{"id":51735,"date":"2024-04-17T00:41:32","date_gmt":"2024-04-16T22:41:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=51735"},"modified":"2024-04-16T20:58:00","modified_gmt":"2024-04-16T18:58:00","slug":"agresivita-proti-cine-stane-se-marcos-filipincem-zelenskym","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/04\/17\/agresivita-proti-cine-stane-se-marcos-filipincem-zelenskym\/","title":{"rendered":"Agresivita proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b: Stane se Marcos Filip\u00edncem Zelensk\u00fdm?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><strong>Filip\u00ednsk\u00fd prezident Ferdinand \u201eBongbong\u201c Marcos Jr. se zjevn\u011b chce postavit \u010c\u00edn\u011b. M\u011bly by nyn\u00ed Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty bojovat do posledn\u00edho Filip\u00ednce proti \u0158\u00ed\u0161i st\u0159edu? Ale st\u011b\u017e\u00ed budou dod\u00e1vky zbran\u00ed jako ty pro Ukrajinu, proto\u017ee americk\u00e9 sklady zbran\u00ed a munice byly vypr\u00e1zdn\u011bny.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Zat\u00edmco pon\u011bkud nemotorn\u00fd Rodrigo Rua Duterte se b\u011bhem sv\u00e9ho funk\u010dn\u00edho obdob\u00ed sna\u017eil dos\u00e1hnout kompromisu s velmocemi USA a \u010c\u00ednou, jeho n\u00e1stupce Ferdinand \u201eBongbong\u201c Marcos Jr. je zcela jasn\u011b na stran\u011b Washingtonu. Spor o n\u00e1roky v Jiho\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9m mo\u0159i (na Filip\u00edn\u00e1ch naz\u00fdvan\u00e9 \u201eZ\u00e1padn\u00ed Filip\u00ednsk\u00e9 mo\u0159e\u201c) je nyn\u00ed op\u011bt o n\u011bco drsn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. V oblasti n\u00e1rokovan\u00e9 n\u011bkolika sousedn\u00edmi st\u00e1ty doch\u00e1z\u00ed znovu a znovu k n\u00e1siln\u00fdm st\u0159et\u016fm.\u00a0<strong>Marcos douf\u00e1 v podporu Ameri\u010dan\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed \u2013 p\u0159esto\u017ee neratifikovali \u00damluvu OSN o mo\u0159sk\u00e9m pr\u00e1vu (UNCLOS) \u2013 nad\u00e1le vyz\u00fdvaj\u00ed Peking, aby se \u0159\u00eddil arbitr\u00e1\u017en\u00edm rozhodnut\u00edm o tamn\u00edch \u00fazemn\u00edch n\u00e1roc\u00edch.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u201eMysl\u00edm, \u017ee ministr obrany USA [Lloyd] Austin to velmi dob\u0159e vysv\u011btlil, \u017ee kdy\u017e je voj\u00e1k, filip\u00ednsk\u00fd voj\u00e1k, zabit \u00fatokem ciz\u00ed mocnosti, pak je \u010das uplatnit smlouvu o vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 obran\u011b,\u201c\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/mb.com.ph\/2024\/4\/15\/us-military-to-step-in-if-filipino-is-killed-in-attack-in-west-philippine-sea-marcos\">\u0159ekl Marcos.<\/a>\u00a0na 50. v\u00fdro\u010d\u00ed prezidentsk\u00e9ho f\u00f3ra Asociace zahrani\u010dn\u00edho tisku Filip\u00edn. &#8222;Dokud skute\u010dn\u011b zp\u016fsobili ztr\u00e1ty a zabili voj\u00e1ka&#8230; Bez ohledu na to, jak se jmenuj\u00ed, a\u0165 u\u017e jsou to obchodn\u00edci, n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed p\u011bchota nebo pob\u0159e\u017en\u00ed str\u00e1\u017e nebo skute\u010dn\u00e9 \u0161ed\u00e9 lod\u011b nebo n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed jednotky, na tom nez\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed.&#8220;\u00a0<strong>Toto je \u00fatok ciz\u00ed mocnosti na Filip\u00edny,\u201c<\/strong> dodal.<\/p>\n<p>Probl\u00e9m je v tom, \u017ee\u00a0<strong>pokud by byly Filip\u00edny zata\u017eeny do vojensk\u00e9ho konfliktu s \u010c\u00ednou (podle pokyn\u016f Washingtonu), mohlo by se to rozvinout ve sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asie na Ukrajin\u011b.