{"id":49864,"date":"2024-03-21T00:50:02","date_gmt":"2024-03-20T23:50:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=49864"},"modified":"2024-03-20T18:52:13","modified_gmt":"2024-03-20T17:52:13","slug":"andrew-korybko-francie-se-pravdepodobne-bude-snazit-zabezpecit-cernomorske-pobrezi-ukrajiny-pokud-bude-konvencne-zasahovat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/03\/21\/andrew-korybko-francie-se-pravdepodobne-bude-snazit-zabezpecit-cernomorske-pobrezi-ukrajiny-pokud-bude-konvencne-zasahovat\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Francie se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b bude sna\u017eit zabezpe\u010dit \u010dernomo\u0159sk\u00e9 pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed Ukrajiny, pokud bude konven\u010dn\u011b zasahovat"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Rumunsko a Moldavsko, kde Francie ji\u017e m\u00e1 sv\u00e9 voj\u00e1ky a pr\u00e1v\u011b podepsala bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed pakt, kter\u00fd by mohl brzy v\u00e9st k tomu sam\u00e9mu, by snadno mohly slou\u017eit jako jeho odpalovac\u00ed z\u00e1kladna Od\u011bsa.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0160\u00e9f rusk\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed \u0161pion\u00e1\u017ee Nary\u0161kin v \u00fater\u00fd\u00a0varoval\u00a0<\/a>, \u017ee Francie se p\u0159ipravuje na vysl\u00e1n\u00ed 2000 voj\u00e1k\u016f na Ukrajinu pot\u00e9, co Macron minul\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc tvrdil, \u017ee\u00a0nelze vylou\u010dit\u00a0konven\u010dn\u00ed intervenci NATO .\u00a0<\/a>Toto prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed se tak\u00e9 shodovalo s t\u00edm, \u017ee nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed francouzsk\u00fd gener\u00e1l\u00a0potvrdil\u00a0<\/a>, \u017ee jeho s\u00edly jsou p\u0159ipraveny nasadit se, kdekoli by to mohlo b\u00fdt pot\u0159eba, co\u017e zdiskreditovalo popis Nary\u0161kinova varov\u00e1n\u00ed ministerstvem obrany jako \u201e dezinformaci\u00a0<\/a>\u201c, proto\u017ee na tom, co \u0159ekl, existuje ur\u010dit\u00e1 objektivn\u011b existuj\u00edc\u00ed pravda.<\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco mnoho \u010dlen\u016f\u00a0komunity Alt-Media\u00a0<\/a>se Macronovu tvrzen\u00ed minul\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc vysm\u00edvalo, presti\u017en\u00ed rusk\u00fd expert mu v rozhovoru pro Sputnik jen prop\u016fj\u010dil d\u016fv\u011bru.\u00a0Alexander Michajlov, kter\u00fd je vedouc\u00edm think-tanku Bureau of vojensko-politick\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy v Rusku, v \u00fater\u00fd\u00a0\u0159ekl\u00a0<\/a>, \u017ee \u201eMacron m\u00e1 nepochybn\u011b p\u0159\u00edstup jak k person\u00e1lu, tak ke zdroj\u016fm pro vysl\u00e1n\u00ed voj\u00e1k\u016f na Ukrajinu\u201c.\u00a0Nen\u00ed proto nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by tam Francie mohla konven\u010dn\u011b zas\u00e1hnout.<\/p>\n

Pokud k tomu dojde, bude to bu\u010f preventivn\u00ed, nebo reaktivn\u00ed, a to bu\u010f jednostrann\u011b, nebo jako sou\u010d\u00e1st \u201e\u00a0koalice ochotn\u00fdch\u00a0<\/a>\u201c.\u00a0Pokud jde o prvn\u00ed volbu, Francie by se to mohla pokusit ospravedlnit pod z\u00e1minkou z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1skoku p\u0159ed t\u00edm, ne\u017e\u00a0Rusko dos\u00e1hne pr\u016flomu\u00a0<\/a>p\u0159es linii kontaktu (LOC), nebo by mohla jen po\u010dkat, a\u017e se tato \u201espou\u0161t\u011bc\u00ed ud\u00e1lost\u201c stane.\u00a0Pokud jde o druhou mo\u017enost, ud\u011bl\u00e1 to bu\u010f samostatn\u011b, nebo sp\u00ed\u0161e ve spolupr\u00e1ci s Velkou\u00a0Brit\u00e1ni\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>,\u00a0Polskem\u00a0<\/a>a\u00a0pobaltsk\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty\u00a0<\/a>s\u00a0mo\u017enou n\u011bmeckou \u00fa\u010dast\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Bez ohledu na z\u00e1minku a kohokoli jin\u00e9ho by se mohl z\u00fa\u010dastnit, Francie se t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u011b bude sna\u017eit zabezpe\u010dit \u010dernomo\u0159sk\u00e9 pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed Ukrajiny, pokud konven\u010dn\u011b zas\u00e1hne.\u00a0Od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2022 m\u00e1 v Rumunsku\u00a0n\u011bkolik stovek voj\u00e1k\u016f\u00a0<\/a>, kter\u00e9 lze p\u0159ed t\u00edmto krokem pos\u00edlit, a pr\u00e1v\u011b po\u010d\u00e1tkem tohoto m\u011bs\u00edce\u00a0podepsala bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed pakt\u00a0<\/a>s Moldavskem, kter\u00fd by mohl v\u00e9st k tomu, \u017ee bude hostit i voj\u00e1ky.\u00a0\u201eV\u00fdchodn\u00ed Balk\u00e1n\u201c, kter\u00fd spad\u00e1 pod francouzskou \u201esf\u00e9ru vlivu\u201c, se tak m\u016f\u017ee st\u00e1t francouzsk\u00fdm odrazov\u00fdm m\u016fstkem pro Ukrajinu.<\/p>\n

