{"id":42991,"date":"2023-12-21T06:05:38","date_gmt":"2023-12-21T05:05:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=42991"},"modified":"2023-12-21T06:05:38","modified_gmt":"2023-12-21T05:05:38","slug":"umyslna-destrukce-nejprve-covid-nyni-velke-prevzeti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/12\/21\/umyslna-destrukce-nejprve-covid-nyni-velke-prevzeti\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00damysln\u00e1 destrukce: Nejprve COVID, nyn\u00ed Velk\u00e9 p\u0159evzet\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n
\n
\n

Velk\u00e1 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e1 krize byla dob\u0159e proveden\u00fd pl\u00e1n na zabaven\u00ed bohatstv\u00ed, zb\u00edda\u010den\u00ed obyvatelstva a p\u0159etvo\u0159en\u00ed spole\u010dnosti.\u00a0Co p\u0159i\u0161lo potom, bylo je\u0161t\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed…<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 kniha Davida Webba vrh\u00e1 nov\u00e9 sv\u011btlo na to, co se stalo b\u011bhem Velk\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 krize.\u00a0Webb v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee to byla past.<\/span><\/p>\n

Webb je \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fd b\u00fdval\u00fd investi\u010dn\u00ed bank\u00e9\u0159 a mana\u017eer hedgeov\u00fdch fond\u016f se zku\u0161enostmi na nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edch \u00farovn\u00edch finan\u010dn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu.\u00a0P\u0159ed p\u00e1r m\u011bs\u00edci vydal knihu\u00a0<\/span>The Great Taking<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, kterou ned\u00e1vno doplnil o videodokument.\u00a0D\u016fkladn\u011b, stru\u010dn\u011b, srozumiteln\u011b a ZDARMA.\u00a0pro\u010d to d\u011bl\u00e1?\u00a0Proto\u017ee chce, aby v\u0161ichni pochopili, o co jde.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Great Taking vyty\u010duje pl\u00e1n ke zhroucen\u00ed syst\u00e9mu, utla\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed lid\u00ed a zabaven\u00ed ve\u0161ker\u00e9ho va\u0161eho majetku.\u00a0A obsahuje \u00fa\u010dtenky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vy u\u017e nic nevlastn\u00edte<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Webbova kniha mimo jin\u00e9 ukazuje, jak zm\u011bny jednotn\u00e9ho obchodn\u00edho z\u00e1kon\u00edku prom\u011bnily vlastnictv\u00ed majetku na pod\u00edl na cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edrech.\u00a0Pojem \u201en\u00e1rok\u201c p\u0159em\u011bnil osobn\u00ed majetek na pouhou smluvn\u00ed pohled\u00e1vku.\u00a0\u201eP\u0159\u00edjemce\u201c je \u201ep\u0159\u00edjemce\u201c, nikoli v\u0161ak z\u00e1konn\u00fd vlastn\u00edk.<\/span><\/p>\n

V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u00fapadku finan\u010dn\u00ed instituce je z\u00e1konn\u00fdm vlastn\u00edkem \u201esubjekt, kter\u00fd kontroluje cenn\u00fd pap\u00edr prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm z\u00e1stavn\u00edho pr\u00e1va\u201c.\u00a0P\u0159\u00edsn\u011b vzato, majetek z\u00e1kazn\u00edk\u016f pat\u0159\u00ed bank\u00e1m.\u00a0Ale je to hor\u0161\u00ed.\u00a0Nen\u00ed to jen o ztr\u00e1t\u011b hotovosti p\u0159i krachu banky.\u00a0Cel\u00fd finan\u010dn\u00ed syst\u00e9m byl nastaven pro \u0159\u00edzenou demolici.<\/span><\/p>\n

Webb podrobn\u011b popisuje, jak byla past nastra\u017eena a jak Velk\u00e1 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e1 krize vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed precedens.\u00a0V roce 1933 vyhl\u00e1sila FDR \u201ebankovn\u00ed pr\u00e1zdniny\u201c.\u00a0Banky z\u016fstaly na vl\u00e1dn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edkazy zav\u0159en\u00e9.\u00a0Pozd\u011bji sm\u011bly znovu otev\u0159\u00edt pouze banky schv\u00e1len\u00e9 FEDem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tis\u00edce bank byly odsouzeny k z\u00e1hub\u011b.\u00a0Lid\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed sv\u00e9 pen\u00edze vlo\u017eili do t\u011bchto neobl\u00edben\u00fdch instituc\u00ed, p\u0159i\u0161li o v\u0161echny sv\u00e9 pen\u00edze a v\u0161e, co financovali (domy, auta, firmy) a ji\u017e nemohli spl\u00e1cet.\u00a0N\u011bkolik \u201evybran\u00fdch\u201c bank pot\u00e9 konsolidovalo v\u0161echna aktiva v syst\u00e9mu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Centralizace a syst\u00e9mov\u00e9 riziko<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Jak ukazuje Webb, dort se pe\u010de l\u00e9ta.\u00a0Tento t\u00fdden se ale objevilo znamen\u00ed, \u017ee to jde z trouby.\u00a0Minul\u00e9 pond\u011bl\u00ed Bloomberg uznal, \u017ee opat\u0159en\u00ed \u00fadajn\u011b p\u0159ijat\u00e1 k \u201eochran\u011b syst\u00e9mu\u201c ve skute\u010dnosti zvy\u0161uj\u00ed riziko.<\/span><\/p>\n

