{"id":44867,"date":"2024-01-17T00:33:23","date_gmt":"2024-01-16T23:33:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=44867"},"modified":"2024-01-16T18:02:19","modified_gmt":"2024-01-16T17:02:19","slug":"predpoved-2024-zlato-zari-ve-vznikajici-bouri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/01\/17\/predpoved-2024-zlato-zari-ve-vznikajici-bouri\/","title":{"rendered":"P\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f 2024: Zlato z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed ve vznikaj\u00edc\u00ed bou\u0159i"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Rok 2024 bude pro glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku z\u00e1sadn\u00edm obdob\u00edm a zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee je ji\u017e nyn\u00ed pln\u00fd ekonomick\u00fdch a geopolitick\u00fdch v\u00fdzev, kter\u00e9 vrhaj\u00ed na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed krajinu temn\u00fd st\u00edn.\u00a0N\u00e1znaky bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00edho se hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho poklesu jsou st\u00e1le jasn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a mnoho v\u00fdzev, kter\u00fdm jsme v uplynul\u00e9m roce \u010delili, n\u00e1s jist\u011b budou prov\u00e1zet je\u0161t\u011b mnoho m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ekonomick\u00e9 a m\u011bnov\u00e9 prost\u0159ed\u00ed<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bank\u00e9\u0159i ve v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b vysp\u011bl\u00fdch ekonomik ji\u017e t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 ozn\u00e1mili sv\u00e9 z\u00e1m\u011bry pro rok 2024.\u00a0Po tvrzen\u00ed, \u017ee inflace je pod kontrolou, co\u017e bylo jist\u011b p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9, zjevn\u011b sp\u011bchaj\u00ed s n\u00e1vratem k expanzivn\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 politice.\u00a0D\u016fvodem je, \u017ee trhliny v glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomice jsou st\u00e1le z\u0159eteln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.\u00a0Je v\u0161ak krajn\u011b nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee jejich v\u0161el\u00e9k ultra n\u00edzk\u00fdch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb a kvantitativn\u00edho uvol\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed bude tentokr\u00e1t fungovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159esto\u017ee se jedn\u00e1 o star\u00fd probl\u00e9m t\u00e9to politiky, probl\u00e9my s p\u0159enosov\u00fdm mechanismem budou tentokr\u00e1t pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b je\u0161t\u011b v\u00e1\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.\u00a0\u00da\u010dinnost jak\u00e9koli m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky z\u00e1vis\u00ed na jej\u00ed transmisi, tedy na tom, jak zm\u011bny \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb nebo n\u00e1r\u016fst pen\u011b\u017en\u00ed z\u00e1soby ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed re\u00e1ln\u00e9 v\u00fddaje, \u00faspory a investice.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud se tyto zm\u011bny neprojev\u00ed ve zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00fdch p\u016fj\u010dk\u00e1ch, v\u00fddaj\u00edch a investic\u00edch podnik\u016f a spot\u0159ebitel\u016f, nebo pokud tyto v\u00fddaje a investice jednodu\u0161e vedou k nespr\u00e1vn\u00e9 alokaci zdroj\u016f, jak tomu obvykle b\u00fdv\u00e1, je dopad na re\u00e1lnou ekonomiku ve skute\u010dnosti kontraproduktivn\u00ed a \u0161kodliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. ne\u017e je u\u017eite\u010dn\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

A nem\u011bli bychom zapom\u00ednat, \u017ee z levn\u00e9ho \u00fav\u011bru a snadno vyd\u011blan\u00fdch pen\u011bz t\u011b\u017e\u00ed hlavn\u011b ti, kte\u0159\u00ed k nim skute\u010dn\u011b maj\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup a jsou nejbl\u00ed\u017ee zdroji.\u00a0Op\u011bt z toho budou m\u00edt prosp\u011bch pouze banky a kamar\u00e1d\u0161t\u00ed kapitalist\u00e9, nikoli pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd pracuj\u00edc\u00ed ob\u010dan a da\u0148ov\u00fd poplatn\u00edk.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vysoce p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e1 inflace cen aktiv zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed bohatstv\u00ed dr\u017eitel\u016f aktiv, co\u017e n\u00e1sledn\u011b vytvo\u0159\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1t\u011b\u017e pro obecnou populaci, kter\u00e1 m\u016f\u017ee o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee ceny nemovitost\u00ed raketov\u011b porostou a jejich spo\u0159ic\u00ed \u00fa\u010dty se vr\u00e1t\u00ed k t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nulov\u00fdm \u00farok\u016fm. .\u00a0I kdy\u017e jsme tyto negativn\u00ed dopady vid\u011bli ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve, nyn\u00ed mohou p\u0159edstavovat je\u0161t\u011b z\u00e1va\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9my, zvy\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjmovou nerovnost a pocity nespravedlnosti u ji\u017e tak ho\u0159ce rozd\u011blen\u00e9 ve\u0159ejnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je samoz\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee tento n\u00e1vrat k expanzivn\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 politice a politice nulov\u00fdch\/z\u00e1porn\u00fdch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb zajist\u00ed, \u017ee ji\u017e tak katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b zadlu\u017een\u00ed obecn\u011b dos\u00e1hnou je\u0161t\u011b hor\u0161\u00edho stavu.\u00a0Podpo\u0159\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed vlnu nadm\u011brn\u00e9ho a neudr\u017eiteln\u00e9ho zadlu\u017een\u00ed jednotlivc\u016f, spole\u010dnost\u00ed a samoz\u0159ejm\u011b vl\u00e1d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Geopolitika jako hlavn\u00ed disruptor<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Jak jsme zm\u00ednili v p\u0159edchoz\u00edch anal\u00fdz\u00e1ch, nen\u00ed v t\u00e9to oblasti \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd d\u016fvod k optimismu.\u00a0Dv\u011b prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b a na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b nevykazuj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 zn\u00e1mky mo\u017en\u00e9 deeskalace a hr\u016fzy, kter\u00fdch jsme ji\u017e byli sv\u011bdky, budou pokra\u010dovat.\u00a0Tot\u00e9\u017e plat\u00ed pro rostouc\u00ed rozpor mezi Z\u00e1padem a \u010d\u00ednsko-ruskou sf\u00e9rou vlivu, se v\u0161emi jeho \u0161kodliv\u00fdmi dopady na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed obchod a spolupr\u00e1ci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rok 2024 v\u0161ak tak\u00e9 zavede do rovnice novou prom\u011bnnou.\u00a0Zpr\u00e1va spole\u010dnosti Ernst & Young upozor\u0148uje: „2024 bude rokem voleb \u2013 \u0159\u00edk\u00e1me tomu glob\u00e1ln\u00ed volebn\u00ed supercyklus. Voli\u010di p\u016fjdou k volb\u00e1m na trz\u00edch, kde \u017eije asi 54 % sv\u011btov\u00e9 populace a t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 60 % celosv\u011btov\u00e9 populace. HDP.<\/span><\/p>\n

