{"id":5415,"date":"2021-10-16T04:26:05","date_gmt":"2021-10-16T02:26:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=5415"},"modified":"2021-10-16T04:40:11","modified_gmt":"2021-10-16T02:40:11","slug":"volebni-zemetreseni-spis-mensi-zachvev-ale-nemene-znicujici","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2021\/10\/16\/volebni-zemetreseni-spis-mensi-zachvev-ale-nemene-znicujici\/","title":{"rendered":"VOLEBN\u00cd ZEM\u011aT\u0158ESEN\u00cd? SP\u00cd\u0160 MEN\u0160\u00cd Z\u00c1CHV\u011aV. ALE NEM\u00c9N\u011a ZNI\u010cUJ\u00cdC\u00cd"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Volby p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 nezam\u00edchaly s procenty, ale s politickou situac\u00ed ano. Nast\u00e1v\u00e1 zm\u011bna. Av\u0161ak ob\u00e1v\u00e1m se, \u017ee zm\u011bna k lep\u0161\u00edmu to rozhodn\u011b nebude.<\/header>\n

\u00davodem bych upozornil na jednu v\u011bc, kter\u00e9 si m\u00e1lokdo v\u0161\u00edm\u00e1. Tyto volby nep\u0159inesly \u017e\u00e1dnou v\u00fdznamnou zm\u011bnu voli\u010dsk\u00fdch preferenc\u00ed. M\u016f\u017ee se to zd\u00e1t podivn\u00e9 \u2013 v\u017edy\u0165 z\u0159ejm\u011b znamenaj\u00ed v\u00fdm\u011bnu stran u\u00a0vl\u00e1dy. Pokud se ale pod\u00edv\u00e1me na z\u00edskan\u00e9 hlasy, zjist\u00edme, \u017ee z\u00e1sadn\u00ed p\u0159elom nenastal.<\/p>\n

Minul\u00e9 volby v\u017edy p\u0159inesly zem\u011bt\u0159esen\u00ed v\u00a0procentu\u00e1ln\u00edch zisc\u00edch stran. A\u0165 u\u017e to byly ty 2013 (propad ODS skoro o\u00a02\/3 hlas\u016f a raketov\u00fd n\u00e1stup ANO) nebo 2017 (propad \u010cSSD analogick\u00fd k\u00a0minul\u00e9mu propadu ODS, dal\u0161\u00ed prudk\u00e9 pos\u00edlen\u00ed ANO a razantn\u00ed n\u00e1stup Pir\u00e1t\u016f a SPD).<\/p>\n

Ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0t\u00edm je sou\u010dasn\u00e1 zm\u011bna preferenc\u00ed zoufale nudn\u00e1. Parlamentn\u00ed vyhazov \u010cSSD a KS\u010cM nevypad\u00e1 nikterak dramaticky \u2013 vzhledem k\u00a0tomu, \u017ee i\u00a0minule nebyly jejich v\u00fdsledky nijak osl\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed. Dokonce ani \u00fasp\u011bch SPOLU neznamen\u00e1 v\u00fdraznou zm\u011bnu \u2013 pokud u\u00a0t\u011bch 3 sou\u010dasn\u00fdch koaluj\u00edc\u00edch stran se\u010dteme procentu\u00e1ln\u00ed zisky z\u00a0minul\u00fdch voleb, vid\u00edme zde n\u00e1r\u016fst jen o\u00a05 procentn\u00edch bod\u016f. U\u00a0ANO, Star\u00e1t\u016f a SPD je zm\u011bna oproti minulu sp\u00ed\u0161e kosmetick\u00e1. Jedin\u00fdm relativn\u011b \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fdm nov\u00e1\u010dkem se stal \u0160lachta, av\u0161ak k\u00a0probojov\u00e1n\u00ed se do sn\u011bmovny mu to nesta\u010dilo.<\/p>\n

