{"id":48155,"date":"2024-02-28T08:43:26","date_gmt":"2024-02-28T07:43:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=48155"},"modified":"2024-02-28T08:43:26","modified_gmt":"2024-02-28T07:43:26","slug":"thomas-roper-prubeh-fronty-ve-treti-svetove-valce-se-vyjasnuje","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/02\/28\/thomas-roper-prubeh-fronty-ve-treti-svetove-valce-se-vyjasnuje\/","title":{"rendered":"Thomas R\u00f6per: Pr\u016fb\u011bh fronty ve t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce se vyjas\u0148uje"},"content":{"rendered":"
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V sou\u010dasnosti je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee konflikty na Ukrajin\u011b a na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b maj\u00ed potenci\u00e1l st\u00e1t se jedn\u00edm velk\u00fdm konfliktem.\u00a0Fronty v tomto konfliktu jsou st\u00e1le jasn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

To, \u017ee od \u00fanora 2022, tedy od eskalace na Ukrajin\u011b a prvn\u00edch sank\u010dn\u00edch bal\u00ed\u010dk\u016f ze Z\u00e1padu, zast\u00e1v\u00e1m n\u00e1zor, \u017ee to je u\u017e t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka, nen\u00ed novinka, proto\u017ee jsem to \u010dasto ve\u0159ejn\u011b \u0159\u00edkal. Chyb\u00ed u\u017e jen p\u0159\u00edm\u00e1 konfrontace mezi NATO a Ruskem, proto\u017ee ani jedna strana nechce jadernou v\u00e1lku.\u00a0Z\u00e1pad pod veden\u00edm USA v\u0161ak bojuje proti Rusku za pou\u017eit\u00ed v\u0161ech ekonomick\u00fdch, diplomatick\u00fdch, propagandistick\u00fdch a vojensk\u00fdch prost\u0159edk\u016f, krom\u011b pou\u017eit\u00ed vlastn\u00edch voj\u00e1k\u016f.\u00a0Je to v\u00e1lka mezi Z\u00e1padem a Ruskem, kter\u00e1 neskon\u010d\u00ed ukon\u010den\u00edm boj\u016f na Ukrajin\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Form\u00e1ln\u011b spolu konflikty na Ukrajin\u011b a v Gaze nesouvis\u00ed, ale frontov\u00e9 linie mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed politiky se v obou konfliktech st\u00e1le v\u00edce podobaj\u00ed, a proto maj\u00ed potenci\u00e1l splynout v jeden velk\u00fd konflikt, jako tomu bylo ve 2. sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce. nap\u0159. kdy\u017e se od konce roku 1941 konflikty v Evrop\u011b a Asii spojily v jednu velkou sv\u011btovou v\u00e1lku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kolektivn\u00ed z\u00e1pad a glob\u00e1ln\u00ed jih<\/span><\/h3>\n

Na Ukrajin\u011b je v\u011bc zcela jasn\u00e1: kolektivn\u00ed Z\u00e1pad vede v\u00e1lku na ukrajinsk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed proti Rusku, kter\u00e9 je v\u00edcem\u00e9n\u011b ofici\u00e1ln\u011b podporov\u00e1no \u010c\u00ednou, Severn\u00ed Koreou a \u00cdr\u00e1nem.\u00a0Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed jih by r\u00e1d z\u016fstal neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed, ale Z\u00e1pad na n\u011bj tla\u010d\u00ed, aby si vybral stranu.\u00a0A proto\u017ee Rusko a \u010c\u00edna nediktuj\u00ed jin\u00fdm zem\u00edm, jak\u00e9 \u201ehodnoty\u201c nebo politick\u00e9 a ekonomick\u00e9 syst\u00e9my by m\u011bly m\u00edt, a proto\u017ee ob\u011b zem\u011b neprov\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed neokoloni\u00e1ln\u00ed politiku na rozd\u00edl od Z\u00e1padu, t\u00edm se glob\u00e1ln\u00ed Jih p\u0159ikl\u00e1n\u00ed k Rusku a ne k Z\u00e1padu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mimochodem, u\u017e to pochopil i \u0161\u00e9f diplomacie EU Borrell, jak uk\u00e1zal \u010dl\u00e1nek,<\/span><\/a>\u00a0kter\u00fd ned\u00e1vno napsal\u00a0.\u00a0Borrell v n\u011bm p\u0159ipustil, \u017ee \u00e9ra z\u00e1padn\u00ed dominance skon\u010dila a \u017ee Z\u00e1pad ztr\u00e1c\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed jih ve prosp\u011bch Ruska, proto Borrell rozs\u00e1hle hled\u00e1 strategii proti tomuto trendu.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00e1lka v Gaze m\u00e1 nyn\u00ed zhruba stejn\u00e9 frontov\u00e9 linie.\u00a0Z\u00e1pad veden\u00fd USA podporuje Izrael, zat\u00edmco mnoho zem\u00ed na glob\u00e1ln\u00edm jihu obvi\u0148uje Izrael z genocidy proti Palestinc\u016fm.\u00a0A cynick\u00fd dvoj\u00ed standard Z\u00e1padu v tomto konfliktu \u017eene glob\u00e1ln\u00ed Jih d\u00e1le do n\u00e1ru\u010de Ruska a \u010c\u00edny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusko a Izrael<\/span><\/h3>\n

