{"id":50987,"date":"2024-04-04T00:31:55","date_gmt":"2024-04-03T22:31:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=50987"},"modified":"2024-04-03T15:57:07","modified_gmt":"2024-04-03T13:57:07","slug":"thomas-roper-jak-turecke-mistni-volby-by-mohly-ovlivnit-politiku-turecka","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/04\/04\/thomas-roper-jak-turecke-mistni-volby-by-mohly-ovlivnit-politiku-turecka\/","title":{"rendered":"Thomas R\u00f6per: Jak tureck\u00e9 m\u00edstn\u00ed volby by mohly ovlivnit politiku Turecka"},"content":{"rendered":"
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O v\u00edkendu se v Turecku konaly m\u00edstn\u00ed volby, do \u010dela se poprv\u00e9 po desetilet\u00edch postavila opozi\u010dn\u00ed Republik\u00e1nsk\u00e1 lidov\u00e1 strana a jej\u00ed kandid\u00e1ti. Odborn\u00edci se domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee tato ud\u00e1lost by mohla b\u00fdt p\u0159edzv\u011bst\u00ed konce sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho politick\u00e9ho uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Tureck\u00fd prezident Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan p\u0159ipustil, \u017ee Strana spravedlnosti a rozvoje, kterou vede, nedos\u00e1hla v m\u00edstn\u00edch volb\u00e1ch 31. b\u0159ezna o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fdch v\u00fdsledk\u016f. Navzdory por\u00e1\u017ece prezident ozna\u010dil volby za hodn\u00e9 demokracie:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eDev\u011bt m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f po na\u0161em v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed v [prezidentsk\u00fdch] volb\u00e1ch v kv\u011btnu 2023 jsme bohu\u017eel nedos\u00e1hli po\u017eadovan\u00e9ho a o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9ho v\u00fdsledku v m\u00edstn\u00edch volb\u00e1ch [\u2026] Nebudeme ignorovat rozhodnut\u00ed na\u0161ich lid\u00ed, nebudeme jednat proti jejich v\u016fle a on se pt\u00e1\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

V m\u00edstn\u00edch volb\u00e1ch se vol\u00ed starostov\u00e9 nejlidnat\u011bj\u0161\u00edch a ekonomicky nejvysp\u011blej\u0161\u00edch m\u011bst, kter\u00fdch je v Turecku 30. Por\u00e1\u017eka Erdo\u011fanovy strany byla pro v\u011bt\u0161inu p\u0159ekvapen\u00edm, ale je v\u00fdrazem nespokojenosti obyvatel s ekonomickou situac\u00ed, kterou odborn\u00edci p\u0159ipisuj\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 70procentn\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 krizi, situaci d\u016fchodc\u016f a rostouc\u00edmu po\u010dtu uprchl\u00edk\u016f v zem\u011b. P\u0159esto\u017ee se starostov\u00e9 vol\u00ed v komun\u00e1ln\u00edch volb\u00e1ch, v pop\u0159ed\u00ed st\u00e1la ekonomick\u00e1 t\u00e9mata, a proto je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee voli\u010di potrestali Erdogana a jeho zvl\u00e1dnut\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 krize.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00edm d\u016fvodem por\u00e1\u017eky Erdo\u011fanovy strany je podle odborn\u00edk\u016f n\u00edzk\u00e1 obliba politik\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed kandidovali ve volb\u00e1ch. Opozi\u010dn\u00ed strana nominovala velmi obl\u00edben\u00e9 politiky \u2013 starosty Istanbulu, Ankary a dal\u0161\u00ed. Tureck\u00fd politolog Iqbal D\u00fcrre uvedl, \u017ee Erdo\u011fanova strana a jeho koalice \u010del\u00ed velk\u00e9mu pozdvi\u017een\u00ed:<\/span><\/p>\n

„Pro Erdo\u011fana je to velmi v\u00e1\u017en\u00fd probl\u00e9m, proto\u017ee poprv\u00e9 c\u00edt\u00ed, \u017ee u\u017e nem\u00e1 takovou podporu jako d\u0159\u00edv.“ To by mohlo m\u00edt dopad na jeho koalici s nacionalisty. V\u017edy mu zaru\u010dila v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed a te\u010f u\u017e toto spojenectv\u00ed nefunguje. To p\u0159edstavuje riziko nepokoj\u016f v koalici i v Erdo\u011fanov\u011b stran\u011b. Pro Rusko je zde velmi d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 str\u00e1nka, proto\u017ee existoval projekt druh\u00e9ho Bosporu, kter\u00fd ji\u017e nelze realizovat. To je pro Rusko v\u00fdhodn\u00e9 z hlediska jeho geopolitick\u00fdch z\u00e1jm\u016f.<\/em><\/p>\n

P\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9 prezidentsk\u00e9 volby?<\/span><\/h3>\n