P\u0159\u00ed\u010dina, pro\u010d tyto volby dopadly takto p\u0159elomov\u011b, spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v\u00a0n\u011b\u010dem jin\u00e9m. P\u0159ekvapiv\u011b to nen\u00ed ani z\u00e1sah aktivist\u016f z\u00a0\u00dastavn\u00edho soudu (ten neovlivnil v\u00fdsledn\u00e9 mand\u00e1ty t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u016fbec). Skute\u010dn\u00e1 p\u0159\u00ed\u010dina spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 ve dvou v\u011bcech: Jednak je to velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed propadl\u00fdch hlas\u016f u\u00a0Babi\u0161ov\u00fdch potenci\u00e1ln\u00edch koali\u010dn\u00edch partner\u016f a jednak spojen\u00ed Demobloku do koalic a t\u00edm konec jejich rozdroben\u00ed do p\u011btiprocentn\u00edch stran.<\/p>\n

Jin\u00fdmi slovy: Babi\u0161 m\u00e1 ve sn\u011bmovn\u011b zhruba stejnou s\u00edlu jako po minul\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch. Tehdy mu ov\u0161em hr\u00e1la do karet sn\u011bmovn\u00ed \u00fa\u010dast \u010cSSD a KS\u010cM a tak\u00e9 to, \u017ee Demoblok m\u011bl m\u00e1lo mand\u00e1t\u016f v\u00a0p\u0159epo\u010dtu na procenta (trio KDU-TOP-STAN tehdy z\u00edskalo 16 %, co\u017e by u\u00a0jedn\u00e9 strany odpov\u00eddalo zhruba 35 mand\u00e1t\u016fm, ale ve skute\u010dnosti jich ty strany z\u00edskaly jen 23). D\u00edky tomu m\u011bl Babi\u0161 dostatek sil, aby mohl slo\u017eit vl\u00e1du. A\u00a0a\u010dkoliv se preference tolik nezm\u011bnily, tak Babi\u0161 o\u00a0tuto v\u00fdhodu te\u010f p\u0159i\u0161el.<\/p>\n

Tolik such\u00e1 \u0159e\u010d \u010d\u00edsel. Nyn\u00ed p\u00e1r subjektivn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch koment\u00e1\u0159\u016f k\u00a0jednotliv\u00fdm stran\u00e1m a k\u00a0tomu, co n\u00e1s te\u010f \u010dek\u00e1.<\/strong><\/p>\n

ANO uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee si i\u00a0p\u0159es v\u0161echny pr\u016f\u0161vihy dok\u00e1\u017ee udr\u017eet stabiln\u00ed podporu. Ot\u00e1zka ov\u0161em je, nakolik je to d\u00e1no obl\u00edbenost\u00ed Babi\u0161e a krok\u016f jeho vl\u00e1dy a nakolik volbou men\u0161\u00edho zla oproti Demobloku. Nev\u011b\u0159\u00edm, \u017ee by v\u00a0na\u0161\u00ed spole\u010dnosti bylo a\u017e tolik masochist\u016f, a proto se klon\u00edm ke druh\u00e9 variant\u011b.<\/p>\n

SPOLU podle m\u011b usp\u011blo paradoxn\u011b z\u00a0t\u00e9 sam\u00e9 p\u0159\u00ed\u010diny: Pro mnoho lid\u00ed bylo rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed \u201enevolit Babi\u0161e\u201c a SPOLU pro n\u011b vy\u0161lo jako to men\u0161\u00ed zlo jak oproti ANO, tak nakonec i\u00a0oproti Pir\u00e1t\u016fm. Podpora stran z\u00fa\u010dastn\u011bn\u00fdch v\u00a0t\u00e9to koalici byla a\u017e druho\u0159ad\u00e1. (Osobn\u011b jsem p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den, \u017ee jakmile se dostanou do vl\u00e1dy, tak mnoho jejich voli\u010d\u016f sv\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed o\u00a0\u201emen\u0161\u00edm zlu\u201c u\u017e brzy p\u0159ehodnot\u00ed, ale to u\u017e bude pozd\u011b.) Kupodivu tady nevy\u0161el p\u0159edpoklad n\u011bkter\u00fdch koment\u00e1tor\u016f o\u00a0krou\u017ekov\u00e1n\u00ed ODS \u2013 naopak vid\u00edme, \u017ee i\u00a0TOP 09 a lidovci budou m\u00edt ve sn\u011bmovn\u011b dost zna\u010dn\u00e9 zastoupen\u00ed. Co\u017e, vzhledem k\u00a0eurosvaz\u00e1ctv\u00ed Pekarov\u00e9 a k\u00a0udava\u010dsk\u00e9 n\u00e1tu\u0159e Jure\u010dky, nev\u011bst\u00ed nic dobr\u00e9ho.<\/p>\n

