{"id":49006,"date":"2024-03-10T00:47:16","date_gmt":"2024-03-09T23:47:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=49006"},"modified":"2024-03-09T16:04:06","modified_gmt":"2024-03-09T15:04:06","slug":"breznove-silenstvi-spojene-staty-a-realitni-bublina-pripravena-k-celosvetovemu-vybuchu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/03\/10\/breznove-silenstvi-spojene-staty-a-realitni-bublina-pripravena-k-celosvetovemu-vybuchu\/","title":{"rendered":"B\u0159eznov\u00e9 \u0161\u00edlenstv\u00ed: Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a realitn\u00ed bublina p\u0159ipravena k celosv\u011btov\u00e9mu v\u00fdbuchu"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Finan\u010dn\u00ed analytici to ji\u017e naz\u00fdvaj\u00ed b\u0159eznov\u00e9 \u0161\u00edlenstv\u00ed.\u00a0V pond\u011bl\u00ed 11. b\u0159ezna objev\u00edme velk\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd blaf americk\u00e9ho bankovn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu.\u00a0V\u0161echny o\u010di jsou up\u0159eny na Wall Street, kde je mezi velk\u00fdmi zpr\u00e1vami posledn\u00edch hodin zv\u00fdrazn\u011bna velk\u00e1 kr\u00e1tk\u00e1 s\u00e1zka na cenn\u00e9 pap\u00edry americk\u00fdch region\u00e1ln\u00edch bank.\u00a0Krize je jako v\u017edy pro n\u011bkoho dobr\u00e1: protagonist\u00e9 kr\u00e1tk\u00fdch prodej\u016f vyd\u011blali od za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2024 t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 1 miliardu dolar\u016f.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

D\u011bsiv\u00e1 je nov\u00e1 realitn\u00ed bublina.\u00a0Panuj\u00ed obavy z opakov\u00e1n\u00ed krize z roku 2008, ale s je\u0161t\u011b ni\u010div\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi d\u016fsledky.\u00a0Realitn\u00ed bublina by m\u011bla d\u016fsledky v celosv\u011btov\u00e9m m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku.\u00a0Americk\u00e1 realitn\u00ed krize 2.0 si v ml\u010den\u00ed m\u00e9di\u00ed ji\u017e za\u010dala vy\u017e\u00e1dat ob\u011bti tak\u00e9 na star\u00e9m kontinentu (Signa v Rakousku), pot\u00e9, co si v Japonsku vy\u017e\u00e1dala svou prvn\u00ed kolapsem Aozora Bank.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc koment\u00e1\u0159 Roberta Rivy, partnera divize realitn\u00edho trhu advok\u00e1tn\u00ed kancel\u00e1\u0159e Cole Schotz, nen\u00ed p\u0159\u00edzniv\u00fd:<\/span><\/p>\n

„V\u011b\u0159\u00edm, \u017ee expozice na trhu komer\u010dn\u00edch nemovitost\u00ed (CRE) ovlivn\u00ed mnohem v\u00edce bank.“<\/em><\/p>\n

Pro Rivu ve skute\u010dnosti \u201etoto nen\u00ed n\u011bco, co by bylo omezeno na n\u011bkoho, kdo mo\u017en\u00e1 d\u011bl\u00e1 stejn\u00e9 chyby jako Lehman Brothers o 15 let pozd\u011bji.\u00a0To je probl\u00e9m, kter\u00fd se t\u00fdk\u00e1 cel\u00e9ho sektoru.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

