{"id":54838,"date":"2024-05-31T00:32:11","date_gmt":"2024-05-30T22:32:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=54838"},"modified":"2024-05-30T14:52:25","modified_gmt":"2024-05-30T12:52:25","slug":"peter-tchir-vstupujeme-do-nove-faze-valky-na-ukrajine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/05\/31\/peter-tchir-vstupujeme-do-nove-faze-valky-na-ukrajine\/","title":{"rendered":"Peter Tchir: Vstupujeme do nov\u00e9 f\u00e1ze v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1fb4c2c elementor-widget elementor-widget-theme-post-content\" data-id=\"1fb4c2c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"theme-post-content.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<p><strong>Dnes bychom cht\u011bli upozornit na n\u011bkolik v\u011bc\u00ed:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span>D\u011bkuji v\u0161em sv\u00fdm koleg\u016fm a v\u0161em, kte\u0159\u00ed slou\u017eili, a r\u00e1d bych si na chv\u00edli zavzpom\u00ednal na ty, kte\u0159\u00ed p\u0159inesli tu nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ob\u011b\u0165.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Pokud jste zme\u0161kali leto\u0161n\u00ed vyd\u00e1n\u00ed Around the World, m\u011bli byste si ho p\u0159e\u010d\u00edst, proto\u017ee obsahuje n\u00e1zory Akademie na n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed t\u00e9mata<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><span>Izrael<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0zahajuje operace v Rafahu.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span>Rusk\u00e9<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0s\u00edly postupuj\u00ed\u00a0na Charkov.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><strong><span>Xi<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0se setk\u00e1 s Putinem v \u010c\u00edn\u011b.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Redukce\u00a0<\/span><strong><span>americk\u00fdch sil<\/span><\/strong><span>\u00a0v Sahelu.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span>Zat\u00edmco o sch\u016fzce mezi Si \u0164in-pchingem a Putinem se p\u00ed\u0161e po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b, mysl\u00edm, \u017ee je tak\u00e9 t\u0159eba uv\u00e9st, \u017ee vstupujeme do nov\u00e9 \u201ef\u00e1ze\u201c v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b. Takov\u00fd, ve kter\u00e9m se Rusko bude sna\u017eit p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit lidi prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm soci\u00e1ln\u00edch s\u00edt\u00ed, \u017ee je t\u0159eba dos\u00e1hnout \u201em\u00edru\u201c, a ve kter\u00e9m si Rusko bude moci udr\u017eet velkou \u010d\u00e1st \u00fazem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 zab\u00edr\u00e1 na v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Ukrajin\u011b. Zd\u00e1 se v\u00edce ne\u017e jen shodou okolnost\u00ed, \u017ee se Putin po setk\u00e1n\u00ed se Si \u0164in-pchingem jev\u00ed jako ve\u0159ejn\u011b p\u0159\u00edstupn\u00fd takov\u00e9mu v\u00fdsledku. Nebylo by to ani p\u0159ekvapiv\u00e9, vzhledem k tomu, jak moc se zd\u00e1, \u017ee soci\u00e1ln\u00ed m\u00e9dia dok\u00e1\u017eou ovlivnit politick\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky v USA (v\u00e1lka v Gaze je uk\u00e1zkov\u00fdm p\u0159\u00edkladem). Je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee jsme v ran\u00e9 f\u00e1zi, kdy vid\u00edme druhy obchod\u016f, kter\u00e9 u\u017e n\u011bjakou dobu o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1me?<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span>O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1me, \u017ee ob\u011b strany budou nakonec nuceny dos\u00e1hnout dohody, kter\u00e1 uspokoj\u00ed ob\u011b zem\u011b, ale nebude pro \u017e\u00e1dnou zvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 atraktivn\u00ed. Ukrajina v podstat\u011b postoup\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st p\u016fdy a obdr\u017e\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st zmrazen\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch dolarov\u00fdch rezerv jako platbu, co\u017e j\u00ed umo\u017en\u00ed splatit \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00fdch dluh\u016f a za\u010d\u00edt s obnovou zem\u011b.