{"id":48820,"date":"2024-03-08T00:40:58","date_gmt":"2024-03-07T23:40:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=48820"},"modified":"2024-03-07T10:10:06","modified_gmt":"2024-03-07T09:10:06","slug":"andrew-korybko-castecne-vyhoveni-protiruskym-pozadavkum-izraele-riskuje-zniceni-vztahu-s-moskvou","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/03\/08\/andrew-korybko-castecne-vyhoveni-protiruskym-pozadavkum-izraele-riskuje-zniceni-vztahu-s-moskvou\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: \u010c\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9 vyhov\u011bn\u00ed protirusk\u00fdm po\u017eadavk\u016fm Izraele riskuje zni\u010den\u00ed vztah\u016f s Moskvou"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Izrael nepl\u00e1nuje vyslat na Ukrajinu syst\u00e9my v\u010dasn\u00e9ho varov\u00e1n\u00ed ze solidarity, ale ve skute\u010dnosti se sna\u017e\u00ed z\u00edskat v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edze\u0148 USA, proto\u017ee jeho v\u00e1lka s Ham\u00e1sem sp\u011bje ke konci, a\u010dkoli Tel Aviv sv\u00e9 skute\u010dn\u00e9 z\u00e1m\u011bry maskuje jako sign\u00e1l nespokojenosti s Moskvou, balancov\u00e1n\u00ed mezi Izraelem a Ham\u00e1sem.<\/strong><\/p>\n

St\u00e1l\u00fd p\u0159edstavitel Izraele p\u0159i OSN koncem minul\u00e9ho m\u011bs\u00edce\u00a0ozn\u00e1mil\u00a0<\/a>, \u017ee jeho zem\u011b \u201epracuje na tom, aby Ukrajin\u011b poskytla syst\u00e9my v\u010dasn\u00e9ho varov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c, na\u010de\u017e n\u00e1sledoval tvrd\u00fd z\u00e1konod\u00e1rce, kter\u00fd\u00a0sl\u00edbil\u00a0<\/a>, \u017ee \u201eIzrael zaujme agresivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed postoj v\u016f\u010di Rusku\u201c.\u00a0Stalo se tak pot\u00e9, co nov\u00fd izraelsk\u00fd velvyslanec v Rusku\u00a0vyvolal na za\u010d\u00e1tku \u00fanora skand\u00e1l\u00a0<\/a>nespr\u00e1vn\u00fdm v\u00fdkladem rusk\u00e9 region\u00e1ln\u00ed politiky, o \u010dem\u017e se \u010dten\u00e1\u0159i mohou dozv\u011bd\u011bt v\u00edce v t\u00e9to anal\u00fdze\u00a0zde\u00a0<\/a>, kter\u00e1 obsahuje hypertextov\u00e9 odkazy na t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 dv\u011b des\u00edtky relevantn\u00edch \u010dl\u00e1nk\u016f o n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Mluv\u010d\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho ministerstva zahrani\u010d\u00ed Maria Zacharovov\u00e1 na tento v\u00fdvoj reagovala b\u011bdov\u00e1n\u00edm \u201e\u00a0<\/a>Skute\u010dnost, \u017ee lid\u00e9 v regionu, zejm\u00e9na izrael\u0161t\u00ed politici, vn\u00edmaj\u00ed a n\u00e1sleduj\u00ed cestu, kterou jim vnucuj\u00ed \u201ev\u00fdjime\u010dn\u00ed\u201c \u2013 USA\u201c, kter\u00e1 \u201evyhrocuje a sbli\u017euje\u201c tato katastrofick\u00e1 situace v regionu, vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee m\u011bla d\u011bsivou dynamiku, to vyvolala.“ A\u010dkoli je Izrael st\u00e1le pr\u00e1vn\u011b Ruskem pova\u017eov\u00e1n za \u201ep\u0159\u00e1telskou\u201c zemi, m\u016f\u017ee se to brzy zm\u011bnit v z\u00e1vislosti na tom, co ud\u011bl\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Pokud se v\u0161ak zdr\u017e\u00ed pos\u00edl\u00e1n\u00ed \u00fato\u010dn\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, nemus\u00ed se na tento seznam dostat. I kdyby ano, pak by to Rusko mohlo zat\u00edm dr\u017eet mimo, aby prozkoumalo, zda diplomacie m\u016f\u017ee vy\u00fastit v dosa\u017een\u00ed \u201enov\u00e9ho norm\u00e1lu\u201c mezi nimi, ne\u017e se nap\u011bt\u00ed vymkne kontrole, podobn\u011b jako d\u016fvod, pro\u010d Rusko neozna\u010dilo Turecko navzdory tomu, \u017ee vyslalo na Ukrajinu \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9 drony. Vztahy s Ankarou z\u016fstaly z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti zvl\u00e1dnuteln\u00e9 a vz\u00e1jemn\u011b v\u00fdhodn\u00e9,\u00a0<\/a>tak\u017ee vazby s Tel Avivem by mohly skon\u010dit stejn\u011b.<\/p>\n

