{"id":49331,"date":"2024-03-14T00:30:45","date_gmt":"2024-03-13T23:30:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=49331"},"modified":"2024-03-13T18:24:29","modified_gmt":"2024-03-13T17:24:29","slug":"andrew-korybko-polsko-by-mohlo-zadat-o-americky-souhlas-aby-mohlo-konvencne-zasahovat-na-ukrajine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/03\/14\/andrew-korybko-polsko-by-mohlo-zadat-o-americky-souhlas-aby-mohlo-konvencne-zasahovat-na-ukrajine\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Polsko by mohlo \u017e\u00e1dat o americk\u00fd souhlas, aby mohlo konven\u010dn\u011b zasahovat na Ukrajin\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Dokud nedojde ke t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce nespr\u00e1vn\u00fdm v\u00fdpo\u010dtem, pak by \u0161pinav\u00e1 Ukrajina z\u016fstala form\u00e1ln\u011b pod politickou kontrolou sv\u00fdch p\u0159edstavitel\u016f bez ohledu na to, kdo by to do t\u00e9 doby mohl b\u00fdt, zat\u00edmco z\u00e1padn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st, kter\u00e1 b\u00fdvala sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed Polska, by spadala pod jej\u00ed \u201e sf\u00e9ra ekonomick\u00e9ho vlivu\u201c.\u00a0Form\u00e1ln\u00ed reinkorporace je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e1 ze socioekonomick\u00fdch d\u016fvod\u016f, nato\u017e z nedostatku ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 podpory, i kdy\u017e n\u011bjak\u00e1 konfederace by se nakonec mohla zformovat pozd\u011bji.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Polsk\u00fd prezident Duda a premi\u00e9r Tusk\u00a0<\/span>se setkali s Bidenem\u00a0<\/span><\/a>v DC, aby si p\u0159ipomn\u011bli \u010dtvrtstolet\u00ed sv\u00e9 zem\u011b v NATO, b\u011bhem kter\u00e9ho tito\u00a0<\/span>zu\u0159iv\u00ed politi\u010dt\u00ed rivalov\u00e9\u00a0<\/span><\/a>lobovali za dal\u0161\u00ed pomoc Ukrajin\u011b v tom, co\u00a0<\/span>Politico\u00a0<\/span><\/a>ozna\u010dilo za \u201enaprosto jedine\u010dn\u00e9 znamen\u00ed politick\u00e9 jednoty\u201c.\u00a0P\u0159esto\u017ee n\u00e1m\u011bstek ministra obrany Wziatek\u00a0<\/span>ned\u00e1vno pop\u00edral\u00a0<\/span><\/a>implicitn\u00ed podporu\u00a0<\/a><\/span>ministra zahrani\u010d\u00ed Sikorsk\u00e9ho\u00a0<\/span>n\u00e1vrhu francouzsk\u00e9ho prezidenta Macrona, aby NATO\u00a0konven\u010dn\u011b zas\u00e1hlo\u00a0<\/a>na Ukrajin\u011b, tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 st\u00e1le nelze vylou\u010dit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prezident Putin pr\u00e1v\u011b\u00a0<\/span>varoval\u00a0<\/span><\/a>v rozhovoru, kter\u00fd byl odvys\u00edl\u00e1n den pot\u00e9, co se tito v\u016fdci setkali, \u017ee:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201ePokud, \u0159ekn\u011bme, polsk\u00e1 vojska vstoup\u00ed na ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed, aby \u2013 jak se \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 \u2013 chr\u00e1nila nap\u0159\u00edklad ukrajinsko-b\u011bloruskou hranici, nebo na n\u011bkter\u00fdch jin\u00fdch m\u00edstech, aby uvolnila ukrajinsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 kontingenty k \u00fa\u010dasti na nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch akc\u00edch na linii kontaktu, pak si mysl\u00edm, \u017ee polsk\u00e9 jednotky nikdy neodejdou.\u00a0No, zd\u00e1 se mi to tak.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Proto\u017ee se budou cht\u00edt vr\u00e1tit… sn\u00ed, cht\u011bj\u00ed si vr\u00e1tit ty zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 pova\u017euj\u00ed historicky za sv\u00e9 a kter\u00e9 jim sebral Otec n\u00e1rod\u016f Josif Vissarionovi\u010d Stalin a p\u0159evedl je na Ukrajinu. Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b je cht\u011bj\u00ed zp\u011bt.\u00a0A pokud tam vstoup\u00ed ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed polsk\u00e9 jednotky, je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee odejdou.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Jeho hodnocen\u00ed bude nyn\u00ed analyzov\u00e1no ve sv\u011btle ned\u00e1vn\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje, aby bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 posoudit jeho p\u0159esnost.<\/span><\/p>\n

