{"id":46807,"date":"2024-02-12T00:50:14","date_gmt":"2024-02-11T23:50:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=46807"},"modified":"2024-02-11T18:35:06","modified_gmt":"2024-02-11T17:35:06","slug":"andrew-korybko-myanmarsky-dvoulety-konflikt-neni-tak-jednoduchy-jak-se-na-prvni-pohled-zda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/02\/12\/andrew-korybko-myanmarsky-dvoulety-konflikt-neni-tak-jednoduchy-jak-se-na-prvni-pohled-zda\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Myanmarsk\u00fd dvoulet\u00fd konflikt nen\u00ed tak jednoduch\u00fd, jak se na prvn\u00ed pohled zd\u00e1"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"container\">\n<div class=\"single-post\">\n<article class=\"typography newsletter-post post\">\n<div class=\"\">\n<div class=\"available-content\">\n<div class=\"body markup\" dir=\"auto\">\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\"><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p><strong>Nejlep\u0161\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em je, \u017ee rusk\u00e1 pomoc pom\u016f\u017ee Tatmadaw z\u00edskat dostatek zisk\u016f na m\u00edst\u011b, aby protivl\u00e1dn\u00ed ozbrojen\u00e9 skupiny souhlasily s komplexn\u00ed m\u00edrovou dohodou zprost\u0159edkovanou \u010c\u00ednou, kter\u00e1 vyvrchol\u00ed spravedliv\u00fdmi politick\u00fdmi reformami, kter\u00e9 nakonec neutralizuj\u00ed zhoubn\u00fd z\u00e1padn\u00ed vliv, kter\u00fd riskuje \u201ebalkanizaci &#8220; zem\u011b.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Tento m\u011bs\u00edc uplynuly dva roky od posledn\u00ed f\u00e1ze ob\u010dansk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky v Myanmaru (d\u0159\u00edve Barmska) pot\u00e9, co arm\u00e1da (v tuzemsku zn\u00e1m\u00e1 jako Tatmadaw) <a href=\"https:\/\/astutenews.com\/2021\/02\/myanmar-needs-international-support-during-its-state-of-emergency\/\">zas\u00e1hla\u00a0<\/a>po \u00fadajn\u011b sporn\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch.\u00a0Z\u00e1padn\u00ed m\u00e9dia tento krok vyl\u00ed\u010dila jako pu\u010d proti b\u00fdval\u00e9 civiln\u00ed v\u016fdkyni Su \u0164ij, jej\u00ed\u017e p\u0159\u00edznivci nyn\u00ed bojuj\u00ed za demokracii, zat\u00edmco n\u011bkter\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed pova\u017euj\u00ed n\u00e1sledn\u00e9 n\u00e1sil\u00ed za z\u00e1padn\u00ed\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Hybrid-Wars-Indirect-Adaptive-Approach-ebook\/dp\/B014GA5SX8\">hybridn\u00ed\u00a0<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Law-Hybrid-War-Eastern-Hemisphere-ebook\/dp\/B07124QCZH\">v\u00e1lku\u00a0<\/a>zam\u011b\u0159enou na destabilizaci \u010c\u00edny.\u00a0Realita nen\u00ed tak jednoduch\u00e1, jak oba t\u00e1bory tvrd\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>Myanmar se nach\u00e1z\u00ed ve stavu ob\u010dansk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky od sv\u00e9 nez\u00e1vislosti v roce 1948 pot\u00e9, co \u00fa\u0159ady nedodr\u017eely dohodu z Panglongu, kter\u00e1 byla uzav\u0159ena o rok d\u0159\u00edve pro \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed vztah\u016f mezi jeho etnicky a region\u00e1ln\u011b r\u016fznorod\u00fdm obyvatelstvem z koloni\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00e9ry.\u00a0Intenzita a obrysy tohoto konfliktu se v pr\u016fb\u011bhu let m\u011bnily, ale v\u017edy byl poh\u00e1n\u011bn bojem mezi d\u0159\u00edve nejednotn\u00fdmi etnoregion\u00e1ln\u00edmi men\u0161inami proti centr\u00e1ln\u011b um\u00edst\u011bn\u00e9 bamarsk\u00e9 v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b o administrativn\u00ed charakter zem\u011b.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-46810 alignleft\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/may-mar-situace-300x215.