{"id":47865,"date":"2024-02-25T00:51:03","date_gmt":"2024-02-24T23:51:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=47865"},"modified":"2024-02-24T19:15:26","modified_gmt":"2024-02-24T18:15:26","slug":"andrew-korybko-zde-je-to-co-jsem-se-naucil-z-analyzy-nove-studene-valky-kazdy-den-po-dobu-dvou-let","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/02\/25\/andrew-korybko-zde-je-to-co-jsem-se-naucil-z-analyzy-nove-studene-valky-kazdy-den-po-dobu-dvou-let\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Zde je to, co jsem se nau\u010dil z anal\u00fdzy nov\u00e9 studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky ka\u017ed\u00fd den po dobu dvou let"},"content":{"rendered":"
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T\u011bchto p\u011bt trend\u016f je pova\u017eov\u00e1no za nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed velk\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 trendy, u nich\u017e se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee budou m\u00edt nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed dopad na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed syst\u00e9movou transformaci v pr\u016fb\u011bhu nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edho roku.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Jsem americk\u00fd politick\u00fd analytik se s\u00eddlem v Moskv\u011b s\u00a0<\/span>PhD.\u00a0v politologii z MGIMO\u00a0<\/span><\/a>a toto je m\u016fj druh\u00fd ka\u017edoro\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159ehled Nov\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky\u00a0<\/span><\/a>pot\u00e9, co jsem sv\u016fj prvn\u00ed publikoval k ro\u010dn\u00edmu v\u00fdro\u010d\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>speci\u00e1ln\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/a>vojensk\u00e9\u00a0<\/a>operace\u00a0<\/a>(SMO)\u00a0zde\u00a0<\/a>.\u00a0Analyzuji novou studenou v\u00e1lku ka\u017ed\u00fd den od 24. \u00fanora 2022, po\u010d\u00ednaje nyn\u00ed\u00a0ji\u017e zanikl\u00fdm OneWorldem do poloviny roku 2022\u00a0<\/a>a\u00a0pokra\u010duj\u00ed na m\u00e9m Substacku\u00a0<\/a>do sou\u010dasnosti.\u00a0Zde je to, co jsem se nau\u010dil, kdy\u017e jsem to d\u011blal ka\u017ed\u00fd druh\u00fd rok v \u0159ad\u011b:<\/span><\/p>\n

———-<\/span><\/p>\n

* \u010c\u00ednsko-americk\u00e1 bi-multipolarita ustoupila tri-multipolarit\u011b<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00ednsko\u00a0<\/span>-americk\u00fd bi-multipol\u00e1rn\u00ed syst\u00e9m\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, kter\u00fd charakterizoval roky p\u0159ed SMO, se od t\u00e9 doby\u00a0<\/span>vyvinul v tri-multipolaritu\u00a0<\/span><\/a>v d\u016fsledku \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9ho vzestupu Indie jako\u00a0<\/span>celosv\u011btov\u011b v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 velmoci\u00a0<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0Vznikaj\u00edc\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d je nyn\u00ed utv\u00e1\u0159en souhrou mezi\u00a0<\/span>Zlatou\u00a0<\/span><\/a>miliardou Z\u00e1padu vedenou Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty\u00a0<\/a>, dohodou\u00a0Sino\u00a0<\/a>–\u00a0Russo\u00a0<\/a>Entente\u00a0<\/a>a\u00a0neform\u00e1ln\u00edm Glob\u00e1ln\u00edm Jihem veden\u00fdm Indi\u00ed,\u00a0<\/a>v n\u011bm\u017e je n\u011bkolik nez\u00e1visl\u00fdch velmoc\u00ed.\u00a0\u010casem se syst\u00e9m dostane do f\u00e1ze\u00a0komplexn\u00ed multipolarity (\u201emultiplexity\u201c)\u00a0<\/a>, do sv\u00e9 kone\u010dn\u00e9 podoby.<\/span><\/p>\n

* \u201ePevnost Evropa\u201c je nov\u00fd projekt USA pro udr\u017een\u00ed Ruska<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Ne\u00fasp\u011bch\u00a0<\/span>kyjevsk\u00e9 protiofenz\u00edvy\u00a0<\/span><\/a>p\u0159im\u011bl USA, aby zv\u00e1\u017eily z\u00e1lo\u017en\u00ed pl\u00e1ny na zadr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed Ruska pot\u00e9, co se uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee NATO nem\u016f\u017ee strategicky porazit sv\u00e9ho protivn\u00edka na Ukrajin\u011b.\u00a0<\/span>Pod\u0159\u00edzenost Polska N\u011bmecku\u00a0<\/span><\/a>po n\u00e1vratu premi\u00e9ra Donalda Tuska k moci umo\u017enila t\u00e9to zemi obnovit\u00a0<\/span>svou velmocenskou trajektorii s podporou USA\u00a0<\/span><\/a>pro urychlen\u00ed v\u00fdstavby \u201e\u00a0<\/span>Pevnosti Evropa\u00a0<\/span><\/a>\u201c, kter\u00e1 spln\u00ed tento c\u00edl a z\u00e1rove\u0148 uvoln\u00ed americk\u00e9 s\u00edly k p\u0159esunu do Asie na zadr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed \u010c\u00edny.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

* Z\u00e1padn\u00ed vojensko-pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 prost\u0159edky jsou slab\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e se o\u010dek\u00e1valo<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

