{"id":49906,"date":"2024-03-22T00:32:31","date_gmt":"2024-03-21T23:32:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=49906"},"modified":"2024-03-21T15:45:10","modified_gmt":"2024-03-21T14:45:10","slug":"myanmarsti-rebelove-a-jejich-zahranicni-podporovatele-odmitaji-ctyrbodovy-plan-thajska","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/03\/22\/myanmarsti-rebelove-a-jejich-zahranicni-podporovatele-odmitaji-ctyrbodovy-plan-thajska\/","title":{"rendered":"Myanmar\u0161t\u00ed rebelov\u00e9 a jejich zahrani\u010dn\u00ed podporovatel\u00e9 odm\u00edtaj\u00ed \u010dty\u0159bodov\u00fd pl\u00e1n Thajska"},"content":{"rendered":"
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P\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dili se, \u017ee Tatmadaw m\u016f\u017ee \u010delit strategick\u00e9 por\u00e1\u017ece b\u011bhem mo\u017en\u00e9 nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed ofenz\u00edvy, stejn\u011b jako si Ukrajina a Z\u00e1pad myslely, \u017ee by mohly \u010delit Rusku b\u011bhem lo\u0148sk\u00e9 nakonec ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 protiofenz\u00edvy.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Zahrani\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdbor thajsk\u00e9 Sn\u011bmovny reprezentant\u016f navrhl \u010dty\u0159bodov\u00fd pl\u00e1n k vy\u0159e\u0161en\u00ed posledn\u00ed f\u00e1ze desetilet\u00ed trvaj\u00edc\u00ed ob\u010dansk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky v Myanmaru.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vyz\u00fdv\u00e1 k ustaven\u00ed zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00edho panelu expert\u016f na zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiku a bezpe\u010dnost, kter\u00fd by vypracoval komplexn\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, vypracoval pohotovostn\u00ed pl\u00e1ny pro p\u0159\u00edpad zhor\u0161en\u00ed konfliktu, roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159il humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed koridor navr\u017een\u00fd minul\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc a \u201eMyanmar Troika Plus\u201c od ASEAN, \u010c\u00edny a Indie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zde je n\u011bkolik z\u00e1kladn\u00edch informac\u00ed pro ty, kte\u0159\u00ed v\u00e1lku nesledovali:<\/strong><\/p>\n

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  • 8. \u00fanora: \u201eT\u0159i roky star\u00fd konflikt v Myanmaru nen\u00ed tak jednoduch\u00fd, jak se na prvn\u00ed pohled zd\u00e1\u201c<\/span>\n
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    1. \u00danor: \u201eAmerika p\u0159ipravuje ve\u0159ejnost na dal\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1sahy v Myanmaru\u201c<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n
    2. 5. b\u0159ezna: \u201eAmerick\u00e9 vm\u011b\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed by mohlo naru\u0161it k\u0159ehk\u00fd m\u00edrov\u00fd proces v Myanmaru zprost\u0159edkovan\u00fd \u010c\u00ednou\u201c<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Lednov\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed zprost\u0159edkovan\u00e9 \u010c\u00ednou v podstat\u011b st\u00e1le plat\u00ed, ale myanmarsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da (Tatmadaw) prosazuje sv\u016fj z\u00e1kon o brann\u00e9 povinnosti, co\u017e je krok, kter\u00fd by podle n\u011bkter\u00fdch obav mohl znamenat konec tohoto \u201estuden\u00e9ho m\u00edru\u201c.\u00a0Jin\u00ed to interpretuj\u00ed jako p\u0159\u00edpravu na \u201eAlianci t\u0159\u00ed bratrstev\u201c (3BA), jej\u00ed\u017e ofenz\u00edva 1027 koncem lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku byla \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e kter\u00e1koli jin\u00e1 v historii jejich zem\u011b.\u00a0Pokud jde o n\u00e1zor Thajska, jeho ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara \u0159ekl v Davosu toto:<\/span><\/p>\n

