{"id":53999,"date":"2024-05-18T00:33:23","date_gmt":"2024-05-17T22:33:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=53999"},"modified":"2024-05-17T19:07:43","modified_gmt":"2024-05-17T17:07:43","slug":"zbynek-fiala-uroky-klesnou-a-koruna-posili","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/05\/18\/zbynek-fiala-uroky-klesnou-a-koruna-posili\/","title":{"rendered":"Zbyn\u011bk Fiala: \u00daroky klesnou a koruna pos\u00edl\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Potraviny a pohonn\u00e9 hmoty v dubnu ne\u010dekan\u011b posunuly spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 ceny o necel\u00e1 t\u0159i procenta v\u00fd\u0161e ne\u017e p\u0159ed rokem, ale \u0161patn\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va je dopln\u011bn\u00e1 lep\u0161\u00ed \u2013 koruna kone\u010dn\u011b s\u00edl\u00ed a \u00faroky budou pokra\u010dovat v poklesu.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u010cesk\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banka pr\u00e1v\u011b vydala jeden z\u00a0kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch makroekonomick\u00fdch dokument\u016f, kter\u00fd n\u00e1m umo\u017e\u0148uje orientaci v\u00a0proudu nejr\u016fzn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch ukazatel\u016f. Je j\u00edm \u010dtvrtletn\u00ed Zpr\u00e1va o m\u011bnov\u00e9 politice, kterou m\u016f\u017eeme \u010d\u00edst i jako zpr\u00e1vu o inflaci. Proto je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 \u00favodn\u00ed sd\u011blen\u00ed guvern\u00e9ra \u010cNB Ale\u0161e Michla, \u017ee \u201einflace se dle progn\u00f3zy bude pohybovat v\u00a0t\u011bsn\u00e9 bl\u00edzkosti infla\u010dn\u00edho c\u00edle ve v\u00fd\u0161i 2 %\u201c. A k\u00a0tomu je\u0161t\u011b dopln\u011bn\u00ed, \u017ee k\u00a0tomuto c\u00edli \u201ebankovn\u00ed rada potvrzuje sv\u00e9 odhodl\u00e1n\u00ed pokra\u010dovat v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edsn\u00e9 m\u011bnov\u00e9 politice\u201c.<\/p>\n

Mo\u017en\u00e1 to n\u011bkomu zn\u00ed trochu v\u00a0rozporu se zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00edm, \u017ee v\u00a0dubnu rostly spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 ceny meziro\u010dn\u011b o 2,9 procenta hn\u00e1ny zejm\u00e9na potravinami a pohonn\u00fdmi hmotami. Inflace se cuk\u00e1, bylo na n\u00ed zad\u011bl\u00e1no nejen mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edm v\u00fdvojem, kter\u00fd neovlivn\u00edme (ale nemuseli jsme p\u0159il\u00e9vat oleje do ohn\u011b). Je to d\u00e1no tak\u00e9 oligopoln\u00edm charakterem \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky, nav\u00edc ovl\u00e1dan\u00e9 ze zahrani\u010d\u00ed, kde vl\u00e1da p\u0159isp\u00edv\u00e1 jen vr\u0161en\u00edm dluh\u016f.<\/p>\n

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Nejsme je\u0161t\u011b tedy z\u00a0lesa venku. Pro dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj inflace budou mo\u017en\u00e1 d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e ceny ropy na sv\u011btov\u00fdch trz\u00edch vstupy politick\u00e9ho charakteru, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm protesty zem\u011bd\u011blc\u016f a odbor\u00e1\u0159\u016f p\u0159ed evropsk\u00fdmi volbami. Politika mus\u00ed b\u00fdt dotla\u010dena ke konstruktivn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu p\u0159\u00edstupu, ne\u017e je vyhro\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00e1lkou a n\u00e1kupy zbran\u00ed.<\/p>\n