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"598\" height=\"428\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/may-mar-situace-300x215.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/may-mar-situace-768x550.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/may-mar-situace.jpg 825w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 598px) 100vw, 598px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Prvn\u00ed jmenovan\u00ed cht\u011bj\u00ed v n\u011bkter\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpadech dokonce decentralizovat st\u00e1t, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e n\u011bkolik skupin ob\u010das koketuje s p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdm separatismem, zat\u00edmco druz\u00ed cht\u011bj\u00ed zachovat co nejv\u00edce centralizovan\u00fd st\u00e1t kv\u016fli strachu z \u201ebalkanizace\u201c. Je t\u0159eba tak\u00e9 zm\u00ednit, \u017ee men\u0161inov\u00e9 a v\u011bt\u0161inov\u00e9 regiony periferie jsou velmi bohat\u00e9 na nerostn\u00e9 a jin\u00e9 zdroje, zat\u00edmco regiony Bamar jsou \u017eivnou p\u016fdou zem\u011b.\u00a0Symbiotick\u00fd vztah mezi t\u011bmito dv\u011bma stranami hraje kl\u00ed\u010dovou roli v podn\u011bcov\u00e1n\u00ed tohoto konfliktu.<\/p>\n<p>Na politick\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u011b m\u011bla jejich konkurence tradi\u010dn\u011b podobu civiln\u011b-vojensk\u00e9ho nap\u011bt\u00ed, z nich\u017e prvn\u00ed skupina tak\u00e9 obecn\u011b up\u0159ednost\u0148uje proz\u00e1padn\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiku, zat\u00edmco druh\u00e1 je p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b izolacionistick\u00e1.\u00a0D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 p\u0159i sd\u00edlen\u00ed tohoto zjednodu\u0161en\u00e9ho shrnut\u00ed nejd\u00e9le trvaj\u00edc\u00ed ob\u010dansk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky na sv\u011bt\u011b je, aby \u010dten\u00e1\u0159i ocenili, \u017ee ob\u011b strany maj\u00ed legitimn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy, a aby si uv\u011bdomili, jak snadn\u00e9 je pro vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed s\u00edly zhor\u0161it ji\u017e existuj\u00edc\u00ed\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/orientalreview.su\/2016\/10\/11\/hybrid-wars-7-how-the-us-could-manufacture-a-hybrid-war-mess-in-myanmar-i\/\">nap\u011bt\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>mezi nimi p\u0159i prosazov\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00fdch vlastn\u00edch z\u00e1jm\u016f.<\/p>\n<p>P\u0159ed \u00fanorov\u00fdmi ud\u00e1lostmi roku 2021 zv\u00edt\u011bzila d\u0159\u00edve zak\u00e1zan\u00e1 N\u00e1rodn\u00ed liga pro demokracii (NLD) ikony z\u00e1padn\u00ed demokracie Su \u0164ij v parlamentn\u00edch volb\u00e1ch n\u011bkolik m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f p\u0159ed t\u00edm, ne\u017e Tatmadaw tvrdil, \u017ee byly zmanipulovan\u00e9.\u00a0Mezi \u00fa\u010dast\u00ed NLD ve volb\u00e1ch v roce 2015 a pot\u00e9, kdy z\u00edskala absolutn\u00ed parlamentn\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161inu, ale byla dr\u017eena pod kontrolou moc\u00ed veta Tatmadaw, Myanmar p\u0159ekalibroval svou zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiku od \u010c\u00edny sm\u011brem k USA, kdy\u017e byly zru\u0161eny sankce.<\/p>\n<p>Tatmadaw byla donucena p\u0159edchoz\u00edmi omezen\u00edmi ulo\u017een\u00fdmi po jej\u00edm druh\u00e9m p\u0159evzet\u00ed v roce 1988 do pozice t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 \u00fapln\u00e9 z\u00e1vislosti na Lidov\u00e9 republice, kterou vojen\u0161t\u00ed v\u016fdci pova\u017eovali za strategicky nev\u00fdhodnou, zat\u00edmco n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed v ob\u010dansk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti to pova\u017eovali za velmi poni\u017euj\u00edc\u00ed.