{"id":53947,"date":"2024-05-17T05:36:27","date_gmt":"2024-05-17T03:36:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=53947"},"modified":"2024-05-17T05:50:18","modified_gmt":"2024-05-17T03:50:18","slug":"michael-svatos-doktor-jack-watling-predni-analytik-britske-armady-to-vidi-letos-s-ukrajinou-cerne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/05\/17\/michael-svatos-doktor-jack-watling-predni-analytik-britske-armady-to-vidi-letos-s-ukrajinou-cerne\/","title":{"rendered":"Michael Svato\u0161: Doktor Jack Watling p\u0159edn\u00ed analytik britsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy to vid\u00ed letos s Ukrajinou \u010dern\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

CIA to vid\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b \u010dern\u011bji. (III. d\u00edl p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed expert\u016f)<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00e9rie p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed p\u0159edn\u00edch rusk\u00fdch, z\u00e1padn\u00edch i v\u00fdchodn\u00edch expert\u016f o dal\u0161\u00edm pr\u016fb\u011bhu v\u00e1lky o Ukrajinu.\u00a0 P\u0159edchoz\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi: Rusk\u00fd Akademik Andrej Kortunov =\u00a0 ZDE<\/a><\/span>\u00a0<\/strong>. \u010clen Rady n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti Indie Pankaj Saran = ZDE<\/a><\/strong><\/span>.<\/p>\n

Dr Jack Watling<\/a>\u00a0je vedouc\u00edm v\u00fdzkumn\u00fdm pracovn\u00edkem pro pozemn\u00ed v\u00e1lku v Royal United Services Institute, (RUSI).\u00a0 Watling velmi \u00fazce spolupracuje s britskou arm\u00e1dou na v\u00fdvoji nov\u00fdch vojensko-opera\u010dn\u00edch postup\u016f, na p\u0159edv\u00edd\u00e1n\u00ed charakteru budouc\u00edho v\u00e1l\u010di\u0161t\u011b, a p\u0159i prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed opera\u010dn\u00edch anal\u00fdz sou\u010dasn\u00fdch v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch konflikt\u016f. Je to tedy odborn\u00edk na v\u00e1lku par excelence a jeho n\u00e1zory na dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b jsou tak jist\u011b velmi bl\u00edzk\u00e9 sou\u010dasn\u00e9,\u00a0 \u010desk\u00fdmi m\u00e9dii rad\u011bji skr\u00fdvan\u00e9 pravd\u011b.<\/p>\n

(1) Hlavn\u00edm smyslem rusk\u00e9 letn\u00ed ofenz\u00edvy nen\u00ed pr\u016flom, ale trval\u00fd ne\u00faprosn\u00fd nezastaviteln\u00fd postup vp\u0159ed, kter\u00fd m\u00e1 Ukrajince p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit o marnosti jejich odporu. A donutit je ztr\u00e1tou kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch komunikac\u00ed mezi Charkovem a Donbasem k velk\u00e9mu \u00fastupu.<\/span><\/h3>\n
\n

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Podle Watlinga budou Rusov\u00e9 pomalu cel\u00fd rok postupovat (\u017elut\u00e9 \u0161ipky), tak aby ohrozili ukrajinsk\u00e1 velkom\u011bsta Charkov, Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed, Dn\u011bpropetrovsk, a men\u0161\u00ed m\u011bsto Sumy (b\u00edl\u00e9 pentagramy). A aby donutili Ukrajince se bez boje st\u00e1hnout z \u00fazem\u00ed dobyt\u00e9ho v roce 2022 (modr\u00e1 elipsa se \u0161ipkou). Podle Watlinga ukrajinsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da nedok\u00e1\u017ee pomal\u00fd rusk\u00fd postup zastavit, ale jen zpomalit. A to pouze pokud zmobilizuje n\u011bkolik set tis\u00edc mu\u017e\u016f, a v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 pomoc Z\u00e1padu se zmnohon\u00e1sob\u00ed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Podle anal\u00fdzy dr. Watlinga<\/a>\u00a0ze 14. kv\u011btna nen\u00ed leto\u0161n\u00edm hlavn\u00edm rusk\u00fdm c\u00edlem bojovat o Charkov, ale zni\u010dit ukrajinskou arm\u00e1du v prostoru mezi Charkovem, Donbasem a Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00edm, a donutit ji k \u00fastupu na \u0161irok\u00e9 front\u011b. V\u00fdsledkem letn\u00ed rusk\u00e9 ofenz\u00edvy pak m\u00e1 b\u00fdt dostat na dost\u0159el rusk\u00fdch d\u011bl krom Charkova i dal\u0161\u00ed dv\u011b ukrajinsk\u00e1 velkom\u011bsta Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed a Dn\u011bpropetrovsk.\u00a0A podle anal\u00fdzy CIA<\/a>\u00a0ze 14. kv\u011btna za\u010d\u00edt v\u0161echna t\u0159i velkom\u011bsta pusto\u0161it d\u011blost\u0159elbou, a tak vyvolat novou velkou uprchlickou vlnu, a zlomit ukrajinskou mor\u00e1lku. Nov\u00e1 vlna uprchl\u00edk\u016f m\u00e1 b\u00fdt dokonce tak velk\u00e1, aby ji Evropa u\u017e nebyla schopn\u00e1 absorbovat, a aby vyvolala velk\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 protiuprchlick\u00e9 pozdvi\u017een\u00ed. (Putin u\u017e v lednu pov\u011b\u0159il koz\u00e1ck\u00e9ho atamana \u017didkova,\u00a0aby p\u0159ipravil Koz\u00e1ky na p\u0159evzet\u00ed Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed, podrobn\u011b v MAP 1894<\/a>. Hlavn\u00ed s\u00edly Koz\u00e1k\u016f\u00a0se nyn\u00ed soust\u0159e\u010fuj\u00ed v t\u00fdlu \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9 skupiny Sever<\/a>\u00a0gener\u00e1la Lapina, kter\u00e1 \u00fato\u010d\u00ed na Charkov, a jsou pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b ur\u010deny k nasazen\u00ed po zlomen\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 obrany.)<\/p>\n