To vytvo\u0159\u00ed regula\u010dn\u00ed a politickou nejistotu v kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9m a st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00e9m horizontu. N\u011bkter\u00e9 volby \u2013 zejm\u00e9na v USA a EU \u2013 lze m\u00edt v pam\u011bti jako nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed volby za posledn\u00ed desetilet\u00ed, v dob\u011b soupe\u0159\u00edc\u00edch viz\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch vztah\u016f a hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch politik, kter\u00e9 z\u00e1sadn\u011b ovlivn\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed podnikatelsk\u00e9 prost\u0159ed\u00ed.\u201c\u00a0D\u011bje se tak v dob\u011b hlubok\u00e9ho spole\u010densko-politick\u00e9ho rozd\u011blen\u00ed a extr\u00e9mn\u00edch t\u0159enic.\u00a0Zejm\u00e9na v USA jak\u00fdkoli volebn\u00ed v\u00fdsledek pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b prom\u011bn\u00ed n\u00e1rod v sud s prachem.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed jedn\u00e9 ze stran jist\u011b pobou\u0159\u00ed p\u0159\u00edznivce druh\u00e9 strany a zp\u016fsob, jak\u00fdm je tento sentiment vyj\u00e1d\u0159en, by mohl v\u00e9st k v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 nestabilit\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k ekonomick\u00fdm a geopolitick\u00fdm protiv\u011btr\u016fm, kter\u00fdm budeme pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b \u010delit v roce 2024, se zlato ukazuje jako pevn\u00e9 \u00fato\u010di\u0161t\u011b pro investory, kte\u0159\u00ed se pohybuj\u00ed v t\u011bchto nejist\u00fdch vod\u00e1ch.\u00a0Jedine\u010dn\u00e1 kombinace historick\u00e9 odolnosti, skute\u010dn\u00e9 hodnoty a jeho role jako zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed \u2013 proti ekonomick\u00fdm pokles\u016fm i geopolitick\u00fdm nepokoj\u016fm \u2013 z n\u011bj \u010din\u00ed jedine\u010dn\u011b p\u016fsobiv\u00e9 aktivum v obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9m investi\u010dn\u00edm prost\u0159ed\u00ed.\u00a0Obez\u0159etn\u00ed investo\u0159i, kte\u0159\u00ed cht\u011bj\u00ed zajistit sv\u00e1 portfolia proti nar\u016fstaj\u00edc\u00ed bou\u0159i, op\u011bt naleznou \u00fat\u011bchu v trval\u00e9m bezpe\u010dn\u00e9m postaven\u00ed zlata.<\/span><\/p>\n

To tak\u00e9 znamen\u00e1, \u017ee mo\u017en\u00e1 nastal \u010das radik\u00e1ln\u011b revidovat star\u00e9 \u201epravidlo 60-40\u201c (slo\u017een\u00ed portfolia 60 % akci\u00ed a 40 % dluhopis\u016f) a p\u0159ev\u00e9st jej na nov\u00fd typ principu 60-40: 60 % akcie a 40 % drah\u00e9 kovy.\u00a0Investo\u0159i tak mohou t\u011b\u017eit nejen ze stability a infla\u010dn\u00ed ochrany drah\u00fdch kov\u016f, ale pokud tyto kovy fyzicky dr\u017e\u00ed, maj\u00ed tak\u00e9 mo\u017enost masivn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eit riziko, kter\u00e9 p\u0159edstavuje bankovn\u00ed syst\u00e9m.<\/span><\/p>\n

Claudio Grass<\/em><\/strong>
\nwww.claudiograss.ch<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rok 2024 bude pro glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku z\u00e1sadn\u00edm obdob\u00edm a zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee je ji\u017e nyn\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":21590,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,59,371,276,693],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44867"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44867"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44867\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21590"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44867"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44867"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44867"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}