{"id":51629,"date":"2024-04-15T00:39:54","date_gmt":"2024-04-14T22:39:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=51629"},"modified":"2024-04-14T17:51:36","modified_gmt":"2024-04-14T15:51:36","slug":"zbynek-fiala-neudrzitelne-zadluzeni-usa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/04\/15\/zbynek-fiala-neudrzitelne-zadluzeni-usa\/","title":{"rendered":"Zbyn\u011bk Fiala: Neudr\u017eiteln\u00e9 zadlu\u017een\u00ed USA"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Modelov\u00e9 simulace, kter\u00e9 provedl Bloomberg Economics, ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluh Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, kter\u00fd u\u017e je na \u00farovni ro\u010dn\u00edho HDP, st\u00e1le poroste.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed progn\u00f3zy Rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9ho \u00fa\u0159adu Kongresu CBO opakuj\u00ed ji\u017e mnohokr\u00e1t vysloven\u00e9 varov\u00e1n\u00ed: Trajektorie zadlu\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed vl\u00e1dy USA je neudr\u017eiteln\u00e1. Washington, kter\u00fd se soust\u0159ed\u00ed na leto\u0161n\u00ed volby, nen\u00ed jen neochotn\u00fd jednat, ale tento probl\u00e9m zcela ignoruje, varuje redak\u010dn\u00ed \u00favodn\u00edk agentury Bloomberg.<\/p>\n

Je to p\u0159itom je\u0161t\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed. Bloomberg nab\u00edz\u00ed \u010d\u00edsla, kter\u00e1 p\u0159ekra\u010duj\u00ed pohled kongresov\u00e9 instituce, \u00fadajn\u011b p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 optimistick\u00e9. CBO vych\u00e1z\u00ed z\u00a0p\u0159edstavy, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00e1 st\u00e1tn\u00ed zadlu\u017eenost Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f bl\u00edzk\u00e1 jejich jednomu ro\u010dn\u00edmu HDP, tedy 25 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f, se dostane roku 2034 na 116 procent HDP, nejv\u00fd\u0161 od konce 2. sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.<\/p>\n

To v\u0161ak nepo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s\u00a0n\u00e1stupem Donalda Trumpa do funkce prezidenta, kter\u00fd zachov\u00e1 sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed dan\u00ed zaveden\u00e9 jeho administrativou roku 2017. Platnost tohoto sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed by jinak skon\u010dila v\u00a0p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce. O\u010dek\u00e1valo se tak\u00e9, \u017ee obrovsk\u00e9 americk\u00e9 zbrojn\u00ed n\u00e1klady ke konci p\u0159edpov\u00eddan\u00e9ho obdob\u00ed relativn\u011b poklesnou, to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee se sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed jejich pod\u00edl na HDP. Jen\u017ee mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed roste. Redak\u010dn\u00ed \u00favodn\u00edk agentury Bloomberg potvrzuje varov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ed fisk\u00e1ln\u00edm kolapsem Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f a vyz\u00fdv\u00e1 politiky, a\u0165 s\u00a0t\u00edm n\u011bco ud\u011blaj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/opinion\/articles\/2024-04-11\/us-public-debt-points-to-eventual-fiscal-breakdown<\/a><\/p>\n

Uveden\u00e9 varov\u00e1n\u00ed se net\u00fdk\u00e1 rizika, \u017ee Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty nebudou m\u00edt pokrytu \u010d\u00e1st provozu feder\u00e1ln\u00edch instituc\u00ed v\u016fbec \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm rozpo\u010dtem, proto\u017ee kongresov\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed na toto t\u00e9ma postupuj\u00ed v p\u0159\u00edskoc\u00edch na posledn\u00ed chv\u00edli a \u0159e\u0161\u00ed jen n\u011bkolik p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f. V\u00e1zne tak\u00e9 vojensk\u00e1 pomoc Ukrajin\u011b ve v\u00fd\u0161i 60 miliard dolar\u016f, ale to je \u010dtvrtina jednoho procenta HDP, pod \u00farovn\u00ed statistick\u00e9 chyby.<\/p>\n