Dr. Watling p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee Rusov\u00e9 v l\u00e9t\u011b provedou dal\u0161\u00ed pomocn\u00e9 \u00fatoky na Ukrajince pod\u00e9l cel\u00e9 spole\u010dn\u00e9 hranice obou zem\u00ed, tedy i na Sumy a \u010cernigov sm\u011brem na Kyjev podobn\u011b jako na ja\u0159e 2022, aby maxim\u00e1ln\u011b rozt\u00e1hli d\u00e9lku fronty, a donutili po\u010detn\u011b slab\u0161\u00ed Ukrajince ke zn\u00e1m\u00e9 chyb\u011b, \u017ee obranou v\u0161eho ztrat\u00ed v\u0161e. Podle Watlingovy anal\u00fdzy je nyn\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da po\u010detn\u011b mnohem slab\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e \u00fato\u010d\u00edc\u00ed rusk\u00e9 s\u00edly.\u00a0Rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da stoj\u00edc\u00ed proti Ukrajinc\u016fm m\u00e1 podle Watlinga pouze 510 000 voj\u00e1k\u016f<\/a>!\u00a0A to je zaj\u00edmav\u00e9.\u00a0Proto\u017ee Zelenskyj se je\u0161t\u011b v lednu 2024 chv\u00e1stal, \u017ee m\u00e1 ve zbrani 880 000 voj\u00e1k\u016f!<\/a>\u00a0Z Watlingov\u00fdch \u00fadaj\u016f tak vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee jen letos za necel\u00fdch 5 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f boj\u016f se Zelensk\u00e9ho arm\u00e1da zmen\u0161ila o 400 000 voj\u00e1k\u016f! A Watling p\u0159izn\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 pro schopnost Ukrajiny udr\u017eet n\u011bjakou formu frontov\u00e9 linie nebudou ani tak dod\u00e1vky z\u00e1padn\u00edch zem\u00ed, ale schopnost Ukrajiny zmobilizovat n\u011bkolik set tis\u00edc mu\u017e\u016f, a poslat je na frontu.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Odvolan\u00fd gener\u00e1l Zalu\u017enyj po\u017eadoval u\u017e na p\u0159elomu roku zmobilizovat aspo\u0148 500 tis\u00edc mu\u017e\u016f, aby letos nahradili v\u0161echny padl\u00e9 a zmrza\u010den\u00e9. Watling p\u0159izn\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee bude t\u0159eba je\u0161t\u011b po\u010detn\u00ed stavy ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy zv\u00fd\u0161it, aby mohla kl\u00e1st odpor Rus\u016fm a zpomalovat jejich postup. To p\u0159edstavuje mobilizaci dal\u0161\u00edho p\u016flmilionu mu\u017e\u016f. Gerasimov\u016fv v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd pl\u00e1n uskute\u010d\u0148ovan\u00fd posledn\u00ed dva roky \u2013 pozab\u00edjet a zmrza\u010dit miliony Ukrajinc\u016f na co nejkrat\u0161\u00ed front\u011b, a potom je demoralizovan\u00e9 a po\u010detn\u011b vy\u010derpan\u00e9 dorazit na co nejdel\u0161\u00ed front\u011b se ukazuje jako geni\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. A Watling ve sv\u00e9 anal\u00fdze p\u0159izn\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee Z\u00e1pad nebude schopen dod\u00e1vkami zbran\u00ed jakkoli velk\u00fdmi Ukrajin\u011b proti Rusku \u00fa\u010dinn\u011b pomoci, pokud Zelenskyj nezmobilizuje dal\u0161\u00ed miliony rekrut\u016f.<\/p>\n

(2) Rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da letos, krom rozta\u017een\u00ed fronty do \u0161\u00ed\u0159ky d\u00edky m\u00edrn\u00e9 po\u010detn\u00ed p\u0159evaze, rozt\u00e1hla frontu i do hloubky d\u00edky naprost\u00e9 technick\u00e9 p\u0159evaze!<\/span><\/h3>\n

