{"id":47236,"date":"2024-02-17T00:36:22","date_gmt":"2024-02-16T23:36:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=47236"},"modified":"2024-02-16T18:36:17","modified_gmt":"2024-02-16T17:36:17","slug":"zbynek-fiala-ceska-mena-pres-velmi-otevrenou-hubu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/02\/17\/zbynek-fiala-ceska-mena-pres-velmi-otevrenou-hubu\/","title":{"rendered":"Zbyn\u011bk Fiala: \u010cesk\u00e1 m\u011bna p\u0159es velmi otev\u0159enou hubu"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Pom\u011b\u0159ujeme-li korunu p\u0159es Big Mac Index \u010dasopisu The Economist, je nejbl\u00ed\u017ee Rumunsku nebo Ukrajin\u011b.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Inflace kles\u00e1, ale koruna tak\u00e9. Teoreticky to souvis\u00ed, ale teorie se m\u016f\u017ee m\u00fdlit. Ani ta \u010desk\u00e1 inflace neodpov\u00eddala u\u010debnicov\u00fdm p\u0159edstav\u00e1m, proto\u017ee byla nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, p\u0159esto\u017ee r\u00e1mcov\u00e9 podm\u00ednky byly zhruba stejn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0lo\u0148sk\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvku pro \u010dnBlog guvern\u00e9r centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky Ale\u0161 Michl spolu s\u00a0Adamem Tom\u00e1\u0161em pouk\u00e1zali na to, \u017ee kdy\u017e je \u010desk\u00e1 inflace vysok\u00e1 a \u010desk\u00fd hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd v\u00fdkon n\u00edzk\u00fd, zejm\u00e9na v\u00a0d\u016fsledku slab\u0161\u00ed spot\u0159eby, tak zdroje inflace mus\u00edme hledat jinde ne\u017e v\u00a0n\u011bjak\u00e9m dom\u00e1c\u00edm \u201ep\u0159eh\u0159\u00e1t\u00ed\u201c. V\u00a0\u010cesku se nav\u00edc inflace chovala jinak ne\u017e v\u00a0ostatn\u00edch zem\u00edch EU, byla v\u00fdrazn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed i jako \u201ej\u00e1drov\u00e1\u201c, tedy bez energi\u00ed a potravin.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.cnb.cz\/cs\/o_cnb\/cnblog\/Inflace-v-CR-cyklicky-ci-acyklicky-pribeh\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Z\u00a0toho se d\u00e1 vy\u010d\u00edst, \u017ee vedle vysok\u00fdch cen energi\u00ed, kter\u00e9 p\u016fsobily z\u00a0vn\u011bj\u0161ku plo\u0161n\u011b, tu byla je\u0161t\u011b n\u011bjak\u00e1 \u201e\u010desk\u00e1 specifika\u201c, jako t\u0159eba \u0161patn\u00e1 v\u00fdchoz\u00ed pozice centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky (extr\u00e9mn\u011b vysok\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby nastaven\u00e9 za Rusnoka) a \u0161patn\u00e1 odpov\u011b\u010f vl\u00e1dy na vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u0161ok skokov\u011b zdra\u017een\u00fdch energi\u00ed. Tady stoj\u00ed za p\u0159ipomenut\u00ed \u010dast\u00fd argument proti \u010desk\u00e9mu p\u0159evzet\u00ed eura, \u017ee by n\u00e1s zbavilo mo\u017enosti samostatn\u011b reagovat na hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 v\u00fdkyvy. Dosavadn\u00ed zku\u0161enosti nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee jde i o mo\u017enost ekonomiku vlastn\u00ed p\u00edl\u00ed dorazit.<\/p>\n