D\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed jsou celkov\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla o hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9m r\u016fstu a obchodn\u00ed v\u00fdm\u011bn\u011b, dan\u011b, \u00faroky, kurz dolaru, celkov\u00e9 rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 v\u00fddaje. P\u0159edpov\u011bdi v\u0161ech t\u011bchto veli\u010din jsou t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 (zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b jde-li o budoucnost, jak kdysi n\u011bkdo vtipn\u011b poznamenal). M\u016f\u017eeme t\u0159eba upozornit na rozpad globalizace, kde si USA nedok\u00e1\u017eou poradit s\u00a0r\u016fstem technologick\u00e9 \u00farovn\u011b \u010c\u00edny, nebo na dedolarizaci, kter\u00e1 nab\u00edr\u00e1 tempo nejen v\u00a0Asii a v\u00a0obchodech s Ruskem, ale i na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b a v\u00a0Latinsk\u00e9 Americe.<\/p>\n

Sv\u011bt se rozd\u011bluje, ale jinak, ne\u017e by si USA p\u0159\u00e1ly \u2013 na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b je 40 spojenc\u016f a na druh\u00e9 dv\u011b stovky zem\u00ed sv\u011bta, kter\u00e9 nesd\u00edlej\u00ed americkou snahu izolovat Rusko. Obt\u00ed\u017en\u011b p\u0159edpov\u011bditeln\u00e9 jsou ceny energi\u00ed, proto\u017ee s\u00edl\u00ed snaha USA i EU celn\u011b omezit dovozy \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch sol\u00e1rn\u00edch panel\u016f a elektrick\u00fdch aut, zat\u00edmco v\u00fdvoj v\u00a0oblasti Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu nahr\u00e1v\u00e1 vyhl\u00eddce ropn\u00e9 krize. Nev\u00edme, co s\u00a0n\u00e1mi ud\u011bl\u00e1 klima, jeho\u017e v\u00fdkyvy jsou st\u00e1le divo\u010dej\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Proto ekonomick\u00fd \u00fatvar agentury \u2013 Bloomberg Economics \u2013 provedl simulaci milionu nejr\u016fzn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch kombinac\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho v\u00fdvoje s\u00a0prom\u011bnami obt\u00ed\u017en\u011b p\u0159edpov\u011bditeln\u00fdch prvk\u016f makroekonomick\u00e9 hry (stochastick\u00e1 simulace<\/em>). V\u00fdsledek? V\u00a090 procentech p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f pod\u00edl dluhu na HDP b\u011bhem p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed dek\u00e1dy poroste, co\u017e je neudr\u017eiteln\u00e9. Nejhor\u0161\u00edch 5 % p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f m\u00ed\u0159\u00ed k zadlu\u017eenosti roku 2034 nad 139 % HDP s\u00a0tendenc\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edho r\u016fstu. S\u00a0t\u00edmhle se prost\u011b mus\u00ed politici poprat, jinak to \u0161patn\u011b dopadne.<\/p>\n

Bidenova administrativa slibuje zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed dan\u00ed pro korporace a nejbohat\u0161\u00ed skupinu da\u0148ov\u00fdch poplatn\u00edk\u016f. Te\u010f v\u0161ak nem\u00e1 s\u00edlu na men\u0161\u00ed v\u011bci a roste pochybnost, jak dlouho tady bude. P\u0159edstih Donalda Trumpa ve volebn\u00edch preferenc\u00edch se v\u00a0posledn\u00edm obdob\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017eil, znovu je to o fous.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0pond\u011bl\u00ed jde Trump p\u0159ed soud kv\u016fli n\u00e1kladn\u00e9mu uti\u0161en\u00ed pornohv\u011bzdy Storm Daniels. S\u00a0tou m\u011bl cosi m\u00edt roku 2006 (on to pop\u00edr\u00e1), ale roku 2016 se to m\u011blo vyt\u00e1hnout, aby mu to rozvr\u00e1tilo volebn\u00ed kampa\u0148. Vyt\u00e1hl tedy zklid\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed prachy. S\u00e1hl v\u0161ak p\u0159itom do volebn\u00edho fondu a poru\u0161il z\u00e1kon dokonce v\u00a0trestn\u00ed v\u011bci. P\u0159edstupuje tak p\u0159ed trestn\u00ed sen\u00e1t jako prvn\u00ed b\u00fdval\u00fd prezident v\u00a0cel\u00e9 americk\u00e9 historii.<\/p>\n

