{"id":42825,"date":"2023-12-18T08:31:23","date_gmt":"2023-12-18T07:31:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=42825"},"modified":"2023-12-18T08:31:23","modified_gmt":"2023-12-18T07:31:23","slug":"thomas-roper-eu-se-pripravuje-na-hospodarskou-valku-s-cinou","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2023\/12\/18\/thomas-roper-eu-se-pripravuje-na-hospodarskou-valku-s-cinou\/","title":{"rendered":"Thomas R\u00f6per: EU se p\u0159ipravuje na hospod\u00e1\u0159skou v\u00e1lku s \u010c\u00ednou"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

V Bruselu a Berl\u00edn\u011b jsou zast\u00e1nci tvrd\u00e9 linie, kte\u0159\u00ed pl\u00e1nuj\u00ed tot\u00e1ln\u00ed obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lku s \u010c\u00ednou. Ideologie a vazalsk\u00e1 loajalita k USA maj\u00ed p\u0159ednost p\u0159ed rozumem a blahobytem lid\u00ed v Evrop\u011b<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Objektivn\u011b vzato, mezi EU a \u010c\u00ednou t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 neexistuj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 st\u0159ety z\u00e1jm\u016f, jak jsem uk\u00e1zal\u00a0<\/span>zde<\/span><\/a>. EU a \u010c\u00edna maj\u00ed mnoho spole\u010dn\u00fdch z\u00e1jm\u016f, proto\u017ee \u010c\u00edna je nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm obchodn\u00edm partnerem EU a spole\u010dnosti z EU vyd\u011bl\u00e1vaj\u00ed spoustu pen\u011bz prodejem zbo\u017e\u00ed do \u010c\u00edny nebo jeho v\u00fdrobou v \u010c\u00edn\u011b. A \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 zbo\u017e\u00ed se stalo ned\u00edlnou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed EU. Ve skute\u010dnosti by EU a \u010c\u00edna m\u011bly b\u00fdt proti sankc\u00edm, kter\u00e9 po\u0161kozuj\u00ed jejich vlastn\u00ed i vz\u00e1jemn\u00fd obchod a ekonomiku obou stran.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trp\u011bt za z\u00e1jmy USA<\/span><\/h3>\n

Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee doch\u00e1z\u00ed tak\u00e9 ke spor\u016fm mezi obchodn\u00edmi partnery, nap\u0159\u00edklad pokud jde o ot\u00e1zku dotov\u00e1n\u00ed ur\u010dit\u00fdch hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch odv\u011btv\u00ed, co\u017e jednu stranu nef\u00e9rov\u011b zv\u00fdhod\u0148uje p\u0159ed druhou. Ale o t\u011bchto v\u011bcech se d\u00e1 mluvit a p\u0159\u00edklad USA a ekonomick\u00e9 spory, kter\u00e9 mezi Bruselem a Washingtonem o dotac\u00edch \u010di ochrann\u00fdch clech v\u017edy vzniknou, nikdy nebyly d\u016fvodem k politick\u00e9 eskalaci sporu. Tak pro\u010d by to m\u011bl b\u00fdt d\u016fvod pro \u010c\u00ednu?<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u016fvodem je, \u017ee USA vid\u00ed \u010c\u00ednu jako soupe\u0159e, kter\u00fd stoj\u00ed v cest\u011b jejich touze ovl\u00e1dnout sv\u011bt \u2013 v USA hovo\u0159\u00edme o \u201ecelosv\u011btov\u00e9 dominanci\u201c. To je v\u0161ak probl\u00e9m USA, nikoli EU. P\u0159esto se EU ke sv\u00e9 \u0161kod\u011b ob\u011btuje pro z\u00e1jmy USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Skute\u010dnost, \u017ee se EU p\u0159ipojila k proti\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 politice USA, a\u010dkoli to objektivn\u011b vzato nen\u00ed v z\u00e1jmu EU, znovu ukazuje, \u017ee EU je vazalem USA. To nen\u00ed moje tvrzen\u00ed, nen\u00ed to ani \u201erusk\u00e1 propaganda\u201c, formuloval to p\u0159\u00edsn\u011b transatlantick\u00fd think-tank EU Evropsk\u00e1 rada pro zahrani\u010dn\u00ed vztahy v dubnu 2023, jak si <\/span>zde<\/span><\/a> o tom m\u016f\u017eete p\u0159e\u010d\u00edst.<\/span><\/p>\n