Premi\u00e9r Petr Fiala se ke zvl\u00e1\u0161tnostem \u010desk\u00e9 inflace nehl\u00e1s\u00ed, zato k\u00a0jej\u00edmu poklesu ano: \u201ePotvrzuje se, co jsem sl\u00edbil ob\u010dan\u016fm ve sv\u00e9m v\u00e1no\u010dn\u00edm projevu…\u201c<\/em>\u00a0Sl\u00edben\u00fd d\u00e1rek je tu. Uplatnil i svoji profesuru v\u00a0oboru politologie, kdy\u017e p\u0159ipomn\u011bl, \u017ee\u00a0\u201enyn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed inflace je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 t\u0159etinov\u00e1 oproti prosinci 2021, kdy p\u0159evzal \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed zem\u011b od kabinetu Andreje Babi\u0161e (ANO). Tehdy byla 6,6\u00a0procenta.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

Tohle mus\u00ed b\u00fdt jasn\u00e9 ka\u017ed\u00e9 babi\u010dce z\u00a0Horn\u00ed Doln\u00ed, jak herkulovsky premi\u00e9r Fiala vykydal ten Andrej\u016fv chl\u00edv. Bylo to o to t\u011b\u017e\u0161\u00ed (to u\u017e nep\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1), \u017ee tam s\u00e1m mezit\u00edm p\u0159ihodil dvakr\u00e1t tolik.<\/p>\n

Guvern\u00e9r \u010cNB Ale\u0161 Michl k\u00a0tomu p\u0159istupuje v\u011bcn\u011bji:\u00a0\u201eNov\u00e1 bankovn\u00ed rada za\u010dala svou pr\u00e1ci v \u010dervenci 2022 \u2013 tehdy byla meziro\u010dn\u00ed inflace 17,5 procenta. Zm\u011bnili jsme strategii m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.cnb.cz\/cs\/menova-politika\/inflacni-cil\/tema-inflace\/index.html<\/a><\/p>\n

Te\u010f m\u00e1me tedy proti inflaci 2,3 procenta z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby 6,25 procenta. Proti n\u00edzk\u00e9 inflaci stoj\u00ed drah\u00e9 pen\u00edze, kter\u00e9 ov\u0161em nemaj\u00ed \u00fapln\u011b svobodnou volbu. Potvrzuje se, jak byly omyly p\u0159edchoz\u00edch veden\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky n\u00e1kladn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Nejprve se vydaly za guvern\u00e9ra Singera dva biliony korun na oslaben\u00ed kurzu \u010desk\u00e9 m\u011bny, a potom za Rusnoka dva dal\u0161\u00ed biliony na snahu z\u00a0tohoto \u0161\u00edlen\u00e9ho experimentu vycouvat. Tyhle koruny se dostaly do rukou zahrani\u010dn\u00edch spekulant\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed se jich pak zbavovali jen neochotn\u011b, \u010dekali na velkou r\u00e1nu, prudk\u00e9 pos\u00edlen\u00ed, aby na tom mohli vyd\u011blat. K\u00a0tomu si p\u0159idejte p\u0159es 3 biliony st\u00e1tn\u00edho zadlu\u017een\u00ed, kter\u00fdm inflaci na\u0161leh\u00e1v\u00e1 premi\u00e9r Fiala.<\/p>\n

To, co bylo v\u00a0ob\u011bhu z\u00a0t\u011bchto pen\u011bz nav\u00edc (nevznikly z\u00a0pr\u00e1ce, ale poklepnut\u00edm do kl\u00e1vesnice syst\u00e9mu \u010cNB), to inflaci pom\u00e1h\u00e1. V\u00fdsledkem t\u00e9to politiky je, \u017ee mus\u00edme d\u00e9le udr\u017eovat vysok\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby a mus\u00edme je udr\u017eovat na vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farovni ne\u017e ostatn\u00ed. \u201eZ\u016fstaneme jest\u0159\u00e1by,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Michl. Potom v\u0161ak konkurenceschopnost \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky z\u016fstane pod tlakem.<\/p>\n

