{"id":43501,"date":"2023-12-29T06:02:37","date_gmt":"2023-12-29T05:02:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=43501"},"modified":"2023-12-29T06:02:37","modified_gmt":"2023-12-29T05:02:37","slug":"andrew-korybko-indicky-dovoz-ruske-ropy-pomohl-zabranit-globalni-polykrizi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/12\/29\/andrew-korybko-indicky-dovoz-ruske-ropy-pomohl-zabranit-globalni-polykrizi\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Indick\u00fd dovoz rusk\u00e9 ropy pomohl zabr\u00e1nit glob\u00e1ln\u00ed polykrizi"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Mnoho st\u00e1t\u016f glob\u00e1ln\u00edho Jihu se ji\u017e p\u0159ed t\u00edm, ne\u017e protirusk\u00e9 sankce Z\u00e1padu zhor\u0161ily jejich potravinovou nejistotu, sna\u017eilo vypo\u0159\u00e1dat s dluhov\u00fdmi probl\u00e9my souvisej\u00edc\u00edmi s COVID, tak\u017ee krize cen energi\u00ed je nav\u00edc mohla dohnat p\u0159es okraj do nekontrolovateln\u00e9 polykrize, kter\u00e1 by tak\u00e9 destabilizovala\u00a0Z\u00e1pad.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1stupce indick\u00e9ho ministerstva pro ropu a zemn\u00ed plyn \u0159ekl st\u00e1l\u00e9mu parlamentn\u00edmu v\u00fdboru souvisej\u00edc\u00edmu s ministerstvem, \u017ee rusk\u00fd dovoz ropy do jejich zem\u011b pomohl stabilizovat glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trh s energi\u00ed a zabr\u00e1nit vypuknut\u00ed zmatku podle ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy The\u00a0Indian Express\u00a0<\/a>.\u00a0N\u00e1sleduj\u00ed \u00faryvky, kter\u00e9 citovali z t\u00e9to ud\u00e1losti, a kter\u00e9 budou n\u00e1sledn\u011b analyzov\u00e1ny, aby \u010dten\u00e1\u0159 mohl pln\u011b ocenit nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek Indie sv\u011btu:<\/p>\n

\u201eKdyby (indick\u00e9 rafinerie) nedov\u00e1\u017eely ruskou ropu do Indie, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed 1,95 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b, tento nedostatek by zp\u016fsobil zmatek na trhu s ropou a ceny by vyst\u0159elily o 30 – 40 dolar\u016f.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Trh s ropou je takov\u00fd, \u017ee na trhu 100 milion\u016f barel\u016f denn\u011b, pokud OPEC (Organizace zem\u00ed vyv\u00e1\u017eej\u00edc\u00edch ropu) \u0159ekne, \u017ee ho sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed o jeden nebo dva miliony barel\u016f denn\u011b, ceny vzrostou o 10 a\u017e 20 procent a dos\u00e1hnout a\u017e 125-130 $.<\/em><\/p>\n

Pokud Indie neabsorbuje \u2013 nazval bych to absorpc\u00ed \u2013 1,95 milionu barel\u016f denn\u011b, tyto ceny by dos\u00e1hly 120\u2013130 USD.\u00a0Vytvo\u0159ilo by to zmatek.\u00a0Diplomaticky jsme suver\u00e9nn\u00ed zem\u011b a dalo by se \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee d\u011bl\u00e1me to, co je dobr\u00e9 pro zemi i pro sv\u011bt.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Tento p\u0159ehled je v souladu s t\u00edm, co bylo d\u0159\u00edve sd\u00edleno v t\u011bchto p\u011bti anal\u00fdz\u00e1ch od \u010dervna 2022 do b\u0159ezna 2023:<\/p>\n

* 14. \u010dervna 2022: \u201e\u00a0Rusko-indick\u00e1 energetick\u00e1 diplomacie pom\u00e1h\u00e1 Dill\u00ed vyv\u00e1\u017eit Washington\u00a0<\/a>\u201c<\/p>\n

* 30. listopadu 2022: \u201e\u00a0Rusk\u00e1 energetick\u00e1 geopolitika s \u010c\u00ednou a Indi\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>\u201c<\/p>\n