Ale co se d\u011bje na Wall Street pr\u00e1v\u011b te\u010f?\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>Region\u00e1ln\u00ed banky, vystaven\u00e9 realitn\u00edmu trhu, skon\u010dily v hled\u00e1\u010dku spekulac\u00ed.\u00a0Kr\u00e1tk\u00fd \u00fatok za\u010dal v d\u016fsledku probl\u00e9m\u016f, kter\u00e9 postihly americkou region\u00e1ln\u00ed banku New York Community Bancorp (NYCB), ob\u011b\u0165 jej\u00edho vystaven\u00ed probl\u00e9m\u016fm americk\u00e9ho trhu komer\u010dn\u00edch nemovitost\u00ed.\u00a0V\u00fdprodeje lze vysv\u011btlit tak\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edchodem kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9ho data pro bankovn\u00ed syst\u00e9m Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f: p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho pond\u011bl\u00ed 11. b\u0159ezna 2024, co\u017e odpov\u00edd\u00e1 datu vypr\u0161en\u00ed re\u017eimu, kter\u00fd Fed spustil pr\u00e1v\u011b s c\u00edlem zajistit banky USA.\u00a0Probl\u00e9m, kter\u00fd rozpout\u00e1v\u00e1 zu\u0159ivost kr\u00e1tk\u00fdch prodejc\u016f proti cenn\u00fdm pap\u00edr\u016fm region\u00e1ln\u00edch bank v USA, je shrnut ve zkratce BTFP, co\u017e je zkratka pro Bank Term Funding Program: je to pl\u00e1n, kter\u00fd vychrlil Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rezervn\u00ed syst\u00e9m pod veden\u00edm americk\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky. prezidentem Jeromem Powellem.\u00a0Program aktivoval Fed v reakci na americkou bankovn\u00ed krizi, kter\u00e1 vypukla v b\u0159eznu 2023 kolapsem t\u0159\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00edch bank: Signature, Silvergate a Silicon Valley Bank (SVB).<\/span><\/p>\n

K tomuto krachu do\u0161lo uprost\u0159ed zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb, kter\u00e9 Fed Jeroma Powella nad\u00e1le spou\u0161t\u011bl, aby srazil na kolena p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 vysokou inflaci ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech.\u00a0Nebyla to n\u00e1hoda.\u00a0Pr\u00e1v\u011b ta opakovan\u011b ohla\u0161ovan\u00e1 m\u011bnov\u00e1 zp\u0159\u00edsn\u011bn\u00ed nahlodala hodnotu americk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f, kter\u00e9 banky nashrom\u00e1\u017edily a kter\u00e9 n\u011bjakou dobu stagnovaly v jejich rozvah\u00e1ch.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1v\u011b krach SVB dne 10. b\u0159ezna 2023 spustil fenom\u00e9n bank run, tedy banky \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 n\u011bkolika americk\u00fdmi majiteli \u00fa\u010dt\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed, zachv\u00e1ceni \u00fazkost\u00ed z toho, \u017ee nebudou moci vid\u011bt navr\u00e1cen\u00ed sv\u00fdch \u00faspor, spustili fenom\u00e9n \u00faniku vklady.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zastaven\u00ed BTFP, o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 na p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed pond\u011bl\u00ed 11. b\u0159ezna, o\u010dividn\u011b p\u0159iprav\u00ed \u00fav\u011brov\u00e9 instituce o mo\u017enost z\u00edskat levn\u00e9 financov\u00e1n\u00ed od Fedu, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1klady na p\u0159\u00edstup k financov\u00e1n\u00ed na \u00fakor ziskov\u00fdch mar\u017e\u00ed. .\u00a0To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee americk\u00e9 banky, aby se ochr\u00e1nily, by se mohly rozhodnout uvalit vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby na p\u016fj\u010dky, kter\u00e9 poskytuj\u00ed sv\u00fdm z\u00e1kazn\u00edk\u016fm, nebo zp\u0159\u00edsnit \u00fav\u011brov\u00e9 kohoutky, co\u017e by po\u0161kodilo ekonomiku.\u00a0Region\u00e1ln\u00ed banky vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed sch\u00e9ma BTFP v hodnot\u011b t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 180 miliard dolar\u016f t\u00fddn\u011b.\u00a0Lavina pen\u011bz p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch odnikud, v zemi na pokraji platebn\u00ed neschopnosti: americk\u00fd ve\u0159ejn\u00fd dluh prolomil strop 34 bilion\u016f a ka\u017ed\u00fdch 100 dn\u00ed roste o bilion, bez m\u011bnov\u00fdch emis\u00ed provozovan\u00fdch pomoc\u00ed mimeografick\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edstroj\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco tedy technologick\u00e9 akcie na Wall Street shr\u00e1bnou zisky a d\u00edky neust\u00e1l\u00fdm zp\u011btn\u00fdm odkup\u016fm st\u00e1le rostou, jsou tac\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed bij\u00ed na poplach ohledn\u011b sou\u010dasn\u00e9 a budouc\u00ed udr\u017eitelnosti finan\u010dn\u00edho ekonomick\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu USA.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Zde je to, co Martin Armstrong, ekonom proslul\u00fd sledov\u00e1n\u00edm \u010dasov\u00fdch \u0159ad a ekonomick\u00fdch cykl\u016f pomoc\u00ed sv\u00fdch prediktivn\u00edch model\u016f, p\u00ed\u0161e: \u201eNov\u00fd billboard spu\u0161t\u011bn\u00fd na Times Square v New Yorku bije na poplach ohledn\u011b rostouc\u00ed americk\u00e9 dluhov\u00e9 krize.\u00a0\u201eBoj\u00edte se st\u00e1tn\u00edho dluhu?\u00a0M\u011bli byste b\u00fdt.“\u00a0St\u00e1tn\u00ed dluh USA na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku p\u0159es\u00e1hl 34 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f a nad\u00e1le roste kv\u016fli masivn\u00edm v\u00fddajov\u00fdm bal\u00ed\u010dk\u016fm.\u00a0Nyn\u00ed, kdy\u017e se Amerika zav\u00e1zala financovat dv\u011b rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 v\u00e1lky a v\u00edce ne\u017e 7,2 milion\u016f nov\u00fdch migrant\u016f, bude Amerika i nad\u00e1le klesat hloub\u011bji do d\u00edry.<\/span><\/p>\n

