{"id":50173,"date":"2024-03-24T05:57:54","date_gmt":"2024-03-24T04:57:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=50173"},"modified":"2024-03-24T05:57:54","modified_gmt":"2024-03-24T04:57:54","slug":"dmitrij-trenin-je-cas-aby-rusko-dalo-zapadu-jadernou-pripominku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/03\/24\/dmitrij-trenin-je-cas-aby-rusko-dalo-zapadu-jadernou-pripominku\/","title":{"rendered":"Dmitrij Trenin: Je \u010das, aby Rusko dalo Z\u00e1padu jadernou p\u0159ipom\u00ednku"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Washington vede z\u00e1stupnou v\u00e1lku ve snaze u\u0161t\u011bd\u0159it Moskv\u011b \u201estrategickou por\u00e1\u017eku\u201c a na to je zapot\u0159eb\u00ed tvrd\u0161\u00ed reakce\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Strategick\u00e1 stabilita je obvykle ch\u00e1p\u00e1na jako absence pob\u00eddek pro jadern\u011b vyzbrojenou mocnost k zah\u00e1jen\u00ed masivn\u00edho prvn\u00edho \u00faderu. Obvykle je nahl\u00ed\u017eeno p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm z vojensko-technick\u00e9ho hlediska. D\u016fvody, pro\u010d lze uva\u017eovat o \u00fatoku, se obvykle neberou v \u00favahu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato my\u0161lenka se objevila v polovin\u011b minul\u00e9ho stolet\u00ed, kdy SSSR dos\u00e1hl vojensko-strategick\u00e9 parity s USA a studen\u00e1 v\u00e1lka mezi nimi vstoupila do\u00a0<\/span>\u201ezral\u00e9\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0f\u00e1ze omezen\u00e9 konfrontace a ur\u010dit\u00e9 p\u0159edv\u00eddatelnosti. \u0158e\u0161en\u00ed probl\u00e9mu strategick\u00e9 stability pak spat\u0159ovalo v neust\u00e1l\u00e9m udr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed kontakt\u016f mezi politick\u00fdm veden\u00edm obou supervelmoc\u00ed. Co\u017e vedlo ke kontrole zbrojen\u00ed a transparentnosti p\u0159i za\u0159izov\u00e1n\u00ed jejich p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00fdch arzen\u00e1l\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prvn\u00ed \u010dtvrtina 21. stolet\u00ed v\u0161ak kon\u010d\u00ed v podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch velmi odli\u0161n\u00fdch od relativn\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u011b politick\u00e9 stability 70. let. Sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d zam\u011b\u0159en\u00fd na USA nastolen\u00fd po skon\u010den\u00ed studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky je v\u00e1\u017en\u011b zpochyb\u0148ov\u00e1n a jeho z\u00e1klady jsou viditeln\u011b ot\u0159eseny. Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed hegemonie Washingtonu a pozice kolektivn\u00edho Z\u00e1padu jako celku sl\u00e1bne, zat\u00edmco ekonomick\u00e1, vojensk\u00e1, v\u011bdeck\u00e1 a technologick\u00e1 s\u00edla a politick\u00fd v\u00fdznam nez\u00e1padn\u00edch zem\u00ed \u2013 p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm \u010c\u00edny, ale i Indie \u2013 roste. To vede ke zhor\u0161en\u00ed vztah\u016f mezi USA a dal\u0161\u00edmi mocensk\u00fdmi centry.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dv\u011b nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed jadern\u00e9 mocnosti, Rusko a USA, jsou ve stavu polop\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho ozbrojen\u00e9ho konfliktu. Tato konfrontace je v Rusku ofici\u00e1ln\u011b pova\u017eov\u00e1na za existen\u010dn\u00ed hrozbu. Tato situace se stala mo\u017enou v d\u016fsledku selh\u00e1n\u00ed strategick\u00e9ho odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed (ve sv\u00e9m geopolitick\u00e9m rozm\u011bru) v oblasti, kde jsou p\u0159\u00edtomny \u017eivotn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy Ruska. Je t\u0159eba poznamenat, \u017ee hlavn\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinou konfliktu je v\u011bdom\u00e9 ignorov\u00e1n\u00ed \u2013 ji\u017e t\u0159i desetilet\u00ed \u2013 ze strany Washingtonu jasn\u011b a explicitn\u011b vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00fdch bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch z\u00e1jm\u016f Moskvy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 a politick\u00e9 veden\u00ed nav\u00edc v ukrajinsk\u00e9m konfliktu nejen vyj\u00e1d\u0159ilo, ale ve\u0159ejn\u011b vyj\u00e1d\u0159ilo posl\u00e1n\u00ed vyu\u017e\u00edt sv\u00e9ho z\u00e1stupce k tomu, aby Rusku zp\u016fsobilo strategickou vojenskou por\u00e1\u017eku navzdory jeho jadern\u00e9mu statusu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jedn\u00e1 se o komplexn\u00ed podnik, ve kter\u00e9m je integrov\u00e1na kolektivn\u00ed ekonomick\u00e1, politick\u00e1, vojensk\u00e1, vojensko-technick\u00e1, zpravodajsk\u00e1 a informa\u010dn\u00ed kapacita Z\u00e1padu s akcemi ukrajinsk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil v p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9m boji proti rusk\u00e9 arm\u00e1d\u011b. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, USA se sna\u017e\u00ed porazit Rusko nejen bez pou\u017eit\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, ale dokonce i bez form\u00e1ln\u00edho zapojen\u00ed do nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch akc\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V tomto kontextu se prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed p\u011bti jadern\u00fdch mocnost\u00ed z 3. ledna 2022, \u017ee\u00a0<\/span>\u201ejadern\u00e1 v\u00e1lka by se nem\u011bla v\u00e9st\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0a \u017ee\u00a0<\/span>\u201enem\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt v\u00edt\u011bz\u016f\u201c,<\/span><\/em>\u00a0jev\u00ed jako poz\u016fstatek minulosti. Z\u00e1stupn\u00e1 v\u00e1lka mezi jadern\u00fdmi mocnostmi ji\u017e prob\u00edh\u00e1; nav\u00edc v pr\u016fb\u011bhu tohoto konfliktu doch\u00e1z\u00ed k odstra\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edch a dal\u0161\u00edch omezen\u00ed, a to jak z hlediska pou\u017eit\u00fdch zbra\u0148ov\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f a \u00fa\u010dasti z\u00e1padn\u00edch vojsk, tak i geografick\u00fdch limit\u016f d\u011bji\u0161t\u011b v\u00e1lky. Je mo\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159edst\u00edrat, \u017ee je udr\u017eov\u00e1na ur\u010dit\u00e1 \u201estrategick\u00e1 stabilita\u201c, ale pouze tehdy, pokud si hr\u00e1\u010d jako USA stanov\u00ed \u00fakol zp\u016fsobit nep\u0159\u00edteli strategickou por\u00e1\u017eku z rukou sv\u00e9ho klientsk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu a o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee nep\u0159\u00edtel se neodv\u00e1\u017e\u00ed pou\u017e\u00edt jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pojem strategick\u00e9 stability ve sv\u00e9 p\u016fvodn\u00ed podob\u011b \u2013 vytv\u00e1\u0159en\u00ed a udr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed vojensko-technick\u00fdch podm\u00ednek k zabr\u00e1n\u011bn\u00ed n\u00e1hl\u00e9mu masivn\u00edmu jadern\u00e9mu \u00faderu \u2013 si tak za sou\u010dasn\u00fdch podm\u00ednek zachov\u00e1v\u00e1 sv\u016fj v\u00fdznam jen \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pos\u00edlen\u00ed jadern\u00e9ho odstra\u0161en\u00ed by mohlo b\u00fdt \u0159e\u0161en\u00edm skute\u010dn\u00e9ho probl\u00e9mu obnoven\u00ed strategick\u00e9 stability, kter\u00e1 byla v\u00e1\u017en\u011b naru\u0161ena prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edm a eskaluj\u00edc\u00edm konfliktem. Pro za\u010d\u00e1tek stoj\u00ed za to p\u0159ehodnotit koncept odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed a v tomto procesu zm\u011bnit jeho n\u00e1zev.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nap\u0159\u00edklad m\u00edsto pasivu bychom m\u011bli mluvit o aktivn\u00ed form\u011b. Protivn\u00edk by nem\u011bl z\u016fst\u00e1vat ve stavu pohodl\u00ed v domn\u011bn\u00ed, \u017ee v\u00e1lka, kterou vede s pomoc\u00ed jin\u00e9 zem\u011b, ho nijak neovlivn\u00ed. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, je nutn\u00e9 vr\u00e1tit strach do mysl\u00ed a srdc\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch v\u016fdc\u016f. Prosp\u011b\u0161n\u00fd druh strachu, stoj\u00ed za to zd\u016fraznit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je t\u0159eba tak\u00e9 uznat, \u017ee limity \u010dist\u011b verb\u00e1ln\u00ed intervence byly v t\u00e9to f\u00e1zi ukrajinsk\u00e9ho konfliktu vy\u010derp\u00e1ny. Komunika\u010dn\u00ed kan\u00e1ly a\u017e na vrchol mus\u00ed z\u016fstat nep\u0159etr\u017eit\u011b otev\u0159en\u00e9, ale nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy v t\u00e9to f\u00e1zi mus\u00ed b\u00fdt odesl\u00e1ny prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm konkr\u00e9tn\u00edch krok\u016f: doktrin\u00e1ln\u00ed zm\u011bny; vojensk\u00e1 cvi\u010den\u00ed k jejich testov\u00e1n\u00ed; podvodn\u00ed a vzdu\u0161n\u00e9 hl\u00eddky pod\u00e9l pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9ho nep\u0159\u00edtele; upozorn\u011bn\u00ed na p\u0159\u00edpravy na jadern\u00e9 testy a testy