Pir\u00e1ti naopak dostali t\u011b\u017ek\u00fd krou\u017ekovac\u00ed v\u00fdprask \u2013 a po tom, co p\u0159edv\u00e1d\u011bli v\u00a0minul\u00fdch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch, nen\u00ed divu. Nej\u00e1sejme ov\u0161em p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u011b. \u00dasp\u011bch STAN toti\u017e nen\u00ed v\u00fdraznou \u00falevou. Toto hnut\u00ed m\u00e1 sice oproti Pir\u00e1t\u016fm lep\u0161\u00ed marketing (ned\u00e1v\u00e1 ty nejost\u0159ej\u0161\u00ed v\u011bci tak najevo), ale jejich skute\u010dn\u00e1 politika se od nich moc neli\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

SPD p\u0159edvedlo, \u017ee si dok\u00e1\u017ee udr\u017eet stabiln\u00ed podporu voli\u010d\u016f \u2013 ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 \u017ee jich neum\u00ed z\u00edskat v\u00edc. Op\u011bt se ukazuje, \u017ee aby m\u011bli euroskeptici ve sn\u011bmovn\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed zast\u00e1n\u00ed, je pot\u0159eba dostat tam je\u0161t\u011b jednu podobnou stranu, proto\u017ee SPD u\u017e nar\u00e1\u017e\u00ed na sv\u016fj strop.<\/p>\n

U \u010cSSD a KS\u010cM se propad dal \u010dekat \u2013 u\u00a0prvn\u00ed jmenovan\u00e9 strany je to v\u00edce ne\u017e zaslou\u017een\u00fd v\u00fdprask za Ham\u00e1\u010dkovy kroky, u\u00a0druh\u00e9 ze stran sp\u00ed\u0161e d\u016fsledek vym\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed jejich voli\u010d\u016f a ne\u00fasp\u011bchu v\u00a0jejich chab\u00e9m pokusu oslovit mlad\u00e9.<\/p>\n

