{"id":46007,"date":"2024-01-31T06:16:59","date_gmt":"2024-01-31T05:16:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=46007"},"modified":"2024-01-31T06:16:59","modified_gmt":"2024-01-31T05:16:59","slug":"jiri-paroubek-eskalace-konfliktu-v-zapadni-asii-na-strednim-vychode-na-spadnuti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/01\/31\/jiri-paroubek-eskalace-konfliktu-v-zapadni-asii-na-strednim-vychode-na-spadnuti\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek: Eskalace konfliktu v Z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asii (na St\u0159edn\u00edm v\u00fdchod\u011b) na spadnut\u00ed?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Ve sv\u011bt\u011b existuje dnes n\u011bkolik v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch ohnisek, kter\u00e1 by rozumn\u00ed politi\u010dt\u00ed v\u016fdci m\u011bli sp\u00ed\u0161e utlumovat ne\u017eli je roz\u0161i\u0159ovat.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Za\u010dnu od konce. P\u0159ed p\u00e1r dny do\u0161lo k\u00a0dronov\u00e9mu \u00fatoku na americkou z\u00e1kladnu, kter\u00e1 je um\u00edst\u011bna v\u00a0Jord\u00e1nsku, prakticky na hranic\u00edch S\u00fdrie. V\u0161ichni v\u00edme, \u017ee ameri\u010dt\u00ed voj\u00e1ci jsou jak v\u00a0Jord\u00e1nsku, tak v\u00a0S\u00fdrii (nepochybn\u011b bez souhlasu tamn\u00ed vl\u00e1dy B. Ass\u00e1da, jej\u00ed\u017e legitimitu ov\u0161em USA zpochyb\u0148uj\u00ed) a tak\u00e9 v\u00a0Ir\u00e1ku.<\/p>\n

Tato \u201edeta\u0161ovan\u00e1 pracovi\u0161t\u011b\u201c Pentagonu jsou v\u00a0dne\u0161n\u00ed m\u00e1lo p\u0159ehledn\u00e9 situaci v\u00a0Z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asii (nebo chcete-li na St\u0159edn\u00edm v\u00fdchod\u011b) p\u0159\u00edmo mucholapkou, kter\u00e1 p\u0159itahuje z\u00e1jem terorist\u016f v\u0161ech barev a sm\u011br\u016f. Je ot\u00e1zka, jestli pr\u00e1v\u011b v\u00a0t\u011bchto zem\u00edch \u2013 stejn\u011b jako v des\u00edtk\u00e1ch dal\u0161\u00edch zem\u00ed sv\u011bta \u2013 maj\u00ed ameri\u010dt\u00ed voj\u00e1ci b\u00fdt. Zda nenastal \u010das, aby z\u00e1kladny v\u00a0t\u011bchto zem\u00edch opustili a nechali tyto zem\u011b sv\u00e9mu v\u00fdvoji.<\/p>\n

Vzpom\u00edn\u00e1m si, jak m\u011b p\u0159i st\u00e1tn\u00ed n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bv\u011b Egypta, v\u00a0p\u0159edja\u0159\u00ed roku 2006, tehdej\u0161\u00ed egyptsk\u00fd prezident H. Mubarak v\u00a0dlouh\u00e9m rozhovoru, kter\u00fd jsme spolu vedli, vysv\u011btloval, pro\u010d je v\u00a0z\u00e1jmu Z\u00e1padu a jeho spojenc\u016f v\u010detn\u011b Egypta v\u00a0Z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asii a v\u00a0Severn\u00ed Africe, aby nedo\u0161lo k \u00fatoku USA a Izraele na \u00cdr\u00e1n. Tuto informaci o mo\u017en\u00e9m \u00fatoku v\u016fbec nepova\u017eoval za kachnu, ale naopak ji bral velmi v\u00e1\u017en\u011b s t\u00edm, \u017ee pokud k\u00a0takov\u00e9mu ataku na \u00cdr\u00e1n dojde, po\u0161kod\u00ed to v\u0161echny v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 spojence Z\u00e1padu v\u00a0\u0161irok\u00e9 oblasti Afriky a Asie. Po\u017e\u00e1dal m\u011b proto, abych na z\u00e1klad\u011b na\u0161\u00ed debaty a jeho varov\u00e1n\u00ed vypracoval memorandum, kter\u00e9 pak roze\u0161lu \u0161\u00e9f\u016fm vl\u00e1d v\u0161ech zem\u00ed EU a NATO. To jsem tak\u00e9 po sv\u00e9m n\u00e1vratu do Prahy ud\u011blal. K\u00a0\u00fatoku na \u00cdr\u00e1n nedo\u0161lo. Nep\u0159ece\u0148uji svou roli v\u00a0tomto spr\u00e1vn\u00e9m rozhodnut\u00ed, kter\u00e9 ud\u011blali Pentagon a Izraelci, ale douf\u00e1m, \u017ee n\u011bjak\u00e9 mal\u00e9 procento m\u00e9 memorandum toto rozhodnut\u00ed ovlivnilo.<\/p>\n

