{"id":42982,"date":"2023-12-21T00:31:29","date_gmt":"2023-12-20T23:31:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=42982"},"modified":"2023-12-20T16:08:48","modified_gmt":"2023-12-20T15:08:48","slug":"izrael-planuje-regionalni-potencialne-globalni-valku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/12\/21\/izrael-planuje-regionalni-potencialne-globalni-valku\/","title":{"rendered":"Izrael pl\u00e1nuje region\u00e1ln\u00ed (potenci\u00e1ln\u011b glob\u00e1ln\u00ed) v\u00e1lku"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n
\n
\n

Jest\u0159\u00e1bi prosazuj\u00ed v\u00edce front v izraelsk\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch operac\u00edch<\/span><\/strong>
\nTi, kte\u0159\u00ed podporuj\u00ed Netanjahua, mo\u017en\u00e1 budou muset p\u0159ijmout akce proti Hizball\u00e1hu, \u00cdr\u00e1nu, Z\u00e1padn\u00edmu b\u0159ehu a dal\u0161\u00edm<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 esej izraelsk\u00e9ho spisovatele Gadiho Tauba v \u010dasopise Tablet jasn\u011b ukazuje, \u017ee izraelsk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka v Gaze nebude posledn\u00ed.\u00a0Izrael \u201eopust\u00ed svou obrannou strategii a p\u0159ejde do \u00fatoku\u201c.\u00a0To znamen\u00e1 odstranit Hizball\u00e1h a pot\u00e9 zah\u00e1jit \u201emnohostrann\u00fd boj proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu kv\u016fli jeho snaze o region\u00e1ln\u00ed hegemonii a jeho programu jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Taub, jeho\u017e jest\u0159\u00e1b\u00ed n\u00e1zory v mnoha ohledech odr\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed z\u00e1sadn\u00ed st\u0159ed izraelsk\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed, vid\u00ed v Bidenov\u011b administrativ\u011b pokra\u010dovatele dlouhodob\u00e9 demokratick\u00e9 politiky usm\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu.\u00a0V ostr\u00e9m kontrastu s Henrym Kissingerem, jeho\u017e diplomacii 70. let chv\u00e1l\u00ed, pova\u017euje Taub politiku ministra zahrani\u010d\u00ed Antonyho Blinkena za katastrofu.\u00a0\u201eZmocn\u011bn\u00edm \u00cdr\u00e1nc\u016f Blinkenova politika tak\u00e9 nevyhnuteln\u011b podpo\u0159\u00ed pronik\u00e1n\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch patron\u016f, Rus\u016f a \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u016f, do regionu na americk\u00e9 n\u00e1klady.\u00a0Kissingerova politika byla navr\u017eena tak, aby vyhnala americk\u00e9 velmocensk\u00e9 rivaly.\u00a0Dnes je americk\u00e1 politika zve, aby vstoupili.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vysn\u011bn\u00fd pal\u00e1c Izraelc\u016f<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Nejpodivuhodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u011bc\u00ed na Taubov\u011b eseji je surrealistick\u00fd portr\u00e9t region\u00e1ln\u00edch sil spojen\u00fdch pro a proti Izraeli.\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1n, p\u00ed\u0161e Taub, \u201eje ve v\u00e1lce se star\u00fdm americk\u00fdm region\u00e1ln\u00edm alian\u010dn\u00edm syst\u00e9mem \u2013 kter\u00fd zahrnuje Izrael, Egypt, Jord\u00e1nsko, Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bii a st\u00e1ty Persk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu.\u00a0„Ale ministr Blinken a prezident Biden nov\u00e9 radik\u00e1ly sp\u00ed\u0161e uklid\u0148uj\u00ed, ne\u017e aby je zadr\u017eovali.“<\/span><\/p>\n

Na tomto pomysln\u00e9m v\u00fdjevu sd\u00edlen\u00e9m izraelsk\u00fdm premi\u00e9rem Benjaminem Netanjahuem je Izrael v nevysloven\u00e9m, ale hlubok\u00e9m spojenectv\u00ed se sunnitsk\u00fdmi arabsk\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty, kter\u00e9 cht\u011bj\u00ed rozdrtit Ham\u00e1s a ne\u00fanavn\u011b \u00fato\u010dit na \u00cdr\u00e1n a jeho z\u00e1stupce.\u00a0\u0158\u00edk\u00e1 se, \u017ee to, co tito lid\u00e9 u moci \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed na ve\u0159ejnosti, je velmi vzd\u00e1len\u00e9 tomu, co \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed v soukrom\u00ed.