{"id":53270,"date":"2024-05-08T06:01:34","date_gmt":"2024-05-08T04:01:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=53270"},"modified":"2024-05-08T06:01:34","modified_gmt":"2024-05-08T04:01:34","slug":"michael-svatos-pet-expertnich-predpovedi-dalsiho-vyvoje-valky-na-ukrajine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/05\/08\/michael-svatos-pet-expertnich-predpovedi-dalsiho-vyvoje-valky-na-ukrajine\/","title":{"rendered":"Michael Svato\u0161: P\u011bt expertn\u00edch p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edho v\u00fdvoje v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b!"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

P\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f prvn\u00ed \u2013 Andrej Kortunov \u2013 Putin\u016fv Akademik a Diplomat na sank\u010dn\u00edm seznamu Z\u00e1padu.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Andrej Kortunov<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 je v\u00fdznamn\u00fd rusk\u00fd akademik, od z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2023 veden\u00fd na sank\u010dn\u00edm seznamu Kanady, na Ukrajin\u011b trestn\u011b st\u00edh\u00e1n v souvislosti s podporou invaze na Ukrajinu.\u00a0 P\u016fsobil na rusk\u00fdch diplomatick\u00fdch postech v Lond\u00fdn\u011b, ve Washingtonu i p\u0159i OSN. V letech 2011 a\u017e 2023\u00a0\u0159\u00eddil\u00a0<\/a>Ruskou radu pro mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed z\u00e1le\u017eitosti, z\u0159\u00edzenou prezidentsk\u00fdm dekretem Putina a financovanou Ruskem. Jako profesor politiky a diplomacie vyu\u010doval na \u0159ad\u011b nejlep\u0161\u00edch z\u00e1padn\u00edch univerzit \u2013\u00a0t\u0159eba Berkely v Kalifornii<\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Andrej Kortunov, v\u00fdznamn\u00fd rusk\u00fd akademik p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bl dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b. Kortunov je na z\u00e1padn\u00edm sank\u010dn\u00edm seznamu.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

(1) Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 situace<\/span><\/h3>\n

Rusko v roce 2023 podstatn\u011b nav\u00fd\u0161ilo svoji zbrojn\u00ed produkci, n\u00e1bor dobrovoln\u00edk\u016f na frontu zes\u00edlil a masivn\u00ed raketov\u00e9 \u00fatoky za\u010daly ni\u010dit ukrajinskou infrastrukturu. Vladim\u00edr Putin m\u00e1 tak nyn\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dnou situaci na Ukrajin\u011b pln\u011b pod kontrolou a nebude ustupovat ze sv\u00fdch p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch po\u017eadavk\u016f. T\u00edm sp\u00ed\u0161, \u017ee Rusko nyn\u00ed dr\u017e\u00ed strategickou iniciativu a Ukrajinci ustupuj\u00ed na cel\u00e9 front\u011b.<\/p>\n

Volodymyr Zelenskyj nevyvodil z ne\u00fasp\u011bchu sv\u00e9 letn\u00ed ofenz\u00edvy 2023 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 d\u016fsledky, a st\u00e1le po\u017eaduje kapitulaci Ruska. Z\u00e1pad loni dodal kyjevsk\u00e9mu re\u017eimu sofistikovan\u00e9 zbran\u011b, rakety dalek\u00e9ho dosahu, i sv\u00e9 nejmodern\u011bj\u0161\u00ed tanky, a o\u010dek\u00e1val, \u017ee Ukrajina p\u0159enese v\u00e1lku hloub\u011bji do rusk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed a zp\u016fsob\u00ed rusk\u00e9 arm\u00e1d\u011b zni\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty. C\u00edlem t\u00e9to strategie bylo demoralizovat rusk\u00e9 obyvatelstvo, a obr\u00e1tit ho proti Putinovi. Opak se stal pravdou, a Vladim\u00edr Putin m\u00e1 letos nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed podporu rusk\u00fdch ob\u010dan\u016f v historii. Pokud v Rusku n\u011bjak\u00e1 kritika vl\u00e1dy existuje, je vedena pouze rusk\u00fdmi militantn\u00edmi jest\u0159\u00e1by, pro kter\u00e9 je Putin p\u0159\u00edli\u0161n\u00e1 m\u00edrov\u00e1 holubice.<\/p>\n

(2) Budouc\u00ed v\u00fdvoj \u2013 Je u\u017e vid\u011bt sv\u011btlo na konci tunelu?<\/span><\/h3>\n