Otev\u0159en\u011b proti\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 politika EU se ji\u017e d\u00e1vno stala hlavn\u00edm proudem, a\u010dkoli je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed n\u011bkolika lety byla velmi kontroverzn\u00ed. Stoj\u00ed za to p\u0159ipomenout silnou kritiku z Bruselu a dal\u0161\u00edch evropsk\u00fdch metropol\u00ed, kdy\u017e americk\u00fd prezident Trump navedl USA na konfronta\u010dn\u00ed kurz proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b. Tato kritika v Evrop\u011b t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 okam\u017eit\u011b utichla, kdy\u017e Joe Biden p\u0159evzal tuto politiku od Trumpa a dokonce ji masivn\u011b zp\u0159\u00edsnil. A co v\u00edc: EU a jej\u00ed \u010dlensk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty se okam\u017eit\u011b p\u0159ipojily k t\u00e9to politice, kterou pr\u00e1v\u011b siln\u011b kritizovaly. V Berl\u00edn\u011b a Bruselu je mnoho lobbist\u016f za proti\u010d\u00ednskou politiku, mezi nimi\u017e vynikaj\u00ed zejm\u00e9na \u010dlenov\u00e9 Strany zelen\u00fdch.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tot\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomick\u00e1 v\u00e1lka<\/span><\/h3>\n

V posledn\u00ed dob\u011b m\u00e9dia p\u0159ipravuj\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed ve\u0159ejnost na otev\u0159enou ekonomickou v\u00e1lku proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b, kter\u00e1 bude pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b stejn\u011b tot\u00e1ln\u00ed obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lkou jako ta proti Rusku. 14. prosince pod titulkem \u201e<\/span>\u201cOdd\u011blen\u00ed\u201c d\u016fsledk\u016f \u2013 p\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed ekonomick\u00fdch vztah\u016f s \u010c\u00ednou by se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b dalo zvl\u00e1dnout<\/span><\/a>\u201c informoval Spiegel o velmi dobrodru\u017en\u00e9m postoji a uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee n\u011bmeck\u00e1 ekonomika by pom\u011brn\u011b snadno p\u0159e\u017eila \u00fapln\u00fd rozchod se sv\u00fdm nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edm obchodn\u00edm partnerem, \u010c\u00ednou. (viz <\/span>Studie)<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Studie je velmi kr\u00e1tk\u00e1, pouze 17 stran. Jeho v\u00fdsledky jsou v\u00edce ne\u017e diskutabiln\u00ed, proto\u017ee se zd\u00e1, \u017ee byl p\u0159ipraven z politick\u00fdch d\u016fvod\u016f a ne proto, aby zkoumal skute\u010dn\u00e9 d\u016fsledky rozchodu s \u010c\u00ednou. Je to vid\u011bt nap\u0159\u00edklad na t\u00e9to v\u011bt\u011b ze studie:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eN\u00e1klady na odd\u011blen\u00ed jsou pro \u010c\u00ednu a Rusko v\u017edy dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e pro kteroukoli z\u00e1padn\u00ed zemi, a to jak z kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9ho, tak z dlouhodob\u00e9ho hlediska a v procesu postupn\u00e9ho sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed rizik.<\/em><\/p>\n

V\u011bdeck\u00e1 nebo politick\u00e1 studie?<\/span><\/h3>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee \u201ev\u011bdci\u201c, kte\u0159\u00ed tuto studii p\u0159ipravili, si nev\u0161imli, \u017ee EU trp\u00ed \u201eodpojen\u00edm\u201c od Ruska mnohem v\u00edce ne\u017e samotn\u00e9 Rusko, co\u017e ukazuj\u00ed velmi objektivn\u00ed ekonomick\u00e1 data po t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 dvou letech Ekonomick\u00e1 v\u00e1lka EU proti Rusku.\u00a0<\/span>Ekonomika v Rusku roste<\/span><\/a>, zat\u00edmco v EU stagnuje a N\u011bmecko st\u00e1le rychleji pad\u00e1 do <\/span>de- industrializace<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ekonomick\u00e1 v\u00e1lka proti \u010c\u00edn\u011b bude m\u00edt pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b mnohem dramati\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed d\u016fsledky ne\u017e ekonomick\u00e1 v\u00e1lka proti Rusku, proto\u017ee za prv\u00e9 je \u010c\u00edna nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edm trhem pro mnoho n\u011bmeck\u00fdch a evropsk\u00fdch spole\u010dnost\u00ed, zadruh\u00e9 je \u010c\u00edna tak\u00e9 jedn\u00edm z nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch dodavatel\u016f n\u011bkter\u00fdch vz\u00e1cn\u00fdch surovin a do t\u0159etice komponenty z \u010c\u00edny jsou t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 komoditn\u00ed nenahraditelnou sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed mnoha produkt\u016f n\u011bmeck\u00fdch a evropsk\u00fdch firem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Skute\u010dnost, \u017ee zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e1 studie nezohled\u0148uje tyto slo\u017eit\u00e9 komplikace (a nem\u016f\u017ee tak u\u010dinit na pouh\u00fdch 17 stran\u00e1ch), ukazuje, \u017ee studie je politick\u00fdm d\u00edlem, kter\u00e9 m\u00e1 poskytnout argumenty jest\u0159\u00e1b\u016fm proti\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 politiky. M\u00e1m proto podez\u0159en\u00ed, \u017ee proti\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 s\u00edly v N\u011bmecku a EU se budou v bl\u00edzk\u00e9 budoucnosti na tuto studii odvol\u00e1vat \u010dast\u011bji.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010casto jsem spekuloval, \u017ee Z\u00e1pad veden\u00fd USA se chce ekonomicky, politicky a spole\u010densky odd\u011blit od Ruska a \u010c\u00edny (a mo\u017en\u00e1 i v\u011bt\u0161iny zbytku sv\u011bta). V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Ruska to aktu\u00e1ln\u011b za\u017e\u00edv\u00e1me, proto\u017ee sankce t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 p\u0159eru\u0161ily ekonomick\u00e9 kontakty, politick\u00e9 vztahy s Ruskem jsou ji\u017e mrtv\u00e9 a v Evrop\u011b se tak\u00e9 stav\u00ed nov\u00e1 soci\u00e1ln\u00ed ze\u010f, proto\u017ee EU uzav\u00edr\u00e1 hranice s Ruskem a v\u00edza jsou ji\u017e jen st\u011b\u017e\u00ed dostupn\u00e9 a cestov\u00e1n\u00ed do Ruska je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nemo\u017en\u00e9. M\u00e1m podez\u0159en\u00ed, \u017ee Z\u00e1pad pod veden\u00edm USA brzy pod n\u011bjakou z\u00e1minkou ud\u011bl\u00e1 tot\u00e9\u017e \u010c\u00edn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mnoho lid\u00ed se mi za toto tvrzen\u00ed sm\u00e1lo, ale studie p\u0159esn\u011b to ukazuje. M\u016f\u017eete si tam p\u0159e\u010d\u00edst:<\/span><\/p>\n