Nicm\u00e9n\u011b tento posun v p\u0159\u00edstupu Izraele k\u00a0z\u00e1stupn\u00e9\u00a0<\/a>v\u00e1lce NATO\u00a0<\/a>proti Rusku prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm Ukrajiny \u2013 co\u017e je ji\u017e nevyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00e1, ale omezen\u00e1 hork\u00e1 v\u00e1lka pot\u00e9, co n\u011bmeck\u00fd kancl\u00e9\u0159 Olaf Scholz\u00a0ne\u00famysln\u011b odhalil\u00a0<\/a>, \u017ee se tam tajn\u011b nach\u00e1zej\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed jednotky \u2013 se ned\u011bl\u00e1 ze solidarity s Kyjevem. Sp\u00ed\u0161e to povrchn\u011b vypad\u00e1 kv\u016fli nelibosti Izraele s rusk\u00fdm balancov\u00e1n\u00edm mezi n\u00edm a Hamasem, ale ve skute\u010dnosti jde o pokus Tel Avivu z\u00edskat p\u0159\u00edze\u0148 Washingtonu, kdy\u017e jeho v\u00e1lka s Hamasem dosp\u011bje ke konci.<\/p>\n

Dv\u011b podrobn\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy z americk\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00ed z konce listopadu lze interpretovat jako v\u00fdvoj n\u00e1tlakov\u00e9 kampan\u011b Bidenovy administrativy proti premi\u00e9rovi Benjaminu \u201eBibi\u201c Netanjahuovi.\u00a0The\u00a0Washington Post\u00a0<\/a>informoval sv\u00e9 publikum, jak nechal Katar financovat Ham\u00e1s, zat\u00edmco\u00a0New York Times\u00a0<\/a>tvrdil, \u017ee Izrael \u00fadajn\u011b v\u011bd\u011bl o pl\u00e1nech Hamasu na tajn\u00fd \u00fatok v\u00edce ne\u017e rok p\u0159ed jeho\u00a0\u00fatokem na za\u010d\u00e1tku \u0159\u00edjna\u00a0<\/a>.\u00a0Oboj\u00ed je zatracuj\u00edc\u00ed a mohlo by podn\u00edtit dal\u0161\u00ed protesty proti n\u011bmu, jakmile konflikt skon\u010d\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Co se t\u00fd\u010de, Bidenova administrativa byla ji\u017e zapletena do bezprecedentn\u00edch celon\u00e1rodn\u00edch protest\u016f, kter\u00e9 ot\u0159\u00e1sly Izraelem loni na ja\u0159e a kter\u00e9 zde byly analyzov\u00e1ny\u00a0<\/a>jako motivovan\u00e9 ideologickou opozic\u00ed jeho vl\u00e1dnouc\u00edch liber\u00e1ln\u011b-globalist\u016f proti konzervativn\u011b-nacionalistick\u00e9 vl\u00e1d\u011b samozvan\u00e9ho \u017didovsk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu.\u00a0V o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed opakov\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011bchto ud\u00e1lost\u00ed po uzav\u0159en\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edho p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed p\u0159ed ramad\u00e1nem je velmi mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee se Bibi sna\u017eila zabr\u00e1nit v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmu vm\u011b\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed souhlasem s odesl\u00e1n\u00edm t\u011bchto syst\u00e9m\u016f na Ukrajinu.<\/p>\n

