{"id":54598,"date":"2024-05-28T00:39:34","date_gmt":"2024-05-27T22:39:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=54598"},"modified":"2024-05-27T18:52:45","modified_gmt":"2024-05-27T16:52:45","slug":"generalove-a-experti-na-zapade-stale-funguji-na-falesnych-predpokladech-o-rusku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/05\/28\/generalove-a-experti-na-zapade-stale-funguji-na-falesnych-predpokladech-o-rusku\/","title":{"rendered":"Gener\u00e1lov\u00e9 a experti na Z\u00e1pad\u011b st\u00e1le funguj\u00ed na fale\u0161n\u00fdch p\u0159edpokladech o Rusku"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm \u00fakolem ka\u017ed\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy je identifikovat z\u00e1kladn\u00ed p\u0159edpoklady o \u010dinnosti nebo osob\u011b, kterou analyzujeme. Pokud se \u010dlov\u011bk odd\u00e1v\u00e1 fale\u0161n\u00fdm p\u0159edpoklad\u016fm, pak se cel\u00fd analytick\u00fd p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh st\u00e1v\u00e1 fale\u0161n\u00fdm. Je to jako m\u00edt dioptrick\u00e9 br\u00fdle \u2013 jste kr\u00e1tkozrak\u00fd \u2013 a p\u0159edpis je dalekozrak\u00fd. Osobn\u011b se rad\u011bji zab\u00fdv\u00e1m p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm fakty a vyh\u00fdb\u00e1m se spekulac\u00edm.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Chci se zam\u011b\u0159it na ned\u00e1vn\u00fd \u010dl\u00e1nek, kter\u00fd tento bod zd\u016fraz\u0148uje. Chci pod\u011bkovat Andreji Martyanovovi za to, \u017ee pouk\u00e1zal na tento ned\u00e1vn\u00fd v\u00fdbuch od vrchn\u00edho velitele USA v Evrop\u011b Christophera Cavoliho. Cavoli tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee \u201esou\u010dasn\u00e1 rusk\u00e1 ofenz\u00edva nem\u00e1 potenci\u00e1l k pr\u016flomu\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

“\u00a0<\/span>V\u00edm, \u017ee Rusov\u00e9 nemaj\u00ed \u010d\u00edsla pot\u0159ebn\u00e1 ke strategick\u00e9mu pr\u016flomu…“<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

“\u00a0<\/span>Nemaj\u00ed dovednosti a schopnosti, aby to dok\u00e1zali, aby operovali v rozsahu nezbytn\u00e9m k vyu\u017eit\u00ed jak\u00e9hokoli pr\u016flomu ke strategick\u00e9 v\u00fdhod\u011b.“<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

A co je zdrojem tohoto vhledu? H\u00e1d\u00e1te spr\u00e1vn\u011b: \u201eUkrajinci\u201c \u2013 kandid\u00e1t m\u00e1 deset bod\u016f! Cavoli se v \u010d\u00edslech tot\u00e1ln\u011b m\u00fdl\u00ed, ale to p\u0159edb\u00edh\u00e1m.<\/span><\/p>\n

S touto bombou se hl\u00e1s\u00ed admir\u00e1l Rob Bauer, diletant NATO \u2013 a m\u00e1m podez\u0159en\u00ed, \u017ee i od Ukrajinc\u016f:<\/span><\/p>\n