Po Erdo\u011fanov\u011b por\u00e1\u017ece mnoz\u00ed hovo\u0159ili o p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00fdch prezidentsk\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch. Analytici a experti se v\u0161ak domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee se to nepl\u00e1nuje a \u017ee tureck\u00fd prezident m\u00e1 v\u0161echny \u0161ance na politickou pomstu. Tot\u00e9\u017e plat\u00ed pro zakladatele Akademie mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed politiky Ozana Omerc\u0131ho, Erdo\u011fan se podle n\u011bj dostal tvrdou lekci, ale nenech\u00e1 to jen tak:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eLid\u00e9 dali Erdo\u011fanovi tvrdou lekci ve volb\u00e1ch, ale nem\u016f\u017eete \u0159\u00edct, \u017ee je po v\u0161em. Erdo\u011fan je st\u00e1le siln\u00fd. Nyn\u00ed se volaj\u00ed po p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00fdch [parlamentn\u00edch a prezidentsk\u00fdch] volb\u00e1ch, ale \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 nebudou, proto\u017ee ekonomika a bezpe\u010dnost jsou na po\u0159adu dne. Erdo\u011fan byl nav\u00edc teprve loni znovu zvolen a nebude se \u00fa\u010dastnit p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00fdch voleb. Opozice nem\u00e1 dostatek soci\u00e1ln\u00edch zdroj\u016f a m\u00e9di\u00ed, aby probl\u00e9m prosadila. A opozice je se sou\u010dasnou situac\u00ed spokojena.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

Erdogan nem\u00e1 d\u016fvod rok po sv\u00e9m znovuzvolen\u00ed vypisovat p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9 prezidentsk\u00e9 volby, ale ur\u010dit\u011b bude muset zm\u011bnit politiku a je ot\u00e1zka, kde za\u010dne. Proto\u017ee do p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch \u0159\u00e1dn\u00fdch parlamentn\u00edch a prezidentsk\u00fdch voleb zb\u00fdvaj\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b roky, m\u016f\u017ee se Erdoganovi do t\u00e9 doby poda\u0159it zvr\u00e1tit n\u00e1ladu ve sv\u016fj prosp\u011bch.<\/span><\/p>\n

Budoucnost vztah\u016f s Moskvou<\/span><\/h3>\n

Tureck\u00fd politolog Kerim Has v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee por\u00e1\u017eka Erdo\u011fanovy strany povede k oslaben\u00ed a radik\u00e1ln\u00edm zm\u011bn\u00e1m v dom\u00e1c\u00ed i zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politice \u2013 Ankara se stane v\u00edce z\u00e1vislou na Z\u00e1pad\u011b a vztahy s Ruskem by mohly ochladnout:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eJsou to prvn\u00ed volby, kter\u00e9 tureck\u00fd v\u016fdce ve sv\u00e9 politick\u00e9 kari\u00e9\u0159e prohr\u00e1l. V\u0161echna v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed m\u011bsta jsou v rukou opozice, kter\u00e1 bude po\u017eadovat p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9 prezidentsk\u00e9 volby. To povede k ostr\u00e9 politick\u00e9 bitv\u011b. Erdo\u011fanova moc oslabila, co\u017e se projev\u00ed i v zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politice, kurz zem\u011b se stane proz\u00e1padn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm. Z\u00e1vislost prezidenta na Z\u00e1pad\u011b poroste. Turecko se k protirusk\u00fdm sankc\u00edm pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nep\u0159ipoj\u00ed, ale m\u016f\u017ee doj\u00edt k relativn\u00edmu ochlazen\u00ed vztah\u016f s Ruskem.<\/em><\/p>\n

Tento v\u00fdvoj za\u010dal p\u0159ed volbami: Podle zpr\u00e1v z m\u00e9di\u00ed m\u00e1 Turecko pot\u00ed\u017ee s p\u0159ij\u00edm\u00e1n\u00edm p\u0159evod\u016f z Ruska, proto\u017ee tureck\u00e9 banky odm\u00edtaj\u00ed prov\u00e1d\u011bt platby. Tyto probl\u00e9my pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b souvisej\u00ed s roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00edm z\u00e1padn\u00edch sankc\u00ed a obavami, \u017ee by m\u00edstn\u00ed banky mohly spadat pod sekund\u00e1rn\u00ed omezen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro Turecko by se v\u0161ak mohlo uk\u00e1zat jako ekonomick\u00fd bumerang, pokud by tureck\u00e9 banky p\u0159estaly prov\u00e1d\u011bt platby s Ruskem, proto\u017ee ru\u0161t\u00ed turist\u00e9 jsou pro Turecko d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm ekonomick\u00fdm faktorem. Pokud by v Turecku p\u0159estaly fungovat rusk\u00e9 bankovn\u00ed karty, mohlo by to mnoho rusk\u00fdch turist\u016f odradit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Thomas R\u00f6per<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

O v\u00edkendu se v Turecku konaly m\u00edstn\u00ed volby, do \u010dela se poprv\u00e9 po desetilet\u00edch postavila…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":50988,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[29,22,55,27],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50987"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50987"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50987\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50988"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50987"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50987"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50987"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}