Loni v \u010dervenci bylo vysv\u011btleno \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Jak Polsko lstiv\u011b p\u0159eb\u00edr\u00e1 kontrolu nad z\u00e1padn\u00ed Ukrajinou\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u201c ekonomick\u00fdmi prost\u0159edky nam\u00edsto vojensk\u00fdch, proto\u017ee ty prvn\u00ed jsou pova\u017eov\u00e1ny za mnohem efektivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a m\u00e9n\u011b riskantn\u00ed.\u00a0Mezit\u00edm tento \u010dl\u00e1nek\u00a0<\/span>z\u00a0<\/span><\/a>ledna vysv\u011btloval, pro\u010d pl\u00e1ny ma\u010farsk\u00fdch a rumunsk\u00fdch populist\u016f znovu za\u010dlenit zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 jejich n\u00e1rody ztratily ve prosp\u011bch Ukrajiny, jsou nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9 kv\u016fli obt\u00ed\u017e\u00edm, kter\u00e9 p\u0159edstavuje jejich zcela odli\u0161n\u00e1 demografie po druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce, kter\u00e1 je relevantn\u00ed i pro Polsko.<\/span><\/p>\n

V polovin\u011b \u00fanora se v\u0161ak vojensko-strategick\u00e9 kalkulace drasticky zm\u011bnily pot\u00e9, co\u00a0<\/span>v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed Ruska v Avd\u011bjevce\u00a0<\/span><\/a>u\u010dinilo pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e kdy jindy, \u017ee by n\u011bkdy koncem tohoto roku mohlo dos\u00e1hnout pr\u016flomu p\u0159es linii kontaktu (LOC).\u00a0Pr\u00e1v\u011b tento v\u00fdvoj p\u0159im\u011bl Macrona k tomu, aby ve\u0159ejn\u011b navrhl konven\u010dn\u00ed intervenci NATO na podporu Ukrajiny, aby zabr\u00e1nil kolapsu t\u00e9to zem\u011b a nakreslil \u010dervenou \u010d\u00e1ru v p\u00edsku co nejd\u00e1le na v\u00fdchod, aby zastavil rusk\u00fd parn\u00ed v\u00e1lec v tomto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u011bt\u0161ina z\u00e1padn\u00edch v\u016fdc\u016f na jeho n\u00e1vrh zareagovala chladn\u011b, s\u00a0<\/span>v\u00fdraznou v\u00fdjimkou\u00a0<\/span><\/a>pobaltsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f a polsk\u00e9ho ministra zahrani\u010d\u00ed Sikorsk\u00e9ho, a\u010dkoliv polsk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Sikorski nazna\u010doval, \u017ee tento n\u00e1vrh podpo\u0159il po t\u00fddnu pot\u00e9, co Tusk\u00a0<\/span>\u0159ekl\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, \u017ee to nen\u00ed ve h\u0159e, a pot\u00e9 byl v rozporu s n\u00e1m\u011bstkem ministra obrany. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b tato anal\u00fdza\u00a0<\/span>zde\u00a0<\/span><\/a>argumentovala, \u017ee Tuskova neochota je zp\u016fsobena obavou, \u017ee Polsko by mohlo b\u00fdt pov\u011b\u0161eno na sucho od NATO, pokud by se jeho s\u00edly st\u0159etly s Ruskem, a proto je pot\u0159eba z\u00edskat americk\u00fd souhlas.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bez toho by se Polsko mohlo c\u00edtit jist\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u00fa\u010dastnit se t\u00e9to mise spolu s alespo\u0148 jadern\u011b vyzbrojenou Franci\u00ed a Spojen\u00fdm kr\u00e1lovstv\u00edm, kter\u00e9 by se mohly uch\u00fdlit k jadern\u00e9mu brnksmanstv\u00ed v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee USA doporu\u010d\u00ed NATO jako celku, aby neuva\u017eovalo o roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed \u010dl\u00e1nku 5 na \u010dlensk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty na voj\u00e1ky ve t\u0159et\u00ed zemi. Nejlep\u0161\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em z pohledu Polska v\u0161ak je, \u017ee Ameri\u010dan tuto misi schv\u00e1l\u00ed a souhlas\u00ed s v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdm pr\u00e1vn\u011b pochybn\u00fdm v\u00fdkladem, aby v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee k tomu dojde, m\u011blo kryt\u00e9 z\u00e1da.<\/span><\/p>\n