* 16. ledna 2023: \u201e\u00a0USA zdiskreditovaly sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed sankce n\u00e1kupem rafinovan\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch ropn\u00fdch produkt\u016f p\u0159es Indii\u00a0<\/a>\u201c<\/p>\n

* 8. \u00fanora 2023: \u201e\u00a0Protirusk\u00e9 sankce Z\u00e1padu u\u010dinily Indii nepostradatelnou pro glob\u00e1ln\u00ed trh s energi\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>\u201c<\/p>\n

* 1. b\u0159ezna 2023: \u201e\u00a0Rusko udr\u017e\u00ed tempo v\u00fdvozu ropy do Indie navzdory zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 popt\u00e1vce\u00a0<\/a>\u201c<\/p>\n

Kdyby Indie neodolala z\u00e1padn\u00edmu tlaku, trp\u011blo by cel\u00e9 mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed spole\u010denstv\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Abychom to vysv\u011btlili, mnoho st\u00e1t\u016f glob\u00e1ln\u00edho Jihu se ji\u017e p\u0159ed t\u00edm, ne\u017e protirusk\u00e9 sankce Z\u00e1padu zhor\u0161ily jejich potravinovou nejistotu, sna\u017eilo vypo\u0159\u00e1dat s dluhov\u00fdmi probl\u00e9my souvisej\u00edc\u00edmi s COVID, tak\u017ee krize cen energi\u00ed je nav\u00edc mohla dostat p\u0159es okraj do nekontrolovateln\u00e9ho stavu. polykrize.\u00a0Nejen, \u017ee to mohlo v\u00e9st ke spir\u00e1lovit\u00fdm nepokoj\u016fm, kter\u00e9 se mohly roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it po cel\u00e9m tomto p\u00e1smu sv\u011bta, ale bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed a humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed d\u016fsledky by tak\u00e9 destabilizovaly Z\u00e1pad.<\/p>\n

Ty zem\u011b v tomto bloku\u00a0nov\u00e9 studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky\u00a0<\/a>, kter\u00e9 jsou z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na zdroj\u00edch a trz\u00edch, se mohly c\u00edtit nuceny zah\u00e1jit jednostrann\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 intervence, zat\u00edmco rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 uprchlick\u00e9 toky mohly narazit do jejich spole\u010dnost\u00ed se v\u0161\u00edm, co znamen\u00e1 prohlouben\u00ed ji\u017e existuj\u00edc\u00edho nap\u011bt\u00ed.\u00a0Tomuto nejhor\u0161\u00edmu sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i se poda\u0159ilo odvr\u00e1tit principi\u00e1ln\u00ed neutralitou Indie v\u016f\u010di\u00a0ukrajinsk\u00e9mu\u00a0<\/a>konfliktu\u00a0<\/a>, kdy tato\u00a0celosv\u011btov\u011b v\u00fdznamn\u00e1 velmoc\u00a0<\/a>odolala z\u00e1padn\u00edmu tlaku na bojkot rusk\u00e9 energetiky.<\/p>\n

Pokud by Dill\u00ed p\u0159ed jejich po\u017eadavky kapitulovalo, n\u00e1hl\u00e9 odstran\u011bn\u00ed tolika energie z trhu by jej uvrhlo do chaosu.\u00a0Zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdrobci nemohli nahradit ztracen\u00fd pod\u00edl Ruska, co\u017e vedlo ke konkurenci mezi nejbohat\u0161\u00edmi zem\u011bmi (zejm\u00e9na\u00a0\u010c\u00ednou\u00a0<\/a>a EU) o n\u00e1kup jejich zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edch zdroj\u016f.\u00a0Celou dobu by zadlu\u017een\u00fd a nov\u011b potravinov\u011b nejist\u00fd Glob\u00e1ln\u00ed Jih nebyl schopen udr\u017eet sv\u00e9 minim\u00e1ln\u00ed energetick\u00e9 pot\u0159eby, \u010d\u00edm\u017e by se dala do pohybu polykrize.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Jak \u0159ekl nejmenovan\u00fd indick\u00fd p\u0159edstavitel parlamentu, \u201ed\u011bl\u00e1me to, co je dobr\u00e9 pro zemi i pro sv\u011bt\u201c, co\u017e zd\u016fraznilo rostouc\u00ed\u00a0sbli\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>mezi n\u00e1rodn\u00edmi z\u00e1jmy Indie a z\u00e1jmy mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho spole\u010denstv\u00ed.\u00a0Tato jihoasijsk\u00e1 velmoc praktikuje to, co lze popsat jako hyperrealistickou velkou strategii, v n\u00ed\u017e Indie nejen up\u0159ednost\u0148uje sv\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy tak, jak je tv\u016frci politik ch\u00e1pou, ale up\u0159\u00edmn\u011b uzn\u00e1v\u00e1 tento p\u0159\u00edstup a tak\u00e9 tyt\u00e9\u017e z\u00e1jmy podrobn\u011b popisuje.<\/p>\n