V jeho mysli by tento zoufal\u00fd krok mohl v tomto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i potenci\u00e1ln\u011b zm\u00edrnit n\u011bkter\u00e9 o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 tlaky ze strany ob\u010dan\u016f t\u00edm, \u017ee ovlivn\u00ed USA, aby uplatnily v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed m\u00edru sebeovl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed t\u00edm, \u017ee se nebudou tolik zapojovat do \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9ho nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edho kola nepokoj\u016f o barevn\u00e9\u00a0revoluci\u00a0<\/a>.\u00a0Ve\u0159ejnou z\u00e1minkou, pod kterou jsou tyto syst\u00e9my v\u010dasn\u00e9ho varov\u00e1n\u00ed vys\u00edl\u00e1ny, je nelibost Izraele s rusk\u00fdm balancov\u00e1n\u00edm mezi n\u00edm a Hamasem, aby odvr\u00e1til kontrolu od jeho skute\u010dn\u00fdch motiv\u016f.<\/p>\n

Koneckonc\u016f, nen\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bryhodn\u00e9 tvrzen\u00ed, \u017ee Rusko podporovalo tajn\u00fd \u00fatok Hamasu, a\u0165 u\u017e vojensky nebo politicky.\u00a0Kreml to opakovan\u011b odsoudil jako teroristick\u00fd \u010din, ale v reakci tak\u00e9 odsoudil kolektivn\u00ed trest\u00e1n\u00ed Palestinc\u016f Izraelem.\u00a0Moskevsk\u00e9 hostov\u00e1n\u00ed politick\u00e9ho k\u0159\u00eddla Ham\u00e1su m\u00e1 za c\u00edl pouze o\u017eiven\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00fdch rozhovor\u016f a zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed propu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed rukojm\u00edch, jejich\u017e posledn\u00ed \u00fakol \u201eje pod osobn\u00ed kontrolou prezidenta Rusk\u00e9 federace\u201c\u00a0podle sd\u011blen\u00ed vysok\u00e9ho diplomata <\/a>.<\/p>\n

Jakkoli by se tato politika mohla nel\u00edbit Izraeli kv\u016fli jeho p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed, aby se v\u0161echny zem\u011b postavily na jeho stranu p\u0159ed Ham\u00e1sem na z\u00e1klad\u011b volby nulov\u00e9ho sou\u010dtu, ke kter\u00e9 na n\u011b vyv\u00edjel n\u00e1tlak, mohlo by to b\u00fdt i nad\u00e1le p\u0159ed\u00e1v\u00e1no konven\u010dn\u00edmi diplomatick\u00fdmi prost\u0159edky nam\u00edsto eskalace z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed jednostrann\u00fdm zas\u00edl\u00e1n\u00edm takov\u00e9 syst\u00e9my do Kyjeva.\u00a0D\u016fvod, pro\u010d je izraelsk\u00fd v\u00fdvoz tohoto za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed v\u010dasn\u00e9ho varov\u00e1n\u00ed do Ruska tak znepokojuj\u00edc\u00ed, je ten, \u017ee by to mohlo v\u00e9st k \u201epl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed mis\u00ed\u201c, kdy brzy n\u00e1sleduj\u00ed syst\u00e9my protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany a mo\u017en\u00e1 i \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9 zbran\u011b.<\/p>\n