\u00a0Tyto n\u00e1zory se spojily a ovlivnily politick\u00e9 reformy za posledn\u00ed desetilet\u00ed, b\u011bhem nich\u017e se de facto ministersk\u00e1 p\u0159edsedkyn\u011b (\u201est\u00e1tn\u00ed rada\u201c) Su \u0164ij vyvinula z proz\u00e1padn\u00ed\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/news.cgtn.com\/news\/2020-01-17\/In-The-Spotlight-Aung-San-Suu-Kyi-from-idealism-to-pragmatism-NkoXdk1I40\/index.html\">idealistky sp\u00ed\u0161e na pragmatiku\u00a0<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Na d\u016fkaz tohoto pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed hledala \u00fazk\u00e9 vztahy s \u010c\u00ednou v rozporu s o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm ve\u0159ejnosti doma i v zahrani\u010d\u00ed, ale to mohlo p\u0159i zp\u011btn\u00e9m pohledu zp\u016fsobit, \u017ee Tatmadaw byli ostra\u017eit\u00ed.\u00a0Nebylo by divu, kdyby tu\u0161ili, \u017ee jej\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsko-americk\u00fd akt vyva\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed mohl b\u00fdt p\u0159\u00edpravou na ob\u011btov\u00e1n\u00ed Myanmaru v jak\u00e9mkoli mo\u017en\u00e9m nov\u00e9m zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed, kde by urychlila jeho federalizaci prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm Panglongu\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/time.com\/4473849\/aung-san-suu-kyi-burma-panglong-summit\/\">2.0,\u00a0<\/a>aby si pak ka\u017ed\u00e1 supervelmoc mohla vybojovat sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed ekonomick\u00e1 l\u00e9na uvnit\u0159 n\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>Aby bylo jasno, v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 je cvi\u010den\u00edm zam\u011b\u0159en\u00fdm na vysv\u011btlen\u00ed politick\u00e9 intervence Tatmadaw p\u0159ed dv\u011bma lety, p\u0159esto\u017ee Su \u0164ij mezit\u00edm prok\u00e1zala, \u017ee je ve stejn\u00e9 vzd\u00e1lenosti mezi \u010c\u00ednou a USA, kter\u00e9 Z\u00e1pad za sv\u016fj postoj\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2018\/nov\/23\/aung-san-suu-kyi-fall-from-grace-myanmar\">kritizoval\u00a0<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2020\/4\/29\/outgoing-un-envoy-to-myanmar-utterly-disappointed-with-suu-kyi\">.\u00a0<\/a>sm\u011brem k\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/orientalreview.su\/2017\/09\/07\/rohingya-crisis-conflict-scenarios-reconciliation-proposals\/\">problematice Rohing\u016f\u00a0<\/a>.\u00a0Je tak\u00e9 pozoruhodn\u00e9, \u017ee se Myanmar po z\u00e1sahu ni\u010d\u00edc\u00edm vazby se Z\u00e1padem nevr\u00e1til ke sv\u00e9 p\u0159edchoz\u00ed t\u0159i desetilet\u00ed trvaj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00e1vislosti na \u010c\u00edn\u011b, ale op\u011bt sklouzl do izolacionismu.<\/p>\n<p>Z\u00e1rove\u0148 v\u0161ak Tatmadaw z\u016fstal odd\u00e1n\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/news.cgtn.com\/news\/2020-01-20\/Myanmar-s-CMEC-closely-resembles-Pakistan-s-CPEC-NoV3bFGxm8\/index.html\">\u010c\u00ednsko-myanmarsk\u00e9mu ekonomick\u00e9mu koridoru\u00a0<\/a>(CMEC).\u00a0Jedn\u00e1 se o jeden z nejstrategi\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00edch projekt\u016f iniciativy Belt &amp; Road Initiative (BRI), proto\u017ee usnad\u0148uje tok energie a zbo\u017e\u00ed do a z \u010c\u00edny, ani\u017e by proch\u00e1zel snadno blokovan\u00fdm pr\u016flivem Malacca. Su \u0164ij byla zodpov\u011bdn\u00e1 za uzav\u0159en\u00ed souvisej\u00edc\u00edch dohod se souhlasem Tatmadaw, kter\u00e1 v tom pokra\u010dovala i po sv\u00e9m uv\u011bzn\u011bn\u00ed z d\u016fvod\u016f prost\u00e9ho ekonomick\u00e9ho pragmatismu vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee nem\u011bli na v\u00fdb\u011br.