Indie t\u00edm odstra\u0148uje ve\u0161ker\u00e9 nejasnosti ohledn\u011b sv\u00fdch z\u00e1jm\u016f, co\u017e z n\u00ed d\u011bl\u00e1 toho nejp\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u011bj\u0161\u00edho partnera, jak\u00e9ho m\u016f\u017ee kdokoli m\u00edt.\u00a0Tato politika je zalo\u017eena na d\u016fv\u011b\u0159e, kterou si Indie vyp\u011bstovala u v\u0161ech, proto\u017ee nemaj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd d\u016fvod zpochyb\u0148ovat up\u0159\u00edmnost jej\u00edch p\u0159edstavitel\u016f, kdykoli mluv\u00ed o sv\u00fdch n\u00e1rodn\u00edch z\u00e1jmech.\u00a0N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed mohou m\u00edt odli\u0161n\u00e9 n\u00e1zory a dokonce se jim nel\u00edb\u00ed indick\u00e1 politika, ale nikdo nem\u016f\u017ee v\u011brohodn\u011b tvrdit, \u017ee tito p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 l\u017eou o tom, co cht\u011bj\u00ed a pro\u010d.<\/p>\n

Rusk\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed\u00a0Lavrov ocenil tento p\u0159\u00edstup a\u00a0mnohostrannost\u00a0<\/a>, ke kter\u00e9 p\u0159irozen\u011b vedlo, b\u011bhem st\u0159ede\u010dn\u00ed tiskov\u00e9 konference\u00a0se sv\u00fdm indick\u00fdm prot\u011bj\u0161kem,\u00a0<\/a>kdy\u017e\u00a0\u0159ekl , \u017ee\u00a0<\/a>\u201e\u00a0<\/a>V\u011b\u0159\u00edm, \u017ee tato politika nen\u00ed d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 jen pro Rusko a v\u0161echny ostatn\u00ed zem\u011b po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b, ale je to jedin\u00e1 politika, kterou stoj\u00ed za to prov\u00e1d\u011bt, kter\u00e1 zajist\u00ed respekt a pov\u011bst a bude prosp\u011b\u0161n\u00e1 ve spolupr\u00e1ci Indie s jin\u00fdmi zem\u011bmi, kter\u00e9 projevuj\u00ed podobn\u00fd respekt v\u0161em \u010dlen\u016fm mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho spole\u010denstv\u00ed.\u201c<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1pad nikdy nedocen\u00ed, co Indie pro sv\u011bt ud\u011blala, ale glob\u00e1ln\u00ed Jih si za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 uv\u011bdomovat, \u017ee polykrize, kter\u00e9 se mnoz\u00ed z jejich p\u0159edstavitel\u016f ob\u00e1vali, \u017ee se rozvine kr\u00e1tce po vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed protirusk\u00fdch sankc\u00ed, byla z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti odvr\u00e1cena drasticky omezen\u00fdm dovozem t\u011bchto ropn\u00fdch l\u00e1tek do Indie. To stabilizovalo trh, co\u017e jim usnadnilo zvl\u00e1dat dluhy a probl\u00e9my se zabezpe\u010den\u00edm potravin, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se zabr\u00e1nilo sklouznut\u00ed t\u00e9to \u010d\u00e1sti sv\u011bta do tot\u00e1ln\u00ed nestability ke \u0161kod\u011b v\u0161ech.<\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mnoho st\u00e1t\u016f glob\u00e1ln\u00edho Jihu se ji\u017e p\u0159ed t\u00edm, ne\u017e protirusk\u00e9 sankce Z\u00e1padu zhor\u0161ily jejich potravinovou…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":36847,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,79,310,22,276],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43501"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=43501"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/43501\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/36847"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=43501"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=43501"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=43501"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}