Armstrong poukazuje na jasn\u00fd rozpor ve zp\u016fsobu jedn\u00e1n\u00ed americk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy.\u00a0Zat\u00edmco re\u00e1ln\u00e1 ekonomika jde stranou, ministerstvo zahrani\u010d\u00ed nad\u00e1le rozd\u00e1v\u00e1 miliardov\u00e9 bonusy na podporu z\u00e1stupn\u00fdch v\u00e1lek:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201ePr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd \u010dlov\u011bk si neuv\u011bdomuje, \u017ee tyto \u201ebezplatn\u00e9\u201c bal\u00ed\u010dky pomoci Ukrajin\u011b, Izraeli, Tchaj-wanu, migrant\u016fm, klimatick\u00fdm zm\u011bn\u00e1m atd. jsou na \u00fakor americk\u00fdch da\u0148ov\u00fdch poplatn\u00edk\u016f.\u00a0Za v\u0161echna tato opat\u0159en\u00ed plat\u00edte.\u00a0Vl\u00e1da zv\u00fd\u0161ila a bude zvy\u0161ovat dan\u011b, aby mohla financovat tato fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed, ale nikdy nez\u00edsk\u00e1 dostatek p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f od lid\u00ed na pokryt\u00ed jejich v\u00fddaj\u016f.<\/em><\/p>\n