      \u201eDlouhotrvaj\u00edc\u00ed ozbrojen\u00e9 boje r\u016fzn\u00fdch etnick\u00fdch skupin zes\u00edlily;\u00a0Byli pos\u00edleni ve sv\u00e9m vol\u00e1n\u00ed po v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed autonomii.\u00a0Bohu\u017eel demokratick\u00fd a ekonomick\u00fd pokrok, kter\u00e9ho bylo dosa\u017eeno p\u0159ed vypuknut\u00edm krize p\u0159ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 3 lety, je nyn\u00ed vymaz\u00e1n.\u00a0Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee konec tohoto vlekl\u00e9ho konfliktu je v nedohlednu.\u00a0Zem\u011b v regionu se ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee Myanmar bude st\u00e1le v\u00edce fragmentovan\u00fd a stane se ar\u00e9nou velmocensk\u00e9 konkurence.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Tento n\u00e1zor informoval o \u010dty\u0159bodov\u00e9m pl\u00e1nu, kter\u00fd zahrani\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdbor sn\u011bmovny pr\u00e1v\u011b p\u0159edstavil.\u00a0Panel odborn\u00edk\u016f vypracuje komplexn\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, kter\u00e9 bude sd\u00edleno se v\u0161emi z\u00fa\u010dastn\u011bn\u00fdmi stranami: pohotovostn\u00ed pl\u00e1ny by byly pro \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed velk\u00fdch tok\u016f uprchl\u00edk\u016f, humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed koridor m\u016f\u017ee udr\u017eet vnit\u0159n\u011b vys\u00eddlen\u00e9 lidi na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b hranice, zat\u00edmco \u201eMyanmarsk\u00e1 trojka plus\u201c dal\u0161\u00ed dva soused\u00e9 by mohli zahrnovat tuto zemi.<\/span><\/p>\n

      To je zcela rozumn\u00e9, ale n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed mimo zemi jsou st\u00e1le proti.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Igor Blazevic z The Irrawaddy, opozi\u010dn\u00edho online projektu, publikoval na za\u010d\u00e1tku \u00fanora \u010dl\u00e1nek o tom, pro\u010d \u201ethajsk\u00e1 iniciativa humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed pomoci pro Myanmar je chybn\u00e1 a nebude fungovat\u201c.\u00a0Domn\u00edv\u00e1 se, \u017ee \u201epolitick\u00fdm pl\u00e1nem \u201ehumanit\u00e1rn\u00ed iniciativy\u201c je p\u0159iv\u00e9st vojenskou juntu a dal\u0161\u00ed politick\u00e9 a odbojov\u00e9 akt\u00e9ry k jednac\u00edmu stolu a p\u0159\u00edslib pomoci je jen mrkev.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Poselstv\u00ed v podstat\u011b zn\u00ed: \u201eBu\u010f souhlas\u00edte s \u201adeeskalac\u00ed n\u00e1sil\u00ed\u2018 a zah\u00e1j\u00edte \u201aall-inclusive\u2018 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e1 usnadn\u00edme \u2013 a pot\u00e9 otev\u0159eme koridory pro pomoc,\u201c nebo budou ponech\u00e1ni sami, pokud oni odm\u00edtaj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Ke cti, \u017ee to m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt velmi dob\u0159e z\u00e1m\u011br Thajska, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee vysv\u011btlovat, pro\u010d americkou vl\u00e1dou financovan\u00e9 R\u00e1dio Svobodn\u00e1 Asie bylo v\u016f\u010di t\u00e9to iniciativ\u011b skeptick\u00e9 ve sv\u00e9m \u010dl\u00e1nku koncem tohoto m\u011bs\u00edce: \u201eStane se thajsk\u00fd<\/span>
      \nkoridor pomoci s v\u00e1lkou zni\u010den\u00fdm Myanmarem?\u201c Al Jazeera , kter\u00e1 sympatizuje s Rohingyi, jejich\u017e \u201eArakansk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da\u201c je sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed 3BA, tak\u00e9 pr\u00e1v\u011b zve\u0159ejnila velmi kritick\u00fd \u010dl\u00e1nek o tom, jak \u201eThajsko a Laos se sna\u017e\u00ed prezentovat juntu uprost\u0159ed setrva\u010dnosti ASEANu v\u016f\u010di Myanmaru\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Z t\u011bchto t\u0159\u00ed \u010dl\u00e1nk\u016f lze nab\u00fdt dojmu, \u017ee 3BA a jej\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u00ed podporovatel\u00e9 jsou proti \u010dty\u0159bodov\u00e9mu pl\u00e1nu Thajska, zejm\u00e9na jeho humanit\u00e1rn\u00edmu koridoru, proto\u017ee spr\u00e1vn\u011b ch\u00e1pou, \u017ee jejich z\u00e1m\u011brem je p\u0159im\u011bt je ke kompromisu a p\u0159ipojit se k Tatmadaw.\u00a0M\u00edsto m\u00edru cht\u011bj\u00ed pokra\u010dovat ve v\u00e1lce, proto\u017ee v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, spr\u00e1vn\u011b \u010di nepr\u00e1vem, \u017ee mohou stav\u011bt na \u00fasp\u011b\u0161\u00edch ofenzivy 1027 a zasadit smrtelnou r\u00e1nu Tatmadaw.<\/span><\/p>\n

