{"id":48030,"date":"2024-02-27T00:30:56","date_gmt":"2024-02-26T23:30:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=48030"},"modified":"2024-02-26T18:29:07","modified_gmt":"2024-02-26T17:29:07","slug":"radim-parik-eskalaci-invaze-jsme-prokaucovali-ted-hrajeme-o-cas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/02\/27\/radim-parik-eskalaci-invaze-jsme-prokaucovali-ted-hrajeme-o-cas\/","title":{"rendered":"Radim Pa\u0159\u00edk: Eskalaci invaze jsme prokau\u010dovali, te\u010f hrajeme o \u010das"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Radim Pa\u0159\u00edk, prezident Asociace vyjednava\u010d\u016f<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

24.\u00fanor 2024, smutn\u00e9 druh\u00e9 v\u00fdro\u010d\u00ed vp\u00e1du invazn\u00edch vojsk Rusk\u00e9 federace na \u00fazem\u00ed Ukrajiny. Vladimiru Putinovi se nepoda\u0159ilo dos\u00e1hnout c\u00edle rychl\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 operace, a tak tu m\u00e1me dlouh\u00fd a zat\u00edm nekon\u010d\u00edc\u00ed konflikt, ve kter\u00e9m z\u00e1stupci NATO a Evropy je\u0161t\u011b ne\u0159ekli, co cht\u011bj\u00ed. Putin vede zdr\u017eovac\u00ed v\u00e1lku, proto\u017ee v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee ji bu\u010f \u201evysed\u00ed\u201c d\u00edky t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 neomezen\u00fdm lidsk\u00fdm zdroj\u016fm, nebo bude m\u00edt pozd\u011bji v rukou lep\u0161\u00ed alternativy. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed sv\u011bt si za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 p\u0159ipou\u0161t\u011bt sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. Jen\u017ee p\u0159\u00edprava na nejhor\u0161\u00ed mo\u017enou situaci m\u011bla p\u0159ij\u00edt na \u00fapln\u00e9m za\u010d\u00e1tku.<\/p>\n

Pou\u010dme se z vlastn\u00edch\u00a0chyb<\/h2>\n

V\u00a0mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed vyjednava\u010dsk\u00e9 komunit\u011b jsme na bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00ed se krizovou situaci upozor\u0148ovali je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed invaz\u00ed s\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee Vladimir Putin neza\u00fato\u010d\u00ed na Ukrajinu v\u00a0pr\u016fb\u011bhu olympijsk\u00fdch her. Pokud by to ud\u011blal, ztratil by \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd prezident tv\u00e1\u0159 a Putinovi by to nikdy neodpustil. Dnes v\u00edme, \u017ee\u00a0Putin situaci skute\u010dn\u011b se Si \u0164in-pchingem konzultoval.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0t\u00e9 dob\u011b m\u011blo NATO jedine\u010dnou p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost situaci eskalovat rozestav\u011bn\u00edm vojensk\u00fdch jednotek po cel\u00e9 d\u00e9lce v\u00fdchodn\u00edho k\u0159\u00eddla. Politikov\u00e9 Evropsk\u00e9 unie i USA mohli zav\u00e9st tvrd\u00e9 sankce, kter\u00e9 by dop\u0159edu nekomunikovali a kter\u00e9 by nebyly takov\u00e9 nap\u016fl, jako odst\u0159i\u017een\u00ed jen n\u011bkter\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch bank od syst\u00e9mu SWIFT. P\u0159i\u0161li jsme tak o mo\u017enost deeskalovat situaci v\u00fdm\u011bnou za Putinovo upu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed od invaze.<\/p>\n

Nikdo si zat\u00edm ve\u0159ejn\u011b nechce p\u0159ipustit fakt, \u017ee Putin se zastav\u00ed tam, kde ho zastav\u00edme. Dokud my budeme volit strategii \u00fastupu, on bude pokra\u010dovat ve strategii tlaku. Dokud ne\u0159ekneme, co p\u0159esn\u011b chceme, bude \u201ekonec v\u00e1lky\u201c jen na\u0161e zbo\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed, ne m\u011b\u0159iteln\u00fd c\u00edl. P\u0159esto, objevuj\u00ed se prvn\u00ed n\u00e1znaky z\u00e1kulisn\u00edch jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o mo\u017en\u00e9m vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed o p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Kdy zasedneme k\u00a0vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00edmu stolu<\/h2>\n