Jedny anal\u00fdzy tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee v\u00e1lku na Ukrajin\u011b rychle rozhodnou podzimn\u00ed americk\u00e9 volby, obzvl\u00e1\u0161\u0165 jestli Trump poraz\u00ed Bidena. Jin\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politika USA je v z\u00e1sad\u011b spole\u010dn\u00e1 pro p\u0159edstavitele republik\u00e1n\u016f i demokrat\u016f, (bipartisan nature). Proto\u017ee Washington Deep State si nem\u016f\u017ee v \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b dovolit v\u00e1lku na Ukrajin\u011b prohr\u00e1t, je tak jedno, zda sed\u00ed v B\u00edl\u00e9m dom\u011b Republik\u00e1n, \u010di Demokrat. Dal\u0161\u00ed anal\u00fdzy tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee v\u00e1lku ukon\u010d\u00ed mocensk\u00e1 zm\u011bna v Kyjev\u011b, a jin\u00e9 mo\u017enost nahrazen\u00ed Zelensk\u00e9ho t\u0159eba gener\u00e1lem Zalu\u017en\u00fdm pop\u00edraj\u00ed. V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b se zd\u00e1, \u017ee v\u00e1lka bude je\u0161t\u011b dlouho pokra\u010dovat a p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161et utrp\u011bn\u00ed jak Ukrajinc\u016fm, tak Rus\u016fm, tak Evropan\u016fm i dal\u0161\u00edm n\u00e1rod\u016fm.<\/p>\n

Ka\u017ed\u00fd, kdo m\u00e1 otev\u0159en\u00e9 o\u010di vid\u00ed, \u017ee v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b rozmetala st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d a velmoci se nejsou schopny na ni\u010dem domluvit. V\u0161echny domluvy o kontrole zbrojen\u00ed, o jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00edch, mezi USA a Ruskem jsou zni\u010deny, a potrv\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed, ne\u017e vzejde nov\u00e1 d\u016fv\u011bra k odzbrojov\u00e1n\u00ed. D\u016fsledkem krachu d\u016fv\u011bry mezi Ruskem a USA je potom selh\u00e1n\u00ed politiky ne\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed. Nikdo dnes d\u00edky krachu d\u016fv\u011bry, mezi USA a EU na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b a Ruskem a \u010c\u00ednou na stran\u011b druh\u00e9, nebr\u00e1n\u00ed jadern\u00e9mu vyzbrojov\u00e1n\u00ed Ir\u00e1nu i Severn\u00ed Koreje. Obdobn\u011b US politika zadr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010c\u00edny hroz\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edm zni\u010duj\u00edc\u00edm rozpadem sv\u011btov\u00fdch logistick\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u016f, ekonomick\u00fdmi i obchodn\u00edmi v\u00e1lkami, a zav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00edm dal\u0161\u00edch a dal\u0161\u00edch sankc\u00ed. V\u0161echny tyto ne\u0161\u0165astn\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed potravinov\u00e9 a energetick\u00e9 krize, vyvol\u00e1vaj\u00ed masov\u00e9 imigra\u010dn\u00ed vlny, brzd\u00ed modernizaci sv\u011btov\u00e9 ekonomiky, ni\u010d\u00ed zejm\u00e9na jej\u00ed ekologickou agendu, a prosp\u00edvaj\u00ed terorist\u016fm v\u0161eho druhu.<\/p>\n

Lidstvo v posledn\u00edch letech \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b p\u0159e\u017eilo celou \u0159adu velk\u00fdch kriz\u00ed, rozpad SSSR-1991, \u00fatok 9\/11 na USA, americkou hypot\u00e9\u010dn\u00ed krizi 2007, ale je ot\u00e1zka, jak bude p\u0159ekon\u00e1na sou\u010dasn\u00e1 krize, kter\u00e1 se \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed z Evropy, proto\u017ee p\u0159i minul\u00fdch kriz\u00edch se velmoci domluvily, a spole\u010dn\u011b se sna\u017eily krizi rychle vy\u0159e\u0161it. Dnes je situace opa\u010dn\u00e1 a velmoci se sna\u017e\u00ed krizi vy\u0159e\u0161it jedna na \u00fakor druh\u00e9. Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 geopolitick\u00e1 situace tak hroz\u00ed, \u017ee nyn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed krize skon\u010d\u00ed jako hra bez v\u00edt\u011bze. (Zero zero game.) Nebo sp\u00ed\u0161 jako hra, v n\u00ed\u017e prohraj\u00ed v\u0161ichni jej\u00ed akt\u00e9\u0159i. (Negative sum game). Nyn\u00ed prakticky na geostrategick\u00e9 \u00farovni nelze dos\u00e1hnout \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9ho oboustrann\u011b p\u0159ijateln\u00e9ho kompromisu.<\/p>\n

(3) Z\u00e1v\u011br \u2013 Jak se v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b vyvine?\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n