“\u00a0<\/span>\u0158ekl, \u017ee Rusku se poda\u0159ilo zmobilizovat dal\u0161\u00ed s\u00edly, „ale kvalita voj\u00e1k\u016f je ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e t\u011bch na za\u010d\u00e1tku konfliktu“ kv\u016fli po\u010dtu d\u016fstojn\u00edk\u016f, „kte\u0159\u00ed byli zabiti na za\u010d\u00e1tku v\u00e1lky“ a proto nejsou schopni vycvi\u010dit nov\u00e9 voj\u00e1ky.“<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Op\u011bt jsme sv\u011bdky pod\u00edvan\u00e9 projekce \u2013 tedy p\u0159ipisov\u00e1n\u00ed Ruska n\u011b\u010demu, co za\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed Ukrajinci. Rusko od z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2022 p\u0159id\u00e1v\u00e1 ka\u017ed\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc des\u00edtky tis\u00edc voj\u00e1k\u016f. Na rozd\u00edl od Ukrajiny, kter\u00e1 sb\u00edr\u00e1 chlapy z ulic, nakl\u00e1d\u00e1 je do dod\u00e1vek, voz\u00ed je na vojenskou z\u00e1kladnu, obl\u00e9k\u00e1 je do uniforem, d\u00e1v\u00e1 jim do rukou zbra\u0148 a d\u00e1v\u00e1 jim jen z\u00e1kladn\u00ed kurz, rekruti v Rusku dost\u00e1vaj\u00ed minim\u00e1ln\u011b \u0161est m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f. v\u00fdcviku a jsou za\u0159azov\u00e1ni do jednotek se zku\u0161en\u00fdmi veter\u00e1ny. \u0158ady ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy se den ode dne ten\u010d\u00ed, jak Rusko buduje sv\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pod\u00edvejme se na n\u011bkter\u00e1 fakta. Pod\u00edvejte se na po\u010det voj\u00e1k\u016f v rusk\u00e9 arm\u00e1d\u011b v porovn\u00e1n\u00ed s \u00fadajn\u011b neporazitelnou arm\u00e1dou USA a uvid\u00edte Cavoliho \u0161a\u0161kov\u00e1n\u00ed. (Ano, p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1m, \u017ee tato \u010d\u00edsla jsou spr\u00e1vn\u00e1, proto\u017ee poch\u00e1zej\u00ed ze z\u00e1padn\u00edch zdroj\u016f).<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201c\u00a0<\/span>Od roku 2024 maj\u00ed rusk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly 3,57 milionu voj\u00e1k\u016f, z toho 1,32 milionu aktivn\u00edch voj\u00e1k\u016f, 2 miliony v z\u00e1loze a 250 000 polovojensk\u00fdch. Jde o druh\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst rusk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy od roku 2018, p\u0159edt\u00edm v srpnu 2022 p\u0159ibylo 137 000 voj\u00e1k\u016f.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

A Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty?<\/span><\/p>\n

K\u00a0<\/span>31. \u010dervenci 2023 m\u00e1 americk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da 452 689 aktivn\u00edch \u010dlen\u016f. 325 218 v arm\u00e1dn\u00ed n\u00e1rodn\u00ed gard\u011b a 176 968 z\u00e1lo\u017en\u00edk\u016f, celkem 1 073 200 p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00edk\u016f v uniform\u00e1ch.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Cavoli s diplomem z biologie a Bauer evidentn\u011b nejsou moc dob\u0159\u00ed v matematice Rusk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly jsou nyn\u00ed t\u0159ikr\u00e1t v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, a to jak v aktivn\u00ed slu\u017eb\u011b, tak v z\u00e1loze. V\u00fdhoda Ruska ale nespo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 pouze v lidsk\u00e9 s\u00edle. Pozn\u00e1mka – Rusk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly jsou prim\u00e1rn\u011b um\u00edst\u011bny v Rusku (ano, p\u00e1r jich je v S\u00fdrii) a rusk\u00fd gener\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0161t\u00e1b m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159iv\u00e9st plnou s\u00edlu 1,3 milionu voj\u00e1k\u016f do frontov\u00e9 linie mnohem rychleji, ne\u017e se mohou USA a NATO zmobilizovat a p\u0159esunout. Americk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly jsou rozm\u00edst\u011bny po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b. Pokud se USA rozhodnou bojovat s Ruskem, budou m\u00edt Rusov\u00e9 jako obr\u00e1nci minim\u00e1ln\u011b p\u0159evahu t\u0159i ku jedn\u00e9 nad USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cavoliho chybn\u00fd p\u0159edpoklad? D\u00edv\u00e1 se na to, co Rusov\u00e9 za posledn\u00ed dva roky ud\u011blali, a p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee Rusko funguje v pln\u00e9 s\u00edle. P\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee proto\u017ee Rusko nevrhlo do bitvy milion a v\u00edce voj\u00e1k\u016f, v\u00fdcvik je nedostate\u010dn\u00fd a jednotky \u0161patn\u011b vycvi\u010den\u00e9. A co je hor\u0161\u00ed: v\u011b\u0159\u00ed Ukrajinc\u016fm. R\u00e1d bych v\u00e1m p\u0159ipomn\u011bl, \u017ee plukovn\u00edk Alex Vershinin, p\u00ed\u0161\u00edc\u00ed pro RUSI (Royal United Services Institute, UK), poskytl podrobnou zpr\u00e1vu, kter\u00e1 zcela ni\u010d\u00ed Cavoliho zbo\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed \u2013\u00a0<\/span>\u201eUm\u011bn\u00ed opot\u0159ebov\u00e1van\u00e9 v\u00e1lky: Pou\u010den\u00ed z rusk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky na Ukrajina“<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Opot\u0159ebovac\u00ed v\u00e1lky vy\u017eaduj\u00ed sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed \u201eum\u011bn\u00ed v\u00e1lky\u201c a jsou vedeny p\u0159\u00edstupem \u201ezam\u011b\u0159en\u00fdm na s\u00edlu\u201c, na rozd\u00edl od man\u00e9vrov\u00fdch v\u00e1lek, kter\u00e9 jsou \u201eorientovan\u00e9 na ter\u00e9n\u201c. Spol\u00e9haj\u00ed na masivn\u00ed pr\u016fmyslovou kapacitu, kter\u00e1 umo\u017e\u0148uje n\u00e1hradu ztr\u00e1t, s geografickou hloubkou, kter\u00e1 dok\u00e1\u017ee absorbovat \u0159adu por\u00e1\u017eek, a na technologick\u00fdch podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch, kter\u00e9 br\u00e1n\u00ed rychl\u00e9mu pohybu zem\u011b. V opot\u0159ebovac\u00edch v\u00e1lk\u00e1ch jsou vojensk\u00e9 operace ur\u010dov\u00e1ny sp\u00ed\u0161e schopnost\u00ed st\u00e1tu nahradit ztr\u00e1ty a vytvo\u0159it nov\u00e9 formace ne\u017e taktick\u00fdmi a opera\u010dn\u00edmi man\u00e9vry.\u00a0<\/span>Strana, kter\u00e1 akceptuje vy\u010derp\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed povahu v\u00e1lky a soust\u0159ed\u00ed se sp\u00ed\u0161e na zni\u010den\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch sil ne\u017e na z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed pozice, s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed vyhraje.<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1pad nen\u00ed na tento druh v\u00e1lky p\u0159ipraven.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Pro v\u011bt\u0161inu z\u00e1padn\u00edch odborn\u00edk\u016f je strategie opot\u0159eben\u00ed kontraintuitivn\u00ed. Historicky Z\u00e1pad up\u0159ednost\u0148oval kr\u00e1tk\u00e1 st\u0159etnut\u00ed mezi profesion\u00e1ln\u00edmi arm\u00e1dami, kde v\u00edt\u011bz bere v\u0161e. Ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 hry jako CSIS War for Taiwan zahrnovaly m\u011bs\u00edc boj\u016f. O mo\u017enosti, \u017ee v\u00e1lka bude pokra\u010dovat, se nikdy nediskutovalo. To odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00fd z\u00e1padn\u00ed postoj. Opot\u0159ebovac\u00ed v\u00e1lky jsou pova\u017eov\u00e1ny za v\u00fdjimky, \u010demu je t\u0159eba se za ka\u017edou cenu vyhnout a obvykle kv\u016fli neschopnosti t\u011bch u moci. V\u00e1lky mezi sousedn\u00edmi mocnostmi maj\u00ed bohu\u017eel tendenci b\u00fdt opot\u0159ebovac\u00edmi v\u00e1lkami, proto\u017ee je k dispozici velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed zdroj\u016f, kter\u00e9 mohou nahradit po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty. Vysiluj\u00edc\u00ed povaha boje, v\u010detn\u011b eroze profesionality kv\u016fli ob\u011btem, vyrovn\u00e1v\u00e1 boji\u0161t\u011b bez ohledu na to, kter\u00e1 arm\u00e1da za\u010dala s l\u00e9pe vycvi\u010den\u00fdmi silami.