<\/p>\n<p>USA jsou proti CMEC, proto\u017ee podkop\u00e1v\u00e1 jejich schopnost ovl\u00e1dat Peking, a proto je opr\u00e1vn\u011bn\u00e9 tvrzen\u00ed, \u017ee n\u00e1sil\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se odehr\u00e1lo v posledn\u00edch dvou letech, je sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lky proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b.\u00a0Nelze v\u0161ak pop\u0159\u00edt skute\u010dnost, \u017ee etnick\u00e9 men\u0161iny a p\u0159\u00edznivci p\u0159edchoz\u00ed (alespo\u0148 nomin\u00e1ln\u011b) vl\u00e1dy NLD veden\u00e9 civilisty maj\u00ed legitimn\u00ed st\u00ed\u017enosti, co\u017e komplikuje mor\u00e1lku podpory kter\u00e9koli dan\u00e9 strany v t\u00e9to posledn\u00ed f\u00e1zi dlouhodob\u00e9ho rozvoje zem\u011b.<\/p>\n<p>\u010c\u00edna v\u0161ak nesed\u00ed stranou, zat\u00edmco USA vedou svou hybridn\u00ed v\u00e1lku proti CMEC prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm podpory d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00edch rozd\u011blen\u00fdch etnicko-region\u00e1ln\u00edch men\u0161inov\u00fdch milic\u00ed (n\u011bkter\u00e9 z nich jsou Tatmadaw ozna\u010deny za teroristy) a prodemokratick\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edznivc\u016f etnick\u00fdch Bamar\u016f.\u00a0 Je zaj\u00edmav\u00e9, \u017ee je obvin\u011bn z tich\u00e9 podpory n\u011bkter\u00fdch perifern\u00edch sil, kter\u00e9 byly zapojeny do\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2024\/01\/good-rebels-or-good-timing-myanmars-mndaa-and-operation-1027\/\">\u201eOperace 1027\u201c v r\u00e1mci \u201eAliance t\u0159\u00ed bratr\u016f\u201c\u00a0<\/a>, kter\u00e1 p\u0159edstavuje prvn\u00ed velk\u00e9 sjednocen\u00ed protivl\u00e1dn\u00edch ozbrojen\u00fdch skupin.<\/p>\n<p>Tyto dva \u010dl\u00e1nky\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2023\/12\/19\/china\/myanmar-conflict-china-scam-centers-analysis-intl-hnk\/index.html\">zde\u00a0<\/a>a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.usnews.com\/news\/world\/articles\/2023-12-14\/rebel-fire-and-chinas-ire-inside-myanmars-anti-junta-offensive\">zde\u00a0<\/a>argumentuj\u00ed t\u00edm, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm mrkla a p\u0159ik\u00fdvla na ty etnick\u00e9 Hany, kte\u0159\u00ed byli historicky obvin\u011bni z podpory, aby odstranila p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00ed zlo\u010dineck\u00e9 a kyberzlo\u010dineck\u00e9 skupiny, se kter\u00fdmi Tatmadaw bu\u010f spolupracuje. nebo neup\u0159ednostnil demont\u00e1\u017e.\u00a0Na rozd\u00edl od USA, kter\u00e9 cht\u011bj\u00ed obnovit vl\u00e1du NLD, aby rozvr\u00e1tily CMEC podle jejich podez\u0159el\u00e9 faustovsk\u00e9 dohody (nemluv\u011b o \u201ebalkanizaci\u201c Myanmaru), \u010c\u00edna ji mo\u017en\u00e1 bude cht\u00edt pouze oslabit, aby ji pou\u010dila.<\/p>\n<p>I kdy\u017e by se n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed mohli vysm\u00edvat p\u0159edstav\u011b, \u017ee by \u010c\u00edna n\u011bkdy podpo\u0159ila protivl\u00e1dn\u00ed ozbrojenou skupinu na sv\u00e9m vlastn\u00edm prahu, nato\u017e kdy\u017e jsou USA v Myanmaru v celon\u00e1rodn\u00ed ofenziv\u011b, kter\u00e1 je od t\u00e9 doby utlumena po p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/myanmar-china-ceasefire-guerrillas-b60aa673a2fc38cd04e7dd781e3625c5\">zprost\u0159edkovan\u00e9m \u010c\u00ednou\u00a0<\/a>minul\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc, \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 to \u017ee Tatmadaw v listopadu\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.irrawaddy.com\/news\/myanmar-china-watch\/myanmar-regime-backed-rallies-denounce-china-accusing-it-of-backing-anti-junta-alliance.html\">povolil proti\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 protesty\u00a0<\/a>v Yangonu.