{"id":51199,"date":"2024-04-06T00:42:47","date_gmt":"2024-04-05T22:42:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=51199"},"modified":"2024-04-05T19:53:25","modified_gmt":"2024-04-05T17:53:25","slug":"jiri-paroubek-ukrajinu-zahalily-cerne-mraky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/04\/06\/jiri-paroubek-ukrajinu-zahalily-cerne-mraky\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek: Ukrajinu zahalily \u010dern\u00e9 mraky…"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Ka\u017ed\u00fd, kdo jen trochu objektivn\u011b uva\u017euje o potenci\u00e1lu Ruska, musel u\u017e na po\u010d\u00e1tku v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b doj\u00edt k n\u00e1zoru, \u017ee Rusko nem\u016f\u017ee tuto lok\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lku prohr\u00e1t.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Na po\u010d\u00e1tku konfliktu na Ukrajin\u011b byly chybn\u00e9 \u00favahy okol\u00ed V. Putina a jeho sam\u00e9ho. Ale tak\u00e9 tak\u00e9 strat\u00e9g\u016f NATO o tom, jak\u00e1 je s\u00edla a potenci\u00e1l obou stran. Tedy Ukrajiny a Z\u00e1padu na stran\u011b jedn\u00e9 a Ruska na stran\u011b druh\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee prorusk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st ukrajinsk\u00fdch elit \u201ez\u00e1sobovala\u201c okol\u00ed V. Putina informacemi o tom, \u017ee vojensk\u00fd z\u00e1sah Ruska na Ukrajin\u011b bude znamenat zhroucen\u00ed vl\u00e1dy prezidenta Zelensk\u00e9ho a jeho rychl\u00fd odchod ze zem\u011b. Tedy st\u00e1tn\u00ed p\u0159evrat a vytvo\u0159en\u00ed nov\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy, kter\u00e1 se bude chovat k\u00a0Rusku jinak. Naopak Z\u00e1pad podce\u0148oval ruskou arm\u00e1du, potenci\u00e1l rusk\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu a cel\u00e9ho rusk\u00e9ho hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed. Vid\u011bl v\u00a0Putinovi a jeho okol\u00ed jen jin\u00e9 vyd\u00e1n\u00ed seniln\u00edch sta\u0159\u00edk\u016f \u0159\u00edd\u00edc\u00edch st\u00e1t v dob\u011b imperi\u00e1ln\u00edho Sov\u011btsk\u00e9ho svazu.<\/p>\n

P\u0159evrat na Ukrajin\u011b se nekonal a Rusov\u00e9 museli zm\u011bnit pl\u00e1ny, nebo\u0165 s\u00a0relativn\u011b malou interven\u010dn\u00ed arm\u00e1dou \u010d\u00edtaj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159ed dv\u011bma lety cca 200 tis\u00edc voj\u00e1k\u016f v\u010detn\u011b logistiky, nem\u011bli \u0161anci Ukrajinu jako celek obsadit. Putinovo veden\u00ed se proto rychle adaptovalo na novou situaci a soust\u0159edilo se na z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b ruskojazy\u010dn\u00fdch oblast\u00ed na v\u00fdchod\u011b a jihu Ukrajiny a na udr\u017een\u00ed Krymu. Naopak Ukrajinci s\u00a0podporou prakticky cel\u00e9ho Z\u00e1padu, a to v\u010detn\u011b mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b vysok\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed podpory jak \u00fav\u011brov\u00e9, tak grantov\u00e9 (de facto se jednalo o dary) state\u010dn\u011b \u010delili sv\u00e9mu protivn\u00edkovi.<\/p>\n