Za dva roky boj\u016f se ukrajinsk\u00e1 fronta \u00fapln\u011b zm\u011bnila<\/a>. Jestli v roce 2022 nebyla rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da schopn\u00e1 \u00fa\u010dinn\u011b zasahovat c\u00edle na hloubku v\u00edce ne\u017e 30 km od frontov\u00e9 linie, nyn\u00ed \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b ni\u010d\u00ed v\u0161echny ukrajinsk\u00e9 prost\u0159edky na hloubku v\u00edce jak 100 km od frontov\u00e9 linie. Dr. Watling ud\u00e1v\u00e1 za p\u0159\u00edklad zlep\u0161en\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch schopnost\u00ed ni\u010dit ukrajinsk\u00e9 s\u00edly v hloubce jej\u00ed obrany \u201cb\u011b\u017en\u00e9 hl\u00eddkov\u00e1n\u00ed rusk\u00fdch pr\u016fzkumn\u00fdch dron\u016f Orlan nad Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00edm\u201d. To je vzd\u00e1leno 80 a\u017e 120 km od frontov\u00e9 linie. Rusk\u00e9 drony Orlan celou tuto oblast ukrajinsk\u00e9ho opera\u010dn\u00edho t\u00fdlu denn\u011b pro\u010des\u00e1vaj\u00ed, a jakmile zjist\u00ed n\u011bjak\u00fd d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd c\u00edl, jako jsou velitelsk\u00e9 bunkry, prostory ubytov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1loh, konvoj s technikou nebo z\u00e1sobami, \u010di radar nebo protiletadlovou raketu, okam\u017eit\u011b na tyto c\u00edle navedou rusk\u00e9 taktick\u00e9 rakety nebo dalekonosn\u00e9 raketometn\u00e9 st\u0159ely Torn\u00e1do-S.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdsledkem t\u00e9to modern\u00ed technick\u00e9 on-line kontroly boji\u0161t\u011b jsou okam\u017eit\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 \u00fadery, kter\u00e9 znemo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed Ukrajinc\u016fm jakoukoli efektivn\u00ed bojovou \u010dinnost v hloubce do 100 km od fronty. Ukrajinci tak mohou pou\u017e\u00edvat jedinou taktiku \u2013 sed\u011bt v z\u00e1kopech dokud jim nedojdou z\u00e1soby a munice, a nebo dokud je rusk\u00e9 bomby nerozmetaj\u00ed na kousky. V hloubce jejich obrany se mohou pohybovat pouze jednotliv\u00e1 vozidla, ale i ta se st\u00e1vaj\u00ed ob\u011bt\u00ed sebevra\u017eedn\u00fdch dron\u016f. D\u00edky t\u00e9to rusk\u00e9 kontrole opera\u010dn\u00ed hloubky ukrajinsk\u00e9 obrany nen\u00ed kyjevsk\u00e1 soldateska\u00a0 schopn\u00e1 sv\u00e1 vojska na p\u0159edn\u00ed linii ani z\u00e1sobovat, ani dopl\u0148ovat, ani evakuovat, bez masivn\u00edch ztr\u00e1t.<\/p>\n

Podle Watlinga, aby Ukrajina leto\u0161n\u00ed rusk\u00fd \u00fader vydr\u017eela, pot\u0159ebuje nejen zmobilizovat aspo\u0148 p\u016flmilionu mu\u017e\u016f, ale Z\u00e1pad je v\u0161echny mus\u00ed modern\u011b vyzbrojit, vycvi\u010dit, a z\u0159ejm\u011b i doplnit o zku\u0161en\u00e9 \u0161t\u00e1bn\u00ed odborn\u00edky a techniky. Nav\u00edc mus\u00ed b\u00fdt na Ukrajin\u011b vybudov\u00e1n modern\u00ed protivzdu\u0161n\u00fd val, proto\u017ee jinak Rusov\u00e9 stejn\u011b celou ukrajinskou arm\u00e1du rozbombarduj\u00ed sv\u00fdmi kluz\u00e1kov\u00fdmi bombami. Vyhl\u00eddky Ukrajiny jsou letos neradostn\u00e9, uzav\u0159el anal\u00fdzu dr. Watling, a poznamenal, \u017ee pouze masivn\u00ed dod\u00e1vky z\u00e1padn\u00edch zbran\u00ed a munice, masivn\u00ed v\u00fdcvik Ukrajinc\u016f na Z\u00e1pad\u011b, a velkolep\u00e1 z\u00e1padn\u00ed obnova zni\u010den\u00e9ho ukrajinsk\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu, mohou leto\u0161n\u00ed ruskou ofenz\u00edvu otupit!<\/p>\n

Michael Svato\u0161<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

CIA to vid\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b \u010dern\u011bji. (III. d\u00edl p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed expert\u016f) Pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00e9rie p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed p\u0159edn\u00edch rusk\u00fdch, z\u00e1padn\u00edch…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":20279,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,22,26,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53947"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=53947"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53947\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":53948,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53947\/revisions\/53948"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20279"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=53947"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=53947"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=53947"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}