Polsk\u00fd patologick\u00fd strach z obou stran z Ruska je d\u016fvodem, pro\u010d by Duda a Tusk mohli posunout sv\u016fj \u201enaprosto jedine\u010dn\u00fd znak politick\u00e9 jednoty\u201c na dal\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 t\u00edm, \u017ee se dohodnou na\u00a0<\/span>konven\u010dn\u00edm z\u00e1sahu\u00a0<\/span><\/a>na Ukrajin\u011b, aby zastavili rusk\u00fd parn\u00ed v\u00e1lec, pokud by se frontov\u00e9 linie v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed budoucnosti zhroutily.\u00a0<\/span>Form\u00e1ln\u00ed znovuza\u010dlen\u011bn\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u00fazem\u00ed b\u00fdval\u00e9 Druh\u00e9 polsk\u00e9 republiky, kter\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>ztratila ve prosp\u011bch Ukrajiny po roce 1939\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, v\u0161ak nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt mo\u017en\u00e9 ze socioekonomick\u00fdch d\u016fvod\u016f a nedostatku ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 podpory, ale del\u0161\u00ed vojensk\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edtomnost je mo\u017en\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Abychom to vysv\u011btlili, polsk\u00e1 ekonomika\u00a0<\/span>loni\u00a0<\/span>prudce zpomalila a lednov\u00fd pr\u016fzkum Evropsk\u00e9 rady pro zahrani\u010dn\u00ed vztahy\u00a0<\/span><\/a>uk\u00e1zal\u00a0<\/a>, \u017ee 40 % Pol\u00e1k\u016f pova\u017euje Ukrajince za hrozbu, co\u017e je nejv\u00edce ze v\u0161ech 12 evropsk\u00fdch zem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 zkoumali, a por\u00e1\u017e\u00ed Kyjev- skeptick\u00e9 Ma\u010farsko o 3 %.\u00a0Form\u00e1ln\u00ed znovuza\u010dlen\u011bn\u00ed dne\u0161n\u00edch ukrajinsk\u00fdch oblast\u00ed Lvov, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopol, Voly\u0148 a Rivne by p\u0159ivedlo do Polska v\u00edce ne\u017e 6 milion\u016f Ukrajinc\u016f na jejich celkov\u00fd odhadovan\u00fd po\u010det obyvatel do roku 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n

V zemi s p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 37 miliony obyvatel, kter\u00e1 je od druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky etnicky a n\u00e1bo\u017eensky homogenn\u00ed, by to zv\u00fd\u0161ilo populaci na p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 43 milion\u016f a vedlo k tomu, \u017ee v\u00edce ne\u017e 1\/8 jej\u00edch ob\u010dan\u016f budou men\u0161iny, jejich\u017e socioekonomick\u00e9 zabezpe\u010den\u00ed by bylo zaji\u0161t\u011bno, p\u0159ed \u201esjednocen\u00edm\u201c da\u0148ov\u00fdch poplatn\u00edk\u016f. Socioekonomick\u00fd rozvoj Polska po roce 1945 by byl t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u011b zanedb\u00e1n ve prosp\u011bch obnovy t\u011bchto \u201eobnoven\u00fdch \u00fazem\u00ed\u201c a pomoci jejich obyvatel\u016fm splnit souvisej\u00edc\u00ed standardy Polska.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je tedy snadn\u00e9 pochopit, pro\u010d by to nebylo popul\u00e1rn\u00ed u mas, z nich\u017e 40 % ji\u017e pova\u017euje Ukrajince za hrozbu, nemluv\u011b o milovan\u00fdch polsk\u00fdch farm\u00e1\u0159\u00edch, kte\u0159\u00ed ji\u017e blokuj\u00ed hranice, aby zabr\u00e1nili p\u0159\u00edlivu levn\u00fdch ukrajinsk\u00fdch zem\u011bd\u011blsk\u00fdch produkt\u016f p\u0159ed zni\u010den\u00edm jejich \u017eivobyt\u00ed. Z toho d\u016fvodu je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by Duda nebo Tusk s takov\u00fdmi pl\u00e1ny postoupili, ale del\u0161\u00ed vojensk\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edtomnost tam je \u00fapln\u011b jin\u00e1 z\u00e1le\u017eitost, se kterou by pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b souhlasili.<\/span><\/p>\n

To, co prezident Putin \u0159ekl o polsk\u00fdch jednotk\u00e1ch \u201echr\u00e1nit [nap\u0159\u00edklad] ukrajinsko-b\u011bloruskou hranici, nebo na n\u011bkter\u00fdch jin\u00fdch m\u00edstech, aby se uvolnily ukrajinsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 kontingenty k \u00fa\u010dasti na nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00fdch akc\u00edch na linii kontaktu\u201c, je v\u011brohodn\u00e9 ve vojensko-strategick\u00fdch z\u00e1jmech Polska. Mohly by tak\u00e9 pomoci udr\u017eet pr\u00e1vo a po\u0159\u00e1dek,\u00a0<\/span>pokud by se st\u00e1t zhroutil, pokud by Rusko dos\u00e1hlo pr\u016flomu\u00a0<\/span><\/a>p\u0159es LOC, co\u017e