{"id":45547,"date":"2024-01-25T00:38:14","date_gmt":"2024-01-24T23:38:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=45547"},"modified":"2024-01-24T18:18:59","modified_gmt":"2024-01-24T17:18:59","slug":"zbynek-fiala-trumpa-uz-nikdo-nezastavi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/01\/25\/zbynek-fiala-trumpa-uz-nikdo-nezastavi\/","title":{"rendered":"Zbyn\u011bk Fiala: Trumpa u\u017e nikdo nezastav\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Republik\u00e1nsk\u00e9 prim\u00e1rky ve st\u00e1t\u011b New Hampshire potvrdily dominanci Donalda Trumpa a zbavily \u0161anc\u00ed jeho zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed vyz\u00fdvatelku Nikki Haleyovou, i kdy\u017e ona sama si to nechce p\u0159iznat.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sta\u010dila dv\u011b kola republik\u00e1nsk\u00fdch prim\u00e1rek, minul\u00fd t\u00fdden volebn\u00ed shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed (caucus<\/em>) ve st\u00e1t\u011b Iowa a nyn\u00ed otev\u0159en\u00e9 hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed (i stranicky neregistrovan\u00fdch voli\u010d\u016f) ve st\u00e1t\u011b New Hampshire, aby b\u00fdval\u00fd prezident Donald Trump dostal dvakr\u00e1t tolik deleg\u00e1t\u016f na \u010dervencovou volebn\u00ed konferenci v Milwaukee jako jeho vyz\u00fdvatelka Nikky Haleyov\u00e1. Trump te\u010f z\u00edskal 12 deleg\u00e1t\u016f a m\u00e1 jich i s\u00a0v\u00fdsledky z\u00a0Iowy 31, zat\u00edmco Haleyov\u00e1 o polovinu m\u00e9n\u011b. Ostatn\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00ed uchaze\u010di jako DeSantis nebo Christie u\u017e odpadli.<\/p>\n

Te\u010f to nejsp\u00ed\u0161 zabal\u00ed i tato b\u00fdval\u00e1 z\u00e1stupkyn\u011b Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f u OSN. T\u011b\u017eko \u010dekat n\u011bco jin\u00e9ho. Ona si sice libuje, \u017ee sn\u00ed\u017eila Trump\u016fv n\u00e1skok ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0drsnou por\u00e1\u017ekou ve st\u00e1t\u011b Iowa skoro na deset procentn\u00edch bod\u016f, ale tahle \u201ekr\u00e1sn\u00e1 \u010dty\u0159i m\u00ednus\u201c m\u00e1lokoho p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed, aby sypal dal\u0161\u00ed pen\u00edze. Pokud by toti\u017e cht\u011bla prezidentskou nominaci vyhr\u00e1t, musela by te\u010f nikoliv stahovat n\u00e1skok, ale Trumpa v\u00fdrazn\u011b por\u00e1\u017eet. To se nestalo, a ani nestane, proto\u017ee pro p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed prim\u00e1rky ve st\u00e1t\u011b Ji\u017en\u00ed Karolina m\u00e1 Trump n\u00e1skok p\u0159es 30 bod\u016f.<\/p>\n

Logika volebn\u00edho boje je ne\u00faprosn\u00e1. Te\u010f je na tom Trump dob\u0159e, ale dal\u0161\u00ed st\u00e1ty mu jsou v\u011bt\u0161inou je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce naklon\u011bny, tak\u017ee v\u00a0pozd\u011bj\u0161\u00edch kolech m\u00e1 na tom b\u00fdt je\u0161t\u011b mnohem l\u00edp. Sta\u010d\u00ed se pod\u00edvat na preference republik\u00e1nsk\u00fdch voli\u010d\u016f v\u00a0cel\u00fdch USA, kde Trump vede s\u00a066 procenty. Pak u\u017e je vlastn\u011b jedno, kolik m\u00e1 ten druh\u00fd. Plat\u00edm to, dokonce i kdy\u017e Trump n\u011bkde uklouzne, proto\u017ee t\u00edm druh\u00fdm je Haleyov\u00e1 s\u00a0pouh\u00fdmi 11,5 procenta. A posledn\u00ed pr\u016fzkumy po Iow\u011b u\u017e p\u0159inesly pom\u011bry 71:9 nebo 73:14, tak\u017ee Trump si stoj\u00ed mezi Republik\u00e1ny v\u00a0USA skoro jako Kim v\u00a0Severn\u00ed Koreji.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.realclearpolling.com\/polls\/president\/republican-primary\/2024\/national<\/a><\/p>\n