U Trikolory bylo v\u00a0posledn\u00ed dob\u011b vid\u011bt, \u017ee se rozpad\u00e1 a \u017ee to tam p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b t\u00e1hnou jen Svobodn\u00ed. Tomu tak\u00e9 odpov\u00edd\u00e1 v\u00fdsledek, kter\u00fd je jen nepatrn\u011b lep\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e u\u00a0Svobodn\u00fdch v\u00a0roce 2013. P\u0159\u00ed\u010din, pro\u010d to nevyt\u00e1hli v\u00fd\u0161e, je n\u011bkolik: P\u0159\u00edli\u0161n\u00e9 lp\u011bn\u00ed na liber\u00e1ln\u011b-pravicov\u00fdch dogmatech (kter\u00e1 95 % voli\u010d\u016f odrazuj\u00ed), velk\u00e1 konkurence SPD (kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 mnohem lep\u0161\u00ed marketing) a tak\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dast osob, kter\u00e9 dost voli\u010d\u016f sp\u00ed\u0161e odpuzuj\u00ed, jako je nap\u0159. izraelsk\u00fd agent Bohbot. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b Trikolora st\u00e1le nen\u00ed \u00fapln\u011b vy\u0159azena ze hry, a pokud se dok\u00e1\u017ee zm\u011bnit, ur\u010dit\u00fd potenci\u00e1l do budoucna m\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Voln\u00fd blok je u\u017e n\u011bkolik\u00e1t\u00fd marketingov\u00fd projekt Jany Volfov\u00e9, kter\u00fd zkrachoval. Voln\u00fd ud\u011blal v\u00fdznamnou chybu, \u017ee se pod\u0159\u00eddil Volfov\u00e9 a jej\u00edm man\u00fdr\u016fm a \u017ee nesplnil sv\u016fj d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed slib, \u017ee sjednot\u00ed men\u0161\u00ed vlasteneck\u00e9 strany. Te\u010f u\u017e je na to pozd\u011b. Voln\u00fd blok odch\u00e1z\u00ed do zapomn\u011bn\u00ed \u2013 a je smutn\u00e9, \u017ee s\u00a0sebou st\u00e1hl i\u00a0rozumn\u00e9 lidi typu Hany Lipovsk\u00e9.<\/p>\n

U ostatn\u00edch stran je v\u00fdsledek bez v\u011bt\u0161\u00edch p\u0159ekvapen\u00ed, za v\u00edt\u011bze se d\u00e1 ozna\u010dit snad jen Urza \u2013 bez ohledu na z\u00edskan\u00e9 hlasy (kter\u00e9 stejn\u011b necht\u011bl) se mu poda\u0159il hlavn\u00ed c\u00edl: Do v\u0161ech dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed se dostal l\u00edstek s\u00a0jeho programem, a to mnohem levn\u011bji (sta\u010dila kauce 19 tis\u00edc za kraj), ne\u017e by ho st\u00e1l tisk a roznos let\u00e1k\u016f.<\/p>\n

Tolik sou\u010dasnost. A\u00a0co n\u00e1s \u010dek\u00e1 v\u00a0bl\u00edzk\u00e9 budoucnosti?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Velmi pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b koalice \u201eSpolu pod stanem\u201c \u2013 tedy ODS+STAN+KDU+TOP 09 (a asi i\u00a0Pir\u00e1t\u016f, i\u00a0kdy\u017e ti tam ani nejsou pot\u0159eba). Tedy situace velmi podobn\u00e1 Ne\u010dasov\u011b vl\u00e1d\u011b. Se v\u0161emi d\u016fsledky, kter\u00e9 z\u00a0toho vypl\u00fdvaj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0prvn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b n\u00e1s \u010dek\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed utu\u017een\u00ed pom\u011br\u016f.\u00a0To, kv\u016fli \u010demu jsme nejv\u00edc nad\u00e1vali na Babi\u0161e (podl\u00e9z\u00e1n\u00ed EU, neochota postavit se proti Green Dealu, omezov\u00e1n\u00ed svobody slova, zadlu\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed zem\u011b a korona-totalita v\u010detn\u011b segregace neo\u010dkovan\u00fdch) nejen\u017ee nezmiz\u00ed, ale nabere to je\u0161t\u011b daleko v\u011bt\u0161\u00edch obr\u00e1tek.<\/strong>\u00a0Vypad\u00e1 to, \u017ee n\u00e1s \u010dekaj\u00ed t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 \u010dasy.<\/p>\n