<\/strong>\u00a0Jen s jedn\u00edm velk\u00fdm rozd\u00edlem: Na rozd\u00edl od Ukrajiny, kter\u00e1 ji\u017e m\u011bla pom\u011brn\u011b dob\u0159e vybavenou arm\u00e1du, je filip\u00ednsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da prim\u00e1rn\u011b ur\u010dena k boji proti dom\u00e1c\u00edm povstalc\u016fm (jako je komunistick\u00e1 teroristick\u00e1 skupina NPA a r\u016fzn\u00e9 muslimsk\u00e9 milice). Nen\u00ed zde \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo, kter\u00e9 by st\u00e1lo za zm\u00ednku, ani funguj\u00edc\u00ed letectvo \u010di dokonce adekv\u00e1tn\u00ed obrana vzdu\u0161n\u00e9ho prostoru. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b eskalace by \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u00e9 pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b potopili n\u011bkolik filip\u00ednsk\u00fdch v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch lod\u00ed a pokud by zas\u00e1hli, srovnali by tak\u00e9 americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny v zemi.\u00a0<strong>Po p\u00e1r dnech by Filip\u00edny pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b musely kapitulovat a Washington by p\u0159i\u0161el o d\u016fle\u017eitou strategickou z\u00e1kladnu v regionu.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b (\u00cdr\u00e1n a Izrael) v sou\u010dasnosti eskaluje nap\u011bt\u00ed a v\u00e1zne tam americk\u00e9 n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo, chyb\u00ed Ameri\u010dan\u016fm v regionu i vojensk\u00e9 kapacity.\u00a0<strong>Peking shrom\u00e1\u017edil n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo lidov\u011b osvobozeneck\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy relativn\u011b koncentrovan\u00e9 ve vlastn\u00edch vod\u00e1ch, tak\u017ee tamn\u00ed americk\u00e9 s\u00edly nemohly nic d\u011blat ani s podporou Japonska, Ji\u017en\u00ed Koreje, Austr\u00e1lie a Nov\u00e9ho Z\u00e9landu (o mnoho skute\u010dn\u00fdch spojenc\u016f tam nen\u00ed) .<\/strong> Ka\u017edop\u00e1dn\u011b riskovat otev\u0159enou v\u00e1lku a \u2013 podobn\u011b jako v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Ukrajiny proti Rusku \u2013 bojovat za Ameri\u010dany a\u017e do posledn\u00edho Filip\u00ednce proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b, se nezd\u00e1 b\u00fdt dobr\u00fd n\u00e1pad.<\/p>\n<p>Pokud by se Marcos cht\u011bl ztv\u00e1rnit jako Filip\u00ednec Zelenskyj, vybral by si tu nejhor\u0161\u00ed mo\u017enou dobu. Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 nebudou schopni zemi \u00fa\u010dinn\u011b vojensky podporovat. O dod\u00e1vk\u00e1ch zbran\u00ed a st\u0159eliva ani nemluv\u011b, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b kdy\u017e se americk\u00e9 z\u00e1soby d\u00edky v\u00e1lce na Ukrajin\u011b zna\u010dn\u011b vy\u010derpaly. A nejsou v\u016fbec \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 pen\u00edze. Pro\u010d tedy riskovat ozbrojen\u00fd konflikt nebo dokonce v\u00e1lku, kterou nelze vyhr\u00e1t?<\/p>\n<p><em>Koment\u00e1\u0159 Heinze Steinera<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Filip\u00ednsk\u00fd prezident Ferdinand \u201eBongbong\u201c Marcos Jr. se zjevn\u011b chce postavit \u010c\u00edn\u011b. M\u011bly by nyn\u00ed Spojen\u00e9&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":51736,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[30,3986,220,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51735"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51735"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51735\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":51737,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51735\/revisions\/51737"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/51736"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51735"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51735"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51735"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}