{"id":45515,"date":"2024-01-25T00:39:51","date_gmt":"2024-01-24T23:39:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=45515"},"modified":"2024-01-24T16:36:47","modified_gmt":"2024-01-24T15:36:47","slug":"nove-prognozy-pruzkumu-v-evropskych-volbach-budou-dominovat-populisticke-pravicove-strany","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/01\/25\/nove-prognozy-pruzkumu-v-evropskych-volbach-budou-dominovat-populisticke-pravicove-strany\/","title":{"rendered":"Nov\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy pr\u016fzkum\u016f: V evropsk\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch budou dominovat populistick\u00e9 pravicov\u00e9 strany"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Berl\u00ednsk\u00fd think-tank odhaduje, \u017ee \u201epoprv\u00e9 v historii Evropsk\u00e9ho parlamentu by se mohly vytvo\u0159it v\u011bt\u0161inov\u00e9 koalice napravo\u201c<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Volby do Evropsk\u00e9ho parlamentu, kter\u00e9 se budou konat v \u010dervnu, by mohly b\u00fdt zat\u00edm nejv\u00fdbu\u0161n\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e nov\u00e9 pr\u016fzkumy nazna\u010duj\u00ed zna\u010dn\u00fd posun v jeho slo\u017een\u00ed k pravicov\u011b populistick\u00fdm stran\u00e1m.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle\u00a0<\/span>v\u00fdzkumu<\/span><\/a> proveden\u00e9ho Evropskou radou pro zahrani\u010dn\u00ed vztahy (ECFR) bude legislativa EU rozt\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u011bn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e kdykoli p\u0159edt\u00edm, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e \u201estar\u00e1 garda\u201c st\u0159edolev\u00e9 liber\u00e1ln\u00ed koalice bude bojovat o udr\u017een\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161iny, kter\u00e1 j\u00ed v sou\u010dasnosti umo\u017e\u0148uje dominovat agend\u011b.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eHlavn\u00edmi v\u00edt\u011bzi voleb bude populistick\u00e1 pravice.\u00a0Hlavn\u00edm v\u00edt\u011bzem bude <\/span>radik\u00e1ln\u011b pravicov\u00e1 skupina Identity and Democracy (ID), od n\u00ed\u017e o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1me, \u017ee z\u00edsk\u00e1 40 k\u0159esel a s<\/span>
\nt\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 100 europoslanci se stane t\u0159et\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed skupinou v nov\u00e9m parlamentu, p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bl \u201c berl\u00ednsk\u00fd think-tank.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 se, \u017ee skupina ID bude dominovat zejm\u00e9na ve Francii.\u00a0Skupina, k n\u00ed\u017e je p\u0159idru\u017eena Jordan Bardella’s Rassemblement National, by z\u00edskala nejv\u00edce hlas\u016f, shrom\u00e1\u017edila by 30 k\u0159esel z dostupn\u00fdch 81. Skupina by byla nejobl\u00edben\u011bj\u0161\u00ed volbou tak\u00e9 v Nizozemsku, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e by z 31 nab\u00edzen\u00fdch k\u0159esel z\u00edskala 10 k\u0159esel a pokra\u010dovala by v \u00fasp\u011bch Strany svobody Geerta Wilderse (PVV), kter\u00e1 ned\u00e1vno vyhr\u00e1la nizozemsk\u00e9 volby.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Mezit\u00edm se tak\u00e9 p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee st\u0159edoprav\u00e1 skupina Evropsk\u00fdch konzervativc\u016f a reformist\u016f (ECR) z\u00edsk\u00e1 18 k\u0159esel kv\u016fli vzestupu strany Brat\u0159i It\u00e1lie (FdI) italsk\u00e9ho premi\u00e9ra Giorgia Meloniho a nedeklarovan\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed strany v\u010detn\u011b vl\u00e1dn\u00edho Fideszu v Ma\u010farsku by mohly tak\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161it jejich celkov\u00fd po\u010det poslaneck\u00fdch m\u00edst.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eO\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1me, \u017ee skupiny ECR a ID budou spole\u010dn\u011b tvo\u0159it 25 procent poslanc\u016f EP a budou m\u00edt <\/span>poprv\u00e9 dohromady v\u00edce k\u0159esel ne\u017e Evropsk\u00e1 lidov\u00e1 strana (EPP) nebo Socialist\u00e9 a demokrat\u00e9 (S&D),\u201c uvedla Evropsk\u00e1 rada pro zahrani\u010dn\u00ed vztahy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdzkum nazna\u010duje, \u017ee \u201esuper velk\u00e1 koalice\u201c EPP, S&D a liber\u00e1l\u016f Renew Europe by mohla m\u00edt pot\u00ed\u017ee o ovl\u00e1dnut\u00ed sn\u011bmovny v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm parlamentu, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1, \u017ee skupiny by mohly m\u00edt pouze 54 procent k\u0159esel ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed se sou\u010dasn\u00fdmi 60 procenty.