Ke konci \u00fanora leto\u0161n\u00edho roku m\u00e1 Ukrajina st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluh v\u00a0astronomick\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161i 143,7 mld. dolar\u016f, co\u017e p\u0159i moment\u00e1ln\u011b prakticky minim\u00e1ln\u00edch vlastn\u00edch p\u0159\u00edjmech ukrajinsk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu a jejich zkonzumov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00a0de facto v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9m hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed, je re\u00e1ln\u00e1 perspektiva, \u017ee tento dluh bude d\u00e1le navy\u0161ov\u00e1n. Ukrajinsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da chce pochopiteln\u011b od zem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 ji podporuj\u00ed, po\u010d\u00ednaje Evropskou uni\u00ed, aby platby, kter\u00e9 pot\u0159ebuje k\u00a0udr\u017een\u00ed chodu st\u00e1tu v\u010detn\u011b arm\u00e1dy, dost\u00e1vala jako dar. V\u00a0sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b m\u00e1 Ukrajina celkem pochopiteln\u011b probl\u00e9my se spl\u00e1cen\u00edm sv\u00fdch dluh\u016f.<\/p>\n

Pokud jde o potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u00e1rce, tedy zem\u011b Z\u00e1padu a Japonsko \u010di Austr\u00e1lii, nelze o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee budou schopny platit vysok\u00e9 v\u00fddaje Ukrajiny setrvale.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Podobn\u00e9 rozpo\u010dtov\u00e9 probl\u00e9my, jako m\u00e1 moment\u00e1ln\u011b \u010desk\u00fd st\u00e1t, maj\u00ed i jin\u00e9 zem\u011b Z\u00e1padu. Snad s\u00a0n\u011bkolika m\u00e1lo v\u00fdjimkami jako je Lucembursko \u010di Norsko. O finan\u010dn\u00ed str\u00e1nce ukrajinsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky ov\u0161em ps\u00e1t v\u00a0tomto \u010dl\u00e1nku p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 nechci.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0posledn\u00edch dnech se objevily i v\u00a0mainstreamov\u00fdch evropsk\u00fdch a americk\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00edch informace, \u017ee Ukrajin\u011b chyb\u00ed nejen n\u00e1boje pro veden\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch operac\u00ed, ale vlastn\u011b j\u00ed chyb\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed podstatn\u00fd vojensk\u00fd materi\u00e1l. A pokud nyn\u00ed vyhl\u00e1sil prezident Zelensk\u00fd odvody m\u016f\u017eu mlad\u0161\u00edch ne\u017e 27 a\u017e do hranice 25 let, bude to znamenat, \u017ee arm\u00e1da mus\u00ed vybavit mo\u017en\u00e1 200 \u2013 250 tis\u00edc nov\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f. Oble\u010den\u00edm, dal\u0161\u00edm vybaven\u00edm a samoz\u0159ejm\u011b zbran\u011bmi. A to nemluv\u00edm ani o v\u00fdcviku. Situace na 1\u00a0100 km dlouh\u00e9 front\u011b je nyn\u00ed pro ukrajinskou arm\u00e1du z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e1.<\/p>\n

V Politico se objevuj\u00ed informace od nejmenovan\u00fdch ukrajinsk\u00fdch vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch d\u016fstojn\u00edk\u016f o tom, \u017ee dokonce hroz\u00ed zhroucen\u00ed cel\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 fronty. A to dokonce i v\u00a0situaci, \u017ee bude nakonec schv\u00e1lena v\u00a0Kongresu USA finan\u010dn\u00ed podpora pro Ukrajinu ve v\u00fd\u0161i 60 mld. dolar\u016f. Prost\u011b, na Ukrajin\u011b podle obez\u0159etn\u00fdch formulac\u00ed, kter\u00e9 pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed v Politico, m\u016f\u017ee doj\u00edt ke zhroucen\u00ed cel\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 obrany na front\u011b. A dojde-li k\u00a0pr\u016flomu fronty rusk\u00fdmi vojsky na jednom nebo n\u011bkolika m\u00edstech, nedisponuje u\u017e ukrajinsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da n\u011bjakou z\u00e1lo\u017en\u00ed arm\u00e1dou, kter\u00e1 by byla schopna \u00fato\u010dn\u00edky v\u00a0nitru Ukrajiny zastavit. A pak samoz\u0159ejm\u011b hroz\u00ed obsazen\u00ed velk\u00fdch ukrajinsk\u00fdch m\u011bst, na nich\u017e maj\u00ed Rusov\u00e9 prvo\u0159ad\u00fd z\u00e1jem, nebo\u0165 jsou to m\u011bsta s\u00a0v\u011bt\u0161inou ruskojazy\u010dn\u00e9ho obyvatelstva (Charkov a Od\u011bsa).<\/p>\n

