{"id":48044,"date":"2024-02-27T00:45:59","date_gmt":"2024-02-26T23:45:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=48044"},"modified":"2024-02-26T19:21:37","modified_gmt":"2024-02-26T18:21:37","slug":"jiri-vyvadil-necekejte-od-sankci-ze-neco-uspesne-zmeni","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/02\/27\/jiri-vyvadil-necekejte-od-sankci-ze-neco-uspesne-zmeni\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u0159\u00ed Vyvadil: Ne\u010dekejte od sankc\u00ed, \u017ee n\u011bco \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b zm\u011bn\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Dlouho jsem \u010dekal na \u010dl\u00e1nek tohoto typu, kter\u00fd pop\u00ed\u0161e nesmyslnost p\u0159edstav, \u017ee sankce natrvalo zm\u011bn\u00ed chov\u00e1n\u00ed sankcionovan\u00e9ho. Kone\u010dn\u011b vid\u00edme to moment\u00e1ln\u011b na p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Ruska, kter\u00e9 a\u010d mohutn\u011b sankciovan\u00e9 za\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 a\u017e provokativn\u011b \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fd rozvoj, zat\u00edmco z\u00e1padn\u00ed st\u00e1ty, kter\u00e9 je vyd\u00e1vaj\u00ed, za\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed naopak dva trpk\u00e9 roky ekonomick\u00e9ho propadu. P\u0159ipojuji proto velmi zaj\u00edmav\u00fd text Ne\u010dekejte od sankc\u00ed, \u017ee n\u011bco \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b zm\u011bn\u00ed od Ivana Elanda publikovan\u00fd na str\u00e1nk\u00e1ch The American Conservative.<\/strong><\/p>\n

A\u010dkoliv po \u00fatoc\u00edch \u00cdr\u00e1nem podporovan\u00fdch skupin na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b jeden z poradc\u016f B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu tvrdil, \u017ee „extr\u00e9mn\u00ed sankce“ p\u0159i\u0161krtily \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd energetick\u00fd sektor,\u00a0vy\u0161et\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed\u00a0New York Times\u00a0<\/em>uvedlo, \u017ee zem\u011b st\u00e1le vyv\u00e1\u017e\u00ed ropu za miliardy dolar\u016f. Vy\u0161et\u0159ovac\u00ed zpr\u00e1va \u2013 dopln\u011bn\u00e1 o podstatn\u00e9 fotografick\u00e9 d\u016fkazy o obch\u00e1zen\u00ed sankc\u00ed ropn\u00fdmi tankery p\u0159iplouvaj\u00edc\u00edmi z \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edstav\u016f nebo p\u0159ekl\u00e1daj\u00edc\u00edmi ropu do jin\u00fdch tanker\u016f na mo\u0159i \u2013 d\u011bl\u00e1 velkou d\u00edru do p\u0159\u00edb\u011bhu B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu o efektivn\u00edm stup\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed tlaku na \u00cdr\u00e1n kv\u016fli \u00fatok\u016fm jeho z\u00e1stupc\u016f na americk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 aktivity v regionu.<\/p>\n

Den\u00edk The Times<\/em>\u00a0uvedl, \u017ee ke konci sankc\u00ed doch\u00e1z\u00ed u tanker\u016f, poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00fdch pro p\u0159\u00edpad odpov\u011bdnosti u americk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti, kter\u00e9 fal\u0161uj\u00ed svou GPS polohu vys\u00edl\u00e1n\u00edm fale\u0161n\u00fdch poloh p\u0159i vyzved\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed ropy v \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edstavech nebo p\u0159ev\u00e1d\u011bn\u00edm \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ropy do tanker\u016f jin\u00fdch zem\u00ed na mo\u0159i. Majitel\u00e9 lod\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed jsou ochotni poru\u0161it sankce, dostanou pr\u00e9mii ke sv\u00fdm b\u011b\u017en\u00fdm proviz\u00edm a dov\u00e1\u017eej\u00edc\u00ed zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 se rozhodnou je ignorovat \u2013 v tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u010c\u00edna \u2013 z\u00edskaj\u00ed ropu za ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed cenu ne\u017e obvykle.<\/p>\n