Izrael v\u00a0tuto chv\u00edli se svou silnou arm\u00e1dou \u00fato\u010d\u00ed na pozice teroristick\u00e9ho hnut\u00ed Ham\u00e1s v\u00a0ji\u017en\u00ed Gaze, kde st\u00e1le je\u0161t\u011b existuje n\u011bkolik set kilometr\u016f tunel\u016f, v\u00a0nich\u017e Ham\u00e1s skr\u00fdv\u00e1 podstatnou \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00fdch ozbrojenc\u016f a vojensk\u00e9 s\u00edly. Bohu\u017eel v\u0161ak tak\u00e9 zhruba stovku \u017eiv\u00fdch izraelsk\u00fdch rukojm\u00edch. Izraelsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da, a tedy i americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da, jsou ve velmi nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00e9 situaci.<\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee v\u00a0dohledn\u00e9 dob\u011b nelze Ham\u00e1s vojensky porazit a vystrnadit ho z\u00a0Gazy. Nikdo z\u00a0izraelsk\u00fdch, ani americk\u00fdch politik\u016f nep\u0159i\u0161el zat\u00edm s\u00a0\u0159e\u0161en\u00edm, kter\u00e9 by bylo akceptovateln\u00e9 pro druhou stranu, kter\u00e1 sice p\u0159edstavuje teroristick\u00e9 hnut\u00ed a m\u00e1 na rukou krev izraelsk\u00fdch civilist\u016f, na kter\u00e9 ne\u010dekan\u011b a bez varov\u00e1n\u00ed za\u00fato\u010dilo 7. \u0159\u00edjna minul\u00e9ho roku. Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b je Izrael a tedy i USA pod velk\u00fdm tlakem mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed, a to nejen \u201eglob\u00e1ln\u00edho Jihu\u201c.<\/p>\n

Je to pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b \u00cdr\u00e1n, kter\u00fd vyzbrojil ozbrojence H\u00fat\u00ed\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed \u00fato\u010d\u00ed na obchodn\u00ed lod\u011b v\u00a0Rud\u00e9m mo\u0159i. A znesnad\u0148uje tak sv\u011btov\u00fd obchod.<\/p>\n

Je ot\u00e1zka, do jak\u00e9 m\u00edry jsou dnes ozbrojenci H\u00fat\u00ed\u016f ovl\u00e1d\u00e1ni pr\u00e1v\u011b \u00cdr\u00e1nem, kter\u00fd je nepochybn\u011b spojencem \u010c\u00edny. \u010c\u00edna nem\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd z\u00e1jem na naru\u0161en\u00ed \u010di dokonce p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed obchodn\u00edch cest do Suezsk\u00e9ho pr\u016fplavu.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Prost\u011b H\u00fat\u00edov\u00e9 se mohli tak \u0159\u00edkaj\u00edc utrhnout z \u0159et\u011bzu.<\/p>\n

Konec konc\u016f, zjevn\u00fd klient \u00cdr\u00e1nu, hnut\u00ed Hizball\u00e1h v\u00a0ji\u017en\u00edm Libanonu, sice \u00fato\u010d\u00ed na Izrael, ale jeho \u00fatoky maj\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e omezen\u00fd charakter. A Hizball\u00e1h se rozhodn\u011b nechce pustit do v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho dobrodru\u017estv\u00ed typu p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9ho v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho st\u0159etu s\u00a0izraelskou arm\u00e1dou. Hnut\u00ed Hizball\u00e1h jist\u011b pln\u00ed p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00e9ho nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edho sponzora, kter\u00fdm je pr\u00e1v\u011b \u00cdr\u00e1n.<\/p>\n

N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed ameri\u010dt\u00ed kongresmani z\u00a0republik\u00e1nsk\u00e9 strany se v\u00a0t\u011bchto dnech do\u017eaduj\u00ed razantn\u00ed odvety v\u016f\u010di \u00cdr\u00e1nu za zabit\u00ed t\u0159\u00ed americk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f v\u00a0Jord\u00e1nsku a zran\u011bn\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 dvou des\u00edtek dal\u0161\u00edch Ameri\u010dan\u016f p\u0159i zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9m dronov\u00e9m \u00fatoku na z\u00e1kladnu.<\/p>\n

Uva\u017euje se nahlas o \u00faderech na c\u00edle v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu, co\u017e mohou b\u00fdt jak \u00fatoky na vybran\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 c\u00edle, tak na vedouc\u00ed osobnosti \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy \u010di st\u00e1tu.<\/p>\n