S\u00a0m\u011bnou je to trochu lep\u0161\u00ed. Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby se za\u010daly od V\u00e1noc sni\u017eovat z\u00a0v\u00fdchoz\u00edch 7 procent, to ano, ale ne moc, zat\u00edm jen na 5,25 procenta, ale nav\u00e1zaly na to slovn\u00ed intervence \u010cNB na t\u00e9ma p\u0159\u00edsn\u00e9 m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky.\u00a0 Tahle kombinace za\u010dala korun\u011b pom\u00e1hat z\u00a0devalva\u010dn\u00ed pasti, a tak za\u010dala znovu posilovat. \u010cesk\u00e1 m\u011bna u\u017e se pod\u00edvala pod 25 korun za euro a od pond\u011bl\u00ed pod 23 korun za dolar.<\/p>\n

Jinou v\u011bc\u00ed je, \u017ee i \u010cNB dubnov\u00e1 infla\u010dn\u00ed statistika trochu zasko\u010dila, proto\u017ee jedn\u00e1n\u00ed bankovn\u00ed rady, na kter\u00e9m p\u0159ij\u00edmala svoji jarn\u00ed zpr\u00e1vu o m\u011bnov\u00e9 politice, prob\u011bhla t\u00fdden p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e byla \u010derstv\u00e1 data k\u00a0dispozici. Ale v\u00fdkyv nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt trend. Kdy tedy p\u016fjdou \u010desk\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby je\u0161t\u011b n\u00ed\u017ee, kam zam\u00ed\u0159\u00ed a od \u010deho se to odv\u00edj\u00ed? M\u016f\u017eeme se od\u00edvat na shrnuj\u00edc\u00ed prezentaci \u010dlena bankovn\u00ed rady Tom\u00e1\u0161e Holuba, kter\u00fd to m\u00e1 u\u017e dlouh\u00e1 l\u00e9ta na starosti.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.cnb.cz\/export\/sites\/cnb\/cs\/verejnost\/.galleries\/pro_media\/konference_projevy\/vystoupeni_projevy\/download\/holub_20240510_praha.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n

Nap\u0159ed se pod\u00edvejme na v\u00fdvoj inflace, kde m\u016f\u017eeme porovnat v\u00fdvoj v\u00a0\u010cesku (naho\u0159e) a v\u00a0euroz\u00f3n\u011b (dole).<\/p>\n

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Vid\u00edme, \u017ee ten stra\u0161liv\u00fd hrb u\u017e m\u00e1me za sebou. \u010cesk\u00e1 inflace p\u0159itom stoupala v\u00fd\u0161e ne\u017e v\u00a0euroz\u00f3n\u011b a m\u011bla strm\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pr\u016fb\u011bh, na \u010dem\u017e se z\u0159ejm\u011b pod\u00edlelo i zbyte\u010dn\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sazeb na 7 procent za guvern\u00e9ra Rusnoka, se kter\u00fdm pak u\u017e Michl musel \u017e\u00edt. M\u011bli jsme pak vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed j\u00e1drovou inflaci (bez energie a potravin) a vid\u00edme, \u017ee na r\u016fstu inflace se p\u0159i\u017eivily i pohonn\u00e9 hmoty, kter\u00e9 byly v\u00a0euroz\u00f3n\u011b v\u00a0klidu. Euroz\u00f3n\u011b tak\u00e9 pomohlo inflaci tlumit sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed regulovan\u00fdch cen, zat\u00edmco u n\u00e1s to prob\u011bhlo p\u0159esn\u011b opa\u010dn\u011b.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed graf ukazuje rozd\u00edln\u00fd v\u00fdvoj cen zbo\u017e\u00ed a slu\u017eeb. V dob\u011b tvorby grafu p\u0159ed m\u011bs\u00edcem se ceny zbo\u017e\u00ed p\u0159est\u00e1valy h\u00fdbat, ale slu\u017eby, v\u00a0\u010cesku hlavn\u011b n\u00e1jemn\u00e9 a restaurace, pokra\u010duj\u00ed v r\u016fstu.<\/p>\n

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V\u00fdmluvn\u00fd je tak\u00e9 obr\u00e1zek s re\u00e1ln\u00fdm v\u00fdvojem HDP (po ode\u010dtu inflace), kter\u00fd zachycuje i to, jak se na tom pod\u00edlely jednotliv\u00e9 segmenty n\u00e1rodn\u00edho hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed.<\/p>\n