Jak\u00e9koli v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 zlep\u0161en\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany podporovan\u00e9 Izraelem by mohlo v\u00e9st k symetrick\u00e9mu zlep\u0161en\u00ed S\u00fdrie podporovan\u00e9 Ruskem, a\u010dkoli tato anal\u00fdza\u00a0tvrd\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>, \u017ee Moskva nebude riskovat \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1lku, aby zastavila st\u00e1le \u010dast\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u00fatoky Tel Avivu na Dama\u0161ek.\u00a0V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by tito dva mohli sklouznout do nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9ho bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho dilematu, proto\u017ee by se ka\u017ed\u00fd mohl obvinit z toho, \u017ee br\u00e1n\u00ed jejich \u00fader\u016fm proti tomu, co pova\u017euj\u00ed za legitimn\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 c\u00edle v t\u011bchto sousedn\u00edch zem\u00edch.<\/p>\n

D\u016fsledky by mohly v\u00e9st k tomu, \u017ee Rusko a Izrael zes\u00edl\u00ed sv\u00e9 \u00fadery na Ukrajin\u011b a v S\u00fdrii, aby \u00fa\u010dinn\u011bji prolomily tamn\u00ed novou obranu.\u00a0To nezm\u011bn\u00ed\u00a0vojensko-strategickou dynamiku ukrajinsk\u00e9ho konfliktu,\u00a0<\/a>ale mohlo by riskovat zhor\u0161en\u00ed z\u00e1padoasijsk\u00e9 krize, pokud se \u00cdr\u00e1n bude c\u00edtit dostate\u010dn\u011b pohodln\u011b na to, aby za\u00fato\u010dil na Izrael ze S\u00fdrie pod de\u0161tn\u00edkem dodan\u00e9ho Ruskem.\u00a0V takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by Izrael mohl bu\u010f reagovat pozemn\u00ed operac\u00ed, nebo by ji mohl dokonce zah\u00e1jit preventivn\u011b.<\/p>\n

Z Bibiho vlastn\u00ed politick\u00e9 perspektivy by roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed v\u00e1lky na S\u00fdrii v jak\u00e9koli kapacit\u011b pozemn\u00edch nebo speci\u00e1ln\u00edch sil mohlo uchovat z\u00e1padoasijskou krizi k jeho dom\u00e1c\u00edmu i mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edmu prosp\u011bchu. Na dom\u00e1c\u00ed front\u011b bude pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b schopen vyu\u017e\u00edt tento krok k tomu, aby z\u016fstal u moci a vyhnul se (mo\u017en\u00e1 politicky motivovan\u00fdm) obvin\u011bn\u00edm z korupce, zat\u00edmco zahrani\u010dn\u00ed by mohli vid\u011bt, jak USA zm\u00edr\u0148uj\u00ed potenci\u00e1ln\u011b hroz\u00edc\u00ed tlak barevn\u00e9 revoluce na n\u011bj,\u00a0 kv\u016fli Izraeli a jejich spole\u010dn\u00fdch z\u00e1jm\u016f obsahuj\u00edc\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1n v S\u00fdrii<\/p>\n

Nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, zda tak daleko v\u0161echno rozehr\u00e1l, a i kdyby ano, nelze pova\u017eovat za samoz\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee se ud\u00e1losti budou vyv\u00edjet t\u00edmto sm\u011brem a nebudou kompenzov\u00e1ny n\u011bkter\u00fdmi dosud nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00fdmi prom\u011bnn\u00fdmi.\u00a0Bez ohledu na to, jak\u00e9 jsou jeho pl\u00e1ny a jak dalece se d\u00edv\u00e1 do budoucnosti, faktem je, \u017ee \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9 dodr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed protirusk\u00fdch po\u017eadavk\u016f Izraelem riskuje zni\u010den\u00ed vztah\u016f s Moskvou, a to by se mohlo rychle projevit v cel\u00e9 z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asii v z\u00e1vislosti na trajektorii sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e.<\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Izrael nepl\u00e1nuje vyslat na Ukrajinu syst\u00e9my v\u010dasn\u00e9ho varov\u00e1n\u00ed ze solidarity, ale ve skute\u010dnosti se sna\u017e\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":48821,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,107,22,814],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48820"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48820"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48820\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":48822,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48820\/revisions\/48822"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/48821"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48820"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48820"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48820"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}