Rumunsko a Moldavsko ji\u017e soused\u00ed s ukrajinskou Od\u011bskou oblast\u00ed, jej\u00ed\u017e stejnojmenn\u00e9 hlavn\u00ed m\u011bsto je strategicky i symbolicky d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9.\u00a0Je to nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstav b\u00fdval\u00e9 sov\u011btsk\u00e9 republiky, ale tak\u00e9\u00a0historicky rusk\u00e9 m\u011bsto\u00a0<\/a>.\u00a0Zajistit ji pod kontrolou Moskvy t\u00edm, \u017ee tam budou vysl\u00e1ny francouzsk\u00e9 jednotky \u010dlensk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f NATO jako takzvan\u00fd \u201eodstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed prost\u0159edek\u201c v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee se LOC zhrout\u00ed nebo se objev\u00ed na pokraji zhroucen\u00ed, je proto pro Z\u00e1pad dvojn\u00e1sob d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9.<\/p>\n

N\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed bezpilotn\u00ed letouny by v tomto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i mohly\u00a0nad\u00e1le ohro\u017eovat\u00a0<\/a>ruskou flotilu, zat\u00edmco p\u0159\u00edznivci t\u00e9to zem\u011b by mohli b\u00fdt skl\u00ed\u010deni pot\u00e9, co si uv\u011bdomili, \u017ee op\u011btovn\u00e9 sjednocen\u00ed s Od\u011bsou by bylo t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nemo\u017en\u00e9, ani\u017e by rozpoutalo t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btovou v\u00e1lku, pokud by se toto m\u011bsto dostalo p\u0159es Francii de facto pod kontrolu NATO.\u00a0Proto\u017ee se Dn\u011bpr v posledn\u00edch dvou letech uk\u00e1zal jako hroziv\u00e1 p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eka pro s\u00edly obou stran, je velmi mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee Francie roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed svou z\u00f3nu kontroly pod\u00e9l pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed \u010cern\u00e9ho mo\u0159e a\u017e po Cherson.<\/p>\n

To by pak vedlo k tomu, \u017ee by se rusko-ukrajinsk\u00e9 LOC stalo rusko-NATO a mohlo by se dokonce roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it na sever po Dn\u011bpru k Z\u00e1poro\u017esk\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rn\u011b, ale francouzsk\u00e9 s\u00edly by se mohly zdr\u00e1hat p\u0159ekro\u010dit \u0159eku do Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed a d\u00e1le, aby nep\u0159eh\u00e1n\u011bj\u00edc svou vojenskou logistiku. Nav\u00edc, jeliko\u017e by tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 intervence souvisel s mo\u017en\u00fdm rusk\u00fdm pr\u016flomem, Francie by mo\u017en\u00e1 necht\u011bla riskovat st\u0159et s Ruskem na v\u00fdchodn\u00ed stran\u011b Dn\u011bpru.<\/p>\n

Jakkoli m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt tento sled ud\u00e1lost\u00ed bezprecedentn\u011b nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd kv\u016fli velmi vysok\u00e9mu riziku, \u017ee t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka by mohla b\u00fdt vyvol\u00e1na \u0161patn\u00fdm odhadem, st\u0159\u00edbrn\u00fdm lemem je, \u017ee by to mohlo potenci\u00e1ln\u011b zmrazit pozice ka\u017ed\u00e9 strany alespo\u0148 pod\u00e9l ji\u017en\u00ed fronty, a tak nastavit \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9 z\u00e1klad pro\u00a0p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>.\u00a0Ukrajin\u0161t\u00ed voj\u00e1ci by tak\u00e9 mohli uprchnout na z\u00e1pad p\u0159es Dn\u011bpr, pokud by Rusko prolomilo LOC a v\u011bd\u011blo by, \u017ee jejich nep\u0159\u00e1tel\u00e9 by je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nen\u00e1sledovali ze strachu, \u017ee by st\u0159etem s jednotkami NATO vyvolali t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btovou v\u00e1lku.<\/p>\n

To by Rusku mohlo umo\u017enit zajistit p\u0159edpokl\u00e1danou \u201e\u00a0sanit\u00e1rn\u00ed\/bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00f3nu\u00a0<\/a>\u201c prezidenta Putina, o kter\u00e9 hovo\u0159il b\u011bhem sv\u00e9ho znovuvolebn\u00edho projevu, a p\u0159ipravit tak p\u016fdu pro\u00a0asymetrick\u00e9 rozd\u011blen\u00ed Ukrajiny\u00a0<\/a>mezi NATO a Rusko s \u201e\u00a0n\u00e1razn\u00edkovou z\u00f3nou\u00a0<\/a>\u201c na severov\u00fdchod\u011b a v\u00fdchod\u011b Ukrajiny.\u00a0Up\u0159\u00edmn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, ukrajinsk\u00e9 pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed \u010cern\u00e9ho mo\u0159e si Francie vezme za sv\u00e9, ale pouze pokud bude m\u00edt Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017e politickou v\u016fli j\u00edt do toho a jej\u00ed obyvatel\u00e9 se nevzbou\u0159\u00ed kv\u016fli obrovsk\u00fdm ztr\u00e1t\u00e1m zp\u016fsoben\u00fdm Rusy, kter\u00e9 by mohly n\u00e1sledovat (\u00a0pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm raketov\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f\u00a0<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rumunsko a Moldavsko, kde Francie ji\u017e m\u00e1 sv\u00e9 voj\u00e1ky a pr\u00e1v\u011b podepsala bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed pakt, kter\u00fd…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":49865,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,130,270,6990],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49864"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49864"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49864\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":49866,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49864\/revisions\/49866"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49865"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49864"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49864"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49864"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}