by mohlo zabr\u00e1nit p\u0159\u00edlivu ukrajinsk\u00fdch migrant\u016f\/uprchl\u00edk\u016f a zastavit pa\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed zbran\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stejn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 je, \u017ee tyto polsk\u00e9 jednotky by mohly zajistit p\u0159edpokl\u00e1danou \u201esf\u00e9ru ekonomick\u00e9ho vlivu\u201c sv\u00e9 zem\u011b na z\u00e1padn\u00ed Ukrajin\u011b\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159ed pronik\u00e1n\u00edm ze strany G7\u00a0<\/span><\/a>je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed ohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00fdmi pl\u00e1ny tohoto bloku jmenovat tam zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00edho vyslance, kter\u00fd by m\u011bl pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b za \u00fakol rozd\u011blit mezi n\u011b sf\u00e9ry.\u00a0Nejen to, ale Duda a Tusk mo\u017en\u00e1 Bidenovi sl\u00edbili, \u017ee schv\u00e1len\u00edm konven\u010dn\u00ed polsk\u00e9 intervence na Ukrajin\u011b by Var\u0161ava mohla vyu\u017e\u00edt \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00fdch zisk\u016f na n\u00e1kup dal\u0161\u00edch americk\u00fdch zbran\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Francie, N\u011bmecko a Spojen\u00e9 kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed maj\u00ed sv\u016fj vlastn\u00ed zbrojn\u00ed pr\u016fmysl, a proto je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by reinvestovaly \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00fdch zisk\u016f poch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch z Ukrajiny v USA, tak\u017ee Washington m\u00e1 p\u0159irozenou finan\u010dn\u00ed pob\u00eddku k podpo\u0159e Var\u0161avy p\u0159i obran\u011b sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00e9 \u201esf\u00e9ry\u201c tam schvalov\u00e1n\u00ed jeho konven\u010dn\u00edho z\u00e1sahu.\u00a0Pokud je to skute\u010dn\u011b to, o co Duda a Tusk b\u011bhem sv\u00e9 sch\u016fzky s Bidenem usilovali, a USA souhlas\u00ed s t\u00edm, \u017ee nepov\u011bs\u00ed Polsko na sucho, pak by se tento\u00a0<\/span>nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u00a0<\/span><\/a>mohl naplnit d\u0159\u00edve ne\u017e pozd\u011bji.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dokud nedojde ke t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce nespr\u00e1vn\u00fdm v\u00fdpo\u010dtem, pak by \u0161pinav\u00e1 Ukrajina z\u016fstala form\u00e1ln\u011b pod politickou kontrolou sv\u00fdch p\u0159edstavitel\u016f bez ohledu na to, kdo by to do t\u00e9 doby mohl b\u00fdt, zat\u00edmco z\u00e1padn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st, kter\u00e1 b\u00fdvala sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed Polska, by spadala pod jej\u00ed \u201e sf\u00e9ra ekonomick\u00e9ho vlivu\u201c.\u00a0Form\u00e1ln\u00ed reinkorporace je v\u0161ak nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e1 ze soci\u00e1ln\u011b-ekonomick\u00fdch d\u016fvod\u016f, kter\u00e9 byly vysv\u011btleny, nato\u017e pro nedostatek ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 podpory, i kdy\u017e n\u011bjak\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>konfederace\u00a0<\/span><\/a>by se nakonec mohla zformovat pozd\u011bji. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/div>\n
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Dokud nedojde ke t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce nespr\u00e1vn\u00fdm v\u00fdpo\u010dtem, pak by \u0161pinav\u00e1 Ukrajina z\u016fstala form\u00e1ln\u011b pod…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":49332,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,31,26,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49331"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49331"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49331\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49332"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49331"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49331"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49331"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}