\u00daroky p\u0159esto mus\u00ed postupn\u011b dol\u016f a tato vyhl\u00eddka sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed sazeb oslabuje korunu. To zase m\u016f\u017ee vr\u00e1tit inflaci p\u0159es ceny dov\u00e1\u017een\u00fdch energetick\u00fdch surovin. Vypl\u00fdv\u00e1 z\u00a0toho jedin\u00e9: P\u0159evzet\u00ed eura je jen teorie, ale m\u011bnov\u00e9 svobody jsme u\u017e d\u00e1vno zbaveni. Extr\u00e9mn\u00ed exportn\u00ed orientace a vysok\u00fd pod\u00edl zahrani\u010dn\u00edch vlastn\u00edk\u016f br\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00a0aktivit\u00e1ch proti v\u011btru. A dorazil to ten nesmysl s \u201ekurzov\u00fdm z\u00e1vazkem\u201c a na n\u011bj nalepen\u00fdm balvanem rezerv zv\u00edc\u00edm \u010dty\u0159 bilion\u016f korun. K\u00a0tomu pak p\u0159i\u010dt\u011bme balvan v\u00a0podob\u011b st\u00e1tn\u00edho dluhu za t\u0159i biliony korun. HDP \u010cR je n\u011bco p\u0159es 7 bilion\u016f korun.<\/p>\n

Kam by m\u011bla koruna zam\u00ed\u0159it, kdyby nem\u011bla p\u0159ist\u0159i\u017een\u00e1 k\u0159\u00eddla? Existuje celkem z\u00e1bavn\u00e9 srovn\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 v\u0161ak vymyslel seri\u00f3zn\u00ed The Economist. Spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v\u00a0\u00fa\u010dtence za americk\u00fd karban\u00e1tek (s \u010desk\u00fdmi ko\u0159eny, jak v\u00edme). Big Mac Index porovn\u00e1v\u00e1 cenu t\u00e9to roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00e9 pokrutiny, p\u0159i jej\u00edm\u017e po\u017eit\u00ed si vyvr\u00e1t\u00edte \u010delist, v\u00a0dolarech a v\u00a0m\u00edstn\u00ed m\u011bn\u011b kdesi ve sv\u011bt\u011b.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.economist.com\/big-mac-index<\/a><\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e je karban\u00e1tek v\u00a0Americe za 5 dolar\u016f a v\u00a0\u010c\u00edn\u011b za 20 y\u00fcan\u016f, m\u011bl by b\u00fdt sm\u011bnn\u00fd kurz dolaru 4 y\u00fcany. Ale nen\u00ed, za dolar dostanete ve sm\u011bn\u00e1rn\u011b 6,4 y\u00fcanu. \u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1 m\u011bna je tedy podcen\u011bna, tvrd\u00ed The Economist a jeho hrub\u00fd Big Mac Index hovo\u0159\u00ed o m\u00ednus 38 procentech. Je to tlak na \u010c\u00ed\u0148ana, aby se p\u0159iznal a kurz pos\u00edlil. Jeho zbo\u017e\u00ed pak na zahrani\u010dn\u00edch trz\u00edch zdra\u017e\u00ed a bude od n\u011bj trochu pokoj.<\/p>\n

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V\u00a0Praze je podle Googlu tento lahodn\u00fd karban\u00e1tek za 79 korun. J\u00e1 to nev\u00edm, jedl jsem to jen p\u00e1rkr\u00e1t ze zoufalstv\u00ed v\u00a0zahrani\u010d\u00ed, kdy\u017e to byla ta nejlacin\u011bj\u0161\u00ed mo\u017enost. \u010casy se m\u011bn\u00ed, ale soust\u0159e\u010fme se na \u010d\u00edsla. Aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed cena Big Mac v\u00a0USA je podle stejn\u00e9ho zdroje 5,69 dolaru. Jist\u011b kol\u00eds\u00e1, ale n\u011bkdo to takhle spo\u010d\u00edtal. Kurz dolaru je te\u010f u n\u00e1s na 23,60 K\u010d. Kdy\u017e to vyd\u011bl\u00edme, vyjde n\u00e1m karban\u00e1tkov\u00fd kurz dolaru na m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 14 korun.<\/p>\n