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Takov\u00e1 dohoda by byla pro Evropu dobr\u00e1, proto\u017ee \u00fasil\u00ed o rekonstrukci by vytvo\u0159ilo popt\u00e1vku po pracovn\u00ed s\u00edle a vybaven\u00ed, ale tak\u00e9 by podn\u00edtilo inflaci (alespo\u0148 zpo\u010d\u00e1tku). Na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00farovni by nastalo ur\u010dit\u00e9 vzru\u0161en\u00ed, proto\u017ee geopolitick\u00e9 riziko by bylo mimo st\u016fl, ale nakonec by se toho mnoho nezm\u011bnilo, proto\u017ee nov\u00fd sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d se ji\u017e formoval a bude se formovat i nad\u00e1le, bez ohledu na to, co se stane s Ruskem a Ukrajinou.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span>Celkov\u011b z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed geopolitick\u00e1 rizika relevantn\u00ed. V na\u0161em prvn\u00edm vyd\u00e1n\u00ed \u201eGeopolitick\u00e1 rizika \u2013 vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed vs. realita\u201c jsme diskutovali o obt\u00ed\u017enosti integrace geopolitick\u00fdch rizik do \u201epou\u017eiteln\u00fdch\u201c strategi\u00ed. Zam\u011b\u0159ili jsme se na kybernetick\u00e1 rizika, obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lky, komodity, Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod, Rusko a rizika divok\u00fdch karet. Podle na\u0161eho n\u00e1zoru trhy nad\u00e1le podce\u0148uj\u00ed riziko obchodn\u00edch v\u00e1lek a komodit, zat\u00edmco ostatn\u00ed rizika jsou vn\u00edm\u00e1na pom\u011brn\u011b p\u0159esn\u011b ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s na\u0161\u00edm hodnocen\u00edm skute\u010dn\u00e9ho rizika. Kdyby n\u011bco, Rusko by se mohlo posunout z neutr\u00e1ln\u00edho rizika na zelen\u00e9 (mo\u017en\u00e9 pozitivn\u00ed p\u0159ekvapen\u00ed).<\/span><br \/>\n<span>Pokud jde o trhy, zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee se v diskus\u00edch st\u00e1le objevuje n\u011bkolik v\u011bc\u00ed:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span>Jak mohou b\u00fdt trhy tak siln\u00e9 navzdory v\u0161em geopolitick\u00fdm rizik\u016fm? Na tuto ot\u00e1zku jsme se pokusili odpov\u011bd\u011bt v \u010dl\u00e1nku Riziko vs. vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed a tak\u00e9 v Hedging the Unhedgeable. Vsadil bych na suroviny a firmy, kter\u00e9 t\u011b\u017e\u00ed z rekonstrukce na Ukrajin\u011b nebo ze snahy t\u011b\u017eit A zpracov\u00e1vat v\u00edce surovin v tuzemsku (a\u0165 u\u017e v USA nebo v zem\u00edch, se kter\u00fdmi si velmi dob\u0159e rozum\u00edme politicky a geograficky \u2013 tedy lep\u0161\u00ed kontrola a p\u0159\u00edstup tyto zem\u011b).<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Minul\u00fd t\u00fdden jsme pouk\u00e1zali na to, \u017ee trh byl p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 zam\u011b\u0159en na inflaci a detaily politiky Fedu. Po t\u00fddnu diskuz\u00ed nev\u011b\u0159\u00edm, \u017ee tomu tak je. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee v\u0161ichni \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edci trhu, se kter\u00fdmi mluv\u00edm, maj\u00ed o Fedu rozumn\u00e9 m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed:<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><span>Letos budeme m\u00edt jedno nebo dv\u011b sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed sazeb a n\u011bkolik dal\u0161\u00edch p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee nikoho nezaj\u00edm\u00e1, jestli je to letos 0, 1, 2 nebo 3.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Nikdo se opravdu neob\u00e1v\u00e1 mo\u017enosti zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sazeb a lid\u00e9 si mysl\u00ed, \u017ee jedin\u00fdm d\u016fvodem, pro\u010d ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sazeb dojde, je to, \u017ee ekonomika je st\u00e1le neuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u011b siln\u00e1, tak\u017ee to nebude velk\u00fd probl\u00e9m.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>Kdy\u017e dojde na nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed anal\u00fdzy a um\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed, nikdo u\u017e nerv\u00f3zn\u011b nesleduje p\u00e1sku, kdy\u017e jsou zve\u0159ejn\u011bna ekonomick\u00e1 data.