Detailn\u011b to lze pozorovat na port\u00e1lu 538 (podle po\u010dtu poslanc\u016f ve sn\u011bmovn\u011b). Najdeme tam pl\u00e1n volebn\u00edch prorok\u016f, kter\u00fd vych\u00e1z\u00ed z\u00a0p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje cel\u00e9 s\u00e9rie prim\u00e1rek, tedy v\u00a0cel\u00fdch USA. Trump by podle tohoto pl\u00e1nu sm\u011b\u0159oval k\u00a0v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed, i kdyby te\u010f m\u011bl jen 20 deleg\u00e1t\u016f. Zato Haleyov\u00e1 by jich musela m\u00edt po New Hampshire 48, aby si ud\u011blala n\u00e1skok, kter\u00fd ji udr\u017e\u00ed ve h\u0159e. M\u00edsto toho m\u00e1 i s\u00a09 deleg\u00e1ty z\u00a0minul\u00e9ho t\u00fddne dohromady jen 16 deleg\u00e1t\u016f. Te\u010f u\u017e m\u016f\u017ee \u010dekat jen na p\u0159\u00edlet asteroidu, kter\u00fd tref\u00ed Trumpa p\u0159\u00edmo o hlavy.<\/p>\n

P\u0159eva\u017euj\u00ed proto koment\u00e1\u0159e, \u017ee pokud Haleyov\u00e1 nevyhr\u00e1la v\u00a0New Hampshire, kam ke v\u0161emu soust\u0159edila maximum volebn\u00edch fond\u016f i osobn\u00edho nasazen\u00ed v\u00a0m\u00edtinc\u00edch prakticky ve v\u0161ech okrsc\u00edch, pak u\u017e nevyhraje nikde. A \u017ee republik\u00e1nsk\u00e9 prim\u00e1rky prakticky skon\u010dily\u2026<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/538\/trump-haley-new-hampshire-analysis\/story<\/a><\/p>\n

Kdo \u010dekal, jak to vypad\u00e1 u Demokrat\u016f, kde by m\u011bl jednozna\u010dn\u011b v\u00e9st prezident Joe Biden, bude zmaten. Nedozv\u00ed se nic. Demokrat\u00e9 v\u00a0tomto term\u00ednu New Hampshire prost\u011b vypustili. Ve volebn\u00edm kalend\u00e1\u0159i jej najdete, v\u017edy\u0165 tam volby deleg\u00e1t\u016f na stranick\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed konference, kde se vyberou kandid\u00e1ti na prezidenta Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, v\u017edycky za\u010d\u00ednaly. Dokonce to maj\u00ed v\u00a0New Hampshire uz\u00e1kon\u011bno, \u017ee cel\u00fd volebn\u00ed cyklus za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 u nich. V\u00a0kalend\u00e1\u0159i je to naps\u00e1no, ale plat\u00ed to jen trochu.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.270towin.com\/2024-presidential-election-calendar\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Republik\u00e1ni se minule zalekli p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 liber\u00e1ln\u00ed orientace tam\u011bj\u0161\u00edch voli\u010d\u016f, a proto\u017ee pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed n\u011bjakou startovn\u00ed pecku, dali p\u0159ednost o t\u00fdden d\u0159\u00edve st\u00e1tu Iowa. Ani Demokrat\u00e9 se nec\u00edt\u00ed v\u00a0New Hampshire dostate\u010dn\u011b siln\u00ed, a tak tam ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed prim\u00e1rky odp\u00edskali. N\u00e1rodn\u00ed v\u00fdbor Demokratick\u00e9 strany dosp\u011bl k\u00a0rozumn\u00e9mu rozhodnut\u00ed, \u017ee nem\u00e1 cenu organizovat volby, kter\u00e9 nem\u016f\u017eeme vyhr\u00e1t. Demokrati jsme, to jo, ale volby plat\u00ed jen kdy\u017e vyhrajeme my.<\/p>\n