Trochu nekorektn\u011b to p\u0159epo\u010dtu na euro, kter\u00e9 je o n\u011bjak\u00fdch osm procent siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a vyjde mi kurz eura p\u0159es velmi otev\u0159enou hubu na 15 korun. Na regulovan\u00e9m trhu (nikoliv ve zlod\u011bjsk\u00fdch sm\u011bn\u00e1rn\u00e1ch) je euro za 25,40 K\u010d. Koruna je tedy podcen\u011bna o v\u00edce ne\u017e 40 procent.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e se pod\u00edv\u00e1me do tabulky v\u00a0The Economist, je tam v\u00a0podobn\u00e9 situaci i Rumunsko nebo Ukrajina. Najdeme tam i Japonsko a zem\u011b jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asie, ale ty jsou v\u00edc ovliv\u0148ov\u00e1ny \u010c\u00ednou, kter\u00e1 je, jak u\u017e jsme si v\u0161imli, jinde. My si v\u00a0t\u00e9to z\u00f3n\u011b moc ne\u0161krtneme, tak je z\u00e1hada, co tam d\u011bl\u00e1me. Leda\u017ee by n\u00e1m \u0161lo v\u00edc o sbl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed s\u00a0Rumunskem nebo Ukrajinou.<\/p>\n

Opakuji, je to kurz s\u00a0velmi otev\u0159enou hubou, karban\u00e1tek nen\u00ed v\u0161echno. Ale statistika r\u00e1da operuje s\u00a0paritou kupn\u00ed s\u00edly, kdy produkci porovn\u00e1v\u00e1 podle mno\u017estv\u00ed srovnateln\u00e9ho zbo\u017e\u00ed, nikoliv jeho ocen\u011bn\u00ed sm\u011bnn\u00fdm kurzem. Kdyby byl karban\u00e1tek v\u0161echno, museli bychom na\u0161i produkci zn\u00e1sobit indexem 1,7, aby byla srovnateln\u00e1 s\u00a0americkou nebo evropskou. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b euro za 15 korun nen\u00ed v\u00a0ur\u010dit\u00fdch obchodn\u00edch vztaz\u00edch nesmysl a m\u011bli bychom si ob\u010das tento \u201ekurz s\u00a0velmi otev\u0159enou hubou\u201c p\u0159ipomenout.<\/p>\n

Je ov\u0161em ot\u00e1zka, nakolik je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd. \u010cesk\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banka m\u016f\u017ee \u0159\u00eddit m\u011bnovou politiku nejen ve vztahu se subjekty, kter\u00e9 pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed korunu. Polovina \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky v\u0161ak jede v\u00a0euru, sm\u00ed se v\u00a0n\u011bm \u00fa\u010dtovat, a dokonce platit dan\u011b. T\u011bmto subjekt\u016fm jsou \u010desk\u00e9 kurzy a \u010desk\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby jedno. Tedy skoro jedno, ne\u017e to mus\u00ed sm\u011bnit, aby m\u011bli na v\u00fdplatu \u010desk\u00fdch zam\u011bstnanc\u016f.<\/p>\n

N\u011bkde v\u00a0\u010desk\u00e9m tisku jsem zaznamenal upozorn\u011bn\u00ed na to, \u017ee na\u0161e dv\u011b ekonomiky, jedna v\u00a0eurech, druh\u00e1 v\u00a0korun\u00e1ch, se chovaj\u00ed odli\u0161n\u011b. Op\u00edr\u00e1 se to o star\u0161\u00ed studii, kterou napsal Ale\u0161 Chmela\u0159, kdy\u017e je\u0161t\u011b slou\u017eil za premi\u00e9ra Bohuslava Sobotky ve strategick\u00e9m \u00fatvaru \u010desk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy. Psal o \u010d\u00e1sti ekonomiky ovl\u00e1dan\u00e9 ze zahrani\u010d\u00ed, vedle kter\u00e9 m\u00e1me mnohem slab\u0161\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st. Dom\u00e1c\u00ed ekonomika po desetilet\u00ed v\u00edcem\u00e9n\u011b stagnovala, zat\u00edmco zahrani\u010dn\u00ed za stejn\u00e9 obdob\u00ed desetkr\u00e1t vzrostla.<\/p>\n

