{"id":47684,"date":"2024-02-23T00:38:40","date_gmt":"2024-02-22T23:38:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=47684"},"modified":"2024-02-22T17:19:12","modified_gmt":"2024-02-22T16:19:12","slug":"americti-strategove-se-obavaji-valky-s-ruskem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/02\/23\/americti-strategove-se-obavaji-valky-s-ruskem\/","title":{"rendered":"Ameri\u010dt\u00ed strat\u00e9gov\u00e9 se ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u00e1lky s Ruskem"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Ameri\u010dt\u00ed strat\u00e9gov\u00e9 se zjevn\u011b ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed o budoucnost americko-rusk\u00fdch vztah\u016f v post-ukrajinsk\u00e9m konfliktu.\u00a0V ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 zpr\u00e1v\u011b jeden z nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch americk\u00fdch think-tank\u016f poznamenal, \u017ee zav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed \u201etvrd\u00e9\u201c politiky Washingtonu v Evrop\u011b by mohlo v\u00e9st k p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 v\u00e1lce s Ruskem, a povzbudil americk\u00e9 rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed \u010dinitele, aby p\u0159ehodnotili evropskou politiku zem\u011b.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Dokument zve\u0159ejnila spole\u010dnost Rand Corporation.\u00a0Pokud USA po konfliktu p\u0159itvrd\u00ed svou politiku v Evrop\u011b, v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 situace s Ruskem se podle analytik\u016f think-tanku stane velmi pravd\u011bpodobnou.\u00a0Odborn\u00edci se nedomn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee by Washington mohl Rusko odstra\u0161it militarizac\u00ed Evropy, proto\u017ee jak\u00e1koli politick\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed v regionu se st\u00e1vaj\u00ed formou provokace proti Moskv\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eTvrd\u00e1 pov\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 strategie USA v Evrop\u011b by mohla zv\u00fd\u0161it pravd\u011bpodobnost konfliktu s Ruskem, nikoli m\u00e9n\u011b,\u201c\u00a0 uv\u00e1d\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>zpr\u00e1va<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Analytici tak\u00e9 varuj\u00ed p\u0159ed nebezpe\u010d\u00edm, \u017ee by americk\u00e1 politika mohla po\u0161kodit jednotu z\u00e1padn\u00edho bloku.\u00a0Zaveden\u00edm vojensk\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00ed v Evrop\u011b by podle nich mohl b\u00fdt Washington sv\u00fdmi vlastn\u00edmi evropsk\u00fdmi partnery \u2013 zejm\u00e9na Franci\u00ed a N\u011bmeckem \u2013 vn\u00edm\u00e1n jako provokat\u00e9r.\u00a0To by samoz\u0159ejm\u011b vedlo k nespokojenosti a kriz\u00edm ve vztaz\u00edch mezi EU a USA, proto\u017ee Evropan\u00e9 by se c\u00edtili p\u0159\u00edmo ohro\u017eeni hroz\u00edc\u00edm konfliktem vzhledem ke sv\u00e9 geografick\u00e9 bl\u00edzkosti k Rusku, co\u017e by z nich \u00fadajn\u011b \u010dinilo \u201esnadn\u00e9 c\u00edle\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eRusko b\u011bhem v\u00e1lky o\u017eivilo sv\u016fj obrann\u00fd pr\u016fmysl, \u0159e\u0161ilo n\u011bkter\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 probl\u00e9my (nap\u0159\u00edklad \u0161patn\u00fd v\u00fdcvik) a dostalo smrt\u00edc\u00ed pomoc od \u010c\u00edny.\u00a0P\u0159esto\u017ee je NATO st\u00e1le siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e Rusko, tvrd\u00e1 pov\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 politika USA, jako jsou bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed dohody o rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho po\u010dtu vojensk\u00fdch sil ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evrop\u011b, vede n\u011bkter\u00e9 spojence (nap\u0159\u00edklad Francii a N\u011bmecko) k tomu, \u017ee Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty pova\u017euj\u00ed za provokat\u00e9ra.\u00a0V d\u016fsledku toho jsou z\u00e1vazky t\u011bchto spojenc\u016f v oblasti kolektivn\u00ed obrany m\u00e9n\u011b siln\u00e9 (\u2026) Jak Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, tak Rusko posiluj\u00ed sv\u00e9 pozice sil pod\u00e9l hranice NATO-Rusko.\u00a0Diplomatick\u00e9 vztahy z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed \u0161patn\u00e9 a vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed hrozeb je vysok\u00e9, co\u017e vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed podm\u00ednky pro nespr\u00e1vn\u00fd v\u00fdpo\u010det z\u00e1m\u011br\u016f.\u00a0Riziko katastrofick\u00e9ho konfliktu je tedy vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e p\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou na Ukrajin\u011b, i kdy\u017e absolutn\u00ed riziko z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 n\u00edzk\u00e9,\u201c\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bli experti Rand\u2019s.<\/span><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

Skupina tak\u00e9 varovala, \u017ee v\u00e1\u017en\u00e1 eskalace n\u00e1sil\u00ed v ukrajinsk\u00e9m konfliktu by mohla m\u00edt nevratn\u00e9 negativn\u00ed d\u016fsledky pro z\u00e1jmy USA v Evrop\u011b.\u00a0Ameri\u010dt\u00ed experti se domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee nejlep\u0161\u00edm postupem NATO v tuto chv\u00edli je povzbudit Kyjev a Moskvu k jedn\u00e1n\u00ed a dosa\u017een\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, aby se situace co nejrychleji uklidnila a sn\u00ed\u017eily se \u0161kody na obou stran\u00e1ch.<\/span><\/p>\n