„Studie zkoum\u00e1 ekonomick\u00fd dopad tvrd\u00e9ho odd\u011blen\u00ed mezi \u010c\u00ednou a N\u011bmeckem pomoc\u00ed simulace sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e podobn\u00e9ho studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lce 2.0 s fragmentac\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiky.“<\/em><\/p>\n

N\u011bkter\u00e9 titulky Spiegelu z posledn\u00edch n\u011bkolika m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f ukazuj\u00ed, jak d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd je obchod s \u010c\u00ednou pro N\u011bmecko:\u00a0<\/span>\u201eVarov\u00e1n\u00ed odborn\u00edk\u016f \u2013 nebezpe\u010dn\u00e1 z\u00e1vislost EU na \u010c\u00edn\u011b u bateri\u00ed pro e-auta\u201c<\/span><\/a>\u201eLevn\u00e1 elekt\u0159ina \u2013 n\u011bmeck\u00fd sol\u00e1rn\u00ed boom z\u00e1vis\u00ed na poklesu \u010c\u00edny \u2013 m\u016f\u017ee to dob\u0159e fungovat?\u201c<\/a>\u00a0nebo\u00a0<\/span>\u201eNavzdory varov\u00e1n\u00edm o z\u00e1vislosti \u2013 n\u011bmeck\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti st\u00e1le v\u00edce investuj\u00ed v \u010c\u00edn\u011b\u201c<\/span><\/a>,<\/span><\/p>\n

Proto\u017ee v\u011bd\u00ed (ne?), co d\u011blaj\u00ed…<\/span><\/h3>\n

Sankce proti Rusku uk\u00e1zaly, jak dramatick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky m\u011blo, kdy\u017e se EU \u201epouze\u201c vzdala levn\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch zdroj\u016f energie. Plyn, kter\u00fd je nyn\u00ed mnohem dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed, ohrozil \u0159adu pr\u016fmyslov\u00fdch odv\u011btv\u00ed a vede k migraci cel\u00fdch odv\u011btv\u00ed do USA nebo \u010c\u00edny. V d\u016fsledku toho jsou dodavatelsk\u00e9 \u0159et\u011bzce op\u011bt naru\u0161eny a dal\u0161\u00ed pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 odv\u011btv\u00ed za\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed probl\u00e9my.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak dramatick\u00e9 budou d\u016fsledky, pokud v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u201eodd\u011blen\u00ed\u201c od \u010c\u00edny bude mnoho v\u00fdrobk\u016f a surovin chyb\u011bt nebo se v\u00fdrazn\u011b prodra\u017e\u00ed, a jak se maj\u00ed evropsk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti vyrovnat s finan\u010dn\u00edmi d\u016fsledky, pokud budou n\u00e1hle nuceny odej\u00edt \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd trh z politick\u00fdch d\u016fvod\u016f je t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 p\u0159edv\u00eddat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nicm\u00e9n\u011b je t\u0159eba se ob\u00e1vat, \u017ee se to bude takto vyv\u00edjet, proto\u017ee ti, kte\u0159\u00ed v sou\u010dasnosti (ne?) v Berl\u00edn\u011b a Bruselu v\u011bd\u00ed, co d\u011blaj\u00ed…<\/span><\/p>\n

Thomas R\u00f6per<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

V Bruselu a Berl\u00edn\u011b jsou zast\u00e1nci tvrd\u00e9 linie, kte\u0159\u00ed pl\u00e1nuj\u00ed tot\u00e1ln\u00ed obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lku s \u010c\u00ednou….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":10403,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[30,2059,37,365],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42825"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42825"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42825\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10403"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42825"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42825"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42825"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}