Takov\u00e9 vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed bude m\u00edt n\u011bkolik podm\u00ednek. Ta prvn\u00ed, \u017ee jedna ze stran nejd\u0159\u00edve p\u0159estane v\u011b\u0159it, \u017ee m\u016f\u017ee vyhr\u00e1t. Pak budeme hledat n\u011bkoho, s\u00a0k\u00fdm bude Putin ochoten mluvit. Rusov\u00e9 nev\u011b\u0159\u00ed instituc\u00edm, jen osobnostem a Vladimir Vladimirovi\u010d bude ochoten jednat jen s\u00a0t\u00edm, koho pova\u017euje za sob\u011b rovn\u00e9ho.<\/p>\n

M\u016f\u017ee to b\u00fdt po prezidentsk\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch v USA i Joe Biden, kter\u00fd si u\u017e p\u0159ed dv\u011bma lety tak trochu zabouchl k\u00a0Putinovi dve\u0159e, kdy\u017e ho ozna\u010dil za \u201e\u0159ezn\u00edka\u201c. Prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed Kremlu, \u017ee Putin pova\u017euje Bidena za lep\u0161\u00edho kandid\u00e1ta, ne\u017e Donalda Trumpa, m\u016f\u017ee nazna\u010dovat, s\u00a0k\u00fdm by se rusk\u00fd prezident c\u00edtil ve vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed jist\u011bji.<\/p>\n

Ukrajina sama s\u00a0Ruskem vyjedn\u00e1vat nem\u016f\u017ee, proto\u017ee by t\u00edm rusk\u00fd prezident legitimizoval Volodymyra Zelensk\u00e9ho jako prezidenta svrchovan\u00e9 Ukrajiny. A Evropa se jev\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e jako neohraban\u00e1 instituce, ne\u017e \u017ee by byla schopna poslat vyjedn\u00e1vat silnou osobnost, kterou je\u00a0t\u0159eba b\u00fdval\u00e1 n\u011bmeck\u00e1 kancl\u00e9\u0159ka Angela Merkelov\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Je\u0161t\u011b jedna v\u011bc je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1. Putin nen\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd vizion\u00e1\u0159 a je to vid\u011bt na tom, jak funguje Rusk\u00e1 federace a rusk\u00e1 ekonomika. V\u00a0budoucnu tedy budeme vyjedn\u00e1vat s\u00a0b\u00fdval\u00fdm agentem KGB se\u00a0speci\u00e1ln\u00edm profilem exekutivce, kter\u00fd se soust\u0159ed\u00ed na okam\u017eit\u00e1 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Zlat\u00fd most pro Putina<\/h2>\n

Kdyby t\u00edm, kdo bude pot\u0159ebovat k\u00a0vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00edmu stolu jako prvn\u00ed, bylo Rusko, Putin za\u010dne vys\u00edlat nen\u00e1padn\u00e9 sign\u00e1ly typu \u201ejsme p\u0159ipraveni na konstruktivn\u00ed dialog\u201c. Aby neztratil tv\u00e1\u0159, budou to v\u0161ak z\u00e1padn\u00ed mocnosti, kter\u00e9 ho ofici\u00e1ln\u011b pozvou k\u00a0vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00edmu stolu. A budou tomu p\u0159edch\u00e1zet dlouh\u00e1 z\u00e1kulisn\u00ed vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed o tom, jak v\u0161e prob\u011bhne a co je v\u016fbec mo\u017en\u00e9 vyjednat.<\/p>\n

Nakonec Putinovi Z\u00e1pad vystav\u00ed zlat\u00fd most zp\u011bt do Ruska. Z vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed se toti\u017e dom\u016f mus\u00ed vr\u00e1tit jako v\u00edt\u011bz. V\u00a0ned\u00e1vn\u00e9m kontroverzn\u00edm rozhovoru s\u00a0americk\u00fdm moder\u00e1torem Tuckerem Carlsonem si o to vlastn\u011b s\u00e1m \u0159ekl, kdy\u017e prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee nen\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9, aby bylo Rusko na Ukrajin\u011b pora\u017eeno. Pokud mu ten most nepostav\u00edme, v\u00e1lku povede d\u00e1l. Nebo dohodu nedodr\u017e\u00ed a\u00a0vtrhne pozd\u011bji na Ukrajinu znovu.<\/p>\n