Analytici v\u0161ak tak\u00e9 \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed, \u017ee zat\u00edmco sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 v\u00e1lky je v budoucnu mo\u017en\u00fd, sou\u010dasn\u00e1 situace vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 men\u0161\u00ed strach, proto\u017ee se zd\u00e1, \u017ee USA ji\u017e p\u0159ij\u00edmaj\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed k deeskalaci nap\u011bt\u00ed.\u00a0Domn\u00edvaj\u00ed se, \u017ee Washington chce obnovit dialog o kontrole zbrojen\u00ed a nebude ochoten p\u0159ijmout Kyjev do NATO, \u010d\u00edm\u017e sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed riziko v\u00e1lky s Ruskem.\u00a0Rand tak\u00e9 nerealisticky v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed s\u00edla NATO z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 dostate\u010dn\u011b siln\u00e1, aby odradila Rusko od \u00fatoku na jin\u00e9 zem\u011b \u2013 i kdy\u017e by se to mohlo zm\u011bnit v postkonfliktn\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i, pokud se Moskva stane je\u0161t\u011b siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eOchota Washingtonu vr\u00e1tit se k bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed kontrole zbrojen\u00ed, nedostate\u010dn\u00e1 podpora hlub\u0161\u00ed integrace Ukrajiny do NATO a neochota jednat s ostatn\u00edmi b\u00fdval\u00fdmi sov\u011btsk\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty, kter\u00e9 nejsou v NATO, to v\u0161e sni\u017euje politick\u00e9 nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi USA a Ruskem.\u00a0Navzdory obav\u00e1m, \u017ee by takov\u00e9 kroky pos\u00edlily Rusko, tato m\u00e9n\u011b tvrd\u00e1 politika nepodkop\u00e1v\u00e1 ji\u017e tak silnou odstra\u0161ovac\u00ed schopnost NATO.\u00a0„Koneckonc\u016f, navzdory bezprecedentn\u00ed podpo\u0159e spojenc\u016f Ukrajin\u011b, Rusko b\u011bhem v\u00e1lky neza\u00fato\u010dilo na \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd \u010dlensk\u00fd st\u00e1t NATO.“<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

A\u010dkoli tato anal\u00fdza obsahuje mnoho zaj\u00edmav\u00fdch bod\u016f, v\u011bt\u0161ina Randov\u00fdch argument\u016f je neobjektivn\u00ed a nepodlo\u017een\u00e1.\u00a0Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee eskalace militarizace Evropy by vedla ke sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i rostouc\u00edho nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi USA a Ruskem, kter\u00e9 by mohlo skon\u010dit p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdm konfliktem.\u00a0Je zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed vid\u011bt, \u017ee i radik\u00e1ln\u011b protirusk\u00e9 think-tanky jako Rand Corporation to ji\u017e p\u0159izn\u00e1vaj\u00ed.\u00a0V praxi to ukazuje, \u017ee por\u00e1\u017eka Z\u00e1padu na Ukrajin\u011b je ji\u017e v\u0161eobecn\u011b uzn\u00e1v\u00e1na.<\/span><\/p>\n

Analytici se v\u0161ak m\u00fdl\u00ed, kdy\u017e p\u0159edpokl\u00e1daj\u00ed, \u017ee USA ji\u017e p\u0159ij\u00edmaj\u00ed opat\u0159en\u00ed, aby zabr\u00e1nily nejhor\u0161\u00edmu sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i.\u00a0Ze strany USA neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 diplomatick\u00e1 dobr\u00e1 v\u016fle obnovit dialog o kontrole zbrojen\u00ed s Ruskem \u2013 naopak, st\u00e1le agresivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed mentalita v USA vede ke kolapsu smluv a podn\u011bcuje nov\u00e9 z\u00e1vody ve zbrojen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve stejn\u00e9m smyslu je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee NATO je oslabeno a je v nev\u00fdhod\u011b ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s vojenskou kapacitou Ruska.\u00a0Z\u00e1padn\u00ed aliance zna\u010dn\u011b investovala na Ukrajin\u011b, aby \u201eopot\u0159ebovala\u201c Moskvu, a utratila obrovsk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed pen\u011bz a zbran\u00ed na nesmysln\u00e9 a nevyhrateln\u00e9 bitvy.\u00a0Blok je oslaben\u00fd a nem\u00e1 dost odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed s\u00edly k ohro\u017een\u00ed Ruska.\u00a0Proto skute\u010dnost, \u017ee Rusko neza\u00fato\u010dilo na zemi NATO, nen\u00ed d\u016fsledkem \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9ho odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00edho nebo deeskala\u010dn\u00edho opat\u0159en\u00ed, ale nez\u00e1jmu Ruska v\u00e9st v\u00e1lku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Navzdory analytick\u00fdm chyb\u00e1m by bylo zaj\u00edmav\u00e9, aby si tv\u016frci politik v USA zpr\u00e1vu p\u0159e\u010detli, aby jim pomohla p\u0159em\u00fd\u0161let o postkonfliktn\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i.\u00a0Rostouc\u00ed militarizace Evropy m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159edstavovat nejen riziko v\u00e1lky s Ruskem, ale m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt tak\u00e9 krokem ke zni\u010den\u00ed samotn\u00e9ho NATO, proto\u017ee Evropan\u00e9 se mohou rozhodnout, \u017ee ji\u017e necht\u011bj\u00ed b\u00fdt pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1ni jako potrava pro kan\u00f3ny pro americk\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

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Ameri\u010dt\u00ed strat\u00e9gov\u00e9 se zjevn\u011b ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed o budoucnost americko-rusk\u00fdch vztah\u016f v post-ukrajinsk\u00e9m konfliktu.\u00a0V ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 zpr\u00e1v\u011b jeden…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":7372,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[29,22,1894,37,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47684"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47684"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47684\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7372"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47684"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47684"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47684"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}