N\u011bkdo by samoz\u0159ejm\u011b mohl nam\u00edtnout, \u017ee Armstrong je zaujat\u00fd pozorovatel.\u00a0Obra\u0165me se tedy na ty, kte\u0159\u00ed vl\u00e1dnou americk\u00e9mu finan\u010dn\u00edmu establishmentu, na guvern\u00e9ra Fedu Jerome Powella: \u201eZ dlouhodob\u00e9ho hlediska jsou USA na neudr\u017eiteln\u00e9 fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed cest\u011b.\u00a0Americk\u00e1 feder\u00e1ln\u00ed vl\u00e1da je na neudr\u017eiteln\u00e9 fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed cest\u011b a to jen znamen\u00e1, \u017ee dluh roste rychleji ne\u017e ekonomika.\u00a0Powell nakonec varoval a pozd\u011bji dodal: \u201eVe skute\u010dnosti si p\u016fj\u010dujeme od budouc\u00edch generac\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jakkoli neokonzervativn\u00ed\/sionisti\u010dt\u00ed ideologov\u00e9 jako Robert Kagan p\u00ed\u0161\u00ed o jedine\u010dn\u00e9 nevyhnutelnosti americk\u00e9ho sv\u011btov\u00e9ho \u0159\u00e1du, mezi obyvatelstvem USA je jasn\u00fd pocit, \u017ee tato zem\u011b nem\u00e1 budoucnost.\u00a0Dokazuje to situace velk\u00fdch americk\u00fdch m\u011bst, neschopn\u00fdch pokr\u00fdt sv\u00e9 n\u00e1klady a prim\u00e1rn\u00ed slu\u017eby soci\u00e1ln\u00ed pomoci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Studie Truth in Accounting (TIA) odhalila, \u017ee 70 % nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch americk\u00fdch m\u011bst se ve fisk\u00e1ln\u00edm roce 2022 dostalo do deficitu. Ze 75 studovan\u00fdch m\u011bst 53 jednodu\u0161e nem\u011blo finan\u010dn\u00ed prost\u0159edky na zaplacen\u00ed sv\u00fdch \u00fa\u010dt\u016f.\u00a0Studie zjistila, \u017ee celkov\u00fd dluh mezi 75 m\u011bsty dos\u00e1hl 288 miliard dolar\u016f a navzdory sd\u00edlen\u00fdm aktiv\u016fm ve v\u00fd\u0161i 307,4 miliardy dolar\u016f m\u011bla m\u011bsta 595,3 miliardy dolar\u016f v nefinancovan\u00fdch penzijn\u00edch pl\u00e1nech.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u016fchody a zdravotn\u00ed p\u00e9\u010de byly hlavn\u00edmi probl\u00e9my zat\u011b\u017euj\u00edc\u00edmi americk\u00e1 m\u011bsta dlouho p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e Washington po\u017eadoval od da\u0148ov\u00fdch poplatn\u00edk\u016f, aby financovali 7+ milion\u016f nov\u00fdch neleg\u00e1ln\u00edch obyvatel.\u00a0Jak zpr\u00e1va poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1: \u201eNejb\u011b\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00edm \u00fa\u010detn\u00edm trikem, kter\u00fd m\u011bsta pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed k podhodnocen\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f, nen\u00ed zahrnut\u00ed skute\u010dn\u00fdch kompenza\u010dn\u00edch n\u00e1klad\u016f.\u00a0M\u011bsta poskytuj\u00ed zam\u011bstnanc\u016fm platy a zam\u011bstnaneck\u00e9 v\u00fdhody, jako je zdravotn\u00ed p\u00e9\u010de, \u017eivotn\u00ed poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed a penze.\u00a0Zat\u00edmco penze a dal\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1klady po skon\u010den\u00ed pracovn\u00edho pom\u011bru, jako je zdravotn\u00ed p\u00e9\u010de, nebudou vypl\u00e1ceny, dokud zam\u011bstnanci neodejdou, st\u00e1le p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed kompenza\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1klady z\u00edskan\u00e9 a vynalo\u017een\u00e9 b\u011bhem jejich funk\u010dn\u00edho obdob\u00ed.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n

Volebn\u00ed kampa\u0148, kter\u00e1 skon\u010d\u00ed v prvn\u00edm listopadov\u00e9m t\u00fddnu, z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 v pozad\u00ed.\u00a0Trump a Biden jsou dv\u011b strany t\u00e9\u017ee mince.\u00a0Krize ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech je mnohem vrstevnat\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a hlub\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e by se mohlo zd\u00e1t ze surrealistick\u00e9ho soupe\u0159en\u00ed mezi dv\u011bma star\u0161\u00edmi uchaze\u010di.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je velmi vysok\u00e9 riziko, \u017ee Evropa v\u017edy zaplat\u00ed n\u00e1klady na tyto posledn\u00ed zbytky americk\u00e9ho imperialismu.\u00a0Proto\u017ee vojensk\u00e1 pozice Washingtonu na hork\u00fdch front\u00e1ch geopolitiky, od st\u0159edn\u00ed Evropy po Rud\u00e9 mo\u0159e, m\u00e1 velmi specifickou konotaci: tla\u010dit vp\u0159ed spojence EU, pokusit se definitivn\u011b zp\u0159etrhat vazby mezi dv\u011bma periferiemi Euroasijsk\u00e9ho srdce.\u00a0Mo\u017en\u00e1 je to jen n\u00e1hoda, ale takhle vypuknou sv\u011btov\u00e9 konflikty.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Autor: <\/span>Piero Messina<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Finan\u010dn\u00ed analytici to ji\u017e naz\u00fdvaj\u00ed b\u0159eznov\u00e9 \u0161\u00edlenstv\u00ed.\u00a0V pond\u011bl\u00ed 11. b\u0159ezna objev\u00edme velk\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd blaf americk\u00e9ho…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":16604,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[503,59,371,276],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49006"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49006"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49006\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16604"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49006"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49006"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49006"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}