V lidsk\u00fdch d\u011bjin\u00e1ch v\u0161echny z\u00e1sadn\u00ed geostrategick\u00e9 zm\u011bny vze\u0161ly z ni\u010div\u00fdch v\u00e1lek mezi hlavn\u00edmi mocnostmi. Nov\u00e1 uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u011bta se tak zrodila ze t\u0159icetilet\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, z napoleonsk\u00fdch v\u00e1lek, a z druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. V\u00fdsledky t\u011bchto konflikt\u016f v\u017edy vytvo\u0159ily novou balanci s\u00edly mezi mocnostmi a umo\u017enily v\u00edt\u011bzn\u00fdm mocnostem stanovit v p\u0159ijateln\u00e9 m\u00ed\u0159e pora\u017een\u00fdm mocnostem nov\u00e1 pravidla sv\u011btov\u00e9ho \u0159\u00e1du a na\u0159\u00eddit jejich pln\u011bn\u00ed v\u0161em ostatn\u00edm zem\u00edm.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Co platilo po cel\u00e1 stalet\u00ed, ve . stolet\u00ed u\u017e neplat\u00ed. Velmoci u\u017e nyn\u00ed nemohou v\u00e9st mezi sebou klasick\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, proto\u017ee by se v nich navz\u00e1jem \u00fapln\u011b zni\u010dily. M\u00edsto toho nyn\u00ed vedou z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, typicky : z\u00e1pad dnes plat\u00ed Ukrajin\u011b v\u0161echny n\u00e1klady na veden\u00ed v\u00e1lky s Ruskem. Nebo vedou ekonomick\u00e9 a technologick\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, jako je ta, kterou zah\u00e1jily USA proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b. Tyto nov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky velmoc\u00ed ov\u0161em mohou trvat cel\u00e1 desetilet\u00ed, ne\u017e ur\u010d\u00ed jejich v\u00edt\u011bze. Nov\u00e9 geostrategick\u00e9 rozd\u011blen\u00ed sv\u011bta i nov\u00e1 balance s\u00edly v Evrop\u011b i Asii mezi jednotliv\u00fdmi velmocemi tak budou dosa\u017eeny a\u017e za dlouh\u00fd \u010das, bude se o n\u011b zu\u0159iv\u011b bojovat, a nen\u00ed jist\u00e9, kdo nakonec bude v\u00edt\u011bzem a pora\u017een\u00fdm.<\/p>\n

Pokud lidstvo neztratilo sv\u016fj instinkt sebez\u00e1chovy, budou se muset d\u0159\u00edve \u010di pozd\u011bji objevit: Nov\u00fd sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d a Nov\u00e1 glob\u00e1ln\u00ed forma \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed sv\u011bta. Tento Nov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d v\u0161ak u\u017e nejsp\u00ed\u0161 nevznikne n\u011bjak\u00fdm nov\u00fdm ujedn\u00e1n\u00edm v duchu \u201cBig Deal of Grand Bargain\u201d (Dohoda mezi nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edmi d\u00e1rci humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed pomoci o jej\u00edm spravedliv\u00e9m rozd\u011blov\u00e1n\u00ed z roku 2022<\/a>), kdy jen n\u011bkolik m\u00e1lo nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch hr\u00e1\u010d\u016f sv\u011bta nadiktuje jeho zbytku z\u00e1vazn\u00e1 pravidla. Ale bude muset b\u00fdt vyjedn\u00e1n v \u0159ad\u011b d\u00edl\u010d\u00edch dohod mezi \u0159adou jednotliv\u00fdch vl\u00e1d a organizac\u00ed sv\u011bta, podle princip\u016f jak mezi sebou jednaj\u00ed \u010dlenov\u00e9 organizace BRICS, SCO \u2013\u00a0\u0160anghajsk\u00e1 organizace pro spolupr\u00e1ci<\/a>, nebo jak se nyn\u00ed vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1 o zachov\u00e1n\u00ed WTO, o regulaci AI, \u010di o demokratizaci glob\u00e1ln\u00edho finan\u010dn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A\u010dkoli to Kortunov do sv\u00e9ho textu p\u0159\u00edmo nenapsal, jednozna\u010dn\u011b z n\u011bj vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee hlavn\u00edm c\u00edlem Putinovy v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b je vytvo\u0159it nov\u00fd multilater\u00e1ln\u00ed (mnohostrann\u00fd) sv\u011bt. Tedy defacto sesadit USA z pozice sv\u011btov\u00e9ho hegemona. Podle teorie Th\u00fakydidovy pasti, tak\u0159ka ka\u017ed\u00fd Hegemon sv\u011bta v cel\u00e9 lidsk\u00e9 historii na jak\u00fdkoli by\u0165 m\u00edrov\u00fd pokus b\u00fdt nahrazen ve sv\u00e9 pozici, zareagoval okam\u017eit\u00fdm vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm v\u00e1lky potenci\u00e1ln\u00edmu n\u00e1stupci.\u00a0 (Podrobn\u011b v\u00a0 MAP 1528<\/a>)<\/p>\n

Pokud V\u00e1s podstatn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st p\u0159edpov\u011bdi Akademika Kortunova zaujala, dejte mi v\u011bd\u011bt na mail kpv0249@gmail.com. Kdy\u017e se sejde v\u00edc \u017e\u00e1dost\u00ed, p\u0159iprav\u00edme pro srovn\u00e1n\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b analytick\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u011bdi dal\u0161\u00edch akademik\u016f, profesor\u016f a diplomat\u016f z Ukrajiny, Indie, EU a USA.<\/p>\n

Michael Svato\u0161<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

P\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f prvn\u00ed \u2013 Andrej Kortunov \u2013 Putin\u016fv Akademik a Diplomat na sank\u010dn\u00edm seznamu Z\u00e1padu. Andrej…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":40786,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,26,2009],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53270"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=53270"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53270\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/40786"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=53270"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=53270"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=53270"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}