Na druhou stranu z\u00a0toho vypl\u00fdv\u00e1 jist\u00e1 nad\u011bje. Demoblok se dlouhou dobu h\u0159\u00e1l v\u00a0opozici, tak\u017ee lid\u00e9 zapomn\u011bli na Ne\u010dasovu vl\u00e1du (a mlad\u00e1 generace ji ani nepamatuje). Te\u010f, kdy\u017e se dostanou ke korytu, velmi rychle vyjde najevo, co jsou za\u010d \u2013 a podpora vl\u00e1dn\u00edch stran op\u011bt prudce klesne. Vznikne velk\u00fd potenci\u00e1l zklaman\u00fdch voli\u010d\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed nemaj\u00ed pro koho hlasovat \u2013 ot\u00e1zka je jen, kdo tyto voli\u010de shr\u00e1bne, zda Babi\u0161 (kter\u00fd se v\u00a0opozici v\u00a0o\u010d\u00edch lid\u00ed \u201eo\u010dist\u00ed\u201c podobn\u011b jako dote\u010f Demoblok), nebo n\u011bkdo jin\u00fd.<\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc vis\u00ed ve vzduchu p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9 volby. M\u00e1m pocit, \u017ee nastupuj\u00edc\u00ed koalice 4 (nebo dokonce 5) stran se nedohodne pomalu ani na barv\u011b desek pro programov\u00e9 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed vl\u00e1dy, nato\u017e na d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdch v\u011bcech. Jak psal jeden kolega \u2013\u00a0jedin\u00fdm jejich sjednocuj\u00edc\u00edm t\u00e9matem byl AntiBabi\u0161 \u2013 a te\u010f, kdy\u017e toto t\u00e9ma padlo, \u010dekaj\u00ed koalici sam\u00e9 rozkoly<\/strong>. A\u00a0108 poslanc\u016f nen\u00ed zrovna pevn\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161ina.<\/p>\n

Jin\u00fdmi slovy: M\u00e1me \u0161anci, \u017ee se koalice rozh\u00e1d\u00e1 (podobn\u011b jako za Ne\u010dase) a \u017ee mezit\u00edm sta\u010d\u00ed znechutit lidi natolik, \u017ee p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed volby dopadnou l\u00e9pe. \u017de sou\u010dasn\u00e9 koaluj\u00edc\u00ed strany dostanou zaslou\u017een\u00fd v\u00fdprask a vyhraje n\u011bkdo jin\u00fd. Ale t\u00edm nemysl\u00edm Babi\u0161e (to by bylo jen o\u00a0m\u00e1lo lep\u0161\u00ed).\u00a0Vznik\u00e1 potenci\u00e1l pro nov\u00e9 (\u010di dosud slab\u00e9) strany.<\/strong>\u00a0A\u0165 u\u017e levicov\u00e9 nebo pravicov\u00e9. Sta\u010d\u00ed, aby na\u0161ly jednot\u00edc\u00ed prvek pro spole\u010dnou kandid\u00e1tku.<\/p>\n

A vzhledem k\u00a0tomu, co te\u010f asi nastane, je ten jednot\u00edc\u00ed prvek jasn\u00fd:\u00a0Ukon\u010dit Green Deal a emisn\u00ed povolenky, zav\u00e9st energetickou sob\u011bsta\u010dnost \u010cR (co\u017e zlevn\u00ed elekt\u0159inu) a postavit se proti \u201et\u0159\u00eddn\u00edmu boji\u201c, kter\u00fd EU vede proti \u0159idi\u010d\u016fm.<\/strong><\/p>\n

To je pro n\u00e1s \u00fakol do p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch voleb. A\u00a0ty u\u017e zem\u011bt\u0159esen\u00ed v\u00a0procentech p\u0159inesou. A\u00a0je jen na n\u00e1s, jestli v\u00a0n\u00e1\u0161 prosp\u011bch.<\/p>\n

Mgr. Jan Sedl\u00e1\u010dek<\/a>
\nautor je m\u00edstop\u0159edseda N\u00e1rodn\u00ed demokracie a p\u0159edseda N\u00e1rodn\u00ed ml\u00e1de\u017ee<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

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Volby p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 nezam\u00edchaly s procenty, ale s politickou situac\u00ed ano. Nast\u00e1v\u00e1 zm\u011bna. Av\u0161ak ob\u00e1v\u00e1m se,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":5417,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[29,85,27],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5415"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5415"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5415\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5417"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5415"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5415"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5415"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}