{"id":44828,"date":"2024-01-16T00:49:40","date_gmt":"2024-01-15T23:49:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=44828"},"modified":"2024-01-16T07:08:02","modified_gmt":"2024-01-16T06:08:02","slug":"spojene-staty-v-recesi-takze-roste-touha-po-proxy-valce","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/01\/16\/spojene-staty-v-recesi-takze-roste-touha-po-proxy-valce\/","title":{"rendered":"Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty v recesi, tak\u017ee roste touha po proxy v\u00e1lce"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty kr\u00e1\u010d\u00ed na hran\u011b b\u0159itvy.\u00a0Pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed novou v\u00e1lku k vy\u0159e\u0161en\u00ed sv\u00e9 vnit\u0159n\u00ed krize.\u00a0Pod\u00edvejme se na \u010d\u00edsla.\u00a0Porovn\u00e1n\u00edm \u00fadaj\u016f o HDP a dluhu USA za t\u0159et\u00ed \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed roku 2023 zjist\u00edme, \u017ee americk\u00e1 ekonomika generuje r\u016fst m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 1 dolar na ka\u017ed\u00fd dolar nov\u00e9ho dluhu.\u00a0Deficit USA v prosinci lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku vzrostl o 129,4 miliard, tedy o 40 miliard v\u00edce, ne\u017e pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 odhady, kter\u00e9 o\u010dek\u00e1valy 87,5 miliard a p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v\u00edce ne\u017e 50% n\u00e1r\u016fst ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s 85 miliardov\u00fdm rozpo\u010dtov\u00fdm deficitem z prosince 2022. na \u00farovni roku 2020, kdy byl feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rozpo\u010det podm\u00edn\u011bn pandemickou nouzovou situac\u00ed.\u00a0To v\u0161e se v\u0161ak d\u011bje, kdy\u017e Wall Street slav\u00ed neb\u00fdval\u00fd r\u016fst.<\/strong><\/p>\n

D\u016fvod t\u00e9to euforie na akciov\u00e9m trhu je rychle vysv\u011btlen.\u00a0Aby Fed vy\u0159e\u0161il m\u00edstn\u00ed bankovn\u00ed krizi, kter\u00e1 srazila americkou m\u011bnovou politiku na kolena, zavedl syst\u00e9m dotovan\u00fdch p\u016fj\u010dek, The Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP).<\/p>\n

Jak vysv\u011btluje ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed sd\u011blen\u00ed Feder\u00e1ln\u00edho rezervn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu: \u201eBTFP byl nov\u00fd program zaveden\u00fd 12. b\u0159ezna 2023, aby se vypo\u0159\u00e1dal s panikou mezi vkladateli, kter\u00e1 je p\u0159ivedla k tomu, \u017ee vyt\u00e1hli hotovost z mnoha bank, v n\u011bkter\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpady v podstat\u011b za n\u011bkolik dn\u00ed, co\u017e vedlo ke kolapsu t\u0159\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00edch bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank a First Republic, kde v\u0161echny vkladatele uzav\u0159ela FDIC, ale investo\u0159i byli vymaz\u00e1ni.\u00a0\u010ctvrt\u00e1 banka, Silvergate Capital, kter\u00e1 za\u017eila prvn\u00ed run na banku v tomto cyklu, byla uvoln\u011bna pod tlakem, ale bez financov\u00e1n\u00ed FDIC\u201c.<\/em><\/p>\n

BTFP bude pozastaven 11. b\u0159ezna. S jak\u00fdmi d\u016fsledky?\u00a0Americk\u00e9 region\u00e1ln\u00ed banky p\u0159e\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed jen d\u00edky BTFP, podp\u016frn\u00e9mu fondu Fedu, kter\u00fd se nyn\u00ed pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 pro \u010d\u00e1stky p\u0159esahuj\u00edc\u00ed 148 miliard t\u00fddn\u011b.\u00a0Nen\u00ed snadn\u00e9 orientovat se v \u0161\u00edlen\u00fdch pravidlech glob\u00e1ln\u00edch financ\u00ed.\u00a0Jedna v\u011bc je v\u0161ak zcela jasn\u00e1.\u00a0Bez t\u00e9to finan\u010dn\u00ed podpory by se kr\u00e1l Wall Street mohl jevit nah\u00fd a v\u0161e nasv\u011bd\u010duje dal\u0161\u00ed krizi s epicentrem, op\u011bt v sektoru nemovitost\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Proto\u017ee ve skute\u010dnosti, d\u00e1me-li stranou akciov\u00e9 indexy, skute\u010dn\u00e1 americk\u00e1 ekonomika m\u00edsto toho lap\u00e1 po dechu.\u00a0<\/strong>11. ledna byla zve\u0159ejn\u011bna ro\u010dn\u00ed trendov\u00e1 data americk\u00e9 inflace za m\u011bs\u00edc prosinec 2023, kter\u00e1 byla zji\u0161t\u011bna na 3,4 %, tedy o 0,2 bodu vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e odhad zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00fd agenturou Bloomberg, kter\u00e1 shroma\u017e\u010fuje odhady provozovatel\u016f trhu Wall Street.\u00a0N\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed den, 12. ledna, zah\u00e1jily Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 a Britov\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 operace letectva v oblasti Rud\u00e9ho mo\u0159e soused\u00edc\u00ed s Jemenem, u d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9ho vstupu a p\u0159echodu p\u0159es \u00fa\u017einu Rud\u00e9ho mo\u0159e sm\u011brem k Suezsk\u00e9mu pr\u016fplavu.\u00a0Situace nazna\u010duje nejist\u00e9 a zhor\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed se vyhl\u00eddky obchodu jak v Evrop\u011b, tak v USA.<\/p>\n