Vztah mezi Izraelem a Ruskem se zd\u00e1l b\u00fdt dlouho dobr\u00fd, a to i p\u0159es rozd\u00edln\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy nap\u0159\u00edklad v S\u00fdrii.\u00a0V z\u00e1kulis\u00ed to ale z\u0159ejm\u011b u\u017e n\u011bjakou dobu vypad\u00e1 jinak, proto\u017ee Izraeli vad\u00ed dobr\u00e9 vztahy Ruska s \u00cdr\u00e1nem, zat\u00edmco Rusko nem\u00e1 v\u016fbec pochopen\u00ed pro ileg\u00e1ln\u00ed izraelsk\u00e9 bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho spojence S\u00fdrie.\u00a0A po zah\u00e1jen\u00ed rusk\u00e9 operace na Ukrajin\u011b bylo jen m\u00e1lo zpr\u00e1v o kontaktech mezi Ruskem a Izraelem.<\/span><\/p>\n

V polovin\u011b \u0159\u00edjna 2023 bylo\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>ozn\u00e1meno<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed izrael\u0161t\u00ed voj\u00e1ci z\u0159ejm\u011b bojuj\u00ed proti Rusku na Ukrajin\u011b.\u00a0Pokud je to pravda, vztah mezi Ruskem a Izraelem byl pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b ji\u017e n\u011bjakou dobu ledov\u00fd, i kdy\u017e to ani jeden z nich ve\u0159ejn\u011b neuk\u00e1zal a nesd\u011blil sv\u016fj postoj.<\/span><\/p>\n

Se za\u010d\u00e1tkem v\u00e1lky v Gaze se to zm\u011bnilo a ze strany Izraele do\u0161lo k divok\u00fdm ur\u00e1\u017ek\u00e1m a nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed v\u016f\u010di Rusku, proto\u017ee rusk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>od za\u010d\u00e1tku kritizovala brut\u00e1ln\u00ed \u010diny Izraele<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u00a0a nakonec d\u016frazn\u011b volala po \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed dvou st\u00e1t\u016f.\u00a0Rusko tradi\u010dn\u011b kritizuje izraelskou palestinskou politiku a pr\u00e1v\u011b na t\u00e9to chybn\u00e9 linii politick\u00fdch z\u00e1jm\u016f vypukl v \u0159\u00edjnu spor mezi Izraelem a Ruskem a rusk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>st\u00e1le v\u00edce<\/span><\/a>\u00a0kritizuje izraelsk\u00e9 akce proti Palestinc\u016fm .<\/span><\/p>\n

Mezit\u00edm si Izrael a Rusko vym\u011bnily ur\u00e1\u017eky na p\u016fd\u011b OSN.\u00a0<\/span>21. \u00fanora Rusko prohl\u00e1silo,<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u017ee \u201eneakceptuje izraelskou logiku ospravedl\u0148ovat n\u00e1sil\u00ed v Gaze\u201c, na\u010de\u017e Izrael p\u0159irovnal Rusko k tomu, co pova\u017euje za teroristick\u00e9 Ham\u00e1s.\u00a0Rusko pot\u00e9 postavilo Izrael na rove\u0148 \u2013 v jeho o\u010d\u00edch nacistickou \u2013 Ukrajinu a prohl\u00e1silo, \u017ee\u00a0<\/span>\u201eIzrael a Ukrajina vedou boj proti lidskosti<\/span><\/a>\u00a0\u201c .\u00a0Vztah mezi t\u011bmi dv\u011bma se nemohl o moc zhor\u0161it.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bojuj\u00edc\u00ed zem\u011b postupuj\u00ed spole\u010dn\u011b<\/span><\/h3>\n

Skute\u010dnost, \u017ee Izrael nyn\u00ed ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee\u00a0<\/span>Ukrajin\u011b poprv\u00e9 dod\u00e1 vojenskou techniku,<\/span><\/a>\u00a0ukazuje, \u017ee roztr\u017eka mezi Ruskem a Izraelem mus\u00ed b\u00fdt velmi hlubok\u00e1.\u00a0K tomu se p\u0159idala dobr\u00e1 rusk\u00e1 spolupr\u00e1ce s \u00fahlavn\u00edm nep\u0159\u00edtelem Izraele, \u00cdr\u00e1nem, a zv\u011bsti, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n dod\u00e1 Rusku drony a rakety.<\/span><\/p>\n