\u00a0Arab\u0161t\u00ed v\u016fdci samoz\u0159ejm\u011b na ve\u0159ejnosti reptaj\u00ed nad \u0161\u00edlen\u00fdm roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00edm doktr\u00edny Dahiya v Gaze ze strany Izraele.\u00a0Soukrom\u011b tito arab\u0161t\u00ed v\u016fdci \u00fadajn\u011b \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed americk\u00fdm a izraelsk\u00fdm zasv\u011bcen\u00fdm (ale zjevn\u011b nikomu jin\u00e9mu), \u017ee srde\u010dn\u011b schvaluj\u00ed izraelsk\u00e9 operace.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento izraelsk\u00fd pohled na arabsk\u00e9 v\u016fdce je iluzorn\u00ed.\u00a0Ano, arab\u0161t\u00ed v\u016fdci maj\u00ed velk\u00e9 probl\u00e9my s Ham\u00e1sem.\u00a0Ale stejn\u011b jako jejich lid\u00e9 v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee extr\u00e9mn\u00ed n\u00e1sil\u00ed Izraele v Gaze by mohlo otev\u0159\u00edt br\u00e1ny do pekel, jako kdysi v\u00e1lka v Ir\u00e1ku v roce 2003.\u00a0Nev\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee je mo\u017en\u00e9 zatla\u010dit Ham\u00e1s do zapomn\u011bn\u00ed, proto\u017ee se nevyhnuteln\u011b objev\u00ed nov\u00ed rebeluj\u00edc\u00ed v\u016fdci.\u00a0Podle jejich n\u00e1zoru Izrael ne\u0159e\u0161\u00ed nic jin\u00e9ho, \u200b\u200bne\u017e \u017ee zvy\u0161uje nejistotu v regionu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Blinken\u016fv (slab\u00fd) pokus omezit izraelsk\u00e9 v\u00e1l\u010den\u00ed v Gaze m\u00e1 podle Tauba za c\u00edl pozvat Rusko a \u010c\u00ednu do regionu, ale ve skute\u010dnosti je to politika Izraele, kdo to d\u011bl\u00e1.\u00a0Tato politika tla\u010d\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1n a americkou tradi\u010dn\u00ed arabskou koalici do vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 n\u00e1ru\u010de a p\u0159im\u011bje je, aby si uv\u011bdomili, \u017ee maj\u00ed shodn\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy postavit se proti izraelsk\u00fdm pl\u00e1n\u016fm.\u00a0Tyto z\u00e1jmy se zase shoduj\u00ed se z\u00e1jmy Ruska a \u010c\u00edny, kter\u00e9 se v sou\u010dasnosti nach\u00e1zej\u00ed v podobn\u00e9 situaci.\u00a0Taub v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed izraelsk\u00e9 ofenzivy by zni\u010dily nov\u00fd vztah mezi Sa\u00fady a \u010d\u00ednsko-rusk\u00fdm blokem.\u00a0Ne, tyto vztahy by se pos\u00edlily.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento isl\u00e1msk\u00fd konsenzus \u2013 sjednocuj\u00edc\u00ed Araby, \u00cdr\u00e1nce a Turky a podporovan\u00fd Ruskem a \u010c\u00ednou \u2013 by z\u00edskal dal\u0161\u00ed dynamiku, pokud by byly pln\u011b realizov\u00e1ny ambice Izraele na Z\u00e1padn\u00edm b\u0159ehu.\u00a0Dal\u0161\u00ed Nakba v Gaze a na Z\u00e1padn\u00edm b\u0159ehu je pro americk\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00e1tele klatbou.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159esto izraelsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r Benjamin Netanjahu mluv\u00ed o Palestinsk\u00e9 samospr\u00e1v\u011b stejn\u011b ost\u0159e jako o Hamasu nebo Hizball\u00e1hu.\u00a0Odm\u00edtl n\u00e1vrhy USA na p\u0159iveden\u00ed Palestinsk\u00e9 spr\u00e1vy do p\u00e1sma Gazy po v\u00e1lce.\u00a0Netanjahu m\u00e1 ve sv\u00e9 koalici mocn\u00e9 ministry (ministr pro n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost Itamar Ben-Gvir, ministr financ\u00ed Bezalel Smotrich), kte\u0159\u00ed maj\u00ed velk\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny pro Z\u00e1padn\u00ed b\u0159eh Jord\u00e1nu a Chr\u00e1movou horu.\u00a0V tomto ohledu se zd\u00e1, \u017ee na Z\u00e1padn\u00edm b\u0159ehu Jord\u00e1nu a v Jeruzal\u00e9m\u011b existuje \u010dtvrt\u00e1 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed fronta, odli\u0161n\u00e1 od Gazy, Libanonu a \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Washington jako aktiv\u00e1tor a kontrolor<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Taub zakl\u00e1d\u00e1 svou esej na srovn\u00e1n\u00ed bl\u00edzkov\u00fdchodn\u00ed diplomacie Henryho Kissingera v 70. letech a dne\u0161n\u00ed politiky Antonyho Blinkena.\u00a0Kissinger, \u0159ekl Taub, vedl mistrovsk\u00fd kurz v diplomacii.\u00a0Arab\u0161t\u00ed v\u016fdci, \u0159ekl Kissinger, \u201ech\u00e1pou, \u017ee pouze Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty mohou u\u010dinit izraelsk\u00e9 \u00fastupky a \u017ee cena \u2013 m\u00edr s Izraelem a rozchod se sov\u011btskou ob\u011b\u017enou dr\u00e1hou \u2013 by za to st\u00e1la.\u00a0Fungovalo to.“<\/span><\/p>\n