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span>P\u0159esto se zd\u00e1, \u017ee trhy reaguj\u00ed na ka\u017ed\u00fd titulek jako d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee je pro m\u011b tak t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 identifikovat lidi, kter\u00fdm na konkr\u00e9tn\u00edm titulku tolik z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed, mohu jen p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee jsou to \u201estroje\u201c, na kter\u00fdch z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed. Algoritmy a kvantov\u00e9 modely vedou show. Nev\u00edm, jestli je to dob\u0159e nebo \u0161patn\u011b, ale jasn\u011b to vysv\u011btluje rozd\u00edl mezi t\u00edm, co vid\u00edm a sly\u0161\u00edm, a t\u00edm, co se skute\u010dn\u011b d\u011bje v ekonomick\u00fdch datech a kolem nich. Mus\u00edm p\u0159iznat, \u017ee Index ekonomick\u00e9ho p\u0159ekvapen\u00ed Citi minul\u00fd t\u00fdden vzrostl a je m\u00e9n\u011b negativn\u00ed, co\u017e vysv\u011btluje, pro\u010d desetilet\u00fd dluhopis skon\u010dil t\u00fdden pobl\u00ed\u017e vrcholu na\u0161eho rozp\u011bt\u00ed 4,3 % a\u017e 4,5 %.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span>P\u0159ib\u00fdvaj\u00ed zn\u00e1mky uspokojen\u00ed a n\u00edzk\u00e9 objemy. \u010cetl jsem, \u017ee SPY, velk\u00fd S&amp;P 500 ETF, m\u011bl sv\u016fj druh\u00fd nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed denn\u00ed objem za rok (jen vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e brzk\u00e9 uzav\u0159en\u00ed na Den d\u00edk\u016fvzd\u00e1n\u00ed a jeden z nejni\u017e\u0161\u00edch denn\u00edch objem\u016f za posledn\u00ed roky). VIX klesl na 12. Anemick\u00e9 objemy mohou pomoci posunout trhy v\u00fd\u0161e, ale poskytuj\u00ed investor\u016fm malou d\u016fv\u011bru, co\u017e m\u011b vede k ot\u00e1zce, do jak\u00e9 m\u00edry jsou \u201estroje\u201c na starosti.<\/span><br \/>\n<span>Velk\u00fdm t\u00e9matem z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 AI. Jak ji\u017e bylo \u0159e\u010deno, nejsem si jist\u00fd, kolik lid\u00ed vid\u011blo ve \u010dtvrtek r\u016fst NVDA, zat\u00edmco Nasdaq 100 klesl o 10 procent. Rozhodn\u011b to nebyl sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, kter\u00fd bych pova\u017eoval za p\u0159ijateln\u00fd, ale stal se. To op\u011bt vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 ot\u00e1zku \u00fa\u010dasti na trhu a likvidity.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Kdy\u017e tento v\u00edkend tr\u00e1v\u00edme \u010das grilov\u00e1n\u00edm s p\u0159\u00e1teli a rodinou, toto jsou my\u0161lenky\/ot\u00e1zky, kter\u00fdm \u010del\u00edme na za\u010d\u00e1tku t\u00fddne, a pro mnoh\u00e9 neexistuj\u00ed jasn\u00e9 odpov\u011bdi. Mo\u017en\u00e1 budou akcie d\u00e1le r\u016fst a vytv\u00e1\u0159et nov\u00e9 rekordy (v\u011bt\u0161ina je jen o m\u00e1lo vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e rekordy, kter\u00e9 nastavily p\u0159ed p\u00e1r m\u011bs\u00edci), nebo to n\u011bco ot\u0159ese (pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b se d\u00e1 spojit obchod nebo geopolitick\u00e1 ud\u00e1lost, kter\u00e1 je p\u0159\u00edmo ovliv\u0148uje). vyhl\u00eddky spole\u010dnosti na zisk).<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8c57238 quelle dc-has-condition dc-condition-empty elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8c57238\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/geopolitical\/we-are-entering-new-phase-war-ukraine\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dnes bychom cht\u011bli upozornit na n\u011bkolik v\u011bc\u00ed: D\u011bkuji v\u0161em sv\u00fdm koleg\u016fm a v\u0161em, kte\u0159\u00ed slou\u017eili,&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":54839,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,30,22,26,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54838"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=54838"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54838\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":54840,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54838\/revisions\/54840"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/54839"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=54838"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=54838"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=54838"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}