{"id":49840,"date":"2024-03-21T00:38:14","date_gmt":"2024-03-20T23:38:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=49840"},"modified":"2024-03-20T17:14:28","modified_gmt":"2024-03-20T16:14:28","slug":"salman-rafi-sheikh-nato-bije-na-valecne-bubny","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/03\/21\/salman-rafi-sheikh-nato-bije-na-valecne-bubny\/","title":{"rendered":"Salman Rafi Sheikh: NATO bije na v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 bubny"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n
\n
\n

Po koment\u00e1\u0159\u00edch francouzsk\u00e9ho prezidenta Macrona o vysl\u00e1n\u00ed jednotek NATO na Ukrajinu bojovat proti Rusku se jasn\u011b r\u00fdsuj\u00ed st\u00edny v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho konfliktu v Evrop\u011b.\u00a0Pokud se tak stane, bude to konflikt vyvolan\u00fd posedlost\u00ed Washingtonu roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00edm NATO na Ukrajinu a z toho vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed neschopnost\u00ed spojen\u00fdch sil NATO porazit a\/nebo vyjednat Rusko \u2013 Selh\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 nyn\u00ed zvy\u0161uje obavy evropsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f z rusk\u00e9 dominance (dal\u0161\u00ed Washington narativn\u00ed) v Evrop\u011b a vede je k tomu, aby uva\u017eovali o \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1lce jako o strategii p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed.\u00a0C\u00edl roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed t\u00e9to v\u00e1lky je stejn\u00fd jako ten, kter\u00fd ospravedl\u0148uje v\u00e1lku proti Rusku o Ukrajinu, toti\u017e zni\u010den\u00ed rusk\u00e9 ekonomiky, vytvo\u0159en\u00ed rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 soci\u00e1ln\u00ed a politick\u00e9 nestability a nakonec i vyvol\u00e1n\u00ed zm\u011bny re\u017eimu.\u00a0Proto\u017ee tohoto c\u00edle nebylo mo\u017en\u00e9 dos\u00e1hnout prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm dod\u00e1vek zbran\u00ed NATO a v\u00fdcviku ukrajinsk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil, NATO se nyn\u00ed p\u0159ipravuje na dosa\u017een\u00ed tohoto c\u00edle p\u0159\u00edmo.\u00a0Ji\u017e nyn\u00ed prov\u00e1d\u00ed velk\u00e9 cvi\u010den\u00ed (\u201eSteadfast Defender\u201c), do kter\u00e9ho jsou zapojeny v\u0161echny st\u00e1ty NATO.<\/span><\/p>\n