\u00a0Vazby mezi t\u011bmito dv\u011bma zjevn\u011b nejsou tak pevn\u00e9, jak by je n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed mohli prezentovat, co\u017e prop\u016fj\u010duje d\u016fv\u011bryhodnost podez\u0159en\u00ed, \u017ee Peking hr\u00e1l v ned\u00e1vn\u00fdch ud\u00e1lostech n\u011bjakou roli.<\/p>\n<p>Pokud jde o n\u011b, formace \u201eAliance t\u0159\u00ed bratr\u016f\u201c byla pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b v\u00fdsledkem toho, \u017ee Amerika replikovala sv\u016fj model z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky z\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/thealtworld.com\/andrew_korybko\/natos-proxy-war-on-russia-through-ukraine-appears-to-be-winding-down\">Ukrajiny\u00a0<\/a>do Myanmaru, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e tyto skupiny vyzbrojovala p\u0159es sousedn\u00ed Thajsko, poskytovala jim satelitn\u00ed a dal\u0161\u00ed zpravodajsk\u00e9 informace o Tatmadaw a povzbuzovala je, aby se spojily do n\u00e1rodn\u00ed fronty. To vedlo k jejich \u201eOperaci 1027\u201c, pojmenovan\u00e9 po jej\u00edm zah\u00e1jen\u00ed 27. \u0159\u00edjna, kter\u00e1 vy\u00fastila v nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed protivl\u00e1dn\u00ed postup v historii od za\u010d\u00e1tku ob\u010dansk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.<\/p>\n<p>Ne\u017e uzav\u0159eme p\u00e1r post\u0159eh\u016f o dynamice tohoto konfliktu dva roky po zah\u00e1jen\u00ed jeho posledn\u00ed f\u00e1ze, zaslou\u017e\u00ed si zm\u00ednku, \u017ee rusko-myanmarsk\u00e9 vztahy dos\u00e1hly\u00a0v tomto obdob\u00ed\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/fulcrum.sg\/myanmar-russia-relations-since-the-coup-an-ever-tighter-embrace\/\">v\u016fbec nejlep\u0161\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b, zat\u00edmco indicko-americk\u00e9 vztahy byly od konce listopadu velmi napjat\u00e9.\u00a0<\/a>\u010cten\u00e1\u0159i se mohou dozv\u011bd\u011bt v\u00edce o prvn\u00edm\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/russian-myanmar-relations-are-a-key\">zde\u00a0<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/heres-how-the-russian-myanmar-strategic\">zde\u00a0<\/a>a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/the-inaugural-russian-myanmar-naval\">zde\u00a0<\/a>a o druh\u00e9m\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/indias-honeymoon-with-the-west-might\">zde\u00a0<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/bidens-reportedly-planned-snubbing\">zde\u00a0<\/a>a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/why-are-western-influencers-fearmongering\">zde\u00a0<\/a>, ale t\u00fdkaj\u00ed se role Ruska v zabr\u00e1n\u011bn\u00ed z\u00e1vislosti Myanmaru na \u010c\u00edn\u011b a touhy USA potrestat Indii za jej\u00ed nez\u00e1vislost.<\/p>\n<p>Jsou relevantn\u00ed, proto\u017ee Rusko se stalo hlavn\u00edm bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edm partnerem Myanmaru, zat\u00edmco nepokoje veden\u00e9 Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty riskuj\u00ed destabilizaci indick\u00fdch \u201eSedm sester\u201c, jako je\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/korybko-to-the-shillong-times-patricia\">ned\u00e1vno\u00a0<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/korybko-to-bloombergs-rebecca-choong\">neklidn\u00fd\u00a0<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/an-indian-professor-shared-some-crucial\">Manipur\u00a0<\/a>.