N\u011bjak\u00e9 hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed demokratick\u00fdch voli\u010d\u016f v\u00a0New Hampshire prob\u011bhlo, ale Joe Biden nebyl na seznamu. Uveden\u00fd seznam byl nav\u00edc zkr\u00e1cen na deset m\u00edst, a tak si v\u00a0t\u00e9to \u201esout\u011b\u017ei kr\u00e1sy\u201c p\u00e1r politik\u016f z\u00a0druh\u00e9 lajny vylep\u0161ovalo sk\u00f3re popularity bez \u0161anc\u00ed na \u00fa\u010dast na volebn\u00ed konferenci. Nerozhodnost N\u00e1rodn\u00edho v\u00fdboru Demokratick\u00e9 strany je pochopiteln\u00e1, jsou ze sv\u00e9ho sta\u0159i\u010dk\u00e9ho kandid\u00e1ta zoufal\u00ed. Moc si v\u0161ak nepomohou, sp\u00ed\u0161e naopak. Dali t\u00edm Republik\u00e1n\u016fm jedine\u010dnou p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost, jak na sebe strhnout pozornost hned na za\u010d\u00e1tku volebn\u00edho boje. Donald Trump z\u00edskal to, \u010demu se ve fyzice \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 hybnost (moment<\/em>), \u010dili energii, kter\u00e1 dok\u00e1\u017ee strhnout i spoustu nerozhodnut\u00fdch voli\u010d\u016f.<\/p>\n

Nejcenn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdsledkem prim\u00e1rek v New Hampshire v\u0161ak nen\u00ed v\u00fdhra Trumpa nebo nepor\u00e1\u017eka Bidena, ale praktick\u00e9 vy\u0159azen\u00ed Haleyov\u00e9 ze hry. P\u0159ed d\u011bsivou p\u0159edstavou, \u017ee by se stala prezidentkou, varoval Ross Douthat v\u00a0n\u00e1zorov\u00e9 rubrice na str\u00e1nk\u00e1ch New York Times:<\/p>\n

\u201eA\u017e se budou ps\u00e1t d\u011bjiny americk\u00e9ho \u00fapadku 21. stolet\u00ed, z\u00e1sadn\u00ed kapitolou nebude Trump, ale jeden z jeho p\u0159edch\u016fdc\u016f, George W. Bush: lep\u0161\u00ed \u010dlov\u011bk ne\u017e Trump, schopn\u00fd politik, kter\u00fd m\u00e1 na sv\u00e9m kont\u011b \u0159adu rozumn\u00fdch politik, ale tak\u00e9 architekt arogantn\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky, jej\u00ed\u017e katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed dopady se st\u00e1le \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed zem\u00ed i sv\u011btem.<\/em><\/p>\n

V\u00e1lka v Ir\u00e1ku a pomalej\u0161\u00ed a del\u0161\u00ed selh\u00e1n\u00ed v Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu nep\u0159inesly jen za\u010d\u00e1tek rozpadu Pax Americana. Zdiskreditovaly tak\u00e9 americk\u00fd establishment doma, rozvr\u00e1tily prav\u00fd st\u0159ed a podkopaly lev\u00fd st\u0159ed, rozpustily d\u016fv\u011bru v politiky, st\u00e1tn\u00ed \u00fa\u0159ady a dokonce i v samotnou arm\u00e1du, a to tu jsou tak\u00e9 soci\u00e1ln\u00ed dopady v\u00e1lky, kter\u00e9 p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00ed v epidemii opi\u00e1t\u016f a krizi du\u0161evn\u00edho zdrav\u00ed.<\/em><\/p>\n

Haleyov\u00e1 nen\u00ed zrovna Republik\u00e1nkou Bushova typu. Sp\u00ed\u0161e sd\u00edl\u00ed n\u00e1ladu, kter\u00e1 se v republik\u00e1nsk\u00e9m establishmentu objevila po p\u00e1du bushismu. Ten p\u0159i\u010d\u00edtal ne\u00fasp\u011bchy tohoto prezidentstv\u00ed sp\u00ed\u0161e nadm\u011brn\u00fdm v\u00fddaj\u016fm ne\u017e Ir\u00e1ku a p\u0159edstavoval si republik\u00e1nskou budoucnost definovanou fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed p\u0159\u00edsnost\u00ed, um\u00edrn\u011bnost\u00ed v soci\u00e1ln\u00edch ot\u00e1zk\u00e1ch a pln\u00fdm spektrem jest\u0159\u00e1b\u00edho chov\u00e1n\u00ed v zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politice.\u201c<\/em><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/01\/20\/opinion\/nikki-haley-trump-foreign-policy.html<\/a><\/p>\n

Zbyn\u011bk Fiala<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Republik\u00e1nsk\u00e9 prim\u00e1rky ve st\u00e1t\u011b New Hampshire potvrdily dominanci Donalda Trumpa a zbavily \u0161anc\u00ed jeho zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":11757,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1352,29,37,27],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45547"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45547"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45547\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11757"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45547"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45547"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45547"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}