K podobn\u00e9mu vyh\u00fdb\u00e1n\u00ed se do\u0161lo p\u0159i pokusu omezit rusk\u00fd v\u00fdvoz ropy po invazi na Ukrajinu v roce 2022. V tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, proto\u017ee Rusko je tak velk\u00fdm producentem ropy, nebylo c\u00edlem zadusit ve\u0161ker\u00fd jeho v\u00fdvoz ropy \u2013 co\u017e by mohlo vy\u00fastit v trval\u00fd r\u016fst sv\u011btov\u00e9 ceny ropy, a t\u00edm ohrozit volebn\u00ed vyhl\u00eddky n\u011bkter\u00fdch z\u00e1padn\u00edch politik\u016f \u2013 ale vytvo\u0159it cenov\u00fd strop, pod kter\u00fdm by se mohla prod\u00e1vat pouze rusk\u00e1 ropa. Prosazov\u00e1n\u00ed tohoto re\u017eimu cenov\u00e9ho stropu je rovn\u011b\u017e obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9. Fal\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed polohy tanker\u016f a p\u0159epravy ropy na mo\u0159i m\u016f\u017ee tak\u00e9 pomoci skr\u00fdt p\u016fvod rusk\u00e9 ropy, aby se vyhnula cenov\u00e9mu stropu.\u00a0Den\u00edk The Times<\/em>\u00a0tak\u00e9 odhalil fal\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f sankcionovan\u00e9ho v\u00fdvozu venezuelsk\u00e9 ropy.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

A ekonomick\u00e9 sankce na v\u00fdvoz ropy nejsou jedin\u00e9, kter\u00fdmi lze opovrhovat. Sankce mohou b\u00fdt jednostrann\u011b uvaleny nebo multilater\u00e1ln\u011b vyhl\u00e1\u0161eny kartelem zem\u00ed. Pokud jedna zem\u011b uvaluj\u00edc\u00ed sankce nem\u00e1 monopol (je jedin\u00fdm prodejcem) nebo monopsoni\u00ed (je jedin\u00fdm kupuj\u00edc\u00edm \u2013 v takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by jednostrann\u00e9 sankce mohly podstatn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161it nebo sn\u00ed\u017eit cenu produktu, respektive po\u0161kodit c\u00edlovou zemi) \u2013 jednostrann\u00e9 sankce jsou obvykle pouze symbolick\u00e9, aby nazna\u010dily nespokojenost s c\u00edlem sankcionuj\u00edc\u00edho n\u00e1roda. P\u0159im\u011bt ostatn\u00ed zem\u011b, aby se p\u0159ipojily k sankc\u00edm a vytvo\u0159ily sank\u010dn\u00ed kartel \u2013 jak se o to obvykle pokou\u0161ej\u00ed Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty \u2013 m\u016f\u017ee zv\u00fd\u0161it cenov\u00e9 efekty, ale jen z\u0159\u00eddka m\u016f\u017ee c\u00edl zcela od\u0159\u00edznout od dovozu nebo v\u00fdvozu c\u00edlov\u00fdch produkt\u016f kv\u016fli technik\u00e1m vyh\u00fdb\u00e1n\u00ed se, v\u010detn\u011b t\u011bch v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00fdch.<\/p>\n

Koordinace a prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed multilater\u00e1ln\u00edch sankc\u00ed trv\u00e1 d\u00e9le ne\u017e jednostrann\u00e9 sankce a mohou se na chv\u00edli zakousnout, ale pak se v\u011bt\u0161ina c\u00edlov\u00fdch zem\u00ed \u010dasem nau\u010d\u00ed zp\u016fsoby, jak se jim v podstat\u011b vyhnout. Sankce proti Rusku za jeho invazi (a\u00a0pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b i ty, kter\u00e9 budou uvaleny za smrt disidenta Alexeje Navaln\u00e9ho) a na \u00cdr\u00e1n a Venezuelu za chov\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm nel\u00edb\u00ed, m\u011bly ur\u010dit\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd dopad, ale jejich \u00fasp\u011bch nelze hodnotit pouze na z\u00e1klad\u011b kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 nebo dlouhodob\u00e9 zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 bolesti. Ve skute\u010dnosti radik\u00e1ln\u011b nezm\u011bnily jedn\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011bchto zem\u00ed.<\/p>\n

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Ekonomick\u00e9 sankce jsou ekonomick\u00e9 tresty pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00e9 k dosa\u017een\u00ed politick\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f. I kdy\u017e jsou sankce komplexn\u00ed (na ve\u0161ker\u00fd v\u00fdvoz a dovoz c\u00edlov\u00e9 zem\u011b), velmi multilater\u00e1ln\u00ed, \u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed se jich mnoho zem\u00ed, a zp\u016fsobuj\u00ed tak na \u010das nesnesitelnou ekonomickou bolest, \u010dasto politicky selh\u00e1vaj\u00ed. Sankce jsou obvykle \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011bj\u0161\u00ed s omezen\u00fdmi c\u00edli \u2013 nap\u0159\u00edklad p\u0159im\u011bt c\u00edlovou zemi, aby zastavila drobn\u00e9 specifick\u00e9 chov\u00e1n\u00ed. Obvykle se jim neda\u0159\u00ed dos\u00e1hnout z\u00e1sadn\u00edch zm\u011bn v c\u00edlov\u00e9 politice nebo spr\u00e1v\u011b v\u011bc\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch.<\/p>\n