To se samoz\u0159ejm\u011b sn\u00e1ze \u0159ekne, ne\u017e ud\u011bl\u00e1.\u00a0Proti vysl\u00e1n\u00ed voj\u00e1k\u016f na Ukrajinu se nap\u0159\u00edklad postavilo mnoho zem\u00ed NATO, v\u010detn\u011b N\u011bmecka, Polska a \u0160v\u00e9dska.\u00a0N\u011bmeck\u00fd kancl\u00e9\u0159 Olaf \u0159ekl \u2013 v podstat\u011b v rozporu s Macronem \u2013, \u017ee existuje dohoda o nevysl\u00e1n\u00ed jednotek NATO na Ukrajinu.\u00a0To bylo zopakov\u00e1no pot\u00e9, co rusk\u00fd prezident Putin varoval, \u017ee Rusko je p\u0159ipraveno pou\u017e\u00edt jadernou variantu, pokud bude ohro\u017eena rusk\u00e1 st\u00e1tnost.\u00a0Toto varov\u00e1n\u00ed nep\u0159i\u0161lo jako odpov\u011b\u010f na ot\u00e1zku novin\u00e1\u0159e, ale v projevu Putina p\u0159ed Feder\u00e1ln\u00edm shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00edm Ruska, co\u017e nazna\u010duje z\u00e1va\u017enost varov\u00e1n\u00ed a Putinovu snahu o tom p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit ruskou politickou elitu.\u00a0Tato v\u00e1\u017enost m\u011bla za n\u00e1sledek rozbit\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch bubn\u016f NATO a p\u0159im\u011blo mnoho zem\u00ed NATO okam\u017eit\u011b se st\u00e1hnout a p\u0159ehodnotit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je pravda, \u017ee mnoho st\u00e1t\u016f NATO m\u00e1 jadern\u00e9 kapacity, kter\u00e9 by mohly vyu\u017e\u00edt k odstra\u0161en\u00ed Ruska.\u00a0Pouh\u00fd p\u0159\u00edzrak velk\u00e9 (jadern\u00e9) v\u00e1lky v regionu v\u0161ak tak\u00e9 znamen\u00e1, \u017ee mnoh\u00e9 z t\u011bchto zem\u00ed budou muset zv\u00fd\u0161it sv\u00e9 v\u00fddaje na obranu.\u00a0Donald Trump ned\u00e1vno prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee pokud by se stal prezidentem Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f a \u010dlenov\u00e9 NATO by neutratili sv\u016fj dluh, Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty by pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nedodr\u017eely Chartu NATO, kter\u00e1 v \u010dl\u00e1nku 5 uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee v\u0161echny \u010dlensk\u00e9 zem\u011b NATO p\u0159ijmou svou roli, kdy\u017e st\u00e1t je napaden.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud nyn\u00ed tyto zem\u011b NATO podpo\u0159\u00ed rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed jednotek NATO na Ukrajin\u011b, nevyhnuteln\u011b to zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1klady na v\u00e1lku, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee tyto zem\u011b budou muset bu\u010f vydat 2 procenta sv\u00e9ho HDP na obranu a\/nebo se aliance rozpadne.\u00a0Odm\u00edtnut\u00ed poslat voj\u00e1ky do NATO proto d\u00e1v\u00e1 smysl i vzhledem k o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9mu n\u00e1vratu Donalda Trumpa do B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu.\u00a0Zem\u011b NATO se necht\u011bj\u00ed vrhnout do krize, kterou by nemusely b\u00fdt schopny financovat s ohledem na pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed ekonomickou krizi nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d evropsk\u00fdm kontinentem a kter\u00e1 by mohla vytla\u010dit USA pod Trumpem z aliance a d\u00e1le je oslabit v\u016f\u010di Rusku. .<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak ukazuj\u00ed data, pouze jeden\u00e1ct zem\u00ed NATO vyd\u00e1v\u00e1 na obranu 2 % nebo v\u00edce sv\u00e9ho HDP, zat\u00edmco v\u011bt\u0161ina, v\u010detn\u011b Francie, ne.\u00a0Toto rozd\u011blen\u00ed nen\u00ed n\u00e1hoda.\u00a0Ur\u010duj\u00ed je geopolitick\u00e9 \u00favahy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty utr\u00e1cej\u00ed obrovsk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed pen\u011bz na obranu, je to p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm proto, \u017ee se pova\u017euj\u00ed za sv\u011btovou velmoc schopnou rozm\u00edstit svou vojenskou s\u00edlu kdekoli na sv\u011bt\u011b.\u00a0Ne v\u0161echny zem\u011b NATO v\u0161ak tuto vizi sd\u00edlej\u00ed.\u00a0St\u00e1ty NATO, kter\u00e9 jsou geograficky bl\u00edzk\u00e9 Rusku, jako je Polsko, vyd\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u00edce na obranu kv\u016fli jejich specifick\u00e9mu vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed hrozeb.\u00a0Na druhou stranu ostatn\u00ed zem\u011b NATO jako Francie, \u0160pan\u011blsko, Kanada atd. utr\u00e1cej\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 2 procenta, proto\u017ee jsou geograficky daleko od Ruska, co\u017e vede k odli\u0161n\u00e9mu vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed hrozby v\u016f\u010di Rusku.\u00a0Ve skute\u010dnosti se toto vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed hrozby nezm\u011bnilo od roku 2014, kdy Rusko ovl\u00e1dlo Krym.\u00a0V letech 2014 a\u017e 2023 mnoho zem\u00ed NATO jako Francie, Norsko, D\u00e1nsko, N\u011bmecko, It\u00e1lie atd. nezv\u00fd\u0161ilo sv\u00e9 obrann\u00e9 v\u00fddaje.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud tedy v\u011bt\u0161ina zem\u00ed NATO nevynakl\u00e1d\u00e1 dostate\u010dn\u00e9 prost\u0159edky na alianci, znamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee aliance nem\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st dlouhou v\u00e1lku.\u00a0NATO zat\u00edm vedlo jen kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, jako byla ta v Libyi.\u00a0V Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu, kde byla dlouh\u00e1 v\u00e1lka, ji vedly p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm USA \u2013 a nedos\u00e1hly sv\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f.\u00a0N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed v Alianci jsou si toho v\u011bdomi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Admir\u00e1l Rob Bauer z Kr\u00e1lovsk\u00e9ho nizozemsk\u00e9ho n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva, vysok\u00fd vojensk\u00fd velitel NATO a vojensk\u00fd poradce Severoatlantick\u00e9 rady, v \u0159\u00edjnu lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku \u0159ekl: \u201ePot\u0159ebujeme velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed.\u00a0Ekonomika just-in-time, just-enough, kterou jsme spole\u010dn\u011b vybudovali v na\u0161ich liber\u00e1ln\u00edch ekonomik\u00e1ch za posledn\u00edch 30 let, je dobr\u00e1 pro mnoho v\u011bc\u00ed \u2013 ale ne pro ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly, kdy\u017e prob\u00edh\u00e1 v\u00e1lka.\u00a0To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee m\u016f\u017ee bojovat jen tak dlouho, dokud dod\u00e1vky pote\u010dou, co\u017e z\u00e1vis\u00ed na rozpo\u010dtech \u010dlensk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, kter\u00e9 mnoz\u00ed necht\u011bj\u00ed nebo nejsou schopni zv\u00fd\u0161it.\u00a0Proto NATO preferuje strategii, kter\u00e1 m\u016f\u017ee rychle ukon\u010dit jakoukoli v\u00e1lku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nicm\u00e9n\u011b pokud jde o boj s vojenskou supervelmoc\u00ed, jako je Rusko, kter\u00e9 m\u00e1 jadern\u00e9 schopnosti, rychl\u00e9 z\u00e1v\u011bry nejsou re\u00e1ln\u011b mo\u017en\u00e9.\u00a0V\u011bt\u0161ina st\u00e1t\u016f NATO si to uv\u011bdomuje, proto\u017ee za\u017eila, \u017ee jejich d\u016fsledn\u00e1 podpora Ukrajiny ani zdaleka nevedla ke smyslupln\u00e9 zm\u011bn\u011b re\u017eimu, nato\u017e k vojensk\u00e9mu v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed nad Ruskem.<\/span><\/p>\n

*<\/span><\/p>\n

Salman Rafi Sheikh<\/strong>, analytik mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch vztah\u016f a p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed a dom\u00e1c\u00ed politiky, exkluzivn\u011b pro internetov\u00fd magaz\u00edn New Eastern Outlook<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n

ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Po koment\u00e1\u0159\u00edch francouzsk\u00e9ho prezidenta Macrona o vysl\u00e1n\u00ed jednotek NATO na Ukrajinu bojovat proti Rusku se…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":9100,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1503,39,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49840"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49840"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49840\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9100"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49840"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49840"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49840"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}