\u00a0<\/span>Pokud se konflikt prot\u00e1hne, v\u00e1lku vyhraje ekonomika, nikoli arm\u00e1dy.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0St\u00e1ty, kter\u00e9 to ch\u00e1pou a vedou takovou v\u00e1lku se strategi\u00ed opot\u0159eben\u00ed navr\u017eenou tak, aby vy\u010derpaly nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 zdroje a z\u00e1rove\u0148 \u0161et\u0159ily sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed, maj\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u0161anci vyhr\u00e1t. Nejrychlej\u0161\u00edm zp\u016fsobem, jak prohr\u00e1t opot\u0159ebovac\u00ed v\u00e1lku, je soust\u0159edit se na man\u00e9vry a v\u011bnovat cenn\u00e9 zdroje na kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 \u00fazemn\u00ed c\u00edle. Uv\u011bdomit si, \u017ee opot\u0159ebovac\u00ed v\u00e1lky maj\u00ed sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed um\u011bn\u00ed, je z\u00e1sadn\u00ed pro to, abychom je vyhr\u00e1li, ani\u017e bychom utrp\u011bli ochromuj\u00edc\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Simplicius myslitel, p\u00ed\u0161\u00edc\u00ed na Substacku, se hluboce pono\u0159il do Vershininovy \u200b\u200banal\u00fdzy a vysv\u011btluje, co to znamen\u00e1 pro Rusko:<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejen, \u017ee m\u00e1me potvrzen\u00ed od z\u00e1padn\u00edch think-tank\u016f a nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edch ukrajinsk\u00fdch \u00fa\u0159ad\u016f, \u017ee Rusko dodr\u017euje p\u0159\u00edsnou politiku obsazen\u00ed a obnovy brig\u00e1d, neust\u00e1le rotuje voj\u00e1ky a nikdy nedovol\u00ed, aby byly brig\u00e1dy decimov\u00e1ny do takov\u00e9 m\u00edry, jakou mus\u00ed b\u00fdt AFU. P\u0159ipome\u0148me si v\u0161ak, jak Rusko vyu\u017eilo zku\u0161en\u00e9 wagnersk\u00e9 veter\u00e1ny p\u0159esn\u011b v\u00fd\u0161e popsan\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem. \u201eRozm\u00edstili\u201c Wagnera a dal\u0161\u00ed zku\u0161en\u00e9 bojov\u00e9 jednotky po cel\u00e9 formaci, p\u0159idali je jak k jednotk\u00e1m Achmat, tak k jednotk\u00e1m Rosgvardie a dal\u0161\u00edm, a dokonce je p\u0159ivedli k v\u00fdcviku b\u011blorusk\u00fdch jednotek.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Rusko zkr\u00e1tka striktn\u011b dodr\u017euje pravidla hry pro ide\u00e1ln\u00ed vyu\u017eit\u00ed sil a znalost\u00ed, moudrosti a zku\u0161enost\u00ed na boji\u0161ti \u2013 a d\u011bl\u00e1 v\u0161e pro to, aby nesm\u00edrn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 znalosti t\u011bch nejzku\u0161en\u011bj\u0161\u00edch v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00edk\u016f nikdy nep\u0159i\u0161ly nazmar, ale v\u017edy je zn\u00e1sobily a v pln\u00e9 m\u00ed\u0159e se vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Cavoli se odd\u00e1v\u00e1 zastaral\u00e9 fantasy z druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee Rusov\u00e9 zah\u00e1j\u00ed bleskovou v\u00e1lka, a proto\u017ee to neud\u011blali, p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee nemohli kv\u016fli \u0161patn\u011b vycvi\u010den\u00fdm a \u0161patn\u011b vybaven\u00fdm voj\u00e1k\u016fm. Pokud soud\u00ed historie, ru\u0161t\u00ed gener\u00e1lov\u00e9 jsou mnohem lep\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e to, co jim Z\u00e1pad nab\u00edz\u00ed. Zat\u00edmco Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 byli vyhn\u00e1ni z Vietnamu a Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu, Rusov\u00e9 roz\u017ev\u00fdkali ukrajinsk\u00e9 s\u00edly a zdecimovali z\u00e1soby d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdch zbran\u00ed ve skladech NATO. Rusko m\u00e1 prost\u0159edky na pr\u016flom, ale to nen\u00ed jejich stanoven\u00fd c\u00edl. Ot\u011br! Rusko rad\u011bji vykrv\u00e1c\u00ed Ukrajinu a jej\u00ed spojence v NATO, ne\u017e aby riskovalo \u00fatoky s vysok\u00fdm po\u010dtem ob\u011bt\u00ed, kter\u00e9 preferuj\u00ed lid\u00e9 jako Cavoli.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdm \u00fakolem ka\u017ed\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy je identifikovat z\u00e1kladn\u00ed p\u0159edpoklady o \u010dinnosti nebo osob\u011b, kterou analyzujeme. Pokud…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":22806,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,7355,22,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54598"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=54598"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54598\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22806"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=54598"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=54598"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=54598"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}