      V n\u011bkter\u00fdch ohledech jsou tato o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed podobn\u00e1 t\u011bm, kter\u00e1 m\u011bla Ukrajina a jej\u00ed patroni na ja\u0159e 2022 pot\u00e9, co bylo gesto dobr\u00e9 v\u016fle Ruska st\u00e1hnout se z Kyjeva b\u011bhem vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed interpretov\u00e1no jako slabost, a proto Zelenskyj na n\u00e1vrh b\u00fdval\u00e9ho britsk\u00e9ho premi\u00e9ra Ministr Johnson, ustoupil, odstoupil z m\u00edrov\u00fdch jedn\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0Pot\u00e9 zatla\u010dili Rusko zp\u011bt od Charkova a \u010d\u00e1sti Chersonu, jen aby jejich protiofenz\u00edva selhala a zvr\u00e1tila vojensko-strategickou dynamiku t\u00edm, \u017ee je postavila zp\u011bt do obrann\u00e9 linie:<\/span><\/p>\n

      N\u011bco podobn\u00e9ho se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b odehr\u00e1v\u00e1 mezi 3BA a jej\u00edmi zahrani\u010dn\u00edmi podporovateli, kte\u0159\u00ed se podle v\u0161eho p\u0159ipravuj\u00ed na vlastn\u00ed ukrajinskou ofenz\u00edvu v nad\u011bji, \u017ee strategicky poraz\u00ed Tatmadaw, stejn\u011b jako se to loni pokusily Kyjev a Z\u00e1pad s Ruskem.\u00a0To je d\u016fvod, pro\u010d v\u00e1haj\u00ed, zda podpo\u0159it thajsk\u00fd \u010dty\u0159bodov\u00fd pl\u00e1n, ale ne\u00fasp\u011bch jejich potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed ofenz\u00edvy by je mohl ponechat v mnohem slab\u0161\u00ed pozici, ze kter\u00e9 by mohli pozd\u011bji vyjedn\u00e1vat.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Thajsko se ale p\u0159\u00edlivu uprchl\u00edk\u016f ob\u00e1v\u00e1, pokud by se boje znovu rozho\u0159ely, a proto chce tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 preventivn\u011b odvr\u00e1tit sv\u00fdm n\u00e1vrhem na humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed m\u00edr, do kter\u00e9ho se zapoj\u00ed i sousedn\u00ed zem\u011b \u010c\u00edna a Indie.\u00a0Peking ji\u017e vede posledn\u00ed kolo m\u00edrov\u00fdch rozhovor\u016f, ale Dill\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b nedostalo m\u00edsto u vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00edho stolu, co\u017e by mohlo zhor\u0161it ji\u017e tak napjat\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed dilema a vyvolat tak je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u201evelkou mocenskou konkurenci\u201c v Myanmaru, varoval Bahiddha-Nukara .<\/span><\/p>\n

      Nejlep\u0161\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em je, \u017ee \u010dty\u0159bodov\u00fd pl\u00e1n Thajska tvo\u0159\u00ed z\u00e1klad pro komplexn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed konfliktu, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e trumfem t\u00e9to zem\u011b je usnadn\u011bn\u00ed humanit\u00e1rn\u00edho p\u0159\u00edstupu do Myanmaru a p\u0159ekro\u010den\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00edch krys\u00edch lini\u00ed pro vyzbrojen\u00ed 3BA k uzav\u0159en\u00ed jeho \u00fazem\u00ed.\u00a0To by mohlo sta\u010dit k tomu, aby p\u0159inutili rebely udr\u017eovat m\u00edrov\u00fd proces zprost\u0159edkovan\u00fd \u010c\u00ednou a z\u00e1rove\u0148 roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it tento r\u00e1mec v neform\u00e1ln\u00ed schopnosti poskytnout Indii ur\u010dit\u00fd p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek.<\/span><\/p>\n

      Nen\u00ed samoz\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee 3BA a jej\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u00ed podporovatel\u00e9 budou racion\u00e1ln\u011b reagovat p\u0159ijet\u00edm tohoto n\u00e1vrhu, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b kdy\u017e se zd\u00e1, \u017ee sami sebe p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dili, \u017ee Tatmadaw m\u016f\u017ee utrp\u011bt strategickou por\u00e1\u017eku b\u011bhem mo\u017en\u00e9 nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed ofenz\u00edvy.\u00a0Pokud sel\u017eou thajsk\u00fd \u010dty\u0159bodov\u00fd pl\u00e1n a m\u00edrov\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed zprost\u0159edkovan\u00e1 \u010c\u00ednou, o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee konflikt zes\u00edl\u00ed, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee destabilizovat cel\u00fd region.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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      ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

       <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      P\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dili se, \u017ee Tatmadaw m\u016f\u017ee \u010delit strategick\u00e9 por\u00e1\u017ece b\u011bhem mo\u017en\u00e9 nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed ofenz\u00edvy, stejn\u011b jako si…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":49907,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[760,766,1525],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49906"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49906"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49906\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49907"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49906"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49906"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49906"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}