Ka\u017ed\u00fd konflikt kon\u010d\u00ed vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm<\/h2>\n

V\u00a0ka\u017ed\u00e9m vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed jde o byznys, tedy o vliv, \u00fazem\u00ed nebo t\u0159eba dostupnost technologi\u00ed. Po\u0159\u00e1d se zd\u00e1, \u017ee nejlep\u0161\u00edm \u0159e\u0161en\u00edm na stole bude rozd\u011blit Ukrajinu na v\u00fdchodn\u00ed a z\u00e1padn\u00ed, n\u011bco ve stylu N\u011bmecka po druh\u00e9 sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce. O tom ale ve\u0159ejn\u011b nikdo mluvit nechce. Mus\u00edme vyjedn\u00e1vat mnohostrann\u011b, tedy i s\u00a0\u010c\u00ednou nebo Indi\u00ed. Mus\u00edme velmi intenzivn\u011b vyjedn\u00e1vat tak\u00e9 intern\u011b, uvnit\u0159 Evropsk\u00e9 unie, abychom postupovali jednotn\u011b.<\/p>\n

Dosavadn\u00ed vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, pokud nezmi\u0148ujeme v\u00fdm\u011bny zajatc\u016f, byly sp\u00ed\u0161e divadlem na kamery. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty neust\u00e1le opakuj\u00ed, \u017ee s Ruskem za z\u00e1dy Ukrajin\u011b jednat nebudou a EU se rozpad\u00e1 na podporovatele Ukrajiny a pot\u00ed\u017eisty v\u010dele s\u00a0ma\u010farsk\u00fdm premi\u00e9rem Viktorem Orb\u00e1nem. NATO se chyst\u00e1 na velk\u00e1 cvi\u010den\u00ed a USA i EU schvaluj\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed bal\u00ed\u010dky finan\u010dn\u00ed podpory br\u00e1n\u00edc\u00edch se Ukrajinc\u016f.<\/p>\n

Putin se dle v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch pravidel sna\u017e\u00ed sv\u00e9 nep\u0159\u00e1tele rozd\u011blovat. Ned\u00e1vno nap\u0159\u00edklad vydaly rusk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady zatyka\u010d na estonskou premi\u00e9rku Kaju Kallasovou za jej\u00ed vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed na adresu Ruska, \u010d\u00edm\u017e chce nejen zastra\u0161it p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 dal\u0161\u00ed hrdiny, ale postupn\u011b tak n\u011bkter\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 politiky \u0159ad\u00ed na jak\u00fdsi anti-sank\u010dn\u00ed seznam. Mezit\u00edm s\u00e1m prohlubuje obchodn\u011b p\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 spojenectv\u00ed s\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nem, Severn\u00ed Koreou a zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b s \u010c\u00ednou, i kdy\u017e si historicky s Ruskem nebyly p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 bl\u00edzc\u00ed a \u010c\u00edna bude m\u00edt z\u00a0dlouho trvaj\u00edc\u00edho konfliktu v\u00edce starost\u00ed ne\u017e radost\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Po dvou letech Putin st\u00e1le v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee je pro n\u011bj v\u00e1lka v\u00fdhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed. A ne\u017e se posad\u00ed k\u00a0vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00edmu stolu, bude nad\u00e1le zkou\u0161et jednotu spojenc\u016f. Co kdyby se otev\u0159elo okno p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti k\u00a0lep\u0161\u00ed alternativ\u011b?<\/p>\n

Radim Pa\u0159\u00edk<\/em><\/p>\n

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Radim Pa\u0159\u00edk, prezident Asociace vyjednava\u010d\u016f 24.\u00fanor 2024, smutn\u00e9 druh\u00e9 v\u00fdro\u010d\u00ed vp\u00e1du invazn\u00edch vojsk Rusk\u00e9 federace…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":41834,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,220,26,6864],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48030"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=48030"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48030\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":48031,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/48030\/revisions\/48031"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/41834"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=48030"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=48030"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=48030"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}