00faderu proti USA p\u0159ed zah\u00e1jen\u00edm intervence, aby p\u0159ede\u0161lo prvn\u00edmu jadern\u00e9mu \u00faderu, kter\u00fd by Rusko mohlo v\u011b\u0159it, \u017ee USA pl\u00e1nuj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Odpov\u011b\u010f Ruska na tuto ot\u00e1zku ur\u010d\u00ed jeho reakci na jakoukoli konven\u010dn\u00ed intervenci NATO na Ukrajin\u011b….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":55009,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,6484,22,26,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55011"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=55011"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55011\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/55009"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=55011"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=55011"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=55011"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}