\u00a0Lze tedy tvrdit, \u017ee USA pova\u017euj\u00ed tento konflikt za z\u00e1stupn\u00fd konflikt proti Rusku, kter\u00fd by mohl vyvinout v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed tlak i na Indii, zat\u00edmco \u010c\u00edna by mohla cht\u00edt p\u0159im\u011bt Myanmar zp\u011bt k z\u00e1vislosti prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm sv\u00e9 \u00fadajn\u00e9 podpory ur\u010dit\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch skupin a zp\u016fsobit probl\u00e9my jej\u00edmu st\u00e1tu. <a href=\"https:\/\/thealtworld.com\/andrew_korybko\/rics-differences-should-be-candidly-acknowledged-instead-of-denied-or-spun-by-alt-media\">Indick\u00e9mu rivalu <\/a>na severov\u00fdchod\u011b, kde maj\u00ed\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/chinas-latest-renaming-of-indian\">\u00fazemn\u00ed\u00a0<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/china-harshly-condemned-the-indian\">spor\u00a0<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>\u010cten\u00e1\u0159 by si m\u011bl pamatovat, \u017ee zat\u00edmco USA cht\u011bj\u00ed svrhnout Tatmadaw, aby prom\u011bnily Myanmar v loutkov\u00fd st\u00e1t, kter\u00fd strategicky p\u0159ekra\u010duje \u010d\u00ednsko-indickou hranici, \u010dist\u011b spekulativn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy \u010c\u00edny, jak vyplynuly z d\u0159\u00edve citovan\u00fdch zpr\u00e1v, by mohly b\u00fdt pouze oslabit je, aby u\u010dinila v\u00fdchovnou lekci. Dal\u0161\u00edm z\u00e1v\u011brem je, \u017ee oba dom\u00e1c\u00ed t\u00e1bory maj\u00ed legitimn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy, ale Tatmadaw je podporov\u00e1n Ruskem, zat\u00edmco \u201ealiance t\u0159\u00ed bratrstev\u201c je do ur\u010dit\u00e9 m\u00edry podporov\u00e1na USA a mo\u017en\u00e1 i \u010c\u00ednou.<\/p>\n<p>V\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e1 aliance m\u00e1 fungovat jako beranidlo USA p\u0159i zmocn\u011bn\u00ed se kontroly nad Myanmarem, ale tak\u00e9 souhlasila s p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00edm zprost\u0159edkovan\u00fdm \u010c\u00ednou z minul\u00e9ho m\u011bs\u00edce, co\u017e nazna\u010duje ur\u010dit\u00fd stupe\u0148 pragmatismu podobn\u00e9mu tomu, co p\u0159edv\u00e1d\u011bla Su \u0164ij.\u00a0Nejlep\u0161\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em proto je, \u017ee rusk\u00e1 pomoc pom\u016f\u017ee Tatmadaw z\u00edskat dostatek zisk\u016f na m\u00edst\u011b, aby ozbrojen\u00e9 skupiny souhlasily s komplexn\u00ed m\u00edrovou dohodou zprost\u0159edkovanou \u010c\u00ednou, kter\u00e1 vyvrchol\u00ed spravedliv\u00fdmi politick\u00fdmi reformami, kter\u00e9 nakonec neutralizuj\u00ed zhoubn\u00fd z\u00e1padn\u00ed vliv.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/myanmars-two-year-long-conflict-isnt\">Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-22017\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/andrew-korybko-300x300.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"201\" height=\"201\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/andrew-korybko-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/andrew-korybko-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/andrew-korybko.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 201px) 100vw, 201px\" \/><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"container\"><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nejlep\u0161\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em je, \u017ee rusk\u00e1 pomoc pom\u016f\u017ee Tatmadaw z\u00edskat dostatek zisk\u016f na m\u00edst\u011b, aby protivl\u00e1dn\u00ed&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":46808,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,6774,766,122],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46807"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46807"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46807\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":46809,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46807\/revisions\/46809"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/46808"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46807"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46807"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46807"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}