N\u011bkter\u00e9 z nejp\u0159\u00edsn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch sankc\u00ed, jak\u00e9 kdy byly uplatn\u011bny, nep\u0159inutily Sadd\u00e1ma Husajna odvolat invazi do Kuvajtu v roce 1990, dosud nemotivovaly Vladimira Putina ke sta\u017een\u00ed invazn\u00edch sil z Ukrajiny a nep\u0159im\u011bly \u00cdr\u00e1n ani Severn\u00ed Koreu, aby ukon\u010dily sv\u016fj jadern\u00fd program a chovaly se na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u011b podle p\u0159edstav USA. Sankce ze zahrani\u010d\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e1 sehr\u00e1ly ur\u010ditou roli v tom, \u017ee p\u0159im\u011bly Jihoafrickou republiku upustit od apartheidu, ale hnac\u00ed silou za t\u00edm byly s\u00edly uvnit\u0159 zem\u011b.<\/p>\n

Pokud tedy ekonomick\u00e9 sankce mohou m\u00edt vysok\u00e9 n\u00e1klady jak pro sankcionuj\u00edc\u00ed, tak pro c\u00edlov\u00e9 zem\u011b a nemaj\u00ed vysokou \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nost p\u0159i dosahov\u00e1n\u00ed hlavn\u00edch politick\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f, pro\u010d je zem\u011b \u2013 zejm\u00e9na Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, hlavn\u00ed u\u017eivatel takov\u00e9 taktiky \u2013 st\u00e1le pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed? Odpov\u011bd\u00ed je, \u017ee sankce maj\u00ed symbolickou hodnotu. V zemi, na ni\u017e se vztahuj\u00ed sankce, je uvalen\u00ed sankc\u00ed s c\u00edlem uk\u00e1zat p\u0159ihl\u00ed\u017eej\u00edc\u00edmu mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edmu spole\u010denstv\u00ed \u2013 a p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9mu vnitropolitick\u00e9mu publiku \u2013 znepokojen\u00ed nad politikou c\u00edlov\u00e9ho n\u00e1roda \u010dasto st\u0159edn\u00ed cestou mezi zd\u00e1nliv\u011b chab\u00fdm diplomatick\u00fdm protestem a p\u0159ehnan\u00fdm vojensk\u00fdm nebo tajn\u00fdm \u00fatokem na c\u00edl.<\/p>\n

Politici, kte\u0159\u00ed se rozhodnou pro zlatou variantu sankc\u00ed, \u010dasto ani nev\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee opat\u0159en\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b dos\u00e1hnou sv\u00e9ho politick\u00e9ho c\u00edle, nebo dokonce, vzhledem k pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9mu bezuzdn\u00e9mu vyh\u00fdb\u00e1n\u00ed se da\u0148ov\u00fdm povinnostem, zp\u016fsob\u00ed c\u00edli velk\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 pot\u00ed\u017ee; Jsou si v\u0161ak relativn\u011b jisti, \u017ee \u00fadajn\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd trest poslou\u017e\u00ed symbolick\u00e9mu c\u00edli uk\u00e1zat, \u017ee „n\u011bco d\u011blaj\u00ed“ s pobu\u0159uj\u00edc\u00edm chov\u00e1n\u00edm ob\u011bti.\u00a0Sankce za Navaln\u00e9ho smrt tedy ve skute\u010dnosti nejsou nam\u00ed\u0159eny proti Rusku; Jsou nam\u00ed\u0159eny na v\u00e1s.<\/strong><\/p>\n

J.V. Tu posledn\u00ed v\u011btu jsem si nemohl odpustit nevytu\u010dnit. Je vtipn\u00e1 a z\u00e1rove\u0148 v\u00fdsti\u017en\u00e1.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Ji\u0159\u00ed Vyvadil<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dlouho jsem \u010dekal na \u010dl\u00e1nek tohoto typu, kter\u00fd pop\u00ed\u0161e nesmyslnost p\u0159edstav, \u017ee sankce natrvalo zm\u011bn\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":9821,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[29,22,125],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48044"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48044"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48044\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9821"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48044"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48044"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48044"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}