Po finan\u010dn\u00ed krizi v roce 2008 vedouc\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 G20 na\u0159\u00eddili, \u017ee v\u0161echny standardizovan\u00e9 OTC deriv\u00e1ty mus\u00ed b\u00fdt z\u00fa\u010dtov\u00e1ny prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm centr\u00e1ln\u00edch protistran (CCP), \u00fadajn\u011b s c\u00edlem sn\u00ed\u017eit riziko protistrany a zv\u00fd\u0161it transparentnost trhu.\u00a0Nejzn\u00e1m\u011bj\u0161\u00ed CCP v USA je Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC), kter\u00e1 ka\u017ed\u00fd den zpracov\u00e1v\u00e1 transakce s cenn\u00fdmi pap\u00edry v hodnot\u011b bilion\u016f dolar\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159ed rokem 2012 bylo obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed s OTC deriv\u00e1ty bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed a riziko protistrany bylo \u0159\u00edzeno stranami transakce.\u00a0P\u0159i p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9m obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed s jin\u00fdmi spole\u010dnostmi musel ka\u017ed\u00fd zajistit, aby jednal se spolehliv\u00fdmi partnery.\u00a0Pokud by m\u011bly \u0161patnou pov\u011bst nebo nebyly bonitn\u00ed, mohly by je protistrany klasifikovat jako toxick\u00e9 a vylou\u010dit je z podnik\u00e1n\u00ed.\u00a0To bylo pro chytr\u00e9 v\u016fdce G20 p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 riskantn\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Se zaveden\u00edm centr\u00e1ln\u00edch clearingov\u00fdch mand\u00e1t\u016f se riziko protistrany prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm \u00fast\u0159edn\u00edch protistran p\u0159esunulo ze spole\u010dnost\u00ed prov\u00e1d\u011bj\u00edc\u00edch obchody na samotn\u00fd syst\u00e9m.\u00a0Bonita a pov\u011bst byly nahrazeny kolater\u00e1lem a komplexn\u00edmi modely.<\/span><\/p>\n

Makl\u00e9\u0159i, banky, spr\u00e1vci aktiv, hedgeov\u00e9 fondy, spole\u010dnosti, poji\u0161\u0165ovny a dal\u0161\u00ed takzvan\u00e9 \u201eclearingov\u00e9 strany\u201c se \u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed trhu t\u00edm, \u017ee nejprve slo\u017e\u00ed kolater\u00e1l ve form\u011b po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed mar\u017ee (IM) u \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed protistrany.\u00a0Riziko protistrany je \u0159\u00edzeno prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm t\u00e9to po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00ed mar\u017ee a samostatn\u00e9ho, \u200b\u200bmnohem men\u0161\u00edho fondu pro p\u0159\u00edpad selh\u00e1n\u00ed (DF) dr\u017een\u00e9ho u CCP.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rozd\u011blte ztr\u00e1ty \u201evz\u00e1jemn\u011b\u201c<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159esouv\u00e1n\u00ed rizika z jednotliv\u00fdch stran na komunitu je receptem na probl\u00e9my.\u00a0Ale v\u011bci se je\u0161t\u011b zhor\u0161\u00ed, jak ukazuje ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va BIS.\u00a0Struktura samotn\u00fdch CCP m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st k \u201emar\u017eov\u00fdm spir\u00e1l\u00e1m\u201c a \u201erizik\u016fm odlivu\u201c b\u011bhem turbulenc\u00ed na trhu.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

B\u011bhem obdob\u00ed letu do bezpe\u010d\u00ed zvy\u0161uj\u00ed CCP po\u017eadavky na mar\u017ee.\u00a0Podle BIS,<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eN\u00e1hl\u00fd a prudk\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst IM nut\u00ed deriv\u00e1tov\u00e9 protistrany ke sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed jejich p\u00e1kov\u00e9ho efektu a m\u016f\u017ee vyvolat v\u00fdprodejov\u00e9 situace, co\u017e vede ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 volatilit\u011b a dal\u0161\u00edmu n\u00e1r\u016fstu IM v takzvan\u00fdch mar\u017eov\u00fdch spir\u00e1l\u00e1ch.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