Rychle vp\u0159ed k dne\u0161ku.\u00a0Pokud Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty nemohou \u010di nebudou \u010dinit izraelsk\u00e9 \u00fastupky, jejich vliv na arabsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty bude jist\u011b zna\u010dn\u011b oslaben.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Izrael je p\u0159i prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed sv\u00fdch sou\u010dasn\u00fdch a pl\u00e1novan\u00fdch operac\u00ed zcela z\u00e1visl\u00fd na americk\u00fdch zbran\u00edch.\u00a0\u201eIzraelci si hraj\u00ed s dom\u00e1c\u00edmi pen\u011bzi,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 jeden americk\u00fd p\u0159edstavitel.\u00a0Do 1. prosince bylo do americk\u00fdch n\u00e1kladn\u00edch letadel nalo\u017eeno 15 000 bomb a 57 000 d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00fdch gran\u00e1t\u016f.\u00a0Dal\u0161\u00ed jsou na cest\u011b.\u00a0Bidenova administrativa m\u00e1 na Izrael velk\u00fd vliv.\u00a0Jen to nen\u00ed ochotn\u00e1 pou\u017e\u00edt.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bidenova administrativa spr\u00e1vn\u011b varovala Izrael p\u0159ed velkou \u00fato\u010dnou operac\u00ed v Libanonu.\u00a0Hizball\u00e1h je v situaci \u201epou\u017eij to, nebo to ztra\u0165\u201c, pokud jde o jeho \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9 syst\u00e9my, proto\u017ee m\u00e1 \u00fadajn\u011b 100 000 a\u017e 150 000 raket a raket, co\u017e je mnohem v\u00edce ne\u017e s\u00edly Ham\u00e1su.\u00a0Evakuace asi 80 000 Izraelc\u016f z komunit soused\u00edc\u00edch s Libanonem po 7. \u0159\u00edjnu je pro Izrael nepochybn\u011b nep\u0159ijateln\u00fdm v\u00fdsledkem, ale Izrael se nem\u016f\u017ee pokusit zlikvidovat Hizball\u00e1h, ani\u017e by sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed obyvatelstvo vystavil v\u00e1\u017en\u00fdm rizik\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro Izraelce by bylo mnohem lep\u0161\u00ed znovu obsadit severn\u00ed m\u011bsta pod z\u00e1\u0161titou vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9ho odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 existovalo p\u0159ed 7. \u0159\u00edjnem, ne\u017e zah\u00e1jit velkou v\u00e1lku proti Hizball\u00e1hu.\u00a0Izraelci v\u0161ak zjevn\u011b nesouhlas\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ministr obrany Yoav Gallant sl\u00edbil vojenskou akci s c\u00edlem vyhnat Hizball\u00e1h za \u0159eku Litani, pokud Hizball\u00e1h nespln\u00ed izraelsk\u00e9 ultim\u00e1tum na vy\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed pohrani\u010dn\u00ed oblasti.\u00a0D\u011bsiv\u00e9 riziko takov\u00e9 eskalace spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v tom, \u017ee Izrael prom\u011bn\u00ed Bejr\u00fat a ji\u017en\u00ed Libanon v p\u00e1smo Gazy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud jsou Taubovy n\u00e1zory spolehliv\u00fdm vod\u00edtkem, Izraelci Bidenovi a demokrat\u016fm \u00fapln\u011b rezignovali.\u00a0\u00dadajn\u00e9 \u201eusmi\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c v\u016f\u010di \u00cdr\u00e1nu \u201enen\u00ed nedbalou chybou Demokratick\u00e9 strany\u201c, ale \u201e\u00famyslnou strategi\u00ed zam\u011b\u0159enou na pos\u00edlen\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu na \u00fakor tradi\u010dn\u00edch americk\u00fdch spojenc\u016f\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