Na jednom ze slovensk\u00fdch zpravodajsk\u00fdch kan\u00e1l\u016f jsem vid\u011bl v\u010dera hovo\u0159it b\u00fdval\u00e9ho n\u00e1\u010deln\u00edka gener\u00e1ln\u00edho \u0161t\u00e1bu Arm\u00e1dy \u010cR, \u0160ediv\u00e9ho, kter\u00fd uv\u00e1d\u011bl identick\u00e9 informace jako Politico.<\/p>\n

Ji\u017e p\u0159ed dv\u011bma lety jsem ve sv\u00fdch \u010dl\u00e1nc\u00edch i jin\u00fdch ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch vystoupen\u00edch vyz\u00fdval \u010deskou vl\u00e1du a evropsk\u00e9 elity k\u00a0zah\u00e1jen\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00fdch jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e1 by ukon\u010dila v\u00e1lku na Ukrajin\u011b. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee te\u010f je k\u00a0tomu posledn\u00ed vhodn\u00fd okam\u017eik, kdy Rusov\u00e9 je\u0161t\u011b frontu neprorazili. Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b, pokud bude rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da schopna dal\u0161\u00edch z\u00e1bor\u016f ukrajinsk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed, bude jej\u00ed vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00ed pozice v\u00a0p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch jedn\u00e1n\u00edch o m\u00edru mnohem siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e je tomu dnes.<\/p>\n

Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty v\u010dera \u00fasty ministra zahrani\u010d\u00ed Blinkena vyj\u00e1d\u0159ily neochotu pod\u00edlet se na jak\u00e9koliv intervenci vojsk zem\u00ed Z\u00e1padu na Ukrajin\u011b. Tedy, nehodlaj\u00ed se p\u0159ipojit k\u00a0eventu\u00e1ln\u00ed, pon\u011bkud dobrodru\u017en\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 akci, o n\u00ed\u017e hovo\u0159il jako o mo\u017enosti francouzsk\u00fd prezident Macron.<\/p>\n

M\u00e1 to mo\u017en\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b jeden z\u00e1va\u017en\u00fd d\u016fvod. A t\u00edm je situace v\u00a0Gaze. Situaci na St\u0159edn\u00edm v\u00fdchod\u011b a \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed konfliktu mezi Palestinci (\u00famysln\u011b neuv\u00e1d\u00edm Ham\u00e1sem) a Izraelem, vid\u00ed nyn\u00ed Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty jako svou hlavn\u00ed prioritu. To je pochopiteln\u00e9 s\u00a0ohledem na \u010detnost a vliv \u017eidovsk\u00e9 populace v USA. Krom\u011b toho v\u011bt\u0161ina americk\u00fdch \u017did\u016f v\u017edy ve volb\u00e1ch podporovala kandid\u00e1ty Demokratick\u00e9 strany USA. Tak\u017ee Biden a Blinken nyn\u00ed na\u0161lapuj\u00ed, pokud jde o St\u0159edn\u00ed v\u00fdchod, v\u00a0minov\u00e9m poli. Nemohou se ztoto\u017enit beze zbytku s\u00a0vojenskou akc\u00ed Izraele s\u00a0ohledem na sv\u011btov\u00e9 ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed a z\u00e1rove\u0148 nemohou nechat Izrael padnout. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty nyn\u00ed skl\u00edz\u00ed plody sv\u00e9 ned\u016fsledn\u00e9 politiky v\u016f\u010di Izraeli a Palestinc\u016fm v\u00a0posledn\u00edch 20 a\u017e 30 letech.<\/p>\n

Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ka\u017ed\u00fd, kdo jen trochu objektivn\u011b uva\u017euje o potenci\u00e1lu Ruska, musel u\u017e na po\u010d\u00e1tku v\u00e1lky na…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":28432,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1503,220,39,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51199"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51199"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51199\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28432"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51199"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51199"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51199"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}