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eS pr\u016fm\u011brnou \u00farovn\u00ed soudr\u017enosti hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed v r\u00e1mci skupin v Evropsk\u00e9m parlamentu \u2013 co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee ka\u017ed\u00e1 skupina nem\u016f\u017ee v\u017edy zaru\u010dit, \u017ee v\u0161ichni jej\u00ed poslanci EP budou dodr\u017eovat pokyny skupin pro hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed \u2013 nemus\u00ed t\u011bmto t\u0159em skupin\u00e1m sta\u010dit 54 procent k\u0159esel k zaru\u010den\u00ed v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed a v\u011bt\u0161inu, kdy\u017e hlasuj\u00ed spole\u010dn\u011b,\u201c p\u00ed\u0161e think-tank.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rovn\u011b\u017e poznamenal, \u017ee by se mohla vytvo\u0159it potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed \u201epopulistick\u00e1 pravicov\u00e1 koalice\u201c mezi EPP, ECR a skupinami ID, kter\u00e1 by mohla z\u00edskat 49 procent k\u0159esel a kontrolovat agendu s podporou nedeklarovan\u00fdch poslanc\u016f EP.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eV\u011bt\u0161ina neza\u0159azen\u00fdch europoslanc\u016f je z krajn\u011b pravicov\u00fdch stran, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee s jejich <\/span>podporou by se poprv\u00e9 v historii Evropsk\u00e9ho parlamentu mohly vytvo\u0159it v\u011bt\u0161inov\u00e9 koalice napravo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Krom\u011b toho se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee po\u010det protievropsk\u00fdch z\u00e1konod\u00e1rc\u016f m\u00ed\u0159\u00edc\u00edch do \u0160trasburku v\u00fdrazn\u011b vzroste z 30 procent na 37 procent, co\u017e poskytne v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed zastoupen\u00ed st\u00e1le rostouc\u00edmu po\u010dtu voli\u010d\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed jsou roz\u010darov\u00e1ni ze sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho sm\u011brov\u00e1n\u00ed Evropsk\u00e9 unie.<\/span><\/p>\n

Evropsk\u00e1 rada pro zahrani\u010dn\u00ed vztahy napsala, \u017ee jej\u00ed zpr\u00e1va by m\u011bla slou\u017eit jako \u201ebud\u00ed\u010dek\u201c pro \u201eevropsk\u00e9 tv\u016frce politik ohledn\u011b toho, co je v s\u00e1zce ve volb\u00e1ch do Evropsk\u00e9ho parlamentu v roce 2024\u201c, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e varovala, \u017ee dramatick\u00e1 zm\u011bna ve slo\u017een\u00ed z\u00e1konod\u00e1rn\u00e9ho sboru by mohla zaznamenat p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok konec f\u00e1ze bruselsk\u00e9 Zelen\u00e9 dohody a zablokov\u00e1n\u00ed pro p\u0159\u00edstup EU k imigraci, budouc\u00ed roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed bloku a jej\u00ed v sou\u010dasnosti neochv\u011bjnou podporu Ukrajin\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed tak\u00e9 funguje jako p\u0159edzv\u011bst nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch celost\u00e1tn\u00edch voleb v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch n\u011bkolika letech, kde by populistick\u00e1 pravice mohla tak\u00e9 dos\u00e1hnout zna\u010dn\u00fdch zisk\u016f, v\u010detn\u011b evropsk\u00e9 velmoci N\u011bmecka.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Berl\u00ednsk\u00fd think-tank odhaduje, \u017ee \u201epoprv\u00e9 v historii Evropsk\u00e9ho parlamentu by se mohly vytvo\u0159it v\u011bt\u0161inov\u00e9 koalice…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":39146,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[41,84,3321,620,27],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45515"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45515"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45515\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/39146"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45515"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45515"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45515"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}