Nevid\u00edm to v\u016fbec jako moudr\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, proto\u017ee n\u00e1sil\u00ed plod\u00ed jen n\u00e1sil\u00ed. A \u00fatok na \u00cdr\u00e1n, kter\u00fd je mj. tak\u00e9 spojencem Egypta v\u00a0r\u00e1mci sdru\u017een\u00ed BRICS, by mohl destabilizovat zat\u00edm klidn\u00e9 Jord\u00e1nsko, jeho\u017e polovina obyvatel je palestinsk\u00e9ho p\u016fvodu. Prost\u011b nastal \u010das pro diplomacii.<\/p>\n

Bylo by nanejv\u00fd\u0161 rozumn\u00e9, kdyby Katar s\u00a0Egyptem domluvili co nejdel\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed mezi Izraelem a Ham\u00e1sem, b\u011bhem kter\u00e9ho by se vr\u00e1tili v\u00a0p\u0159esn\u00e9m \u010dasov\u00e9m harmonogramu izrael\u0161t\u00ed civilist\u00e9 a voj\u00e1ci, zajat\u00ed Ham\u00e1sem 7. \u0159\u00edjna, zp\u011bt do Izraele. A Izrael by m\u011bl pomoc\u00ed prost\u0159edn\u00edk\u016f a sv\u00fdch vazeb na konzervativn\u00ed arabsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty (Egypt, Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie, Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty) hledat cestu k\u00a0definitivn\u00edmu m\u00edrov\u00e9mu \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed konfliktu.<\/p>\n

Jakkoliv je nyn\u00ed t\u011b\u017eko p\u0159edstaviteln\u00e9 dvoust\u00e1tn\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed na \u00fazem\u00ed historick\u00e9 Palestiny, kde by vedle sebe existoval jak Izraelsk\u00fd, tak Palestinsk\u00fd st\u00e1t a \u017eili by spolu v\u00a0m\u00edru, je t\u0159eba se o to pokusit.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b je situace v Z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asii natolik v\u00fdbu\u0161n\u00e1, \u017ee p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 situaci, ve kter\u00e9 byl Z\u00e1padn\u00ed Balk\u00e1n kr\u00e1tce p\u0159ed zah\u00e1jen\u00edm I. sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. Te\u010f jde o to, aby v\u0161ichni \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edci konfliktu zachovali rozvahu. Pokud bude konflikt eskalovat, m\u016f\u017ee se rozr\u016fst do mnohem \u0161ir\u0161\u00edch rozm\u011br\u016f, ne\u017eli o jak\u00fdch jsme v\u00a0tuto chv\u00edli ochotni uva\u017eovat. A tou rozn\u011btkou by byly \u00fatoky USA, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b USA a Velk\u00e9 Brit\u00e1nie a Izraele na vybran\u00e9 c\u00edle na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Je pot\u0159eba vn\u00edmat tak\u00e9 fakt, \u017ee ir\u00e1ck\u00e1 vl\u00e1da udr\u017euje form\u00e1ln\u011b p\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 vztahy se Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty, ale na \u00fazem\u00ed Ir\u00e1ku jsou tak\u00e9 um\u00edst\u011bny \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 milice a v\u011bt\u0161ina obyvatel Ir\u00e1ku je \u0161\u00editsk\u00e1. Je tedy sv\u00fdm srdcem bl\u00edzko sv\u00fdm souv\u011brc\u016fm v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/p>\n

A pokud dnes Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty nemaj\u00ed vlastn\u011b \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd velk\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd z\u00e1jem na dovozu energetick\u00fdch surovin z\u00a0oblasti Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu, nebo\u0165 jsou v\u00a0z\u00e1sad\u011b v t\u011bchto komodit\u00e1ch sob\u011bsta\u010dn\u00e9, naopak Evropsk\u00e1 unie, v\u010detn\u011b \u010ceska tento z\u00e1jem m\u00edt mus\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\u010cesk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da se sna\u017e\u00ed zbavit z\u00e1vislosti na dovozu energetick\u00fdch surovin z\u00a0Ruska, proto dnes nem\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd z\u00e1jem na roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed konfliktu v Z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asii na \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed spektrum zem\u00ed, z\u00a0nich\u017e se energetick\u00e9 suroviny do sv\u011bta vyv\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ve sv\u011bt\u011b existuje dnes n\u011bkolik v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch ohnisek, kter\u00e1 by rozumn\u00ed politi\u010dt\u00ed v\u016fdci m\u011bli sp\u00ed\u0161e utlumovat…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":45055,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[760,348,2306,107,29,220,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46007"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46007"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46007\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/45055"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46007"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46007"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46007"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}