U\u017e jsme ochutnali, jak by to mohlo vypadat.\u00a0Podobn\u00e9 spir\u00e1ly mar\u017e\u00ed \u201ese objevily na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2020 (Covid-19) a 2022 (invaze na Ukrajinu), co\u017e odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed povahu model\u016f IM citliv\u00fdch na riziko.<\/span><\/p>\n

St\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy jako probl\u00e9mov\u00fd p\u0159\u00edpad<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Druhou oblast\u00ed syst\u00e9mov\u00e9ho rizika je dvoj\u00ed pou\u017eit\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f jako kolater\u00e1lu a jako podkladov\u00fdch aktiv pro deriv\u00e1tov\u00e9 smlouvy.\u00a0Volatilita na trhu st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 popt\u00e1vce po zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed na trz\u00edch s deriv\u00e1ty pr\u00e1v\u011b v dob\u011b, kdy ceny st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f klesaj\u00ed.\u00a0Klesaj\u00edc\u00ed ceny dluhopis\u016f sni\u017euj\u00ed hodnotu st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edch IM.\u00a0Popt\u00e1vka po zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed roste, zat\u00edmco hodnota st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edho a potenci\u00e1ln\u00edho zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed kles\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Op\u011bt BIS:<\/span><\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1lo se, \u017ee b\u011bhem krize irsk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tn\u00edho dluhu v letech 2010\/11 hr\u00e1la roli dynamika rizika \u0161patn\u00fdm sm\u011brem.\u00a0V t\u00e9 dob\u011b investo\u0159i likvidovali sv\u00e9 pozice v irsk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopisech pot\u00e9, co centr\u00e1ln\u00ed protistrana zv\u00fd\u0161ila sr\u00e1\u017eky u t\u011bchto dluhopis\u016f pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00fdch jako kolater\u00e1l.\u00a0To vedlo k ni\u017e\u0161\u00edm cen\u00e1m irsk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f, co\u017e vedlo k dal\u0161\u00edm sr\u00e1\u017ek\u00e1m, dal\u0161\u00edmu uzav\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed pozic a nakonec k sestupn\u00e9 spir\u00e1le cen.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Zaru\u010den\u00e9 selh\u00e1n\u00ed<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

BIS to nep\u0159izn\u00e1, ale Webb \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee samotn\u00e9 \u010cKS jsou z\u00e1m\u011brn\u011b podkapitalizovan\u00e9 a odsouzen\u00e9 k z\u00e1niku.\u00a0Z\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed nov\u00e9 CCP je pl\u00e1nov\u00e1no a p\u0159edfinancov\u00e1no.\u00a0Kdy\u017e k tomu dojde, \u201ezaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed v\u011b\u0159itel\u00e9\u201c p\u0159evezmou kontrolu nad V\u0160EM podkladov\u00fdm kolater\u00e1lem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je\u0161t\u011b jednou BIS:<\/strong><\/p>\n

…aby mohly spole\u010dn\u011b n\u00e9st potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty ze selh\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 jdou nad r\u00e1mec IM, \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed protistrany tak\u00e9 vy\u017eaduj\u00ed, aby jejich \u010dlenov\u00e9 p\u0159isp\u00edvali do fondu pro selh\u00e1n\u00ed (DF).\u00a0V d\u016fsledku toho maj\u00ed \u00fast\u0159edn\u00ed protistrany velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed likvidn\u00edch aktiv.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Tento \u201evelk\u00fd fond likvidn\u00edch aktiv\u201c je cel\u00fdm vesm\u00edrem obchodovan\u00fdch cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b kolapsu trhu jsou akcie a dluhopisy, kter\u00e9 si mysl\u00edte, \u017ee vlastn\u00edte, nas\u00e1v\u00e1ny do fondu pro selh\u00e1n\u00ed (DF) jako dal\u0161\u00ed kolater\u00e1l za klesaj\u00edc\u00ed hodnotu deriv\u00e1tov\u00e9ho komplexu.\u00a0Toto je \u201evelk\u00e9 p\u0159evzet\u00ed\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Buffett\u016fv slavn\u00fd cit\u00e1t je pravdiv\u00fd: „Neuvid\u00edte nikoho, kdo plave nah\u00fd, dokud nep\u0159ijde p\u0159\u00edliv.“\u00a0V\u011bt\u0161ina z n\u00e1s brzy zjist\u00ed, \u017ee jsme ti naz\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud jste The Great Taking je\u0161t\u011b ne\u010detli nebo nevid\u011bli dokument, doporu\u010duji v\u00e1m, abyste se napil a pod\u00edvali se na n\u011bj hned te\u010f:<\/span><\/p>\n

\n