Trump ozna\u010duje p\u0159\u00edpad za politick\u00fd, podobn\u011b jako civiln\u00ed p\u0159i o \u00fadajn\u00e9m nadhodnocov\u00e1n\u00ed majetku Trump Organisation pro pot\u0159eby jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0bankami. Te\u010f m\u00e1 zaplatit kauci p\u016fl miliardy dolar\u016f, aby se v\u016fbec mohl odvolat k\u00a0samosoudci! To je pomalu spravedlnost jak na frontov\u00e9 linii, kde m\u00e1 vojensk\u00fd soud \u2013 jak napsal Karel Havl\u00ed\u010dek Borovsk\u00fd \u2013\u00a0v\u0161echny paragrafy v\u00a0jedn\u00e9 patronta\u0161i<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Soudy zat\u00edm Trumpovi u voli\u010d\u016f v\u017edycky pomohly, tak\u017ee jeho n\u00e1stup do funkce je sn\u00e1ze p\u0159edpov\u011bditeln\u00e1 veli\u010dina ne\u017e jin\u00e9. Ale ve fisk\u00e1ln\u00edch z\u00e1le\u017eitostech v\u00edc z\u00e1vis\u00ed na Kongresu ne\u017e na prezidentech. V\u00a0ka\u017ed\u00e9m st\u00e1t\u011b unie dopadnou volby trochu jinak a mohou tak vznikat zcela jin\u00e9 koalice ne\u017e kolem prezidenta a okoln\u00ed washingtonsk\u00e9 ba\u017ein\u011b.<\/p>\n

Od Trumpa se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee zachov\u00e1 sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed dan\u00ed, ale jeho Republik\u00e1ni te\u010f po\u017eaduj\u00ed tak\u00e9 sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed v\u00fddaj\u016f. Kdy\u017e se povede oboj\u00ed, t\u0159eba to n\u011bjak p\u016fjde. Pokud jde o \u00faspory, m\u00e1 to v\u0161ak b\u00fdt z\u00e1\u0159ez do krve. Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed nemandatorn\u00ed v\u00fddaje by m\u011bly z\u016fstat pod 1,5 bilionem dolar\u016f, tedy na 6 procentech HDP a jejich p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed r\u016fst nesm\u00ed p\u0159es\u00e1hnout inflaci. To m\u00ed\u0159\u00ed na v\u00fddaje na obranu, \u0161kolstv\u00ed, zdravotnick\u00fd v\u00fdzkum nebo na resort spravedlnosti.<\/p>\n

Zru\u0161ily by se nevy\u010derpan\u00e9 rezervy z\u00a0covidov\u00e9ho fondu, ale taky pl\u00e1novan\u00e9 nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed prost\u0159edk\u016f pro finan\u010dn\u00ed \u00fa\u0159ady, tedy zlep\u0161en\u00ed da\u0148ov\u00e9ho v\u00fdb\u011bru. Podstatn\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u00fasporu by p\u0159ineslo zru\u0161en\u00ed Bidenova z\u00e1kona o sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed studentsk\u00e9ho dluhu, kde to d\u011bl\u00e1 p\u016fl bilionu dolar\u016f za deset let. A dal\u0161\u00edch p\u016fl bilionu m\u00e1 vyn\u00e9st zru\u0161en\u00ed da\u0148ov\u00fdch \u00falev pro \u010distou energii. \u0160et\u0159ilo by se i na soci\u00e1ln\u00ed pomoci d\u016frazn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm vy\u017eadov\u00e1n\u00edm hled\u00e1n\u00ed pr\u00e1ce.<\/p>\n

Jak je vid\u011bt, rozpo\u010det Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f stoj\u00ed p\u0159ed splet\u00ed klikat\u00fdch stezek, o kter\u00fdch nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, kam vedou. Jasn\u00e9 je to jen politicky \u2013 kdy\u017e Biden k\u00fdvne, d\u00e1v\u00e1 hlavu na \u0161palek. T\u0159eba je\u0161t\u011b n\u011bco vymysl\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Nap\u0159\u00edklad, kdyby zastavil v\u00e1lku na Ukrajin\u011b, kterou by Trump ukon\u010dil, jak \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u201eza 24 hodin\u201c \u2026 Rozpo\u010dtu mo\u017en\u00e1 pom\u016f\u017ee jen nepatrn\u011b, ale lidstvu obrovsky. A mo\u017en\u00e1 i ta perspektiva USA by najednou vypadala trochu jinak.<\/p>\n

Zbyn\u011bk Fiala<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Modelov\u00e9 simulace, kter\u00e9 provedl Bloomberg Economics, ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluh Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, kter\u00fd u\u017e je…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":22034,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,59,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51629"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51629"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51629\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22034"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51629"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51629"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51629"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}