samotn\u00e9; zaveden\u00ed bezletov\u00fdch z\u00f3n nad \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed \u010cern\u00e9ho mo\u0159e a tak d\u00e1le. Smyslem t\u011bchto akc\u00ed nen\u00ed pouze demonstrovat odhodl\u00e1n\u00ed a p\u0159ipravenost pou\u017e\u00edt dostupn\u00e9 schopnosti k ochran\u011b \u017eivotn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdch z\u00e1jm\u016f Ruska, ale \u2013 a to je nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u2013 zastavit nep\u0159\u00edtele a povzbudit ho k seri\u00f3zn\u00edmu dialogu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Eskalace zde nekon\u010d\u00ed. Po vojensko-technick\u00fdch kroc\u00edch mohou n\u00e1sledovat skute\u010dn\u00e9 \u010diny, na kter\u00e9 ji\u017e bylo d\u00e1no varov\u00e1n\u00ed: nap\u0159\u00edklad \u00fatoky na leteck\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny a z\u00e1sobovac\u00ed centra na \u00fazem\u00ed zem\u00ed NATO a podobn\u011b. Nen\u00ed t\u0159eba j\u00edt d\u00e1l. Mus\u00edme jednodu\u0161e pochopit a pomoci nep\u0159\u00edteli pochopit, \u017ee strategick\u00e1 stabilita ve skute\u010dn\u00e9m, nikoli \u00fazk\u00e9m, technick\u00e9m smyslu slova nen\u00ed slu\u010diteln\u00e1 s ozbrojen\u00fdm konfliktem mezi jadern\u00fdmi mocnostmi, i kdy\u017e (prozat\u00edm) prob\u00edh\u00e1 nep\u0159\u00edmo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee nep\u0159\u00edtel tento stav snadno a okam\u017eit\u011b p\u0159ijme. P\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm si budou muset uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee toto je na\u0161e stanovisko, a vyvodit pat\u0159i\u010dn\u00e9 z\u00e1v\u011bry.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je na \u010dase, abychom za\u010dali revidovat koncep\u010dn\u00ed apar\u00e1t, kter\u00fd pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1me v ot\u00e1zk\u00e1ch bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed strategie. Hovo\u0159\u00edme o mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti, strategick\u00e9 stabilit\u011b, odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed, kontrole zbrojen\u00ed, ne\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed a tak d\u00e1le. Tyto koncepty se objevily v pr\u016fb\u011bhu v\u00fdvoje z\u00e1padn\u00edho \u2013 p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm americk\u00e9ho \u2013 politick\u00e9ho my\u0161len\u00ed a na\u0161ly okam\u017eit\u00e9 praktick\u00e9 uplatn\u011bn\u00ed v zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politice USA. Vych\u00e1zej\u00ed ze st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed reality, ale jsou p\u0159izp\u016fsobeny c\u00edl\u016fm americk\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky. Sna\u017eili jsme se je p\u0159izp\u016fsobit na\u0161im pot\u0159eb\u00e1m, ale se st\u0159\u00eddav\u00fdm \u00fasp\u011bchem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je \u010das pohnout se d\u00e1l a vyvinout vlastn\u00ed koncepty, kter\u00e9 odr\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed postaven\u00ed Ruska ve sv\u011bt\u011b i jeho pot\u0159eby.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dmitrij\u00a0\u00a0Trenin<\/strong>\u00a0, profesor v\u00fdzkumu na Vysok\u00e9 \u0161kole ekonomick\u00e9 a vedouc\u00ed v\u00fdzkumn\u00fd pracovn\u00edk Institutu sv\u011btov\u00e9 ekonomiky a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch vztah\u016f. Je tak\u00e9 \u010dlenem rusk\u00e9 rady pro mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed z\u00e1le\u017eitosti (RIAC).<\/em><\/p>\n

\"Dmitrij<\/a><\/div>\n

Tento \u010dl\u00e1nek byl poprv\u00e9 publikov\u00e1n v\u00a0<\/span>Rusku v Global Affairs<\/span><\/a><\/em>\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Washington vede z\u00e1stupnou v\u00e1lku ve snaze u\u0161t\u011bd\u0159it Moskv\u011b \u201estrategickou por\u00e1\u017eku\u201c a na to je zapot\u0159eb\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":15763,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[122,22,276,37,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50173"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50173"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50173\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/15763"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50173"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50173"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50173"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}