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Jasn\u011b vid\u00edme, jak byly bity dom\u00e1cnosti, jejich\u017e chyb\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed spot\u0159eba (modr\u00e9 sloupe\u010dky vpravo pod \u010darou ponoru) byla vyva\u017eov\u00e1na \u010dist\u00fdm v\u00fdvozem (zelen\u00e1 nad nulou). Jen\u017ee v\u00fdvoz byl ta\u017een automobilov\u00fdm pr\u016fmyslem jen proto, \u017ee m\u011bl kone\u010dn\u011b dost sou\u010d\u00e1stek, aby mohl dokon\u010dit dlouhodobou z\u00e1sobu objedn\u00e1vek. Tohle samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nebude trvat v\u011b\u010dn\u011b. Za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 d\u016frazn\u011bji hrozit i nastupuj\u00edc\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 konkurence. Na poklesu investic (tvorby hrub\u00e9ho kapit\u00e1lu, hlubok\u00fd propad \u017elut\u00e9) vid\u00edme, \u017ee s\u00edly bohu\u017eel doch\u00e1zej\u00ed i podnik\u016fm.<\/p>\n

Znovu to potvrzuje pot\u0159ebu lokalizace, v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho pod\u00edlu dom\u00e1c\u00ed v\u00fdroby pro dom\u00e1c\u00ed spot\u0159ebu, spolu s\u00a0vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00edm podm\u00ednek pro to, aby na to dom\u00e1cnosti m\u011bly. \u010cNB se mzdov\u00fd r\u016fst moc l\u00edbit nebude, ale bez n\u011bj to nejde.<\/p>\n

Co n\u00e1s tedy \u010dek\u00e1? Dal\u0161\u00ed graf je extr\u00e9mn\u011b v\u00fdmluvn\u00fd a moc \u010dasto ho neuvid\u00edte. Sentiment dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed u\u017e se lep\u0161\u00ed, ale po\u0159\u00e1d je pod nulou. Ekonomick\u00e1 (o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed) a finan\u010dn\u00ed situace dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed byly dlouho \u0161patn\u00e9, p\u0159esun \u00famyslu spo\u0159it do negativn\u00edho p\u00e1sma napov\u00edd\u00e1 sp\u00ed\u0161 o v\u00fdb\u011brech a dluz\u00edch. Spot\u0159eba to tedy nevtrhne, o exportu u\u017e jsme mluvili a vl\u00e1du brzd\u00ed dluhy.<\/p>\n

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Skoro se chce \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee na dal\u0161\u00ed inflaci ani nem\u00e1me, kdekdo jede na doraz. To podle mne znamen\u00e1, \u017ee ekonomika bude stagnovat nebo zam\u00ed\u0159\u00ed dol\u016f a \u00faroky v\u00a0tom p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b taky. Jak to vid\u00ed \u010cesk\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banka?<\/p>\n

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Proto\u017ee inflace m\u00e1 m\u00edt nad\u011bjn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj v\u00a0toleran\u010dn\u00edm p\u00e1smu, \u010cNB progn\u00f3zuje \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby na konci p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho roku pod 4 procenta a korunu sp\u00ed\u0161e siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e dnes. Tlust\u00fd ocas neur\u010ditosti v\u0161ak \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee to m\u016f\u017ee dopadnout hodn\u011b l\u00edp i hodn\u011b h\u016f\u0159. Jak u\u017e to s\u00a0progn\u00f3zami b\u00fdv\u00e1…<\/p>\n

Zbyn\u011bk Fiala<\/a><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Potraviny a pohonn\u00e9 hmoty v dubnu ne\u010dekan\u011b posunuly spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 ceny o necel\u00e1 t\u0159i procenta v\u00fd\u0161e…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1907,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,59,683,433,1880],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53999"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=53999"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53999\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":54000,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53999\/revisions\/54000"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1907"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=53999"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=53999"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=53999"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}