N\u011bmecko se v brzk\u00e9 dob\u011b nestane supervelmoc\u00ed a ani USA nebudou v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed budoucnosti svalnat\u011bji ovl\u00e1dat \u010c\u00ednu, proto\u017ee z\u00e1padn\u00ed vojensko-pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 prost\u0159edky jsou slab\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e se o\u010dek\u00e1valo, jak dokazuje selh\u00e1n\u00ed protiofenz\u00edvy a neschopnost doplnit ztracen\u00e9 z\u00e1soby, kter\u00e9 byly poskytnuty Kyjevu. .\u00a0<\/span>The New York Times\u00a0<\/span><\/a>dokonce loni v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed potvrdily, \u017ee Rusko je daleko p\u0159ed NATO v\u00a0<\/span>\u201ez\u00e1vod\u011b logistiky\u201c\/\u201eopot\u0159ebovac\u00ed v\u00e1lce\u201c\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, co\u017e vysv\u011btluje, pro\u010d se ukrajinsk\u00fd konflikt v posledn\u00ed dob\u011b tak\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>za\u010dal sni\u017eovat\u00a0<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

* Jak\u00e1koli z\u00e1m\u011brn\u011b vypo\u010d\u00edtan\u00e1 \u010d\u00ednsko-americk\u00e1 krize byla pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zpo\u017ed\u011bna<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Na z\u00e1klad\u011b posledn\u00edho pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed je pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee jak\u00e1koli z\u00e1m\u011brn\u011b vypo\u010d\u00edtan\u00e1 \u010d\u00ednsko-americk\u00e1 krize byla odlo\u017eena p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm do konce desetilet\u00ed kv\u016fli skute\u010dnosti, \u017ee p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b slab\u00fd americk\u00fd vojensko-pr\u016fmyslov\u00fd komplex vy\u017eaduje \u010das na znovuvyzbrojen\u00ed Ameriky, dopln\u011bn\u00ed jej\u00edch z\u00e1sob a vyzbrojit region\u00e1ln\u00ed spojence.\u00a0\u0160patn\u00fdm odhadem by mohla nastat pom\u011brn\u011b mal\u00e1 krize, mo\u017en\u00e1 kv\u016fli\u00a0<\/span>\u010d\u00ednsko-filip\u00ednsk\u00e9mu sporu\u00a0<\/span><\/a>, ale USA by se pot\u00fdkaly s t\u00edm, aby zvl\u00e1dly velkou krizi samy, nato\u017e aby vedly velkou v\u00e1lku pr\u00e1v\u011b te\u010f.<\/span><\/p>\n

* \u0160ir\u0161\u00ed oblast Rud\u00e9ho mo\u0159e je nov\u00fdm glob\u00e1ln\u00edm ji\u017en\u00edm vzplanut\u00edm<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Prim\u00e1rn\u00ed trasa pro euro-asijsk\u00fd obchod byla naru\u0161ena blok\u00e1dou\u00a0<\/span>Houthi\u016f\u00a0<\/a><\/span>a\u00a0<\/span><\/a>bezpe\u010dnost z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nejist\u00e1, i kdy\u017e bude v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9 zru\u0161eno kv\u016fli tomu, \u017ee Som\u00e1lsko sestavilo region\u00e1ln\u00ed koalici \u2013\u00a0Eritrea\u00a0<\/a>,\u00a0Egypt\u00a0<\/a>a p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b\u00a0Turecko\u00a0<\/a>a\u00a0USA\u00a0<\/a>\u2013 s c\u00edlem zastavit\u00a0pl\u00e1ny Etiopie na otev\u0159en\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed z\u00e1kladna\u00a0<\/a>v\u00a0Somalilandu\u00a0<\/a>.\u00a0Z\u00e1jmy v\u0161ech\u00a0kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch velmoc\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>\u2013 USA, \u010c\u00edny, EU, Ruska, Indie \u2013 se sbli\u017euj\u00ed v \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed oblasti Rud\u00e9ho mo\u0159e, co\u017e z n\u00ed d\u011bl\u00e1 nov\u00fd bod glob\u00e1ln\u00edho jihu, kter\u00fd je t\u0159eba bedliv\u011b sledovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

———-<\/span><\/p>\n

T\u011bchto p\u011bt trend\u016f je pova\u017eov\u00e1no za nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed velk\u00e9 strategick\u00e9, i kdy\u017e to neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee jin\u00e9 jako ty, kter\u00e9 se odehr\u00e1vaj\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>v Sahelu\u00a0<\/a><\/span>nebo\u00a0<\/span><\/a>zrychlen\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>proces\u016f finan\u010dn\u00ed multipolarity, nejsou d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9.\u00a0Pr\u00e1v\u011b od nich se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee budou m\u00edt nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed dopad na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed syst\u00e9movou transformaci v pr\u016fb\u011bhu nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edho roku z d\u016fvod\u016f, kter\u00e9 byly vysv\u011btleny.\u00a0Douf\u00e1m, \u017ee m\u016fj pohled m\u016f\u017ee inspirovat dal\u0161\u00ed analytiky k tomu, aby p\u0159eorientovali svou pr\u00e1ci a n\u00e1sledn\u011b zlep\u0161ili jej\u00ed kvalitu.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

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T\u011bchto p\u011bt trend\u016f je pova\u017eov\u00e1no za nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed velk\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 trendy, u nich\u017e se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":47866,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,2181,122,276],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47865"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47865"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47865\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":47867,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47865\/revisions\/47867"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47866"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47865"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47865"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47865"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}