V\u00fdnosy plynuly ven, ro\u010dn\u00ed odliv dividend do zahrani\u010dn\u00ed u\u017e p\u0159es\u00e1hl 300 miliard korun, ale reinvestice klesaly. Prob\u00edhal tu \u010dist\u00fd odliv kapit\u00e1lu. Uk\u00e1zalo se tak\u00e9, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed investice v\u00a0\u010cesku jsou v\u00fdrazn\u011b ziskov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e jinde. M\u00e1 na to vliv n\u00edzk\u00e9 zdan\u011bn\u00ed, ale na to m\u00e1lokdy dojde, proto\u017ee tu jsou extr\u00e9mn\u011b \u0161t\u011bdr\u00e9 investi\u010dn\u00ed pob\u00eddky s\u00a0dlouh\u00fdmi da\u0148ov\u00fdmi pr\u00e1zdninami. Tak\u017ee nejen m\u011bnu, ale i ekonomiku nem\u00e1me moc pod kontrolou.<\/p>\n

Co s\u00a0t\u00edm? Pokles reinvestic bych pova\u017eoval za prvn\u00ed p\u011bknou \u010dty\u0159i m\u00ednus, proto\u017ee na\u0161e z\u00e1vislost na zahrani\u010dn\u00edm kapit\u00e1lu by m\u011bla sp\u00ed\u0161e klesat. To bych vid\u011bl jako z\u00e1kladn\u00ed prvek n\u011bjak\u00e9 smyslupln\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 politiky. Nem\u011bli bychom p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017eet, jak se na n\u00e1s rozev\u00edraj\u00ed ciz\u00ed \u00fasta jako na p\u0159erostl\u00fd karban\u00e1tek.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e bude v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pod\u00edl dom\u00e1c\u00ed spot\u0159eby z\u00a0dom\u00e1c\u00ed produkce, nebude ani ta dovezen\u00e1 inflace tak stra\u0161n\u00e1. Ka\u017ed\u00e9ho napadnou dom\u00e1c\u00ed potraviny v\u00a0m\u00edstn\u00edch prodejn\u00e1ch nebo dom\u00e1c\u00edm \u0159et\u011bzci nebo dom\u00e1c\u00ed elekt\u0159ina z\u00a0obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f, kter\u00e9 mohou svobodn\u011b ignorovat Lipskou burzu. Podpora dom\u00e1c\u00ed bytov\u00e9 v\u00fdstavby m\u016f\u017ee prop\u00edchnout realitn\u00ed bublinu a oslabit vliv spekulant\u016f s\u00a0bydlen\u00edm. Dom\u00e1c\u00edmu zakotven\u00ed a demokratizaci financ\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159isp\u011bt rozvoj ob\u010dansk\u00fdch z\u00e1lo\u017een podle sta\u0159i\u010dk\u00e9ho vzoru prvn\u00ed republiky, tedy s\u00a0hierarchickou strukturou a\u017e po vlastn\u00ed \u201ecentr\u00e1ln\u00ed banku\u201c. Tedy jin\u00fdch z\u00e1lo\u017een ne\u017e n\u011bjak\u00e9 mafi\u00e1nsk\u00e9 centrum, kam se nos\u00ed miliony v\u00a0igelitk\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n

Siln\u00e1 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky, kter\u00e1 si vynutila obrovsk\u00e1 privilegia, u\u017e nepot\u0159ebuje \u017e\u00e1dnou st\u00e1tn\u00ed pomoc, ale ji velmi naopak pot\u0159ebuje ta dod\u00fdch\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed. Pohyb traktor\u016f na silnic\u00edch nazna\u010duje, \u017ee se to t\u011bm, kdo jinou mo\u017enost nemaj\u00ed, p\u0159est\u00e1v\u00e1 l\u00edbit. Jejich argumenty nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt nejp\u0159esn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ale v\u011b\u0159te tomu na\u0161tv\u00e1n\u00ed. To je skute\u010dn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Zbyn\u011bk Fiala<\/a><\/p>\n

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Pom\u011b\u0159ujeme-li korunu p\u0159es Big Mac Index \u010dasopisu The Economist, je nejbl\u00ed\u017ee Rumunsku nebo Ukrajin\u011b. Inflace…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":47237,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,683,433,90],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47236"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=47236"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47236\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47237"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=47236"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=47236"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=47236"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}