H\u00fas\u00edov\u00e9 v Jemenu vyhl\u00e1sili v\u00e1lku Izraeli a navzdory \u00fatok\u016fm lod\u00ed NATO ost\u0159eluj\u00ed v Rud\u00e9m mo\u0159i obchodn\u00ed lod\u011b spojen\u00e9 s Izraelem.\u00a0A nyn\u00ed tak\u00e9 aktivn\u011b st\u0159\u00edlej\u00ed na obchodn\u00ed lod\u011b ze v\u0161ech zem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 bombarduj\u00ed Jemen.\u00a0Dokonce sest\u0159elili drah\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>americk\u00e9 drony<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nebylo \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm p\u0159ekvapen\u00edm, \u017ee Rusko a Jemen\u00a0<\/span>se nyn\u00ed dohodly<\/span><\/a>\u00a0na vz\u00e1jemn\u00fdch n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bv\u00e1ch technick\u00fdch skupin , aby projednaly spolupr\u00e1ci v oblasti nerostn\u00fdch surovin.\u00a0Na tiskov\u00e9 konferenci po jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s rusk\u00fdm ministrem zahrani\u010d\u00ed Sergejem Lavrovem to prohl\u00e1sil jemensk\u00fd premi\u00e9r a ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Ahmed Awad bin Mubarak.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je vid\u011bt, \u017ee zem\u011b bojuj\u00edc\u00ed v konfliktech se sbli\u017euj\u00ed.\u00a0I kdy\u017e spolu konflikty form\u00e1ln\u011b nemaj\u00ed nic spole\u010dn\u00e9ho, \u200b\u200bmohou se rozvinout ve velk\u00fd konflikt.<\/span><\/p>\n

A\u010dkoli je Turecko form\u00e1ln\u011b v NATO, z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 v ukrajinsk\u00e9m konfliktu neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span>Turecko je jedn\u00edm z nejhlasit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch kritik\u016f izraelsk\u00fdch akc\u00ed v Gaze a po\u017eaduje<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, aby osoby odpov\u011bdn\u00e9 za v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 zlo\u010diny v Izraeli byli odsouzeni Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edm trestn\u00edm soudem\u00a0, co\u017e z Turecka ned\u011bl\u00e1 zemi, kter\u00e1 stoj\u00ed na stran\u011b Z\u00e1padu, ale – pokud ano si musel vybrat stranu – pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b by se Turecko postavilo na stranu Ruska.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bitva o Indii<\/span><\/h3>\n

Pokud i USA budou na Tchaj-wanu n\u00e1sledovat ukrajinsk\u00fd model a budou sv\u00e1d\u011bt Tchaj-wan k provokac\u00edm proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b, konflikt by se mohl roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it i do Asie.\u00a0K tomu se p\u0159id\u00e1v\u00e1 st\u00e1le napjat\u011bj\u0161\u00ed situace na Korejsk\u00e9m poloostrov\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee Indie soupe\u0159\u00ed s \u010c\u00ednou a m\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>dobr\u00e9 vztahy s Tchaj-wanem<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, eskalace ohledn\u011b Tchaj-wanu by mohla zatla\u010dit Indii do n\u00e1ru\u010de Z\u00e1padu veden\u00e9ho USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Indie se sna\u017e\u00ed zachovat svou neutralitu a ve skute\u010dnosti m\u00e1 s Ruskem v\u00fdborn\u00e9 vztahy, kter\u00e9 se datuj\u00ed od zalo\u017een\u00ed indick\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu po druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce.\u00a0Indie se spol\u00e9hala t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u00fdhradn\u011b na rusk\u00e9 zbran\u011b, ale nyn\u00ed se nechala p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit USA, aby diverzifikovala sv\u016fj arzen\u00e1l.\u00a0Rozchod s Ruskem si ale nep\u0159eje ani Indie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud v\u0161ak konflikty eskaluj\u00ed a dokonce se roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed do Asie, Indie si mo\u017en\u00e1 bude muset vybrat stranu.\u00a0A ot\u00e1zka je, jak\u00e1 by to byla.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dalo by se o tom napsat mnohem v\u00edce, ale mysl\u00edm, \u017ee u\u017e je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee jsme pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b st\u00e1le na sam\u00e9m za\u010d\u00e1tku t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.\u00a0Konfrontace budou nad\u00e1le nar\u016fstat a sv\u011bt bude v nejlep\u0161\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u010delit jen neklidn\u00fdm \u010das\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Thomas R\u00f6per<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

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V sou\u010dasnosti je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee konflikty na Ukrajin\u011b a na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b maj\u00ed potenci\u00e1l st\u00e1t…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":38616,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,276,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48155"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48155"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48155\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/38616"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48155"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48155"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48155"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}