N\u00e1soben\u00ed krizov\u00fdch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f nav\u00edc zvy\u0161uje pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee cena ropy op\u011bt poroste, a to v hodnot\u00e1ch 110-120 dolar\u016f.\u00a0Ud\u00e1lost tohoto typu by u\u010dinila fenom\u00e9n inflace nekontrolovateln\u00fdm s hodnotami, kter\u00e9 by b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika let op\u011bt p\u0159es\u00e1hly 7% pr\u016fm\u011brnou m\u00edru inflace.\u00a0Situace, kterou by Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rezervn\u00ed syst\u00e9m nemohl kontrolovat, co\u017e zp\u016fsob\u00ed, \u017ee se ve\u0159ejn\u00fd dluh vymkne kontrole.<\/p>\n

Pr\u00e1v\u011b z tohoto d\u016fvodu se ekonomov\u00e9 velk\u00fdch bank, jako je Citigroup, Deutsche Bank a JPMorgan Chase, domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee americk\u00e1 ekonomika pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch 18 m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch vstoup\u00ed do recese.\u00a0I kdy\u017e to technicky nenazna\u010duje recesi, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 za n\u00e1sledek negativn\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd r\u016fst, p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 Fedu o\u010dek\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee ekonomick\u00e1 produkce USA v roce 2024 poroste pouze o 1,4 %, co\u017e by byl nejslab\u0161\u00ed r\u016fst od roku 2009, s v\u00fdjimkou trendu zvratu z roku 2020 zp\u016fsoben\u00e9ho pandemi\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\u201eM\u00edrn\u00e1 recese nen\u00ed m\u00edrnou ud\u00e1lost\u00ed a vytvo\u0159ila by v\u00fdrazn\u011b nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdsledek ne\u017e m\u011bkk\u00e9 p\u0159ist\u00e1n\u00ed s pomal\u00fdm r\u016fstem,\u201c vysv\u011btlil Bruce Kasman, hlavn\u00ed ekonom JPMorgan, ve sv\u00e9 progn\u00f3ze na rok 2024.<\/em><\/p>\n

Je t\u0159eba si polo\u017eit ot\u00e1zku: m\u016f\u017ee Bidenova administrativa \u010delit desetim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed volebn\u00ed kampani s ekonomickou kriz\u00ed na sv\u00e9m dvorku?\u00a0<\/strong>Odpov\u011b\u010f je samoz\u0159ejm\u011b ne.\u00a0Z tohoto d\u016fvodu je rozumn\u00e9 o\u010dek\u00e1vat o\u017eiven\u00ed z\u00e1stupn\u00fdch v\u00e1lek.\u00a0A ve skute\u010dnosti americk\u00e1 administrativa nejprve ofici\u00e1ln\u011b uzav\u0159ela ukrajinsk\u00fd p\u0159\u00edpad a ozn\u00e1mila konec vojensk\u00e9 pomoci, \u010d\u00edm\u017e EU postavila do politick\u00e9ho ofsajdu.\u00a0Nyn\u00ed se p\u0159esunula do akce sm\u011brem k velk\u00e9mu c\u00edli.\u00a0N\u011bkolik hodin po prvn\u00ed ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed zm\u00ednce Joe Bidena o \u00cdr\u00e1nu za\u00fato\u010dily USA a Spojen\u00e9 kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed na pozice povstalc\u016f Houthi v Jemenu jako reakci na \u00fatoky v Rud\u00e9m mo\u0159i.\u00a0Odpov\u011b\u010f byla okam\u017eit\u00e1.\u00a0Odveta bude krut\u00e1.\u00a0Te\u010f jsme ve v\u00e1lce.\u00a0V\u00e1lka, kter\u00e1 bude vedena ve jm\u00e9nu finan\u010dn\u00edho \u0161\u00edlenstv\u00ed.\u00a0Gaza je nyn\u00ed daleko, p\u0159em\u011bn\u011bna v politick\u00fd argument a z\u00fa\u010dtov\u00e1n\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edm tribun\u00e1lem.\u00a0V\u0161e je p\u0159ipraveno na \u201eb\u0159eznov\u00e9 p\u0159ekvapen\u00ed\u201c.<\/p>\n

Autor: Piero Messina<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

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Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty kr\u00e1\u010d\u00ed na hran\u011b b\u0159itvy.\u00a0Pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed novou v\u00e1lku k vy\u0159e\u0161en\u00ed sv\u00e9 vnit\u0159n\u00ed krize.\u00a0Pod\u00edvejme se na…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":18079,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[59,29,371,37,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44828"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44828"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44828\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18079"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44828"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44828"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44828"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}