V dob\u011b, kdy se arab\u0161t\u00ed Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 a jejich spojenci zlob\u00ed na Bidena a Blinkena, je zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed, \u017ee se k exegezi p\u0159ipojuj\u00ed i \u200b\u200bTaub a Izraelci.\u00a0Jedna skupina nen\u00e1vid\u00ed B&B za to, \u017ee d\u00e1v\u00e1 Izraeli nejzelen\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ze zelen\u00fdch sv\u011btel, druh\u00e1 za jasn\u011b \u010derven\u00e1 sv\u011btla (p\u0159esta\u0148te zab\u00edjet civilisty, nenapadn\u011bte Libanon), kter\u00e1 Taub vn\u00edm\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Postoj vl\u00e1dy nen\u00ed co z\u00e1vid\u011bt.\u00a0Na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b geopolitick\u00e1 katastrofa, kter\u00e1 je d\u016fsledkem bianco \u0161eku Izraeli, na stran\u011b druh\u00e9 vnitropolitick\u00e1 nebezpe\u010d\u00ed gigantick\u00e9ho sporu s Netanjahuem a cel\u00fdm izraelsk\u00fdm n\u00e1rodem.\u00a0Bude v t\u00e9to akutn\u00ed bitv\u011b mezi n\u00e1rodn\u00edmi z\u00e1jmy a osobn\u00edm politick\u00fdm p\u0159e\u017eit\u00edm prezident Biden jako John Adams a postav\u00ed zemi nad stranu?\u00a0Na tuto ot\u00e1zku nem\u00e1m odpov\u011b\u010f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jedna v\u011bc je v\u0161ak k\u0159i\u0161\u0165\u00e1lov\u011b jasn\u00e1.\u00a0Podporovat Izrael znamen\u00e1 podporovat velk\u00fd pl\u00e1n, kter\u00fd vyz\u00fdv\u00e1 k v\u00e1lce na v\u0161ech front\u00e1ch, financovan\u00fd a umo\u017en\u011bn\u00fd Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty.\u00a0Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee Izraelci si nejsou v\u011bdomi skute\u010dnosti, \u017ee p\u0159edchoz\u00ed pou\u017eit\u00ed s\u00edly v Libanonu a Palestin\u011b nevy\u0159e\u0161ilo jejich bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed probl\u00e9m.\u00a0M\u00edsto toho v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee dal\u0161\u00ed destrukce v takov\u00e9m m\u011b\u0159\u00edtku, jako je ta v Dr\u00e1\u017e\u010fanech, tentokr\u00e1t ud\u011bl\u00e1 to, co v minulosti neud\u011blala.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k osam\u011bl\u00e9 existenci Izraele v mo\u0159i muslim\u016f mi tato v\u00edra p\u0159ipad\u00e1 iracion\u00e1ln\u00ed.\u00a0Izrael se nem\u016f\u017ee zbavit sv\u00e9ho bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho probl\u00e9mu ani sv\u00fdch nep\u0159\u00e1tel pomoc\u00ed masivn\u00edho pou\u017eit\u00ed s\u00edly.\u00a0Eskalace ohro\u017euje Izraelce i jejich sousedy.\u00a0Ale Izraelci lp\u00ed na sv\u00e9 v\u00ed\u0159e v n\u00e1sil\u00ed s teologick\u00fdm p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00edm a tuto v\u00edru je t\u0159eba br\u00e1t s maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1\u017enost\u00ed.\u00a0Doposud tato neodolateln\u00e1 s\u00edla nenarazila na nehybn\u00fd p\u0159edm\u011bt.<\/span><\/p>\n

* David C. Hendrickson je emeritn\u00edm profesorem politologie na Colorado College a prezidentem John Quincy Adams Society.\u00a0Je autorem n\u011bkolika knih, v\u010detn\u011b Republic in Peril: American Empire and the Liberal Tradition.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n

ZDROJ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jest\u0159\u00e1bi prosazuj\u00ed v\u00edce front v izraelsk\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch operac\u00edch Ti, kte\u0159\u00ed podporuj\u00ed Netanjahua, mo\u017en\u00e1 budou muset…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":42983,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[107,37,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42982"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42982"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42982\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":42984,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42982\/revisions\/42984"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/42983"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42982"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42982"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42982"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}